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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| Mario Draghi hints eurozone stimulus will last - business live | Mario Draghi hints eurozone stimulus will last - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.20am GMT | |
| 09:20 | |
| Here is what Draghi had to say on eurozone inflation: | |
| Despite the recovery in growth and employment, the persisting output gap is still keeping inflation dynamics weak. The October inflation rate stood at 0.5%. While this marks the highest level recorded in almost two years, it remains far below the ECB’s objective [of below, but close to 2%]. | |
| And while we expect headline inflation to continue rising over the coming months, much of this increase will be driven by statistical factors related to the mechanical unwinding of the extreme oil price declines a year ago. We do not yet see a consistent strengthening of underlying price dynamics. | |
| Draghi said recovery in the eurozone’s economy was still underpinned by support from the central bank: | |
| The euro area recovery still relies to a considerable degree on accommodative monetary policy. The recovery in credit is being facilitated by a more resilient banking sector, but the impetus comes from our monetary policy. | |
| The eurozone’s economy grew by 2% in 2015, and the International Monetary Fund is predicting growth of 1.7% this year followed by 1.5% in 2017. | |
| 9.04am GMT | |
| 09:04 | |
| Draghi’s speech strikes a decidedly dovish and cautious note. He suggests that while the eurozone is in reasonable shape, key risks to the recovery remain. | |
| We have ... every reason to be more confident in the strength of the recovery than we were one year ago. But we cannot be sanguine over the economic outlook. | |
| Besides the geopolitical risks that remain prevalent, there are indeed three factors that warrant caution: the profitability of euro area banks, the relative weakness of inflation dynamics, and the dependence of the recovery on accommodative monetary policy. | |
| Draghi: 3 factors warrant caution: bank profitability, relative weakness of inflation dynamics and dependence of recovery on monetary policy | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.05am GMT | |
| 8.40am GMT | 8.40am GMT |
| 08:40 | 08:40 |
| Mario Draghi: ECB stimulus will last | Mario Draghi: ECB stimulus will last |
| Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, has given a clear signal that policymakers will continue to support the eurozone economy with monetary stimulus. | Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, has given a clear signal that policymakers will continue to support the eurozone economy with monetary stimulus. |
| Giving a keynote speech at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Draghi said policy would remain lose amid weak inflationary pressures. | Giving a keynote speech at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Draghi said policy would remain lose amid weak inflationary pressures. |
| Even if there are many encouraging trends in the euro area economy, the recovery remains highly reliant on a constellation of financing conditions that, in turn, depend on continued monetary support. | Even if there are many encouraging trends in the euro area economy, the recovery remains highly reliant on a constellation of financing conditions that, in turn, depend on continued monetary support. |
| The ECB will continue to act, as warranted, by using all the instruments available within our mandate to secure a sustained convergence of inflation towards a level below, but close to 2%. | The ECB will continue to act, as warranted, by using all the instruments available within our mandate to secure a sustained convergence of inflation towards a level below, but close to 2%. |
| 8.27am GMT | 8.27am GMT |
| 08:27 | 08:27 |
| European markets are mixed in early trading | European markets are mixed in early trading |
| The FTSE 100 is slightly down in early trading, after closing up 45 points or 0.7% on Thursday. | The FTSE 100 is slightly down in early trading, after closing up 45 points or 0.7% on Thursday. |
| Elsewhere in Europe, markets are mixed. Nerves persist in Italy, where bond yields are sharply higher as political concerns rise to the fore ahead of next month’s referendum. | Elsewhere in Europe, markets are mixed. Nerves persist in Italy, where bond yields are sharply higher as political concerns rise to the fore ahead of next month’s referendum. |
| The scores so far: | The scores so far: |
| 8.18am GMT | 8.18am GMT |
| 08:18 | 08:18 |
| Holger Schmieding, economist at the German bank Berenberg, says the ECB won’t be in any hurry to follow the Fed and tighten monetary policy. | Holger Schmieding, economist at the German bank Berenberg, says the ECB won’t be in any hurry to follow the Fed and tighten monetary policy. |
| Pundits including us expect the ECB to prolong its current €80 billion monthly asset purchases by at least three and more likely six months beyond March 2017 before finally starting to taper, announcing that decision to extend purchases at its 8 December meeting. | Pundits including us expect the ECB to prolong its current €80 billion monthly asset purchases by at least three and more likely six months beyond March 2017 before finally starting to taper, announcing that decision to extend purchases at its 8 December meeting. |
| In addition, the ECB will likely make some technical changes to its programme to broaden the scope of eligible (German) paper without changing the capital key distribution of purchases or breaking new ground by venturing into purchases of major new asset classes such as bank bonds or equities. | In addition, the ECB will likely make some technical changes to its programme to broaden the scope of eligible (German) paper without changing the capital key distribution of purchases or breaking new ground by venturing into purchases of major new asset classes such as bank bonds or equities. |
| 8.15am GMT | 8.15am GMT |
| 08:15 | 08:15 |
| The euro against the dollar over the past year: | The euro against the dollar over the past year: |
| 8.01am GMT | 8.01am GMT |
| 08:01 | 08:01 |
| The agenda: euro in record losing streak as markets await Draghi speech | The agenda: euro in record losing streak as markets await Draghi speech |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| The dollar’s gain is the euro’s loss, with strength in the US currency pushing the euro below $1.06 for the first time in almost a year. It is currently trading at $1.0596. | The dollar’s gain is the euro’s loss, with strength in the US currency pushing the euro below $1.06 for the first time in almost a year. It is currently trading at $1.0596. |
| The single’s bloc’s currency is suffering its longest run of losses since 1999, when it first launch as an accounting currency, according to the FT’s analysis of Bloomberg data. | The single’s bloc’s currency is suffering its longest run of losses since 1999, when it first launch as an accounting currency, according to the FT’s analysis of Bloomberg data. |
| The dollar’s latest boost comes from Janet Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve, who hinted to Congress on Thursday that another rate hike in December was on the cards. | The dollar’s latest boost comes from Janet Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve, who hinted to Congress on Thursday that another rate hike in December was on the cards. |
| Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, is due to give a speech in Frankfurt shortly. Investors will listen closely for his views on the current outlook for the eurozone, and any hints on possible changes to monetary policy. | Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, is due to give a speech in Frankfurt shortly. Investors will listen closely for his views on the current outlook for the eurozone, and any hints on possible changes to monetary policy. |