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US election poll tracker: Who is ahead - Clinton or Trump? | US election poll tracker: Who is ahead - Clinton or Trump? |
(6 days later) | |
Voters in the US will vote on 8 November to decide who will be the country's next president. | Voters in the US will vote on 8 November to decide who will be the country's next president. |
Use our poll tracker to follow the contest between the Democratic contender Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump. | Use our poll tracker to follow the contest between the Democratic contender Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump. |
How important are national polls? | How important are national polls? |
It's a tough task to gauge the mood of a nation that is home to more than 300 million people, but that doesn't stop the pollsters from trying. | It's a tough task to gauge the mood of a nation that is home to more than 300 million people, but that doesn't stop the pollsters from trying. |
National polls tend to have a sample size of about 1,000 people or more and can track movement and general opinion pretty well. | National polls tend to have a sample size of about 1,000 people or more and can track movement and general opinion pretty well. |
But the US election is won and lost in swing states and decided by the electoral college system (What is the electoral college?). | But the US election is won and lost in swing states and decided by the electoral college system (What is the electoral college?). |
This means that polls in states that look like they could vote for either candidate (Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania to name just a few) play an integral role in election projections. | This means that polls in states that look like they could vote for either candidate (Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania to name just a few) play an integral role in election projections. |
What are the polls like in battleground states? | What are the polls like in battleground states? |
We've identified 13 states that can be considered battlegrounds in this election. | We've identified 13 states that can be considered battlegrounds in this election. |
The map below shows them and which way they're likely to vote based on data collected by polling resource website Real Clear Politics. | The map below shows them and which way they're likely to vote based on data collected by polling resource website Real Clear Politics. |
If those states stay the same colour (blue for Clinton, red for Trump) through to election day - and both candidates win the remaining states they are expected to - it would be a clear victory for Hillary Clinton. | If those states stay the same colour (blue for Clinton, red for Trump) through to election day - and both candidates win the remaining states they are expected to - it would be a clear victory for Hillary Clinton. |
For Donald Trump to have a chance, he needs to turn Florida and Ohio red and win a few others too. As it stands, Clinton is ahead by a pretty small margin in both Florida and Ohio. | For Donald Trump to have a chance, he needs to turn Florida and Ohio red and win a few others too. As it stands, Clinton is ahead by a pretty small margin in both Florida and Ohio. |
The latest poll averages in the battleground states are shown in the chart below. Some states are polled more frequently than others; not all the polls below will be showing a result from the same survey period. | The latest poll averages in the battleground states are shown in the chart below. Some states are polled more frequently than others; not all the polls below will be showing a result from the same survey period. |
Are Trump and Clinton the only candidates? | Are Trump and Clinton the only candidates? |
No. They're the only candidates that stand a real chance of winning the race, but there are other third-party and independent candidates in the running. | No. They're the only candidates that stand a real chance of winning the race, but there are other third-party and independent candidates in the running. |
The rules around getting on the ballot differ state to state, but most voters will have two main alternatives to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. | The rules around getting on the ballot differ state to state, but most voters will have two main alternatives to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. |
How does a US presidential election work? | How does a US presidential election work? |
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 66, is a doctor and activist who is hoping to pick up Democrats who backed Bernie Sanders and continue to rally against Mrs Clinton. | Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 66, is a doctor and activist who is hoping to pick up Democrats who backed Bernie Sanders and continue to rally against Mrs Clinton. |
Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, 63, is standing for the Libertarian Party and focusing his efforts on attracting Republicans uneasy with Mr Trump. | Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, 63, is standing for the Libertarian Party and focusing his efforts on attracting Republicans uneasy with Mr Trump. |
According to Real Clear Politics, Mrs Stein is picking up about 2% of the vote in a four-way race while Mr Johnson is fairing slightly better at a little more than 7%. Neither can win the race with stats like that, but they could siphon enough voters off of the major candidates to change the outcome in a close race. | According to Real Clear Politics, Mrs Stein is picking up about 2% of the vote in a four-way race while Mr Johnson is fairing slightly better at a little more than 7%. Neither can win the race with stats like that, but they could siphon enough voters off of the major candidates to change the outcome in a close race. |
Will third party candidates decide US election? | Will third party candidates decide US election? |
How are Clinton's numbers looking? | How are Clinton's numbers looking? |
Hillary Clinton has long been the frontrunner in this contest but there have been times where she has looked far from comfortable. The most recent examples came back-to-back in early September. | Hillary Clinton has long been the frontrunner in this contest but there have been times where she has looked far from comfortable. The most recent examples came back-to-back in early September. |
First, she made headlines by labelling half of Donald Trump's supporters a "basket of deplorables", allowing her rival to conclude it was evidence of her disdain for "hardworking people". | First, she made headlines by labelling half of Donald Trump's supporters a "basket of deplorables", allowing her rival to conclude it was evidence of her disdain for "hardworking people". |
Then just two days later, Mrs Clinton was filmed fainting after leaving a 9/11 memorial service early. It later emerged she had been suffering from pneumonia fuelling further rumours about her health - rumours that some of her critics have been pushing for months. | Then just two days later, Mrs Clinton was filmed fainting after leaving a 9/11 memorial service early. It later emerged she had been suffering from pneumonia fuelling further rumours about her health - rumours that some of her critics have been pushing for months. |
Her poll numbers took a noticeable hit in the days that followed, but they appeared to recover towards the end of September. | Her poll numbers took a noticeable hit in the days that followed, but they appeared to recover towards the end of September. |
Will Clinton pay for her terrible weekend? | Will Clinton pay for her terrible weekend? |
When was Trump last ahead? | When was Trump last ahead? |
The Republican candidate has made substantial gains on Mrs Clinton since her leads of about 20% in the summer of 2015 (when the field was far wider) but he has only crept ahead of her a few times. | The Republican candidate has made substantial gains on Mrs Clinton since her leads of about 20% in the summer of 2015 (when the field was far wider) but he has only crept ahead of her a few times. |
The last came after the Republican National Convention at the end of July when Mr Trump officially accepted the party's nomination. | The last came after the Republican National Convention at the end of July when Mr Trump officially accepted the party's nomination. |
The lead didn't last long though, with his rival receiving a similar boost to her ratings at the end of the Democratic National Convention a few days later. | The lead didn't last long though, with his rival receiving a similar boost to her ratings at the end of the Democratic National Convention a few days later. |
What would a Donald Trump presidency look like? | What would a Donald Trump presidency look like? |
How did the VP picks affect the polls? | How did the VP picks affect the polls? |
In the past, an astute pick for a candidate's running mate could earn them a double-digit boost in the polls - Bill Clinton got a 12-point bounce after naming Al Gore as his pick for vice-president in 1992. | In the past, an astute pick for a candidate's running mate could earn them a double-digit boost in the polls - Bill Clinton got a 12-point bounce after naming Al Gore as his pick for vice-president in 1992. |
But in recent years the bounces have been far smaller and 2016 followed that trend. | But in recent years the bounces have been far smaller and 2016 followed that trend. |
Neither Trump's choice of Indiana Governor Mike Pence (15 July), or Clinton's unveiling of ex-Virginian governor Tim Kaine (22 July) changed much in the polls. | Neither Trump's choice of Indiana Governor Mike Pence (15 July), or Clinton's unveiling of ex-Virginian governor Tim Kaine (22 July) changed much in the polls. |
Who is Mike Pence? | Who is Tim Kaine? | Who is Mike Pence? | Who is Tim Kaine? |