This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373
The article has changed 13 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 7 | Version 8 |
|---|---|
| Election 2017: The seats still to watch out for | Election 2017: The seats still to watch out for |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The Conservatives are set to lose their overall majority, while remaining the largest party in Westminster, BBC forecasts suggest. | |
| The Conservatives are expected to end the night with 316 seats, Labour with 265, the SNP with 34 and the Lib Dems with 13. Parties require 326 seats to command a majority. | |
| The Tories will have fewer seats than when Prime Minister Theresa May called the election. Her party may be dependent on Northern Irish Unionist support to maintain its position in office. | |
| Based on analysis by professor of politics John Curtice and his team, these are the undeclared seats where the main parties are still likely to make gains or where the result is too close to call. All parties could make gains in those seats currently being described as too close to call. | Based on analysis by professor of politics John Curtice and his team, these are the undeclared seats where the main parties are still likely to make gains or where the result is too close to call. All parties could make gains in those seats currently being described as too close to call. |
| Read full methodology | Read full methodology |
| Forecast Conservative gains | Forecast Conservative gains |
| We are forecasting one Conservative gain from those seats yet to declare. It is in Scotland. | We are forecasting one Conservative gain from those seats yet to declare. It is in Scotland. |
| Forecast as too close to call | Forecast as too close to call |
| There are seven seats yet to declare that our predictions show as being too close to call. | |
| Seats forecast too close to call: Conservative held in 2015 | Seats forecast too close to call: Conservative held in 2015 |
| Seats forecast too close to call: Labour held in 2015 | Seats forecast too close to call: Labour held in 2015 |
| Seats forecast too close to call: SNP held in 2015 | Seats forecast too close to call: SNP held in 2015 |
| Analysis for this page is carried out by professor of politics John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, and his team. | Analysis for this page is carried out by professor of politics John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, and his team. |
| The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. | The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. |
| Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party. | Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party. |
| These estimated changes in vote share are then statistically modelled to (i) ascertain any systematic geographical variation in the estimated changes in vote shares, and (ii) derive estimated vote shares for every party in every constituency in Great Britain. | These estimated changes in vote share are then statistically modelled to (i) ascertain any systematic geographical variation in the estimated changes in vote shares, and (ii) derive estimated vote shares for every party in every constituency in Great Britain. |
| From the latter, the probability as to which party will win each seat is derived. For each party the exit poll forecast of seats won is the sum of these probabilities of winning across all constituencies. | From the latter, the probability as to which party will win each seat is derived. For each party the exit poll forecast of seats won is the sum of these probabilities of winning across all constituencies. |
| Once declarations begin, forecasts are then based on a combination of exit poll and real results. | Once declarations begin, forecasts are then based on a combination of exit poll and real results. |