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| Matteo Renzi's future uncertain after high turnout in Italian referendum | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Early voter turnout results in Italy showed a high level of interest in Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reforms, with one top official in Matteo Renzi’s campaign predicting the results would be close. | Early voter turnout results in Italy showed a high level of interest in Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reforms, with one top official in Matteo Renzi’s campaign predicting the results would be close. |
| The figures indicated that, in a contest that is seen as a bitter fight between the centre-left Renzi government and rising anti-establishment, Eurosceptic, and anti-immigrant parties, Italians turned out in high numbers despite earlier indications that up to a quarter of Italian voters had been undecided. | The figures indicated that, in a contest that is seen as a bitter fight between the centre-left Renzi government and rising anti-establishment, Eurosceptic, and anti-immigrant parties, Italians turned out in high numbers despite earlier indications that up to a quarter of Italian voters had been undecided. |
| Figures released by the interior ministry showed that about 55% of eligible voters had cast their ballots as of 7pm. | Figures released by the interior ministry showed that about 55% of eligible voters had cast their ballots as of 7pm. |
| However, the relatively high turnout did not clearly favour the centre-left government’s campaign or the opposition, led by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), because both sides have strongholds in high-voting regions. | However, the relatively high turnout did not clearly favour the centre-left government’s campaign or the opposition, led by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), because both sides have strongholds in high-voting regions. |
| In Milan, Italy’s financial and business centre, about 65% of voters had cast their ballots by 7pm, a bloc that probably favours the yes camp. But voters in cities where support is strong for the rightwing Northern League – such as Varese – were also out in force. | In Milan, Italy’s financial and business centre, about 65% of voters had cast their ballots by 7pm, a bloc that probably favours the yes camp. But voters in cities where support is strong for the rightwing Northern League – such as Varese – were also out in force. |
| Flavio Arzarello, the yes campaign’s field director, said that the turnout data confirmed the race was “very close” and urged supporters to “call everyone”. | Flavio Arzarello, the yes campaign’s field director, said that the turnout data confirmed the race was “very close” and urged supporters to “call everyone”. |
| For many voters, the referendum was ultimately a confidence vote in Renzi himself, exacerbated by the prime minister’s insistence that he would resign if he lost the referendum. If Renzi were to pull off a surprise win, it would represent a remarkable achievement for the former Florence mayor, who entered the final weeks of the race facing a five-point deficit – and without the support of some of his party’s old guard. | For many voters, the referendum was ultimately a confidence vote in Renzi himself, exacerbated by the prime minister’s insistence that he would resign if he lost the referendum. If Renzi were to pull off a surprise win, it would represent a remarkable achievement for the former Florence mayor, who entered the final weeks of the race facing a five-point deficit – and without the support of some of his party’s old guard. |
| The referendum asked voters to accept or reject complicated changes to the Italian constitution, including an overhaul of the parliament that would end Italy’s system of “perfect bicameralism” and adopt a change in the way senators are elected. While Renzi’s yes campaign argued that the reforms would make Italy easier to govern and more stable, the no campaign depicted the move as a dangerous power grab by the ruling Democratic party. | The referendum asked voters to accept or reject complicated changes to the Italian constitution, including an overhaul of the parliament that would end Italy’s system of “perfect bicameralism” and adopt a change in the way senators are elected. While Renzi’s yes campaign argued that the reforms would make Italy easier to govern and more stable, the no campaign depicted the move as a dangerous power grab by the ruling Democratic party. |
| Andrea Liberati, a M5S official in Umbria, said the populist party’s biggest objection to the reform was that it would give Renzi more power. Indeed, another top M5S member had called the authors of the reform the “serial killers” of Italy’s future. | Andrea Liberati, a M5S official in Umbria, said the populist party’s biggest objection to the reform was that it would give Renzi more power. Indeed, another top M5S member had called the authors of the reform the “serial killers” of Italy’s future. |
| “The Five Star Movement has stayed close to the people, we hear their voice. It’s as if the current governors all live in grand palaces – they don’t listen anymore,” Liberati said. | “The Five Star Movement has stayed close to the people, we hear their voice. It’s as if the current governors all live in grand palaces – they don’t listen anymore,” Liberati said. |
| In Orvieto, dual Italian-American national Steve Brenner, who owns a hotel in Rome, said he voted no because he did not believe the proposed changes to the constitution would deliver a more efficient or smaller government. | In Orvieto, dual Italian-American national Steve Brenner, who owns a hotel in Rome, said he voted no because he did not believe the proposed changes to the constitution would deliver a more efficient or smaller government. |
| “The biggest problem for me in Italy is a lack of faith in government,” Brenner said. “That undermines everything and it’s what makes governments unstable. To increase faith in government, we don’t need a constitutional reform. We need the government to show they are public servants, there for the betterment of all, not just for their own comfort and greed.” | “The biggest problem for me in Italy is a lack of faith in government,” Brenner said. “That undermines everything and it’s what makes governments unstable. To increase faith in government, we don’t need a constitutional reform. We need the government to show they are public servants, there for the betterment of all, not just for their own comfort and greed.” |
| If the no camp succeeds, it will – at least temporarily – plunge the eurozone’s third largest economy into a state of political turmoil and immediately raise questions about the stability of the country’s troubled banks, including whether the planned rescue of the world’s oldest bank, Banca Monte di Paschi di Siena, by a consortium of other banks, will be cast into doubt. | If the no camp succeeds, it will – at least temporarily – plunge the eurozone’s third largest economy into a state of political turmoil and immediately raise questions about the stability of the country’s troubled banks, including whether the planned rescue of the world’s oldest bank, Banca Monte di Paschi di Siena, by a consortium of other banks, will be cast into doubt. |
| If the no camp wins and Renzi follows through on his threat to resign, it will be the job of the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, elected by lawmakers in 2015, to oversee the cobbling together of a new government. | If the no camp wins and Renzi follows through on his threat to resign, it will be the job of the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, elected by lawmakers in 2015, to oversee the cobbling together of a new government. |
| Mattarella will likely come under intense pressure by the M5S and the Northern League to call elections immediately in the event that Renzi is defeated. The creation of a new government would be determined by the heads of all of Italy’s major parties: Renzi of the Democratic party, Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia, Beppe Grillo of the M5S, and Matteo Salvini of the Northern League. | Mattarella will likely come under intense pressure by the M5S and the Northern League to call elections immediately in the event that Renzi is defeated. The creation of a new government would be determined by the heads of all of Italy’s major parties: Renzi of the Democratic party, Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia, Beppe Grillo of the M5S, and Matteo Salvini of the Northern League. |
| If the parties cannot agree on a new government, and if Renzi sees major defections from the coalition that put him in power, elections could be called. | If the parties cannot agree on a new government, and if Renzi sees major defections from the coalition that put him in power, elections could be called. |
| But Wolfango Piccoli, analyst at Teneo Intelligence, said he believed snap elections were unlikely. In the ”worst case” scenario, Piccoli said the M5S could win an election but would not likely command a majority in both houses of parliament. In this case, there would be more “noise” about a referendum on the euro, but probably no political consensus to pursue a vote on the single currency. | But Wolfango Piccoli, analyst at Teneo Intelligence, said he believed snap elections were unlikely. In the ”worst case” scenario, Piccoli said the M5S could win an election but would not likely command a majority in both houses of parliament. In this case, there would be more “noise” about a referendum on the euro, but probably no political consensus to pursue a vote on the single currency. |