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| Italy referendum: Matteo Renzi to resign after defeat as Austria rejects far right – live | Italy referendum: Matteo Renzi to resign after defeat as Austria rejects far right – live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 3.50am GMT | |
| 03:50 | |
| Italy referendum result: no wins with 59.26% | |
| With all the votes counted within Italy (counting of overseas ballots is not yet complete, and those tend towards yes, so the percentage might shift a little, but won’t change the outcome), here’s how the result stands, on a turnout of 68.48%: | |
| A thumping defeat for Renzi. | |
| Updated | |
| at 3.51am GMT | |
| 3.34am GMT | |
| 03:34 | |
| Nigel Farage’s dabbling in Austria’s election has earned him a rebuke from the party he had backed to win the presidency. | |
| The former Ukip leader had claimed far-right candidate Norbert Hofer would call a Brexit-style referendum for Austria to leave the EU – something the candidate himself had explicitly ruled out: | |
| It is not something I want. We need to build a stronger union. | |
| Farage also told Fox News host Sean Hannity last week: | |
| I would put my money on the Freedom party’s Mr Hofer winning that election. | |
| Hofer lost the vote to former Greens leader turned independent Alexander Van der Bellen, and labelled Farage’s comments a “crass misjudgment”, adding: | |
| It doesn’t fill me with joy when someone meddles from outside. | |
| After the results became clear on Sunday night, Anton Mahdalik, a Freedom party member of Vienna city council, also criticised Farage’s referendum claim: | |
| That didn’t help us, it hindered us. | |
| 3.13am GMT | 3.13am GMT |
| 03:13 | 03:13 |
| One name in the frame as a potential successor to Matteo Renzi in Italy is Pier Carlo Padoan, currently the country’s finance minister. | One name in the frame as a potential successor to Matteo Renzi in Italy is Pier Carlo Padoan, currently the country’s finance minister. |
| Asked on Friday about his future plans, Padoan told Italy’s Sky TG24: | Asked on Friday about his future plans, Padoan told Italy’s Sky TG24: |
| Of course, it will be up to the new government – if there will be a new one, which I don’t think will be the case – to decide its composition. | Of course, it will be up to the new government – if there will be a new one, which I don’t think will be the case – to decide its composition. |
| The culture minister, Dario Franceschini, and Pietro Grasso – current Senate president, and briefly acting president of Italy until Sergio Mattarella’s swearing-in – have also been touted as possible caretaker leaders. | The culture minister, Dario Franceschini, and Pietro Grasso – current Senate president, and briefly acting president of Italy until Sergio Mattarella’s swearing-in – have also been touted as possible caretaker leaders. |
| It will be up to Mattarella to appoint a new prime minister once Renzi formally submits his resignation on Monday. | It will be up to Mattarella to appoint a new prime minister once Renzi formally submits his resignation on Monday. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.17am GMT | at 3.17am GMT |
| 2.52am GMT | 2.52am GMT |
| 02:52 | 02:52 |
| What was Italy's referendum about? | What was Italy's referendum about? |
| It will be hard, as the dust settles, to escape the Brexit prism through which many across Europe will view the Italian vote. | It will be hard, as the dust settles, to escape the Brexit prism through which many across Europe will view the Italian vote. |
| But what was the referendum actually about? Stephanie Kirchgaessner explains: | But what was the referendum actually about? Stephanie Kirchgaessner explains: |
| The reforms, which would have affected a third of the Italian constitution, had already been approved by parliament but by a slim margin, thus requiring that they also be passed by referendum. | The reforms, which would have affected a third of the Italian constitution, had already been approved by parliament but by a slim margin, thus requiring that they also be passed by referendum. |
| Under the current system, which was created under Italy’s 1948 constitution, there are two chambers of parliament with directly elected lawmakers, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Both chambers have equal power – it’s known as “perfect bicameralism” – and both must agree on legislation before it is passed. This means, put simply, that it can take a very long time for things to get done. For example, a law to give children born out of wedlock the same rights as children of married couples took nearly 1,300 days to be approved. | Under the current system, which was created under Italy’s 1948 constitution, there are two chambers of parliament with directly elected lawmakers, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Both chambers have equal power – it’s known as “perfect bicameralism” – and both must agree on legislation before it is passed. This means, put simply, that it can take a very long time for things to get done. For example, a law to give children born out of wedlock the same rights as children of married couples took nearly 1,300 days to be approved. |
| Under the proposed reforms, the Senate would have lost almost all its power – the number of senators would have been reduced from 315 to 100, and the remaining senators would no longer be elected directly. Instead, the 100 would have been made up of lawmakers selected by regional assemblies. Some mayors would also serve as senators. | Under the proposed reforms, the Senate would have lost almost all its power – the number of senators would have been reduced from 315 to 100, and the remaining senators would no longer be elected directly. Instead, the 100 would have been made up of lawmakers selected by regional assemblies. Some mayors would also serve as senators. |
| That would have meant that most laws could be passed, including Italy’s budget, by the Chamber of Deputies without consulting the Senate. The Senate would only have had the power to weigh in on big issues such as other constitutional reforms and the ratification of EU treaties. | That would have meant that most laws could be passed, including Italy’s budget, by the Chamber of Deputies without consulting the Senate. The Senate would only have had the power to weigh in on big issues such as other constitutional reforms and the ratification of EU treaties. |
| Some, but not all, constitutional experts believed the changes were essentially a power grab that would have made Renzi, or whoever was sitting in Palazzo Chigi, much more powerful. They argued that the changes would obliterate the delicate balance of power that was designed in 1948 by people who had witnessed the rise of fascism. | Some, but not all, constitutional experts believed the changes were essentially a power grab that would have made Renzi, or whoever was sitting in Palazzo Chigi, much more powerful. They argued that the changes would obliterate the delicate balance of power that was designed in 1948 by people who had witnessed the rise of fascism. |
| All of Renzi’s political opponents on the left and the right were aligned against the constitutional reforms, in large part because they wanted to force his resignation. | All of Renzi’s political opponents on the left and the right were aligned against the constitutional reforms, in large part because they wanted to force his resignation. |
| 2.22am GMT | 2.22am GMT |
| 02:22 | 02:22 |
| With 98% of votes tallied in Italy, it does look as if the ‘no’ vote is holding on to its near-20 percentage point lead, heading ‘yes’ by 59.61% to 40.39%. | With 98% of votes tallied in Italy, it does look as if the ‘no’ vote is holding on to its near-20 percentage point lead, heading ‘yes’ by 59.61% to 40.39%. |
| Interestingly, as the Sky News tweet notes, ‘yes’ votes were in the majority among overseas voters – according to this official count by 65.2% to 34.7% so far – and in three Italian regions: Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna (by a whisker) and Tuscany. | Interestingly, as the Sky News tweet notes, ‘yes’ votes were in the majority among overseas voters – according to this official count by 65.2% to 34.7% so far – and in three Italian regions: Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna (by a whisker) and Tuscany. |
| Scrutinio al 98%: il No al 59,6%, il Sì al 40,4%. Il Sì prevale all'estero e in tre regioni: https://t.co/ckK4Nq5S0o. #SkyReferendum pic.twitter.com/h6eCKjHnaV | Scrutinio al 98%: il No al 59,6%, il Sì al 40,4%. Il Sì prevale all'estero e in tre regioni: https://t.co/ckK4Nq5S0o. #SkyReferendum pic.twitter.com/h6eCKjHnaV |
| 1.55am GMT | 1.55am GMT |
| 01:55 | 01:55 |
| Martin Farrer | Martin Farrer |
| Market reaction to the Italian referendum result has been muted by comparison with the ups and downs in the hours and days after the Brexit and Trump votes. | Market reaction to the Italian referendum result has been muted by comparison with the ups and downs in the hours and days after the Brexit and Trump votes. |
| Shares are down across most Asian markets: | Shares are down across most Asian markets: |
| In futures trading, the FTSE100 is expected to dip 0.68% at the open while the Dow Jones average on Wall Street is set to fall 0.18%. | In futures trading, the FTSE100 is expected to dip 0.68% at the open while the Dow Jones average on Wall Street is set to fall 0.18%. |
| The euro has slipped to a 20-month low of 1.0575 against the US dollar. | The euro has slipped to a 20-month low of 1.0575 against the US dollar. |
| However, most reaction seems to agree that the biggest issue is the future of Italy’s fragile banking system. | However, most reaction seems to agree that the biggest issue is the future of Italy’s fragile banking system. |
| The referendum was meant to smooth this week’s intended refinancing of Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s third-largest bank, which needs to raise an extra €5bn in capital and sell off €28bn of bad loans. But the political uncertainty set off by the referendum result will make it more difficult to secure that funding and condemn Italy’s already moribund economy to more months of stagnation. | The referendum was meant to smooth this week’s intended refinancing of Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s third-largest bank, which needs to raise an extra €5bn in capital and sell off €28bn of bad loans. But the political uncertainty set off by the referendum result will make it more difficult to secure that funding and condemn Italy’s already moribund economy to more months of stagnation. |
| Minori Uchida, chief currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in Tokyo, told Reuters: | Minori Uchida, chief currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in Tokyo, told Reuters: |
| The ‘no’ vote was priced in to a certain extent in advance. So I do not expect a freefall in the euro in the near term. | The ‘no’ vote was priced in to a certain extent in advance. So I do not expect a freefall in the euro in the near term. |
| But in the long run, this will delay progress in Italy’s efforts to get rid of banks’ bad debt and is likely to widen the yield spread of German [and Italian bonds]. | But in the long run, this will delay progress in Italy’s efforts to get rid of banks’ bad debt and is likely to widen the yield spread of German [and Italian bonds]. |
| 1.45am GMT | 1.45am GMT |
| 01:45 | 01:45 |
| Working out what the message voters wanted to send in Italy will not be straightforward, Stephanie Kirchgaessner reports from Rome: | Working out what the message voters wanted to send in Italy will not be straightforward, Stephanie Kirchgaessner reports from Rome: |
| It was clear from the high voter turnout – 68% of eligible voters cast ballots on Sunday – that Italians were indeed sending a message to the political establishment in Rome. But deciphering that message will not be easy, despite celebratory claims from Europe’s far right. | It was clear from the high voter turnout – 68% of eligible voters cast ballots on Sunday – that Italians were indeed sending a message to the political establishment in Rome. But deciphering that message will not be easy, despite celebratory claims from Europe’s far right. |
| Italy is facing a number of big issues that were not technically on the ballot: a migration crisis in which the country feels abandoned by Europe; an unresolved banking crisis; steep unemployment and a debt load of 132% of GDP with no solution in sight. | Italy is facing a number of big issues that were not technically on the ballot: a migration crisis in which the country feels abandoned by Europe; an unresolved banking crisis; steep unemployment and a debt load of 132% of GDP with no solution in sight. |
| The fact is that Renzi’s defeat was almost a foregone conclusion give the scale of the opposition he faced, and not just from Northern League leader Matteo Salvini and Beppe Grillo, the bombastic former comedian and head of the Five Star Movement. But even from within the Democratic party and leftwing voters who defied the prime minister for a whole host of reasons, including a former prime minister, Mario Monti. | The fact is that Renzi’s defeat was almost a foregone conclusion give the scale of the opposition he faced, and not just from Northern League leader Matteo Salvini and Beppe Grillo, the bombastic former comedian and head of the Five Star Movement. But even from within the Democratic party and leftwing voters who defied the prime minister for a whole host of reasons, including a former prime minister, Mario Monti. |
| While Salvini and M5S officials have touted the win as a major victory for their causes – they are not totally aligned but are vehemently opposed to the euro and the EU generally – it is clear that many Italians who voted no would not necessarily support either party in a general election. | While Salvini and M5S officials have touted the win as a major victory for their causes – they are not totally aligned but are vehemently opposed to the euro and the EU generally – it is clear that many Italians who voted no would not necessarily support either party in a general election. |
| Indeed, some were indifferent to Renzi’s fate but believed the rise of populism made proposed changes to the constitution especially dangerous. | Indeed, some were indifferent to Renzi’s fate but believed the rise of populism made proposed changes to the constitution especially dangerous. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.49am GMT | at 1.49am GMT |
| 1.32am GMT | 1.32am GMT |
| 01:32 | 01:32 |
| While defeat for Renzi’s proposal was not unexpected in Italy, the size of the ‘no’ victory has exceeded most predictions. | While defeat for Renzi’s proposal was not unexpected in Italy, the size of the ‘no’ victory has exceeded most predictions. |
| As the Financial Times’ bureau chief in Rome notes: | As the Financial Times’ bureau chief in Rome notes: |
| There was actually a massive polling miss in the Italian referendum. He was behind 5-7 pp in the polls, will end up losing by nearly 20pp | There was actually a massive polling miss in the Italian referendum. He was behind 5-7 pp in the polls, will end up losing by nearly 20pp |
| The current tally has ‘yes’ on 40.28%; ‘no’ on 59.72%. | The current tally has ‘yes’ on 40.28%; ‘no’ on 59.72%. |
| 1.22am GMT | 1.22am GMT |
| 01:22 | 01:22 |
| Monday’s Guardian front page leads on news from Italy and Renzi’s departure: | Monday’s Guardian front page leads on news from Italy and Renzi’s departure: |
| Guardian front page, Monday 5 December 2016: Italy reels after referendum defeat forces Renzi to resign pic.twitter.com/rWZAAYXCtc | Guardian front page, Monday 5 December 2016: Italy reels after referendum defeat forces Renzi to resign pic.twitter.com/rWZAAYXCtc |
| 1.13am GMT | 1.13am GMT |
| 01:13 | 01:13 |
| After a tumultuous night in Italy, Matteo Renzi will on Monday head to the Quirinal palace to submit his resignation to president Sergio Mattarella. | After a tumultuous night in Italy, Matteo Renzi will on Monday head to the Quirinal palace to submit his resignation to president Sergio Mattarella. |
| It is 14 months until the next elections are due, and it’s expected that Mattarella will attempt to pull together a caretaker prime minister – likely from from Renzi’s Democratic party – to serve until the February 2018 vote. | It is 14 months until the next elections are due, and it’s expected that Mattarella will attempt to pull together a caretaker prime minister – likely from from Renzi’s Democratic party – to serve until the February 2018 vote. |
| The populist Five Star Movement and the anti-immigrant Northern League want early elections – but have no power to make that happen. | The populist Five Star Movement and the anti-immigrant Northern League want early elections – but have no power to make that happen. |
| Forza Italia, the right-wing party led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi (yes, him), is less keen on a snap poll, Buzzfeed’s Alberto Nardelli says: | Forza Italia, the right-wing party led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi (yes, him), is less keen on a snap poll, Buzzfeed’s Alberto Nardelli says: |
| Italian politics: Forza Italia's Brunetta saying he doesn't want snap elections. Of course he doesn't. Forza Italia would be annihilated. | Italian politics: Forza Italia's Brunetta saying he doesn't want snap elections. Of course he doesn't. Forza Italia would be annihilated. |