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| UK retail sales growth flat but beats forecasts - business live | UK retail sales growth flat but beats forecasts - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.22am BST | |
| 10:22 | |
| Here’s some more detail on those lacklustre numbers from B&Q and Screwfix owner Kingfisher. | |
| 10.03am BST | |
| 10:03 | |
| Here comes Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club, without whose analysis no retail sales release would be complete. We’ve heard the numbers, which were better than expected, but here’s Howard’s slightly gloomier take on the shape of things to come: | |
| The outlook for consumers looks set to be highly challenging over the latter months of the year, even though a modicum of relief has come from consumer price inflation easing back to 2.6% in July from a near four-year high of 2.9% in May. | |
| Real income growth is currently negative, and it looks likely to remain so through the rest of 2017. Latest Office for National Statistics data show that total real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.5% in the three months to June, which was marginally down from a peak drop of 0.6% in May. Inflation will likely be close to 3% through the latter months of 2017, while earnings growth seems set to hover around 2% | |
| Furthermore, consumer confidence is brittle and caution over making major purchases appears to have been reinforced by heightened economic, political and Brexit uncertainties. | |
| However, there is cause for cause for cautious optimism looking into next year. | |
| The squeeze on consumers should progressively ease in 2018 due to inflation falling back markedly (as the impact of sterling’s sharp fall drops out). However, earnings growth will likely remain relatively muted and employment may well lose momentum. | |
| 9.57am BST | |
| 09:57 | |
| Time for some reaction to those UK retail sales figures, which narrowly beat forecasts with a 0.3% rise. | |
| This is what Ruth Gregory, UK economist at Capital Economics, has to say: | |
| July’s retail sales figures were fairly encouraging given the recent intensification of the squeeze on consumers’ real incomes and suggest that talk of a sharp consumer slowdown has been overdone. | |
| Admittedly, the 0.3% monthly expansion in retail sales volumes (consensus 0.2%) was a bit weaker than the recent upbeat surveys had suggested. | |
| What’s more, the annual rate of sales volumes stood at just 1.3% in July – down from 2.8% in June and considerably lower than the 5-6% rates seen towards the end of 2016. | |
| But with July’s monthly rise in sales volumes building on June’s robust 0.6% increase, high-street spending appears to have carried a decent amount of momentum into Q3. There have been few signs of a sharp slowdown in spending growth away from the high street either. | |
| Keith Richardson, managing director retail sector at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: | |
| July’s wet weather might have dampened fashion sales but the supermarkets’ continued creativity together with a good month for homewares meant it was another good month for retailers overall. | |
| While headline inflation may have eased back slightly recently, shoppers are still feeling the squeeze from several months of rising prices and sluggish wage growth. | |
| But despite consumers finding their purses a little lighter each month, the supermarkets continue to find ways to help shoppers adapt their spending rather than rein it in – encouraging them to trade nights out for nights in and switch brands for own label, for example. | |
| 9.33am BST | 9.33am BST |
| 09:33 | 09:33 |
| UK retail sales growth flat but beats expectations | UK retail sales growth flat but beats expectations |
| July’s retail sales rose by 0.3% month-on-month according to the Office for National Statistics, above a Reuters consensus forecast of 0.2%. | July’s retail sales rose by 0.3% month-on-month according to the Office for National Statistics, above a Reuters consensus forecast of 0.2%. |
| June’s figures were revised down from 0.6% to 0.3%, a fairly sizeable revision. | June’s figures were revised down from 0.6% to 0.3%, a fairly sizeable revision. |
| Shoppers tightened their belts on most things except food, which was up 1.5%. | Shoppers tightened their belts on most things except food, which was up 1.5%. |
| Ole Black, the ONS’ top statistician calls it a “relatively subdued picture”, given that sales in all sectors but food declined. | Ole Black, the ONS’ top statistician calls it a “relatively subdued picture”, given that sales in all sectors but food declined. |
| Here’s a graph from the Office for National Statistics showing the sectoral breakdown. | Here’s a graph from the Office for National Statistics showing the sectoral breakdown. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.50am BST | at 9.50am BST |
| 9.23am BST | 9.23am BST |
| 09:23 | 09:23 |
| A quick update on President Donald Trump’s increasingly fractious relationship with the US business community, which has seen him disband two business councils. | A quick update on President Donald Trump’s increasingly fractious relationship with the US business community, which has seen him disband two business councils. |
| Apple chief executive Tim Cook is the latest chief executive to voice his disapproval of Trump’s lacklustre response to the far right’s manoeuvres in Charlottesville, Virginia. | Apple chief executive Tim Cook is the latest chief executive to voice his disapproval of Trump’s lacklustre response to the far right’s manoeuvres in Charlottesville, Virginia. |
| Here are some excerpts from an email to staff, leaked to Buzzfeed, in which Cook was pulling no punches. | Here are some excerpts from an email to staff, leaked to Buzzfeed, in which Cook was pulling no punches. |
| I disagree with the president and others who believe that there is a moral equivalence between white supremacists and Nazis, and those who oppose them by standing up for human rights. | I disagree with the president and others who believe that there is a moral equivalence between white supremacists and Nazis, and those who oppose them by standing up for human rights. |
| Equating the two runs counter to our ideals as Americans. | Equating the two runs counter to our ideals as Americans. |
| What occurred in Charlottesville has no place in our country. Hate is a cancer, and left unchecked it destroys everything in its path. | What occurred in Charlottesville has no place in our country. Hate is a cancer, and left unchecked it destroys everything in its path. |
| He added that “in the wake of the tragic and repulsive events in Charlottesville, we are stepping up to help organisations who work to rid our country of hate. | He added that “in the wake of the tragic and repulsive events in Charlottesville, we are stepping up to help organisations who work to rid our country of hate. |
| He’s putting his money where his mouth is too. Apple will make two $1m donations, one to the Southern Poverty Law Center and the other to the Anti-Defamation League. The tech giant will also double any donations that its staff make to those organisations and any other human rights groups until September 30. | He’s putting his money where his mouth is too. Apple will make two $1m donations, one to the Southern Poverty Law Center and the other to the Anti-Defamation League. The tech giant will also double any donations that its staff make to those organisations and any other human rights groups until September 30. |
| 8.57am BST | 8.57am BST |
| 08:57 | 08:57 |
| While we’re waiting for UK retail sales to drop, here’s a reminder of what looks likely to be one of the week’s biggest business news stories, President Donald Trump’s broadside at Amazon and growing friction with US captains of industry. | While we’re waiting for UK retail sales to drop, here’s a reminder of what looks likely to be one of the week’s biggest business news stories, President Donald Trump’s broadside at Amazon and growing friction with US captains of industry. |
| With a single tweet, the President knocked $5bn off Amazon’s share price. Amazon, of course, is run by Jeff Bezos, who also owns the Washington Post, never Trump’s biggest cheerleader. | With a single tweet, the President knocked $5bn off Amazon’s share price. Amazon, of course, is run by Jeff Bezos, who also owns the Washington Post, never Trump’s biggest cheerleader. |
| Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt - many jobs being lost! | Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt - many jobs being lost! |
| You can tell that jobs are important to President Trump thanks to the capital letters and exclamation marks in the tweet immediately preceding the assault on Amazon. | You can tell that jobs are important to President Trump thanks to the capital letters and exclamation marks in the tweet immediately preceding the assault on Amazon. |
| For every CEO that drops out of the Manufacturing Council, I have many to take their place. Grandstanders should not have gone on. JOBS! | For every CEO that drops out of the Manufacturing Council, I have many to take their place. Grandstanders should not have gone on. JOBS! |
| Trump’s relationship with the US business world is looking fragile after he disbanded his business advisory council of chief executives, after many of them fled for the exit in the light of his response to the violence surrounding a far right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. | Trump’s relationship with the US business world is looking fragile after he disbanded his business advisory council of chief executives, after many of them fled for the exit in the light of his response to the violence surrounding a far right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. |
| 8.40am BST | 8.40am BST |
| 08:40 | 08:40 |
| Let’s have another look ahead to today’s UK retail sales figures, due for release by the Office for National Statistics at 9.30am. | Let’s have another look ahead to today’s UK retail sales figures, due for release by the Office for National Statistics at 9.30am. |
| The British shopper is a hardy soul, not likely to be deterred by global concerns such as the threat of nuclear war, the rise of the far right in the US, or the impending four-year absence of Big Ben’s bongs. | The British shopper is a hardy soul, not likely to be deterred by global concerns such as the threat of nuclear war, the rise of the far right in the US, or the impending four-year absence of Big Ben’s bongs. |
| This resilience in the face of adversity is one reason why pundits expect a rise, albeit a modest one of 0.2%, in July retail sales. That’s a slowdown on 0.6% in June but any increase is better than nothing. | This resilience in the face of adversity is one reason why pundits expect a rise, albeit a modest one of 0.2%, in July retail sales. That’s a slowdown on 0.6% in June but any increase is better than nothing. |
| Here’s one more comment from Michael Hewson at CMC Markets:- | Here’s one more comment from Michael Hewson at CMC Markets:- |
| The squeeze on consumer incomes has been particularly apparent in this year’s retail sales data which got off to a poor start in Q1, but did improve somewhat in Q2, with a decent rebound at the end of the quarter. | The squeeze on consumer incomes has been particularly apparent in this year’s retail sales data which got off to a poor start in Q1, but did improve somewhat in Q2, with a decent rebound at the end of the quarter. |
| As Q3 gets underway there is some optimism that the July numbers will also show an improvement, if last week’s BRC retail sales numbers are any guide. | As Q3 gets underway there is some optimism that the July numbers will also show an improvement, if last week’s BRC retail sales numbers are any guide. |
| They do tend to act as a leading indicator to the official numbers, and show a modest improvement last week, with today’s retail sales numbers expected to show a rise of 0.2%, down from June’s 0.6% | They do tend to act as a leading indicator to the official numbers, and show a modest improvement last week, with today’s retail sales numbers expected to show a rise of 0.2%, down from June’s 0.6% |
| 8.09am BST | 8.09am BST |
| 08:09 | 08:09 |
| Kingfisher and Rank weigh on FTSE | Kingfisher and Rank weigh on FTSE |
| The FTSE has been open nearly 10 minutes now and is down around 15 points at 7417, after Kingfisher reported a worse-than-expected second quarter performance for its DIY chain B&Q. | The FTSE has been open nearly 10 minutes now and is down around 15 points at 7417, after Kingfisher reported a worse-than-expected second quarter performance for its DIY chain B&Q. |
| Here’s Panmure Gordon’s veteran City analyst David Buik with a brief glimpse at the numbers. | Here’s Panmure Gordon’s veteran City analyst David Buik with a brief glimpse at the numbers. |
| KINGFISHER like-for-like sales 2nd Q -1.9% - B&Q 2nd Q sales down 7.7%, - Like-for-like sales 4.7% - a little worse than expected | KINGFISHER like-for-like sales 2nd Q -1.9% - B&Q 2nd Q sales down 7.7%, - Like-for-like sales 4.7% - a little worse than expected |
| And there was nothing to shout “House” about either at Mecca Bingo owner Rank Group, where full year pre-tax profit is down 7% to £79.7m on revenues broadly flat at £707m. | And there was nothing to shout “House” about either at Mecca Bingo owner Rank Group, where full year pre-tax profit is down 7% to £79.7m on revenues broadly flat at £707m. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.14am BST | at 8.14am BST |
| 8.05am BST | 8.05am BST |
| 08:05 | 08:05 |
| Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, has been reading the runes regarding the ECB’s plans, with one eye on the meeting of central bank minds at next week’s Jackson Hole symposium. | Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, has been reading the runes regarding the ECB’s plans, with one eye on the meeting of central bank minds at next week’s Jackson Hole symposium. |
| We saw a another decent day for European markets yesterday helped in no small part by a report citing European Central Bank sources that ECB President Mario Draghi would not be making any references to monetary policy at next week’s Jackson Hole annual central bank symposium. | We saw a another decent day for European markets yesterday helped in no small part by a report citing European Central Bank sources that ECB President Mario Draghi would not be making any references to monetary policy at next week’s Jackson Hole annual central bank symposium. |
| This helped push the euro towards its lowest levels this month against the US dollar, while helping support European stocks. | This helped push the euro towards its lowest levels this month against the US dollar, while helping support European stocks. |
| Speculation had been building that we might get an early steer on the ECB’s intentions with respect to the slow winding down of the banks €60bn a month stimulus program. The report went on to say that any discussion would have to wait until the autumn, which suggests that we may well have to wait until the October meeting, before the ECB looks at showing its hand, on the timing of any tapering program. | Speculation had been building that we might get an early steer on the ECB’s intentions with respect to the slow winding down of the banks €60bn a month stimulus program. The report went on to say that any discussion would have to wait until the autumn, which suggests that we may well have to wait until the October meeting, before the ECB looks at showing its hand, on the timing of any tapering program. |
| 7.58am BST | 7.58am BST |
| 07:58 | 07:58 |
| Stock markets have been on something of a winning streak of late but that looks like it might come to an end today. | Stock markets have been on something of a winning streak of late but that looks like it might come to an end today. |
| It’s red ink across the board, according opening calls from the folks at IG. | It’s red ink across the board, according opening calls from the folks at IG. |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7410 -0.30%$DAX 12227 -0.30%$CAC 5159 -0.34%$IBEX 10522 -0.22%$MIB 21899 -0.39% | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7410 -0.30%$DAX 12227 -0.30%$CAC 5159 -0.34%$IBEX 10522 -0.22%$MIB 21899 -0.39% |
| 7.57am BST | 7.57am BST |
| 07:57 | 07:57 |
| Agenda: UK retail sales and US jobs data | Agenda: UK retail sales and US jobs data |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| July retail sales due for release at 9.30am will give us an inkling of how the UK consumer is faring given the ongoing squeeze on household incomes, which persists despite inflation coming in lower than expected earlier this week. Eurozone inflation data is out half an hour later at 10am. | July retail sales due for release at 9.30am will give us an inkling of how the UK consumer is faring given the ongoing squeeze on household incomes, which persists despite inflation coming in lower than expected earlier this week. Eurozone inflation data is out half an hour later at 10am. |
| Monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic is also in focus, after minutes of the Federal Reserve came out last night indicating a divide over when to raise rates. | Monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic is also in focus, after minutes of the Federal Reserve came out last night indicating a divide over when to raise rates. |
| European Central Bank minutes are due for release at 12.30pm today, with analysts watching out for some sign of the Bank’s €60bn-a-month stimulus programme being unwound. | European Central Bank minutes are due for release at 12.30pm today, with analysts watching out for some sign of the Bank’s €60bn-a-month stimulus programme being unwound. |
| In the City, there are are financial performance figures from casino and bingo firm Rank and Kingfisher, the group behind DIY brand B&Q. | In the City, there are are financial performance figures from casino and bingo firm Rank and Kingfisher, the group behind DIY brand B&Q. |
| On today’s agenda: | On today’s agenda: |
| • 9.30 BST: UK retail sales for July• 10.00 BST: Eurozone inflation data• 12.30 BST: European Central Bank minutes | • 9.30 BST: UK retail sales for July• 10.00 BST: Eurozone inflation data• 12.30 BST: European Central Bank minutes |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.01am BST | at 8.01am BST |