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US election poll tracker: Who is ahead - Clinton or Trump? US election poll tracker: Who is ahead - Clinton or Trump?
(about 20 hours later)
Americans will vote on 8 November to choose their next president.Americans will vote on 8 November to choose their next president.
Use our poll tracker to follow the contest between the Democratic contender Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump.Use our poll tracker to follow the contest between the Democratic contender Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump.
Who will win? Play our game to make your call
All you need to know about the US election
US election glossary: A-Z guide to political jargon
How important are national polls?How important are national polls?
It's a tough task to gauge the mood of a nation that is home to more than 300 million people but that doesn't stop the pollsters from trying.It's a tough task to gauge the mood of a nation that is home to more than 300 million people but that doesn't stop the pollsters from trying.
National polls tend to have a sample size of about 1,000 people or more and can track movement and general opinion pretty well.National polls tend to have a sample size of about 1,000 people or more and can track movement and general opinion pretty well.
But the US election is won and lost in swing states and decided by the electoral college system.But the US election is won and lost in swing states and decided by the electoral college system.
This means that polls in states that look like they could vote for either candidate (Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, to name just a few) play an integral role in election projections.This means that polls in states that look like they could vote for either candidate (Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, to name just a few) play an integral role in election projections.
Who is ahead in the battleground states?Who is ahead in the battleground states?
We've identified 13 states that can be considered battlegrounds in this election.We've identified 13 states that can be considered battlegrounds in this election.
The map below shows them and which way they're likely to vote based on data collected by polling resource website Real Clear Politics.The map below shows them and which way they're likely to vote based on data collected by polling resource website Real Clear Politics.
If those states stay the same colour (blue for Clinton, red for Trump) through to election day - and both candidates win the remaining states they are expected to - it would be a clear victory for Hillary Clinton.If those states stay the same colour (blue for Clinton, red for Trump) through to election day - and both candidates win the remaining states they are expected to - it would be a clear victory for Hillary Clinton.
For Donald Trump to have a chance, he needs to turn Florida and Ohio red and win a few others too. As it stands, while Trump is just edging Ohio, but Clinton is leading in Florida.For Donald Trump to have a chance, he needs to turn Florida and Ohio red and win a few others too. As it stands, while Trump is just edging Ohio, but Clinton is leading in Florida.
The latest poll averages in the battleground states are shown in the chart below. Some states are polled more frequently than others; not all the polls below will be showing a result from the same survey period.The latest poll averages in the battleground states are shown in the chart below. Some states are polled more frequently than others; not all the polls below will be showing a result from the same survey period.
How have scandals affected Trump's poll numbers?
Donald Trump has been hit by several scandals since his campaign began. The most notable was the release on 7 October of a video in which he can be heard boasting about sexually assaulting women. He said his comments were "just words" and denied ever having groped a woman - but several have since come forward alleging just that.
This would have been enough to end the campaigns (and political lives) of many candidates, but Mr Trump has survived. Indeed, one CNN poll released on 24 October put him on 45% - exactly the same figure he was on in the previous CNN poll released on 3 October. Both polls had Mrs Clinton leading on 51%.
Mr Trump's ability to continuously poll around 40% nationally while rarely going above 45% has led many analysts to describe his support as having a high floor but a low ceiling. Mr Trump got more primary votes than any Republican in history but the polls show he has struggled to attract voters from outside his large and loyal base.
What are the sexual assault allegations against Trump?
Trump faithful undeterred by polls and scandals
What would a Donald Trump presidency look like?
Are Trump and Clinton the only candidates?Are Trump and Clinton the only candidates?
No. They're the only candidates that stand a real chance of winning the race but there are also third-party and independent candidates in the running.No. They're the only candidates that stand a real chance of winning the race but there are also third-party and independent candidates in the running.
The rules around getting on the ballot differ from state to state but most voters will have two main alternatives to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.The rules around getting on the ballot differ from state to state but most voters will have two main alternatives to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
How does a US presidential election work?How does a US presidential election work?
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 66, is a doctor and activist who is hoping to pick up Democrats who backed Bernie Sanders and continue to rally against Mrs Clinton.Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 66, is a doctor and activist who is hoping to pick up Democrats who backed Bernie Sanders and continue to rally against Mrs Clinton.
Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, 63, is standing for the Libertarian Party and focusing his efforts on attracting Republicans uneasy with Mr Trump.Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, 63, is standing for the Libertarian Party and focusing his efforts on attracting Republicans uneasy with Mr Trump.
According to Real Clear Politics, Mrs Stein is picking up about 2% of the vote in a four-way race while Mr Johnson is faring slightly better at a little more than 7%. Neither can win the race with stats like that, but they could siphon enough voters off the major candidates to change the outcome in a close race. According to Real Clear Politics, Mrs Stein is still picking up about 2% of the vote in a four-way race while Mr Johnson's numbers have dropped slightly since September to about 6%. Neither can win the race with stats like that, but they could siphon enough voters off the major candidates to change the outcome in a close race.
Will third party candidates decide US election?Will third party candidates decide US election?
How are Clinton's numbers looking?
Hillary Clinton has long been the frontrunner in this contest but there have been times where she has looked far from comfortable. The most recent examples came back to back in early September.
First, she made headlines by labelling half of Donald Trump's supporters a "basket of deplorables", allowing her rival to conclude it was evidence of her disdain for "hardworking people".
Then just two days later, Mrs Clinton was filmed fainting after leaving a 9/11 memorial service early. It later emerged she had been suffering from pneumonia, fuelling further rumours about her health - rumours that some of her critics have been pushing for months.
Her poll numbers took a noticeable hit in the days that followed but they appeared to recover towards the end of September.
Will Clinton pay for her terrible weekend?
When was Trump last ahead?
The Republican candidate has made substantial gains on Mrs Clinton since her leads of about 20% in the summer of 2015 (when the field was far wider) but he has only crept ahead of her a few times.
The last came after the Republican National Convention at the end of July when Mr Trump officially accepted the party's nomination.
The lead did not last long, though, with his rival receiving a similar boost to her ratings at the end of the Democratic National Convention a few days later.
What would a Donald Trump presidency look like?
How did the VP picks affect the polls?How did the VP picks affect the polls?
In the past, an astute pick for a candidate's running mate could earn them a double-digit boost in the polls - Bill Clinton got a 12-point bounce after naming Al Gore as his pick for vice-president in 1992.In the past, an astute pick for a candidate's running mate could earn them a double-digit boost in the polls - Bill Clinton got a 12-point bounce after naming Al Gore as his pick for vice-president in 1992.
But in recent years the bounces have been far smaller, and 2016 followed that trend.But in recent years the bounces have been far smaller, and 2016 followed that trend.
Neither Trump's choice of Indiana Governor Mike Pence (15 July), or Clinton's unveiling of ex-Virginian governor Tim Kaine (22 July) changed much in the polls.Neither Trump's choice of Indiana Governor Mike Pence (15 July), or Clinton's unveiling of ex-Virginian governor Tim Kaine (22 July) changed much in the polls.
Who is Mike Pence? | Who is Tim Kaine?Who is Mike Pence? | Who is Tim Kaine?