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Euro slides on ECB currency concerns - business live Euro slides on ECB currency concerns - as it happened
(35 minutes later)
1.44pm BST
13:44
Summary
That’s it for the day and the big news came from the European Central Bank minutes and UK retail sales.
ECB minutes revealed that the Bank’s policymakers are fretting about the euro “overshooting” against other currencies. That’s a concern because a strong euro would make exports from the 19-nation single currency bloc less competitive. The release of the minutes sent the euro on a downward trajectory.
In the UK, retail sales were up 0.3% month on month in July, slightly ahead of a forecast of 0.2%, an encouraging sign coming hot on the heels of an apparent easing of the cost of living squeeze. However June’s retail sales figure was revised downwards from 0.6% to 0.3%.
Elsewhere, European markets took a turn for the worse after a winning streak and the FTSE was down by mid-afternoon, after lacklustre results from B&Q owner Kingfisher and Mecca Bingo owner Rank.
On that note, it’s time to put the blog back into hibernation. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back bright and early tomorrow with all the latest developments.
1.41pm BST
13:41
Here’s Guardian retail guru Sarah Butler with the full lowdown on Asda’s first sales rise for three years.
1.17pm BST1.17pm BST
13:1713:17
In a note snappily titled “Eurozone: Between taper and tantrum”, analysts at Dutch bank ING have been unpicking those ECB minutes, which have put the euro on the slide.In a note snappily titled “Eurozone: Between taper and tantrum”, analysts at Dutch bank ING have been unpicking those ECB minutes, which have put the euro on the slide.
They are looking ahead to next week’s meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole and think the minutes reflect cautiousness at the ECB about unwinding monetary stimulus.They are looking ahead to next week’s meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole and think the minutes reflect cautiousness at the ECB about unwinding monetary stimulus.
Today’s minutes fit into the picture of an ECB which wants to steer and moderate the process towards tapering extremely cautiously. Yesterday’s reports that Mario Draghi would possibly not say anything new on the bank’s monetary policy at his speech at the Jackson Hole conference on 25 August had already given the same flavour.Today’s minutes fit into the picture of an ECB which wants to steer and moderate the process towards tapering extremely cautiously. Yesterday’s reports that Mario Draghi would possibly not say anything new on the bank’s monetary policy at his speech at the Jackson Hole conference on 25 August had already given the same flavour.
However, ING reckon this does not rule out the possibility of more subtle changes of tone at the ECB, most likely further towards the back end of the year.However, ING reckon this does not rule out the possibility of more subtle changes of tone at the ECB, most likely further towards the back end of the year.
All of this means that in our view the ECB will take another baby step towards tapering at the September meeting.All of this means that in our view the ECB will take another baby step towards tapering at the September meeting.
This could be done by putting more emphasis on the strong economic recovery which easily could do with somewhat less monetary stimulus and/or by using the well-known key phrase that the Governing Council has tasked the relevant committees to investigate several options for QE in 2018.This could be done by putting more emphasis on the strong economic recovery which easily could do with somewhat less monetary stimulus and/or by using the well-known key phrase that the Governing Council has tasked the relevant committees to investigate several options for QE in 2018.
Tapering will come but somehow the ECB itself does not yet entirely know when and how to do it.Tapering will come but somehow the ECB itself does not yet entirely know when and how to do it.
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UK retail sales growth may have been pretty lacklustre in July but nobody has told Asda. The British supermarket, part of the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart, has reported its first underlying sales growth for three years.UK retail sales growth may have been pretty lacklustre in July but nobody has told Asda. The British supermarket, part of the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart, has reported its first underlying sales growth for three years.
Like-for-like sales at the UK’s third biggest supermarket rose by 1.8% in its second quarter, helped by food price inflation and a comparison against a weak period last year.Like-for-like sales at the UK’s third biggest supermarket rose by 1.8% in its second quarter, helped by food price inflation and a comparison against a weak period last year.
That’s still quite the turnaround from the first quarter, when sales were down 2.8%, the eleventh straight quarterly decline.That’s still quite the turnaround from the first quarter, when sales were down 2.8%, the eleventh straight quarterly decline.
12.39pm BST12.39pm BST
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Euro slips as ECB minutes are releasedEuro slips as ECB minutes are released
Details of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting for July have been released.Details of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting for July have been released.
It seems policymakers are concerned about the euro “overshooting” in the future. In other words they’re worried the euro may strengthen too much.It seems policymakers are concerned about the euro “overshooting” in the future. In other words they’re worried the euro may strengthen too much.
The reason that’s a concern is that the eurozone relies quite heavily on exports and a stronger euro could make those exports less attractive to buyers outside the 19-nation bloc.The reason that’s a concern is that the eurozone relies quite heavily on exports and a stronger euro could make those exports less attractive to buyers outside the 19-nation bloc.
The euro hit a three-week low against the dollar after the ECB voiced its fears.The euro hit a three-week low against the dollar after the ECB voiced its fears.
The euro has stumbled after ECB voices concerns over the strengthening exchange rate https://t.co/WEGeQ0YIEd pic.twitter.com/l2Sx1AvEZyThe euro has stumbled after ECB voices concerns over the strengthening exchange rate https://t.co/WEGeQ0YIEd pic.twitter.com/l2Sx1AvEZy
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The Federation of Small Businesses has taken a look at July’s UK retail sales and they are not impressed. Here’s the verdict of Mike Cherry, the FSB’s national chairman.The Federation of Small Businesses has taken a look at July’s UK retail sales and they are not impressed. Here’s the verdict of Mike Cherry, the FSB’s national chairman.
Confidence among small retailers has plummeted over the first half of the year. We’re worryingly close to flat, or even negative, retail sales growth across the UK.Confidence among small retailers has plummeted over the first half of the year. We’re worryingly close to flat, or even negative, retail sales growth across the UK.
“With operating costs at their highest in four years, small business owners are paying themselves less, struggling to award pay rises and pushing up prices in an attempt to absorb increased outgoings. This threatens to further stifle already reduced consumer spending power.“With operating costs at their highest in four years, small business owners are paying themselves less, struggling to award pay rises and pushing up prices in an attempt to absorb increased outgoings. This threatens to further stifle already reduced consumer spending power.
“Inflationary pressure, Brexit uncertainty and delays to business rates relief measures are making it almost impossible for small retailers to invest and plan for the future. In this unforgiving climate, the Government needs to carefully consider its inaugural Budget. Stealth tax grabs in the form of hikes to fuel duty and insurance premium tax will make a bad situation worse.“Inflationary pressure, Brexit uncertainty and delays to business rates relief measures are making it almost impossible for small retailers to invest and plan for the future. In this unforgiving climate, the Government needs to carefully consider its inaugural Budget. Stealth tax grabs in the form of hikes to fuel duty and insurance premium tax will make a bad situation worse.
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A quick check on markets, currencies and commodities as we head towards noon.A quick check on markets, currencies and commodities as we head towards noon.
The FTSE100 is down 25 at 7407 after disappointing numbers from Kingfisher and RankThe FTSE100 is down 25 at 7407 after disappointing numbers from Kingfisher and Rank
Germany’s DAX is 12 points lower at 122251, while the French CAC is off 8.6 points at 5168Germany’s DAX is 12 points lower at 122251, while the French CAC is off 8.6 points at 5168
Sterling is at $1.2858 and €1.1694Sterling is at $1.2858 and €1.1694
Brent crude oil is flat at $50.24 per barrelBrent crude oil is flat at $50.24 per barrel
11.44am BST11.44am BST
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The Guardian business desk’s ace new economics correspondent Richard Partington has put some flesh on the bones of those UK retail sales figures. Here’s his version of events.The Guardian business desk’s ace new economics correspondent Richard Partington has put some flesh on the bones of those UK retail sales figures. Here’s his version of events.
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10.53am BST10.53am BST
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Time for a bit of light relief after those chewy retail sales figures.Time for a bit of light relief after those chewy retail sales figures.
Harper’s has published a transcript of the jury selection process in the trial of beleaguered pharmaceuticals chief executive Martin Shkreli, who was convicted of fraud earlier this month.Harper’s has published a transcript of the jury selection process in the trial of beleaguered pharmaceuticals chief executive Martin Shkreli, who was convicted of fraud earlier this month.
It’s fair to say that potential jurors were tough to find, with most already having formed some pretty strong opinions on Shkreli, who has been widely condemned after his company Turing raised the price of drugs for conditions including HIV/AIDS. More than two hundred were excused as a result.It’s fair to say that potential jurors were tough to find, with most already having formed some pretty strong opinions on Shkreli, who has been widely condemned after his company Turing raised the price of drugs for conditions including HIV/AIDS. More than two hundred were excused as a result.
It started badly, with prospective Juror No 1 declaring: “I’m aware of the defendant and I hate him.”It started badly, with prospective Juror No 1 declaring: “I’m aware of the defendant and I hate him.”
Another candidate described Shkreli as the “most hated man in America” while one felt incapable of being impartial because he “kind of looks like a d***”.Another candidate described Shkreli as the “most hated man in America” while one felt incapable of being impartial because he “kind of looks like a d***”.
But perhaps the most heinous accusation levelled at Shkreli by jurors was that he “disrespected the Wu-Tang Clan”, the influential New York hip-hop group that enjoyed a meteoric rise in the 1990s with their distinctive sound.But perhaps the most heinous accusation levelled at Shkreli by jurors was that he “disrespected the Wu-Tang Clan”, the influential New York hip-hop group that enjoyed a meteoric rise in the 1990s with their distinctive sound.
Shkreli was the man who bought the sole copy of the Wu-Tang’s special release “Once Upon A Time in Shaolin” for $2m in 2015, on the condition that he didn’t release it for 88 years.Shkreli was the man who bought the sole copy of the Wu-Tang’s special release “Once Upon A Time in Shaolin” for $2m in 2015, on the condition that he didn’t release it for 88 years.
Shkreli duly leaked it to celebrate Donald Trump’s election, sparking a war of words with the group’s members including Ghostface Killah, who deemed him a “sh*thead”.Shkreli duly leaked it to celebrate Donald Trump’s election, sparking a war of words with the group’s members including Ghostface Killah, who deemed him a “sh*thead”.
Of course, any fan of the hip-hop outfit could have told Shkreli that the Wu-Tang Clan Ain’t Nuthing Ta F’ Wit and advised him to Protect Ya Neck, or risk crying Tearz.Of course, any fan of the hip-hop outfit could have told Shkreli that the Wu-Tang Clan Ain’t Nuthing Ta F’ Wit and advised him to Protect Ya Neck, or risk crying Tearz.
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at 10.59am BSTat 10.59am BST
10.30am BST10.30am BST
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Eurozone inflation holds steady at 1.3%Eurozone inflation holds steady at 1.3%
Price rises in the 19 countries that share the euro currency held firm during July, with inflation sticking at 1.3% excluding energy and unprocessed food, according to the European statistics office Eurostat.Price rises in the 19 countries that share the euro currency held firm during July, with inflation sticking at 1.3% excluding energy and unprocessed food, according to the European statistics office Eurostat.
Inflation remains below the European Central Bank’s target of 2% but has ticked up slightly on 1.2% in June and came in above analysts’ forecasts of 1.2%.Inflation remains below the European Central Bank’s target of 2% but has ticked up slightly on 1.2% in June and came in above analysts’ forecasts of 1.2%.
We may get an indication later today of whether the ECB is moving towards an unwinding of its monetary stimulus programme, with the Bank’s Governing Council meeting minutes from July due to be published.We may get an indication later today of whether the ECB is moving towards an unwinding of its monetary stimulus programme, with the Bank’s Governing Council meeting minutes from July due to be published.
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at 10.54am BSTat 10.54am BST
10.22am BST10.22am BST
10:2210:22
Here’s some more detail on those lacklustre numbers from B&Q and Screwfix owner Kingfisher.Here’s some more detail on those lacklustre numbers from B&Q and Screwfix owner Kingfisher.
Analysts at AJ Bell have noted that despite Kingfisher being £368m of the way through a £600m share buyback, its stock has slumped to its lowest level since late 2014.Analysts at AJ Bell have noted that despite Kingfisher being £368m of the way through a £600m share buyback, its stock has slumped to its lowest level since late 2014.
The failure of this largesse to support the shares raises further questions over whether buybacks are a good value of creating long-term value for investors or not.The failure of this largesse to support the shares raises further questions over whether buybacks are a good value of creating long-term value for investors or not.
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10.03am BST
10:03
Here comes Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club, without whose analysis no retail sales release would be complete. We’ve heard the numbers, which were better than expected, but here’s Howard’s slightly gloomier take on the shape of things to come:
The outlook for consumers looks set to be highly challenging over the latter months of the year, even though a modicum of relief has come from consumer price inflation easing back to 2.6% in July from a near four-year high of 2.9% in May.
Real income growth is currently negative, and it looks likely to remain so through the rest of 2017. Latest Office for National Statistics data show that total real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.5% in the three months to June, which was marginally down from a peak drop of 0.6% in May. Inflation will likely be close to 3% through the latter months of 2017, while earnings growth seems set to hover around 2%
Furthermore, consumer confidence is brittle and caution over making major purchases appears to have been reinforced by heightened economic, political and Brexit uncertainties.
However, there is cause for cause for cautious optimism looking into next year.
The squeeze on consumers should progressively ease in 2018 due to inflation falling back markedly (as the impact of sterling’s sharp fall drops out). However, earnings growth will likely remain relatively muted and employment may well lose momentum.
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9.57am BST
09:57
Time for some reaction to those UK retail sales figures, which narrowly beat forecasts with a 0.3% rise.
This is what Ruth Gregory, UK economist at Capital Economics, has to say:
July’s retail sales figures were fairly encouraging given the recent intensification of the squeeze on consumers’ real incomes and suggest that talk of a sharp consumer slowdown has been overdone.
Admittedly, the 0.3% monthly expansion in retail sales volumes (consensus 0.2%) was a bit weaker than the recent upbeat surveys had suggested.
What’s more, the annual rate of sales volumes stood at just 1.3% in July – down from 2.8% in June and considerably lower than the 5-6% rates seen towards the end of 2016.
But with July’s monthly rise in sales volumes building on June’s robust 0.6% increase, high-street spending appears to have carried a decent amount of momentum into Q3. There have been few signs of a sharp slowdown in spending growth away from the high street either.
Keith Richardson, managing director retail sector at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said:
July’s wet weather might have dampened fashion sales but the supermarkets’ continued creativity together with a good month for homewares meant it was another good month for retailers overall.
While headline inflation may have eased back slightly recently, shoppers are still feeling the squeeze from several months of rising prices and sluggish wage growth.
But despite consumers finding their purses a little lighter each month, the supermarkets continue to find ways to help shoppers adapt their spending rather than rein it in – encouraging them to trade nights out for nights in and switch brands for own label, for example.
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at 10.55am BST
9.33am BST
09:33
UK retail sales growth flat but beats expectations
July’s retail sales rose by 0.3% month-on-month according to the Office for National Statistics, above a Reuters consensus forecast of 0.2%.
June’s figures were revised down from 0.6% to 0.3%, a fairly sizeable revision.
Shoppers tightened their belts on most things except food, which was up 1.5%.
Ole Black, the ONS’ top statistician calls it a “relatively subdued picture”, given that sales in all sectors but food declined.
Here’s a graph from the Office for National Statistics showing the sectoral breakdown.
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9.23am BST
09:23
A quick update on President Donald Trump’s increasingly fractious relationship with the US business community, which has seen him disband two business councils.
Apple chief executive Tim Cook is the latest chief executive to voice his disapproval of Trump’s lacklustre response to the far right’s manoeuvres in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Here are some excerpts from an email to staff, leaked to Buzzfeed, in which Cook was pulling no punches.
I disagree with the president and others who believe that there is a moral equivalence between white supremacists and Nazis, and those who oppose them by standing up for human rights.
Equating the two runs counter to our ideals as Americans.
What occurred in Charlottesville has no place in our country. Hate is a cancer, and left unchecked it destroys everything in its path.
He added that “in the wake of the tragic and repulsive events in Charlottesville, we are stepping up to help organisations who work to rid our country of hate.
He’s putting his money where his mouth is too. Apple will make two $1m donations, one to the Southern Poverty Law Center and the other to the Anti-Defamation League. The tech giant will also double any donations that its staff make to those organisations and any other human rights groups until September 30.
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8.57am BST
08:57
While we’re waiting for UK retail sales to drop, here’s a reminder of what looks likely to be one of the week’s biggest business news stories, President Donald Trump’s broadside at Amazon and growing friction with US captains of industry.
With a single tweet, the President knocked $5bn off the Amazon share price. Amazon, of course, is run by Jeff Bezos, who also owns the Washington Post, never Trump’s biggest cheerleader.
Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt - many jobs being lost!
You can tell that jobs are important to President Trump thanks to the capital letters and exclamation marks in the tweet immediately preceding the assault on Amazon.
For every CEO that drops out of the Manufacturing Council, I have many to take their place. Grandstanders should not have gone on. JOBS!
Trump’s relationship with the US business world is looking fragile after he disbanded his business advisory council of chief executives, after many of them fled for the exit in the light of his response to the violence surrounding a far right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia.
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8.40am BST
08:40
Let’s have another look ahead to today’s UK retail sales figures, due for release by the Office for National Statistics at 9.30am.
The British shopper is a hardy soul, not likely to be deterred by global concerns such as the threat of nuclear war, the rise of the far right in the US, or the impending four-year absence of Big Ben’s bongs.
This resilience in the face of adversity is one reason why pundits expect a rise, albeit a modest one of 0.2%, in July retail sales. That’s a slowdown on 0.6% in June but any increase is better than nothing.
Here’s one more comment from Michael Hewson at CMC Markets:-
The squeeze on consumer incomes has been particularly apparent in this year’s retail sales data which got off to a poor start in Q1, but did improve somewhat in Q2, with a decent rebound at the end of the quarter.
As Q3 gets underway there is some optimism that the July numbers will also show an improvement, if last week’s BRC retail sales numbers are any guide.
They do tend to act as a leading indicator to the official numbers, and show a modest improvement last week, with today’s retail sales numbers expected to show a rise of 0.2%, down from June’s 0.6%
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8.09am BST
08:09
Kingfisher and Rank weigh on FTSE
The FTSE has been open nearly 10 minutes now and is down around 15 points at 7417, after Kingfisher reported a worse-than-expected second quarter performance for its DIY chain B&Q.
Here’s Panmure Gordon’s veteran City analyst David Buik with a brief glimpse at the numbers.
KINGFISHER like-for-like sales 2nd Q -1.9% - B&Q 2nd Q sales down 7.7%, - Like-for-like sales 4.7% - a little worse than expected
And there was nothing to shout “House” about either at Mecca Bingo owner Rank Group, where full year pre-tax profit is down 7% to £79.7m on revenues broadly flat at £707m.
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8.05am BST
08:05
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, has been reading the runes regarding the ECB’s plans, with one eye on the meeting of central bank minds at next week’s Jackson Hole symposium.
We saw a another decent day for European markets yesterday helped in no small part by a report citing European Central Bank sources that ECB President Mario Draghi would not be making any references to monetary policy at next week’s Jackson Hole annual central bank symposium.
This helped push the euro towards its lowest levels this month against the US dollar, while helping support European stocks.
Speculation had been building that we might get an early steer on the ECB’s intentions with respect to the slow winding down of the banks €60bn a month stimulus program. The report went on to say that any discussion would have to wait until the autumn, which suggests that we may well have to wait until the October meeting, before the ECB looks at showing its hand, on the timing of any tapering program.
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7.58am BST
07:58
Stock markets in Europe have been on something of a winning streak of late but that looks like it might come to an end today.
It’s red ink across the board, according opening calls from the folks at IG.
Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7410 -0.30%$DAX 12227 -0.30%$CAC 5159 -0.34%$IBEX 10522 -0.22%$MIB 21899 -0.39%
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at 10.57am BST
7.57am BST
07:57
Agenda: UK retail sales and US jobs data
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
July retail sales due for release at 9.30am will give us an inkling of how the UK consumer is faring given the ongoing squeeze on household incomes, which persists despite inflation coming in lower than expected earlier this week. Eurozone inflation data is out half an hour later at 10am.
Monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic is also in focus, after minutes of the Federal Reserve came out last night indicating a divide over when to raise rates.
European Central Bank minutes are due for release at 12.30pm today, with analysts watching out for some sign of the Bank’s €60bn-a-month stimulus programme being unwound.
In the City, there are are financial performance figures from casino and bingo firm Rank and Kingfisher, the group behind DIY brand B&Q.
On today’s agenda:
• 9.30 BST: UK retail sales for July• 10.00 BST: Eurozone inflation data• 12.30 BST: European Central Bank minutes
Updated
at 8.01am BST