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| Version 9 | Version 10 |
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| CBI signals strong end to the year for UK manufacturers - business live | CBI signals strong end to the year for UK manufacturers - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.03pm GMT | |
| 14:03 | |
| Weak US housing figures | |
| US housing starts fell by more than expected in November, falling from a nine year high. | |
| They dropped 18.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09m units, below expectations of a figure of 1.23m. October’s number was revised up from 1.32m to 1.34m, the highest since July 2007. | |
| 1.50pm GMT | |
| 13:50 | |
| More on Greece, and some comments from Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and German chancellor Angela Merkel ahead of their talks. | |
| Tsipras has said he would tell the chancellor about the positive momentum in the Greek economy and the “spectacular overachievement of revenue targets.” | |
| Greek PM Tsipras: Growth in Greece must heal wounds from previous austerity, we can't allow Greece to go back to uncertainty -Rtrs | |
| Merkel expects no decisions on Greek bailout at talks with Tsipras https://t.co/ReeNpl2dnv | |
| Meanwhile, another possible hurdle for Greece to overcome: | |
| Der Spiegel reporting that #IMF wll delay #Greece bailout decision til spring, allowing time for Trump to get lay of the land. ~@AlexRPigman | |
| Heavy bombshell from #IMF, if @DerSpiegel report true. Will create major repercussions both on economic and political level for #Greece. | |
| 1.00pm GMT | 1.00pm GMT |
| 13:00 | 13:00 |
| European markets are at 11-month highs, partly on the back of a weaker euro and expectations for stronger growth in the US next year. | European markets are at 11-month highs, partly on the back of a weaker euro and expectations for stronger growth in the US next year. |
| Reuters quotes Markus Huber, trader at City of London Markets: | Reuters quotes Markus Huber, trader at City of London Markets: |
| Stocks are continuing to get a boost from a weaker euro and the notion that the United States, the world’s largest economy, will experience an uptick in growth once President-elect Donald Trump has started implementing his new policies. | Stocks are continuing to get a boost from a weaker euro and the notion that the United States, the world’s largest economy, will experience an uptick in growth once President-elect Donald Trump has started implementing his new policies. |
| 12.31pm GMT | 12.31pm GMT |
| 12:31 | 12:31 |
| Europe’s main markets are up across the board: | Europe’s main markets are up across the board: |
| Updated | |
| at 2.07pm GMT | |
| 12.05pm GMT | 12.05pm GMT |
| 12:05 | 12:05 |
| Bank of Greece calls for an end to the standoff with creditors | Bank of Greece calls for an end to the standoff with creditors |
| Greece’s central bank has appealed for an end to the standoff between the government and the country’s creditors. | Greece’s central bank has appealed for an end to the standoff between the government and the country’s creditors. |
| If follows the decision by prime minister Alexis Tsipras to award low income pensioners with a pre-Christmas bonus - a move which angered Greece’s international lenders. | If follows the decision by prime minister Alexis Tsipras to award low income pensioners with a pre-Christmas bonus - a move which angered Greece’s international lenders. |
| The Guardian’s Helena Smith reports from Athens: | The Guardian’s Helena Smith reports from Athens: |
| Hours after the Greek parliament approved Tsipras’ package of relief measures, the country’s central bank has stepped in, urging an end to the dispute and appealing for differences to be “worked out at the negotiations table in a genuine spirit of co-operation with the institutions and our partners.” | Hours after the Greek parliament approved Tsipras’ package of relief measures, the country’s central bank has stepped in, urging an end to the dispute and appealing for differences to be “worked out at the negotiations table in a genuine spirit of co-operation with the institutions and our partners.” |
| Predicting the economy will expand by 2.5% next year – a jump from just 0.1 % this year - the Bank of Greece called for “pragmatism and flexibility” in its interim monetary policy report released today. | Predicting the economy will expand by 2.5% next year – a jump from just 0.1 % this year - the Bank of Greece called for “pragmatism and flexibility” in its interim monetary policy report released today. |
| This emerging positive momentum in the economy needs to be supported and consolidated through adherence to the programme targets and an accelerated implementation of the reforms and privatisations agreed on. | This emerging positive momentum in the economy needs to be supported and consolidated through adherence to the programme targets and an accelerated implementation of the reforms and privatisations agreed on. |
| Specifically, the Bank of Greece expects GDP to grow by a marginal 0.1% in 2016, before picking up to 2.5 % in 2017 and further to 3% in 2018 and 2019, supported by investment, consumption and exports. | Specifically, the Bank of Greece expects GDP to grow by a marginal 0.1% in 2016, before picking up to 2.5 % in 2017 and further to 3% in 2018 and 2019, supported by investment, consumption and exports. |
| But an ongoing review of the debt-stricken country’s creditor-mandated reforms would have to be wrapped up quickly, the bank said, so that Greece could take the next step towards inclusion in the European Central Bank’s QE bond-buying programme. | But an ongoing review of the debt-stricken country’s creditor-mandated reforms would have to be wrapped up quickly, the bank said, so that Greece could take the next step towards inclusion in the European Central Bank’s QE bond-buying programme. |
| There is not much time left, in the light of upcoming national elections in a number of euro area countries. | There is not much time left, in the light of upcoming national elections in a number of euro area countries. |
| Progress, it added, would be easier if lenders also agreed to lower expectations of Athens achieving a primary budget surplus of 3.5 % by 2018. | Progress, it added, would be easier if lenders also agreed to lower expectations of Athens achieving a primary budget surplus of 3.5 % by 2018. |
| Tsipras is expected to raise this issue – and the decision by the euro zone’s bailout agency, or ESM, to put short-term debt relief measures for Athens on hold - when he holds talks with German chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin this evening. | Tsipras is expected to raise this issue – and the decision by the euro zone’s bailout agency, or ESM, to put short-term debt relief measures for Athens on hold - when he holds talks with German chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin this evening. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.36pm GMT | at 1.36pm GMT |
| 11.35am GMT | 11.35am GMT |
| 11:35 | 11:35 |
| Paul Hollingsworth, UK economist at Capital Economics, says the CBI surveys suggests the weaker official manufacturing data for October will prove to be a blip. | Paul Hollingsworth, UK economist at Capital Economics, says the CBI surveys suggests the weaker official manufacturing data for October will prove to be a blip. |
| [It] suggests that the 1% monthly fall in manufacturing output in October, as revealed by the ONS figures earlier this month, was just a temporary blip. Accordingly, we continue to think that GDP growth will become better balanced over the coming quarters. | [It] suggests that the 1% monthly fall in manufacturing output in October, as revealed by the ONS figures earlier this month, was just a temporary blip. Accordingly, we continue to think that GDP growth will become better balanced over the coming quarters. |
| Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Markit, says 2017 could be a tougher year for manufacturers. | Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Markit, says 2017 could be a tougher year for manufacturers. |
| Despite the decent December CBI industrial trends survey, there are significant potential problems for the manufacturing sector that look likely to build up in 2017. | Despite the decent December CBI industrial trends survey, there are significant potential problems for the manufacturing sector that look likely to build up in 2017. |
| In particular, business confidence is likely to be hampered by mounting uncertainty over the Brexit process, constraining investment plans and limiting demand for capital goods. | In particular, business confidence is likely to be hampered by mounting uncertainty over the Brexit process, constraining investment plans and limiting demand for capital goods. |
| It also looks inevitable that consumers will become markedly less able (due to diminishing purchasing power) and likely more reluctant to buy big ticket consumer durable items over the coming months. | It also looks inevitable that consumers will become markedly less able (due to diminishing purchasing power) and likely more reluctant to buy big ticket consumer durable items over the coming months. |
| 11.12am GMT | 11.12am GMT |
| 11:12 | 11:12 |
| While output and orders were up, the CBI survey also suggested the sharp fall in the drop of the pound since the Brexit vote is starting to push up manufacturers’ costs. | While output and orders were up, the CBI survey also suggested the sharp fall in the drop of the pound since the Brexit vote is starting to push up manufacturers’ costs. |
| A weaker pound makes imports from abroad more expensive, and the CBI said factory gate inflation is heading higher as manufacturers pass on to customers some of the price increases they are facing. | A weaker pound makes imports from abroad more expensive, and the CBI said factory gate inflation is heading higher as manufacturers pass on to customers some of the price increases they are facing. |
| Expectations for output price inflation - the prices charged by manufacturers for their goods - in the three months to March rose to their highest level since June 2011. | Expectations for output price inflation - the prices charged by manufacturers for their goods - in the three months to March rose to their highest level since June 2011. |
| Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI’s chief economist, says: | Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI’s chief economist, says: |
| It’s good to see our manufacturers ending the year on a high note with growth in production the strongest since summer 2014 and total orders still robust. | It’s good to see our manufacturers ending the year on a high note with growth in production the strongest since summer 2014 and total orders still robust. |
| But the weakness of sterling is pushing up the cost of imports, and our survey shows strong signs of this feeding through to higher factory gate prices. | But the weakness of sterling is pushing up the cost of imports, and our survey shows strong signs of this feeding through to higher factory gate prices. |
| After a challenging 2016, UK manufacturers will want to build on the positive momentum going into the new year, with the Government’s recent commitments on a modern industrial strategy and innovation investment a welcome tonic.” | After a challenging 2016, UK manufacturers will want to build on the positive momentum going into the new year, with the Government’s recent commitments on a modern industrial strategy and innovation investment a welcome tonic.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.15am GMT | at 11.15am GMT |
| 11.06am GMT | 11.06am GMT |
| 11:06 | 11:06 |
| CBI manufacturing: orders hit 20-month high | CBI manufacturing: orders hit 20-month high |
| The CBI’s industrial trends survey paints a better than expected picture of the UK manufacturing sector in December. | The CBI’s industrial trends survey paints a better than expected picture of the UK manufacturing sector in December. |
| The orders balance was 0, as 21% of businesses reported orders were above normal and 21% said they were below. That was better than the -5% predicted by economists, and the highest level in 20 months. | The orders balance was 0, as 21% of businesses reported orders were above normal and 21% said they were below. That was better than the -5% predicted by economists, and the highest level in 20 months. |
| Growth in output was the strongest since mid-2014, the business lobby groups said. Production fell in just four out of 18 sectors. | Growth in output was the strongest since mid-2014, the business lobby groups said. Production fell in just four out of 18 sectors. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.06am GMT | at 11.06am GMT |
| 10.47am GMT | 10.47am GMT |
| 10:47 | 10:47 |
| Teva Group, parent company of Actavis, has responded to criticism from the competition watchdog over steep price hikes. | Teva Group, parent company of Actavis, has responded to criticism from the competition watchdog over steep price hikes. |
| The Competition and Markets Authority says the UK-based Actavis company increased the price of life-saving hydrocortisone tablets by over 12,000% (full story here). | The Competition and Markets Authority says the UK-based Actavis company increased the price of life-saving hydrocortisone tablets by over 12,000% (full story here). |
| Teva responds: | Teva responds: |
| Generic medicines continue to be an affordable alternative to branded therapies. Teva is proud of our track record in bringing cost savings to the NHS as the UK’s largest generic medicines manufacturer. | Generic medicines continue to be an affordable alternative to branded therapies. Teva is proud of our track record in bringing cost savings to the NHS as the UK’s largest generic medicines manufacturer. |
| Competition from generic medicines saves the NHS in England and Wales £13.5bn per year overall, and Teva medicines account for approximately £3.2bn of this saving. Although the pricing of the acquired Actavis product (Hydrocortisone) under investigation was never under Teva’s effective control, Teva believes that intervention by the CMA in prices for generic medicines raises serious policy concerns regarding the roles of both the CMA and the Department of Health. | Competition from generic medicines saves the NHS in England and Wales £13.5bn per year overall, and Teva medicines account for approximately £3.2bn of this saving. Although the pricing of the acquired Actavis product (Hydrocortisone) under investigation was never under Teva’s effective control, Teva believes that intervention by the CMA in prices for generic medicines raises serious policy concerns regarding the roles of both the CMA and the Department of Health. |
| 10.30am GMT | 10.30am GMT |
| 10:30 | 10:30 |
| Eurozone inflation rises to 0.6% in November | Eurozone inflation rises to 0.6% in November |
| The annual rate of inflation climbed to a 31-month high of 0.6% in November from 0.5% in October, the Eurostat statistics office has confirmed. | The annual rate of inflation climbed to a 31-month high of 0.6% in November from 0.5% in October, the Eurostat statistics office has confirmed. |
| The biggest drivers of the rise came from restaurants and cafes, rents and tobacco, while the price of gas, heating oil and package holidays fell and held the inflation rate back. | The biggest drivers of the rise came from restaurants and cafes, rents and tobacco, while the price of gas, heating oil and package holidays fell and held the inflation rate back. |
| 10.00am GMT | 10.00am GMT |
| 10:00 | 10:00 |
| Olivier Vigna, economist at HSBC, said the French Insee survey was the latest indication that growth in the fourth quarter will pick-up to 0.4% from 0.2% in the third. | Olivier Vigna, economist at HSBC, said the French Insee survey was the latest indication that growth in the fourth quarter will pick-up to 0.4% from 0.2% in the third. |
| Recent surveys on France largely confirm the rebound in the economic activity we expect for Q4 and other forward-looking indicators also point to a higher momentum. | Recent surveys on France largely confirm the rebound in the economic activity we expect for Q4 and other forward-looking indicators also point to a higher momentum. |
| Of course, it would be naive to read too much into the positive signals coming from surveys as they are not always reflected in hard data. | Of course, it would be naive to read too much into the positive signals coming from surveys as they are not always reflected in hard data. |
| Nevertheless, the upwards trend witnessed in surveys bodes well for the increase we anticipate for GDP over the last quarter of 2016: we forecast +0.4% q-o-q after two consecutive weak quarters (-0.1% in Q2, then +0.2% in Q3). | Nevertheless, the upwards trend witnessed in surveys bodes well for the increase we anticipate for GDP over the last quarter of 2016: we forecast +0.4% q-o-q after two consecutive weak quarters (-0.1% in Q2, then +0.2% in Q3). |
| So although it is too early to have a comprehensive view on the full set of Q4 data, such an encouraging move, if durable and converted into better hard data, would also be positive for the entry into 2017. | So although it is too early to have a comprehensive view on the full set of Q4 data, such an encouraging move, if durable and converted into better hard data, would also be positive for the entry into 2017. |
| 9.48am GMT | 9.48am GMT |
| 09:48 | 09:48 |
| French business confidence rises in December | French business confidence rises in December |
| Over in France, firms were feeling more confident than expected in December according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee). | Over in France, firms were feeling more confident than expected in December according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee). |
| The headline index rose to 105 from 102. It was the highest level since the summer of 2011. Confidence grew among manufacturing, services and retail firms, but dipped in construction. | The headline index rose to 105 from 102. It was the highest level since the summer of 2011. Confidence grew among manufacturing, services and retail firms, but dipped in construction. |
| Insee: | Insee: |
| After being almost stable since August 2015, equal or slightly above its long term average (100), the climate has improved markedly in December 2016. | After being almost stable since August 2015, equal or slightly above its long term average (100), the climate has improved markedly in December 2016. |
| 9.14am GMT | 9.14am GMT |
| 09:14 | 09:14 |
| Ifo: German economy likely to be stronger than expected in Q4 | Ifo: German economy likely to be stronger than expected in Q4 |
| Germany’s economy will be stronger than expected in the fourth quarter according to the Munich-based Ifo Institute. | Germany’s economy will be stronger than expected in the fourth quarter according to the Munich-based Ifo Institute. |
| Positive growth momentum in Europe’s largest economy will be carried into 2017, it added. | Positive growth momentum in Europe’s largest economy will be carried into 2017, it added. |
| As Ifo issued updated forecasts, the institute’s president Clemens Fuest, commented: | As Ifo issued updated forecasts, the institute’s president Clemens Fuest, commented: |
| All signs point to a fourth quarter that is stronger than had been expected until now. We’ll take this impetus into the new year. | All signs point to a fourth quarter that is stronger than had been expected until now. We’ll take this impetus into the new year. |
| Ifo left its forecast for growth in 2016 unchanged at 1.9%, which would be the strongest in five years. It nudged up forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 by 0.1% percentage points to 1.5% and 1.7% respectively. | Ifo left its forecast for growth in 2016 unchanged at 1.9%, which would be the strongest in five years. It nudged up forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 by 0.1% percentage points to 1.5% and 1.7% respectively. |
| Fuest: | Fuest: |
| The change of growth pace from 2016 to 2017 is only due to a lower number of workdays. | The change of growth pace from 2016 to 2017 is only due to a lower number of workdays. |
| For context, here are the International Monetary Fund’s growth predictions for the G7 in 2017 : | For context, here are the International Monetary Fund’s growth predictions for the G7 in 2017 : |
| 8.40am GMT | 8.40am GMT |
| 08:40 | 08:40 |
| Drugs company Actavis scrutinised over price hikes | Drugs company Actavis scrutinised over price hikes |
| The UK’s Actavis is the latest pharmaceutical company to come under criticism from the competition regulator over sharply hiking the price of tablets. | The UK’s Actavis is the latest pharmaceutical company to come under criticism from the competition regulator over sharply hiking the price of tablets. |
| Specifically, the Competition and Markets Authority says Actavis increased the price of life-saving hydrocortisone tablets by over 12,000%. It pushed up the annual cost to the NHS from £522,000 before to 2008 to £70m by 2015. | Specifically, the Competition and Markets Authority says Actavis increased the price of life-saving hydrocortisone tablets by over 12,000%. It pushed up the annual cost to the NHS from £522,000 before to 2008 to £70m by 2015. |
| The tablets are used by people whose adrenal glands do not produce enough steroid hormones, such as those suffering from Addison’s disease. | The tablets are used by people whose adrenal glands do not produce enough steroid hormones, such as those suffering from Addison’s disease. |
| At the this stage, the CMA’s findings are provisional and no fine has been issued. | At the this stage, the CMA’s findings are provisional and no fine has been issued. |
| It follows the watchdog’s decision last week to impose a record £84.2m fine on Pfizer, after the price charged to the NHS for an anti-epilepsy drug was increased by up to 2,600%. | It follows the watchdog’s decision last week to impose a record £84.2m fine on Pfizer, after the price charged to the NHS for an anti-epilepsy drug was increased by up to 2,600%. |
| Read our full story on Actavis here: | Read our full story on Actavis here: |
| 8.20am GMT | 8.20am GMT |
| 08:20 | 08:20 |
| FTSE climbs back above 7,000 | FTSE climbs back above 7,000 |
| The FTSE 100 is up five points in early trading. | The FTSE 100 is up five points in early trading. |
| So it’s a modest gain but takes the UK’s leading index of shares back above the 7,000 mark at 7,002. | So it’s a modest gain but takes the UK’s leading index of shares back above the 7,000 mark at 7,002. |
| Following the excitement of the Fed rate rise and Bank of England policy meeting earlier in the week, markets across Europe are fairly steady. | Following the excitement of the Fed rate rise and Bank of England policy meeting earlier in the week, markets across Europe are fairly steady. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.21am GMT | at 8.21am GMT |
| 8.09am GMT | 8.09am GMT |
| 08:09 | 08:09 |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Close attention will be paid to the CBI’s December industrial trends survey at 11am today as it will provide a timely health check on the UK economy as 2016 draws to a close. | Close attention will be paid to the CBI’s December industrial trends survey at 11am today as it will provide a timely health check on the UK economy as 2016 draws to a close. |
| Business surveys capture a more recent picture of economic activity than official data, but rely on a smaller sample size and tend to be more anecdotal. | Business surveys capture a more recent picture of economic activity than official data, but rely on a smaller sample size and tend to be more anecdotal. |
| That said, economists and policymakers look to surveys for clues of where the official data might be heading. | That said, economists and policymakers look to surveys for clues of where the official data might be heading. |
| The CBI’s manufacturing survey is expected to show a balance of -5% of firms reported a rise in orders in December, worse than November when it was -3%. | The CBI’s manufacturing survey is expected to show a balance of -5% of firms reported a rise in orders in December, worse than November when it was -3%. |
| One of the issues in recent weeks however is that the official data has painted a weaker picture of the economy than business surveys. | One of the issues in recent weeks however is that the official data has painted a weaker picture of the economy than business surveys. |
| Adam Cole, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, says: | Adam Cole, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, says: |
| Today’s CBI manufacturing survey is worth watching in the light of the very weak October manufacturing output data which marked a poor start to the monthly indicators that will add up to Q4 GDP. | Today’s CBI manufacturing survey is worth watching in the light of the very weak October manufacturing output data which marked a poor start to the monthly indicators that will add up to Q4 GDP. |
| The CBI survey has been less volatile than the manufacturing PMI recently and the consensus for the orders balance (-5) would be consistent with manufacturing out trending no better than flat. | The CBI survey has been less volatile than the manufacturing PMI recently and the consensus for the orders balance (-5) would be consistent with manufacturing out trending no better than flat. |
| We will bring you the numbers and reaction as it comes in, as well as tracking all the main events through the day. | We will bring you the numbers and reaction as it comes in, as well as tracking all the main events through the day. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.11am GMT | at 8.11am GMT |