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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| WTO cuts trade forecast by a third | WTO cuts trade forecast by a third |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The World Trade Organization has cut its forecast for global trade growth this year by more than a third. | The World Trade Organization has cut its forecast for global trade growth this year by more than a third. |
| The new figure of 1.7%, down from its April estimate of 2.8%, would be the slowest pace of trade and output growth since the 2009 financial crisis. | The new figure of 1.7%, down from its April estimate of 2.8%, would be the slowest pace of trade and output growth since the 2009 financial crisis. |
| It is also the first time in 15 years that international commerce has been left trailing behind the world economy. | It is also the first time in 15 years that international commerce has been left trailing behind the world economy. |
| The downturn reflects the slowdown in countries such as China and Brazil and lower levels of imports into the US. | The downturn reflects the slowdown in countries such as China and Brazil and lower levels of imports into the US. |
| Trade has grown 1.5 times faster than gross domestic product over the long term - but the WTO say it will only grow 80% as fast this year. | Trade has grown 1.5 times faster than gross domestic product over the long term - but the WTO say it will only grow 80% as fast this year. |
| That would be the first reversal of globalisation since 2001 and only the second time this has happened since 1982. | That would be the first reversal of globalisation since 2001 and only the second time this has happened since 1982. |
| WTO director-general Roberto Azevedo said: "The dramatic slowing of trade growth is serious and should serve as a wake-up call. | WTO director-general Roberto Azevedo said: "The dramatic slowing of trade growth is serious and should serve as a wake-up call. |
| "It is particularly concerning in the context of growing anti-globalisation sentiment. | "It is particularly concerning in the context of growing anti-globalisation sentiment. |
| "We need to make sure that this does not translate into misguided policies that could make the situation much worse - not only from the perspective of trade, but also for job creation and economic growth and development, which are so closely linked to an open trading system." | "We need to make sure that this does not translate into misguided policies that could make the situation much worse - not only from the perspective of trade, but also for job creation and economic growth and development, which are so closely linked to an open trading system." |
| UK referendum | |
| The WTO's biggest downward revision to imports from its April forecast came in South America (-4.5% to -8.3%), the US (4.1% to 1.9%) and Asia (3.2% to 1.6%), but it predicted European imports would rise to 3.7% from 3.2%. | |
| It added that the UK referendum result did not lead to an obvious downturn in economic activity, with its main impact being a drop in the value of the pound against the dollar and the euro. | |
| It forecasts that growth will slow down in the UK in 2017, but that the country will not fall into recession. |