This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/dec/16/investors-await-manufacturing-report-for-clues-on-uk-economy-business-live
The article has changed 17 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Investors await manufacturing report for clues on UK economy - business live | Investors await manufacturing report for clues on UK economy - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.00am GMT | |
| 10:00 | |
| Olivier Vigna, economist at HSBC, said the French Insee survey was the latest indication that growth in the fourth quarter will pick-up to 0.4% from 0.2% in the third. | |
| Recent surveys on France largely confirm the rebound in the economic activity we expect for Q4 and other forward-looking indicators also point to a higher momentum. | |
| Of course, it would be naive to read too much into the positive signals coming from surveys as they are not always reflected in hard data. | |
| Nevertheless, the upwards trend witnessed in surveys bodes well for the increase we anticipate for GDP over the last quarter of 2016: we forecast +0.4% q-o-q after two consecutive weak quarters (-0.1% in Q2, then +0.2% in Q3). | |
| So although it is too early to have a comprehensive view on the full set of Q4 data, such an encouraging move, if durable and converted into better hard data, would also be positive for the entry into 2017. | |
| 9.48am GMT | |
| 09:48 | |
| French business confidence rises in December | |
| Over in France, firms were feeling more confident than expected in December according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee). | |
| The headline index rose to 105 from 102. It was the highest level since the summer of 2011. Confidence grew among manufacturing, services and retail firms, but dipped in construction. | |
| Insee: | |
| After being almost stable since August 2015, equal or slightly above its long term average (100), the climate has improved markedly in December 2016. | |
| 9.14am GMT | 9.14am GMT |
| 09:14 | 09:14 |
| Ifo: German economy likely to be stronger than expected in Q4 | Ifo: German economy likely to be stronger than expected in Q4 |
| Germany’s economy will be stronger than expected in the fourth quarter according to the Munich-based Ifo Institute. | Germany’s economy will be stronger than expected in the fourth quarter according to the Munich-based Ifo Institute. |
| Positive growth momentum in Europe’s largest economy will be carried into 2017, it added. | Positive growth momentum in Europe’s largest economy will be carried into 2017, it added. |
| As Ifo issued updated forecasts, the institute’s president Clemens Fuest, commented: | As Ifo issued updated forecasts, the institute’s president Clemens Fuest, commented: |
| All signs point to a fourth quarter that is stronger than had been expected until now. We’ll take this impetus into the new year. | All signs point to a fourth quarter that is stronger than had been expected until now. We’ll take this impetus into the new year. |
| Ifo left its forecast for growth in 2016 unchanged at 1.9%, which would be the strongest in five years. It nudged up forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 by 0.1% percentage points to 1.5% and 1.7% respectively. | Ifo left its forecast for growth in 2016 unchanged at 1.9%, which would be the strongest in five years. It nudged up forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 by 0.1% percentage points to 1.5% and 1.7% respectively. |
| Fuest: | Fuest: |
| The change of growth pace from 2016 to 2017 is only due to a lower number of workdays. | The change of growth pace from 2016 to 2017 is only due to a lower number of workdays. |
| For context, here are the International Monetary Fund’s growth predictions for the G7 in 2017 : | For context, here are the International Monetary Fund’s growth predictions for the G7 in 2017 : |
| 8.40am GMT | 8.40am GMT |
| 08:40 | 08:40 |
| Drugs company Actavis scrutinised over price hikes | Drugs company Actavis scrutinised over price hikes |
| The UK’s Actavis is the latest pharmaceutical company to come under criticism from the competition regulator over sharply hiking the price of tablets. | The UK’s Actavis is the latest pharmaceutical company to come under criticism from the competition regulator over sharply hiking the price of tablets. |
| Specifically, the Competition and Markets Authority says Actavis increased the price of life-saving hydrocortisone tablets by over 12,000%. It pushed up the annual cost to the NHS from £522,000 before to 2008 to £70m by 2015. | Specifically, the Competition and Markets Authority says Actavis increased the price of life-saving hydrocortisone tablets by over 12,000%. It pushed up the annual cost to the NHS from £522,000 before to 2008 to £70m by 2015. |
| The tablets are used by people whose adrenal glands do not produce enough steroid hormones, such as those suffering from Addison’s disease. | The tablets are used by people whose adrenal glands do not produce enough steroid hormones, such as those suffering from Addison’s disease. |
| At the this stage, the CMA’s findings are provisional and no fine has been issued. | At the this stage, the CMA’s findings are provisional and no fine has been issued. |
| It follows the watchdog’s decision last week to impose a record £84.2m fine on Pfizer, after the price charged to the NHS for an anti-epilepsy drug was increased by up to 2,600%. | It follows the watchdog’s decision last week to impose a record £84.2m fine on Pfizer, after the price charged to the NHS for an anti-epilepsy drug was increased by up to 2,600%. |
| Read our full story on Actavis here: | Read our full story on Actavis here: |
| 8.20am GMT | 8.20am GMT |
| 08:20 | 08:20 |
| FTSE climbs back above 7,000 | FTSE climbs back above 7,000 |
| The FTSE 100 is up five points in early trading. | The FTSE 100 is up five points in early trading. |
| So it’s a modest gain but takes the UK’s leading index of shares back above the 7,000 mark at 7,002. | So it’s a modest gain but takes the UK’s leading index of shares back above the 7,000 mark at 7,002. |
| Following the excitement of the Fed rate rise and Bank of England policy meeting earlier in the week, markets across Europe are fairly steady. | Following the excitement of the Fed rate rise and Bank of England policy meeting earlier in the week, markets across Europe are fairly steady. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.21am GMT | at 8.21am GMT |
| 8.09am GMT | 8.09am GMT |
| 08:09 | 08:09 |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Close attention will be paid to the CBI’s December industrial trends survey at 11am today as it will provide a timely health check on the UK economy as 2016 draws to a close. | Close attention will be paid to the CBI’s December industrial trends survey at 11am today as it will provide a timely health check on the UK economy as 2016 draws to a close. |
| Business surveys capture a more recent picture of economic activity than official data, but rely on a smaller sample size and tend to be more anecdotal. | Business surveys capture a more recent picture of economic activity than official data, but rely on a smaller sample size and tend to be more anecdotal. |
| That said, economists and policymakers look to surveys for clues of where the official data might be heading. | That said, economists and policymakers look to surveys for clues of where the official data might be heading. |
| The CBI’s manufacturing survey is expected to show a balance of -5% of firms reported a rise in orders in December, worse than November when it was -3%. | The CBI’s manufacturing survey is expected to show a balance of -5% of firms reported a rise in orders in December, worse than November when it was -3%. |
| One of the issues in recent weeks however is that the official data has painted a weaker picture of the economy than business surveys. | One of the issues in recent weeks however is that the official data has painted a weaker picture of the economy than business surveys. |
| Adam Cole, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, says: | Adam Cole, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, says: |
| Today’s CBI manufacturing survey is worth watching in the light of the very weak October manufacturing output data which marked a poor start to the monthly indicators that will add up to Q4 GDP. | Today’s CBI manufacturing survey is worth watching in the light of the very weak October manufacturing output data which marked a poor start to the monthly indicators that will add up to Q4 GDP. |
| The CBI survey has been less volatile than the manufacturing PMI recently and the consensus for the orders balance (-5) would be consistent with manufacturing out trending no better than flat. | The CBI survey has been less volatile than the manufacturing PMI recently and the consensus for the orders balance (-5) would be consistent with manufacturing out trending no better than flat. |
| We will bring you the numbers and reaction as it comes in, as well as tracking all the main events through the day. | We will bring you the numbers and reaction as it comes in, as well as tracking all the main events through the day. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.11am GMT | at 8.11am GMT |