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Matteo Renzi's future uncertain after high turnout in Italian referendum Italy referendum: exit polls point to heavy defeat for Matteo Renzi
(35 minutes later)
Early voter turnout results in Italy showed a high level of interest in Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reforms, with one top official in Matteo Renzi’s campaign predicting the results would be close. Matteo Renzi looked as if he was heading toward a stinging defeat in a referendum to change Italy’s constitution, judging by initial exit polls that indicated populist and anti-immigrant parties opposing the controversial reform have won up to 60% of the vote.
The figures indicated that, in a contest that is seen as a bitter fight between the centre-left Renzi government and rising anti-establishment, Eurosceptic, and anti-immigrant parties, Italians turned out in high numbers despite earlier indications that up to a quarter of Italian voters had been undecided. Italy’s exit polls are notoriously unreliable but polls from various sources, including the country’s public broadcaster, Rai News, suggested that Renzi has been roundly defeated, which would mark a major victory for the Five Star Movement and plunge the eurozone’s third largest economy into political chaos.
Figures released by the interior ministry showed that about 55% of eligible voters had cast their ballots as of 7pm. Renzi was expected to address the nation at midnight.
However, the relatively high turnout did not clearly favour the centre-left government’s campaign or the opposition, led by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), because both sides have strongholds in high-voting regions. If the exit polls are correct, the prime minister would be expected to submit his resignation to Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, as early as Monday. Based on the exit polls, Italians appear to have resolutely rejected the prime minister’s proposed reforms of Italy’s constitution and parliamentary system.
In Milan, Italy’s financial and business centre, about 65% of voters had cast their ballots by 7pm, a bloc that probably favours the yes camp. But voters in cities where support is strong for the rightwing Northern League – such as Varese – were also out in force. The apparent victory for no will probably rattle European and global markets, which will be concerned about Italy’s economic future and evident support of populist and Eurosceptic parties. It may also prompt worries about plans by a consortium of banks to rescue Banca Monte dei Paschi of Siena, as some investors said they feared that a victory for no could destabilise the banking sector.
Flavio Arzarello, the yes campaign’s field director, said that the turnout data confirmed the race was “very close” and urged supporters to “call everyone”. If the exit polls are correct, the results will be seen as a clear rejection by voters of establishment politics in favour of populist and anti-immigrant forces, much as the UK’s vote in June to leave the European Union and the election last month of Donald Trump in the US were. Renzi made constitutional reform a central plank of his premiership and argued for months that the changes would make Italy more stable and likely to adopt tough-but-needed economic and labour policies.
For many voters, the referendum was ultimately a confidence vote in Renzi himself, exacerbated by the prime minister’s insistence that he would resign if he lost the referendum. If Renzi were to pull off a surprise win, it would represent a remarkable achievement for the former Florence mayor, who entered the final weeks of the race facing a five-point deficit – and without the support of some of his party’s old guard. But the prime minister does not appear to have been able to overcome a steep decline in his own popularity. For many voters the plebiscite ultimately became a vote of no confidence in the premier. The former mayor of Florence’s breezy confidence has become seen as arrogance and a sign of just how out of touch the ruling political class is from the concerns of average Italians.
The referendum asked voters to accept or reject complicated changes to the Italian constitution, including an overhaul of the parliament that would end Italy’s system of “perfect bicameralism” and adopt a change in the way senators are elected. While Renzi’s yes campaign argued that the reforms would make Italy easier to govern and more stable, the no campaign depicted the move as a dangerous power grab by the ruling Democratic party. Just as the exit polls and Renzi’s apparent defeat raised serious questions about the prime minister’s future – he had apparently planned to stay on as head of the Democratic party, even after his planned resignation as prime minister in the event of a win for no – it was a decisive win for two other men: the Five Star Movement’s (M5S) Beppe Grillo and Matteo Salvini of the anti-immigrant Northern League.
Andrea Liberati, a M5S official in Umbria, said the populist party’s biggest objection to the reform was that it would give Renzi more power. Indeed, another top M5S member had called the authors of the reform the “serial killers” of Italy’s future. While the two parties have not traditionally been aligned, both campaigned vigorously against the referendum, likening the constitutional reforms to a power grab by the prime minister. Strong voter turnout in pockets of northern Italy, especially Lombardy and Veneto, where the Northern League has high levels of support, suggests voters may also have been sending the government a message on the immigration crisis. Renzi has always defended his government’s position on the moral necessity of rescuing thousands of migrants on the Mediterranean, even as he has said that Italy could not cope with the issue without more help from Europe.
“The Five Star Movement has stayed close to the people, we hear their voice. It’s as if the current governors all live in grand palaces – they don’t listen anymore,” Liberati said. If the exit polls are accurate and Renzi stands by his promise to resign, it will fall to President Mattarella to try to cobble together a new government with the agreement of the country’s largest parties, including Silvio Berlusconi’s conservative Forza Italia. But the young guns of the Five Star Movement, including Luigi di Maio, made clear last week that they would call for a swift election if the no camp was victorious.
In Orvieto, dual Italian-American national Steve Brenner, who owns a hotel in Rome, said he voted no because he did not believe the proposed changes to the constitution would deliver a more efficient or smaller government. While some see the potential rise of either the Five Star Movement or the Northern League – which are both anti-EU – as a sign that Italy could try to pull out of the single market, some analysts have downplayed that possibility. An exit from the euro would be exceedingly complicated and – while Euroscepticism is clearly on the rise – there is no clear political consensus to leave the single currency.
“The biggest problem for me in Italy is a lack of faith in government,” Brenner said. “That undermines everything and it’s what makes governments unstable. To increase faith in government, we don’t need a constitutional reform. We need the government to show they are public servants, there for the betterment of all, not just for their own comfort and greed.” Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London, said the most likely outcome would be for Renzi to resign and a new caretaker government to take over. The new government would then be expected to focus entirely on the passage of a new electoral law, which in turn would hamper the ability of either the M5S or the Northern League from winning a strong majority in the next elections.
If the no camp succeeds, it will – at least temporarily – plunge the eurozone’s third largest economy into a state of political turmoil and immediately raise questions about the stability of the country’s troubled banks, including whether the planned rescue of the world’s oldest bank, Banca Monte di Paschi di Siena, by a consortium of other banks, will be cast into doubt. Andrea Liberati, an M5S official in Umbria, said the populist party’s biggest objection to the reform was that it would give Renzi more power. Indeed, another top M5S member had called the authors of the reform the “serial killers” of Italy’s future.
If the no camp wins and Renzi follows through on his threat to resign, it will be the job of the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, elected by lawmakers in 2015, to oversee the cobbling together of a new government. “The Five Star Movement has stayed close to the people, we hear their voice. It’s as if the current governors all live in grand palaces – they don’t listen any more,” said Liberati.
Mattarella will likely come under intense pressure by the M5S and the Northern League to call elections immediately in the event that Renzi is defeated. The creation of a new government would be determined by the heads of all of Italy’s major parties: Renzi of the Democratic party, Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia, Beppe Grillo of the M5S, and Matteo Salvini of the Northern League. In Orvieto, dual Italian-American national Steve Brenner, who owns a hotel in Rome, said he voted no because he did not believe the proposed changes to the constitution would deliver a more efficient or smaller government. “The biggest problem for me in Italy is a lack of faith in government,” Brenner said. “That undermines everything and it’s what makes governments unstable. To increase faith in government, we don’t need a constitutional reform. We need the government to show they are public servants, there for the betterment of all, not just for their own comfort and greed.”
If the parties cannot agree on a new government, and if Renzi sees major defections from the coalition that put him in power, elections could be called.
But Wolfango Piccoli, analyst at Teneo Intelligence, said he believed snap elections were unlikely. In the ”worst case” scenario, Piccoli said the M5S could win an election but would not likely command a majority in both houses of parliament. In this case, there would be more “noise” about a referendum on the euro, but probably no political consensus to pursue a vote on the single currency.