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Italy referendum: 'Period of uncertainty' predicted after Matteo Renzi's defeat – live | Italy referendum: 'Period of uncertainty' predicted after Matteo Renzi's defeat – live |
(35 minutes later) | |
1.03pm GMT | |
13:03 | |
Stephanie Kirchgaessner | |
Matteo Renzi is preparing to formally submit his resignation before Italy’s president, writes Stephanie Kirchgaessner in her latest roundup from Rome. | |
Renzi conceded shortly after midnight on Monday and is expected to head to the presidential palace, the Quirinale, on Monday afternoon. | |
The anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Northern League quickly sought to capitalise on Renzi’s defeat and say they want snap elections, even before a planned reform of electoral laws is to go ahead. | |
Luigi Di Maio, one of the M5S’s rising stars, declared that the populist movement was ready to create the future government, while the xenophobic Northern League head, Matteo Salvini, said his fringe party – which has its roots in secessionism – ought to be considered a “serious alternative”. Salvini called the result – and the strong showing of the far right Austrian party in elections yesterday, which it ultimately lost – a clash of “all against one”. | |
12.35pm GMT | 12.35pm GMT |
12:35 | 12:35 |
Theres’ no need to panic or hyperventilate argues analyst Vincenzo Scarpetta. In a blogpost for the Open Europe thinktank he writes: | Theres’ no need to panic or hyperventilate argues analyst Vincenzo Scarpetta. In a blogpost for the Open Europe thinktank he writes: |
European politics is slightly more complex than dominos. What took place in Italy yesterday was neither a general election nor a referendum on the single currency. Either would likely be a different proposition. The ‘No’ camp was a very broad church. This makes me wary of describing the result simply as ‘Renzi being brought down by the populist wave’ – unless we want to describe Mario Monti or former Italian Constitutional Court President Valerio Onida (to mention but two examples) as populists for being against the reform. | European politics is slightly more complex than dominos. What took place in Italy yesterday was neither a general election nor a referendum on the single currency. Either would likely be a different proposition. The ‘No’ camp was a very broad church. This makes me wary of describing the result simply as ‘Renzi being brought down by the populist wave’ – unless we want to describe Mario Monti or former Italian Constitutional Court President Valerio Onida (to mention but two examples) as populists for being against the reform. |
There was certainly an anti-establishment (and anti-Renzi) element involved, but one should also bear in mind that – beyond the headlines and the slogans – the proposed constitutional changes did raise some genuine issues and proved more controversial than many seem to appreciate. | There was certainly an anti-establishment (and anti-Renzi) element involved, but one should also bear in mind that – beyond the headlines and the slogans – the proposed constitutional changes did raise some genuine issues and proved more controversial than many seem to appreciate. |
Undeniably, Renzi’s resignation opens a period of greater political fluidity during which the reform process in Italy will slow down – and that will be regarded as bad news in Brussels, Berlin, and other European capitals. However, as I already wrote last week, the framework is completely different from late 2011 and there are simply too many unknowns at this stage to predict – as some are doing – that the next Italian general election will certainly open the door to an anti-euro government in the Eurozone’s third-largest country. | Undeniably, Renzi’s resignation opens a period of greater political fluidity during which the reform process in Italy will slow down – and that will be regarded as bad news in Brussels, Berlin, and other European capitals. However, as I already wrote last week, the framework is completely different from late 2011 and there are simply too many unknowns at this stage to predict – as some are doing – that the next Italian general election will certainly open the door to an anti-euro government in the Eurozone’s third-largest country. |
12.09pm GMT | 12.09pm GMT |
12:09 | 12:09 |
Here’s a roundup of the latest on Italy’s referendum and its aftermath: | Here’s a roundup of the latest on Italy’s referendum and its aftermath: |
11.41am GMT | 11.41am GMT |
11:41 | 11:41 |
More brave faces have been put on Italy referendum’s from the European establishment. | More brave faces have been put on Italy referendum’s from the European establishment. |
In unstable times, crucial to revive the European spirit w/ leadership, courage to reform & find common solutions to our problems #italy | In unstable times, crucial to revive the European spirit w/ leadership, courage to reform & find common solutions to our problems #italy |
Referendum hasn't changed situation with Italian banks @J_Dijsselbloem. 'Problems we had yesterday are the same problems we have today' | Referendum hasn't changed situation with Italian banks @J_Dijsselbloem. 'Problems we had yesterday are the same problems we have today' |
"L'#Italie un pays solide, un pays ancré dans la construction européenne"-@MichelSapin pic.twitter.com/Y6n88qX5kf | "L'#Italie un pays solide, un pays ancré dans la construction européenne"-@MichelSapin pic.twitter.com/Y6n88qX5kf |
#Italie #Autriche #Grèce Retrouvez le TEXTE des déclarations de @MichelSapin avant la réunion de l'Eurogroupe ici>https://t.co/ebyYOGw2YQ pic.twitter.com/AZB3PzXWSB | #Italie #Autriche #Grèce Retrouvez le TEXTE des déclarations de @MichelSapin avant la réunion de l'Eurogroupe ici>https://t.co/ebyYOGw2YQ pic.twitter.com/AZB3PzXWSB |
11.33am GMT | 11.33am GMT |
11:33 | 11:33 |
The Markets expected Renzi to be defeated in the referendum so priced in the outcome, according to Reuters. But they were surprised by the scale of the defeat hence the initial fall in the value of the euro. | The Markets expected Renzi to be defeated in the referendum so priced in the outcome, according to Reuters. But they were surprised by the scale of the defeat hence the initial fall in the value of the euro. |
11.22am GMT | 11.22am GMT |
11:22 | 11:22 |
Luigi Scazzieri, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, argues that the vote is unlikely to lead of more instability in Europe. Writing for the Guardian’s Opinion section he says: | Luigi Scazzieri, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, argues that the vote is unlikely to lead of more instability in Europe. Writing for the Guardian’s Opinion section he says: |
A new government would likely be made up of the same political majority currently supporting Renzi, with the possible addition of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party. It would face the same challenges and would continue to act in much the same way, steering the country towards new elections in late 2017 or 2018 and pursuing the stony path of incremental economic reform. Indeed, while Renzi sought to portray the reforms as a make or break moment for Italy, the economic reforms of the past five years are not about to be undone. | A new government would likely be made up of the same political majority currently supporting Renzi, with the possible addition of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party. It would face the same challenges and would continue to act in much the same way, steering the country towards new elections in late 2017 or 2018 and pursuing the stony path of incremental economic reform. Indeed, while Renzi sought to portray the reforms as a make or break moment for Italy, the economic reforms of the past five years are not about to be undone. |
A takeover by the populist Five Star Movement is unlikely either now or in the next election. The movement may run out of steam, as it increasingly becomes embroiled in political mishaps arising from its administration of Rome and Turin. Crucially, planned electoral reforms are likely to lead a form of proportional representation that will make it difficult for any single party to form a government. The continuation of coalition governments will exclude the Five Star Movement, which refuses to take part in them. | A takeover by the populist Five Star Movement is unlikely either now or in the next election. The movement may run out of steam, as it increasingly becomes embroiled in political mishaps arising from its administration of Rome and Turin. Crucially, planned electoral reforms are likely to lead a form of proportional representation that will make it difficult for any single party to form a government. The continuation of coalition governments will exclude the Five Star Movement, which refuses to take part in them. |
And any new Italian government is likely to behave in the same way as Renzi’s government did towards its European allies, seeking to bend fiscal rules in its favour and to press for a more expansive fiscal policy. It will also continue to demand solidarity from the EU with its efforts to deal with migrants and to rebuild the areas affected by recent earthquakes. Italy is unlikely to be the domino that leads to more instability in Europe. | And any new Italian government is likely to behave in the same way as Renzi’s government did towards its European allies, seeking to bend fiscal rules in its favour and to press for a more expansive fiscal policy. It will also continue to demand solidarity from the EU with its efforts to deal with migrants and to rebuild the areas affected by recent earthquakes. Italy is unlikely to be the domino that leads to more instability in Europe. |
Updated | Updated |
at 11.48am GMT | at 11.48am GMT |
11.13am GMT | 11.13am GMT |
11:13 | 11:13 |
Paul Mason, Guardian columnist and author of Postcapitalism, is buoyed by the referendum result in Italy and the presidential election in Austria. | Paul Mason, Guardian columnist and author of Postcapitalism, is buoyed by the referendum result in Italy and the presidential election in Austria. |
Italian No to parliamentary autocracy is logical and rational; so is the Austrian no to the far right. Good day for Europe, bad for Schauble | Italian No to parliamentary autocracy is logical and rational; so is the Austrian no to the far right. Good day for Europe, bad for Schauble |
Lesson of Renzi - Germany: take your heel off neck of Greece tonight & grant debt relief now. But no, it will be neoliberal biz as usual... | Lesson of Renzi - Germany: take your heel off neck of Greece tonight & grant debt relief now. But no, it will be neoliberal biz as usual... |
Renzi defeat = victory for Italian democracy. Hofer defeat = victory for Austrian democracy. How hard is it to support democracy peeps? | Renzi defeat = victory for Italian democracy. Hofer defeat = victory for Austrian democracy. How hard is it to support democracy peeps? |
10.59am GMT | 10.59am GMT |
10:59 | 10:59 |
Matteo Salvini, leader of Italy’s far-right Northern League, says the result – alongside the “hair’s breadth” defeat of far-right Freedom party candidate Norbert Hofer in Austria – sends a message to the EU. | Matteo Salvini, leader of Italy’s far-right Northern League, says the result – alongside the “hair’s breadth” defeat of far-right Freedom party candidate Norbert Hofer in Austria – sends a message to the EU. |
10.54am GMT | 10.54am GMT |
10:54 | 10:54 |
Italy might have to spend public money to rescue some of its banks, including by taking stakes in them, according to European Central Bank governing council member Ewald Nowotny. | Italy might have to spend public money to rescue some of its banks, including by taking stakes in them, according to European Central Bank governing council member Ewald Nowotny. |
“The difference between Italy and other states such as Germany and Austria is that, until now, in Italy there has not been any significant state aid or state takeovers (of banks),” Reuters quoted him saying. | “The difference between Italy and other states such as Germany and Austria is that, until now, in Italy there has not been any significant state aid or state takeovers (of banks),” Reuters quoted him saying. |
Nowotny, who heads Austria’s central bank, added: “It therefore cannot be ruled out that it will be necessary for the state to take stakes (in banks) in some way.” | Nowotny, who heads Austria’s central bank, added: “It therefore cannot be ruled out that it will be necessary for the state to take stakes (in banks) in some way.” |
Follow the latest market reaction here: | Follow the latest market reaction here: |
Updated | Updated |
at 12.12pm GMT | at 12.12pm GMT |
10.46am GMT | 10.46am GMT |
10:46 | 10:46 |
BuzzFeed’s Italian Europe editor Alberto Nardelli cautions against playing down the referendum result: | BuzzFeed’s Italian Europe editor Alberto Nardelli cautions against playing down the referendum result: |
The next time Italy goes to the polls you have a 3 horse race: 1) M5S 2) PD (in disarray) and 3) centre-right/Lega - they all could win | The next time Italy goes to the polls you have a 3 horse race: 1) M5S 2) PD (in disarray) and 3) centre-right/Lega - they all could win |