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| Election 2017: Seat-by-seat result forecasts | Election 2017: Seat-by-seat result forecasts |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The Conservatives are at risk of losing their overall majority, while remaining the largest party in Westminster, BBC forecasts suggest. | The Conservatives are at risk of losing their overall majority, while remaining the largest party in Westminster, BBC forecasts suggest. |
| The Conservatives are predicted to win 318 seats, Labour 267, the SNP 32 and the Lib Dems 11. | |
| Based on results so far, it remains unclear whether Prime Minister Theresa May's party will secure the 326 seats required for a majority. However, the Tories' prospects of winning a landslide have now disappeared. | Based on results so far, it remains unclear whether Prime Minister Theresa May's party will secure the 326 seats required for a majority. However, the Tories' prospects of winning a landslide have now disappeared. |
| Based on analysis of results so far by professor of politics John Curtice and his team, here are the seat-by-seat predictions. As more votes are counted, these forecasts will be updated. | Based on analysis of results so far by professor of politics John Curtice and his team, here are the seat-by-seat predictions. As more votes are counted, these forecasts will be updated. |
| The seats listed below are those where the main parties are likely to make gains or where the result is too close to call. All parties could make gains in those seats currently being described as too close to call. | The seats listed below are those where the main parties are likely to make gains or where the result is too close to call. All parties could make gains in those seats currently being described as too close to call. |
| Read full methodology | Read full methodology |
| Forecast Conservative gains | Forecast Conservative gains |
| We are forecasting three Conservative gains from those seats yet to declare. All of those are in Scotland. | |
| Forecast Labour gains | Forecast Labour gains |
| We are forecasting seven Labour gains from those seats yet to declare. Four of those are in London, two in North-West England and one in South-East England. | |
| Forecast Lib Dem gains | Forecast Lib Dem gains |
| We are forecasting three Lib Dem gains from those seats yet to declare. All of these are in Scotland. | |
| Forecast as too close to call | Forecast as too close to call |
| The race in a large number of seats is so tight that the result is currently too close to call. There are 39 seats yet to declare that our predictions show as being too close to call. | |
| Seats forecast too close to call: Conservative held in 2015 | Seats forecast too close to call: Conservative held in 2015 |
| Seats forecast too close to call: Labour held in 2015 | Seats forecast too close to call: Labour held in 2015 |
| Seats forecast too close to call: Liberal Democrat held in 2015 | Seats forecast too close to call: Liberal Democrat held in 2015 |
| Seats forecast too close to call: SNP held in 2015 | Seats forecast too close to call: SNP held in 2015 |
| Analysis for this page is carried out by professor of politics John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, and his team. | Analysis for this page is carried out by professor of politics John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, and his team. |
| The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. | The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. |
| Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party. | Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party. |
| These estimated changes in vote share are then statistically modelled to (i) ascertain any systematic geographical variation in the estimated changes in vote shares, and (ii) derive estimated vote shares for every party in every constituency in Great Britain. | These estimated changes in vote share are then statistically modelled to (i) ascertain any systematic geographical variation in the estimated changes in vote shares, and (ii) derive estimated vote shares for every party in every constituency in Great Britain. |
| From the latter, the probability as to which party will win each seat is derived. For each party the exit poll forecast of seats won is the sum of these probabilities of winning across all constituencies. | From the latter, the probability as to which party will win each seat is derived. For each party the exit poll forecast of seats won is the sum of these probabilities of winning across all constituencies. |
| Once declarations begin, forecasts are then based on a combination of exit poll and real results. | Once declarations begin, forecasts are then based on a combination of exit poll and real results. |