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| McConnell Gambled on Health Care and the Alabama Senate Race. He Lost. | McConnell Gambled on Health Care and the Alabama Senate Race. He Lost. |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| WASHINGTON — Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, is not a man who leaves things to chance. But this week, in both policy and politics, Mr. McConnell gambled — and lost big. | WASHINGTON — Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, is not a man who leaves things to chance. But this week, in both policy and politics, Mr. McConnell gambled — and lost big. |
| The defeat of Senator Luther Strange, the Alabama Republican who was defending the Senate seat he was appointed to, coupled with the implosion of the party’s last-ditch attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, marked twin setbacks for Mr. McConnell, who is struggling to govern with an already slim majority. | The defeat of Senator Luther Strange, the Alabama Republican who was defending the Senate seat he was appointed to, coupled with the implosion of the party’s last-ditch attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, marked twin setbacks for Mr. McConnell, who is struggling to govern with an already slim majority. |
| Now, a majority leader celebrated for years as a brilliant tactician looks vulnerable — to dissent within his Senate conference and to insurgents from President Trump’s populist wing of the party, who are looking to storm the Senate in 2018. And if Republicans fail to fulfill their next promise — overhauling the tax code — the consequences will be dire. | Now, a majority leader celebrated for years as a brilliant tactician looks vulnerable — to dissent within his Senate conference and to insurgents from President Trump’s populist wing of the party, who are looking to storm the Senate in 2018. And if Republicans fail to fulfill their next promise — overhauling the tax code — the consequences will be dire. |
| “We have to deliver on tax reform,” said Senator John Thune, the South Dakota Republican who is a member of the party’s leadership. “I don’t think failure is an option.” | |
| Mr. Strange lost his primary runoff to Roy Moore, the colorful former chief justice of Alabama, who made attacking Mr. McConnell a central feature of his campaign. Allies of Mr. McConnell poured money into the primary contest, painting Mr. Strange as a reliable Trump loyalist and Mr. Moore as a lifelong, untrustworthy politician. | Mr. Strange lost his primary runoff to Roy Moore, the colorful former chief justice of Alabama, who made attacking Mr. McConnell a central feature of his campaign. Allies of Mr. McConnell poured money into the primary contest, painting Mr. Strange as a reliable Trump loyalist and Mr. Moore as a lifelong, untrustworthy politician. |
| But that story line never broke through. In fact, the race spotlighted growing divisions between establishment Republicans personified by Mr. McConnell and his allies and Trump Republicans, even though it was Mr. Strange who had the president’s endorsement. | But that story line never broke through. In fact, the race spotlighted growing divisions between establishment Republicans personified by Mr. McConnell and his allies and Trump Republicans, even though it was Mr. Strange who had the president’s endorsement. |
| The gap was so wide that when Mr. Trump campaigned for Mr. Strange, he tried to distance Mr. Strange from Mr. McConnell. | The gap was so wide that when Mr. Trump campaigned for Mr. Strange, he tried to distance Mr. Strange from Mr. McConnell. |
| “They say he’s friendly with Mitch — he doesn’t even know Mitch McConnell,” Mr. Trump told a raucous crowd of several thousand people. | “They say he’s friendly with Mitch — he doesn’t even know Mitch McConnell,” Mr. Trump told a raucous crowd of several thousand people. |
| That wasn’t quite true. The Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee that Mr. McConnell helped found, spent nearly $9 million trying to elect Mr. Strange, said Steven Law, its president and chief executive officer. | That wasn’t quite true. The Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee that Mr. McConnell helped found, spent nearly $9 million trying to elect Mr. Strange, said Steven Law, its president and chief executive officer. |
| With Democrats across the country energized by the election of Mr. Trump, some analysts say Democrats now have an outside chance to pick up the seat — even in a deeply conservative state like Alabama. But if Mr. Moore wins, he will almost certainly be a wild card in the Senate, where Mr. McConnell is already struggling to keep his majority of 52 Republicans in line. | With Democrats across the country energized by the election of Mr. Trump, some analysts say Democrats now have an outside chance to pick up the seat — even in a deeply conservative state like Alabama. But if Mr. Moore wins, he will almost certainly be a wild card in the Senate, where Mr. McConnell is already struggling to keep his majority of 52 Republicans in line. |
| “The stakes here are high,” said Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist who is close to Mr. McConnell. “His majority of 52 is slim and it’s even slimmer when you consider at any given time there are four to six of them who are contrarians. So if you take out a Luther, who is not a contrarian, and you throw in a Roy Moore, who’s going to be a contrarian, that makes the majority even less effective and productive.” | “The stakes here are high,” said Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist who is close to Mr. McConnell. “His majority of 52 is slim and it’s even slimmer when you consider at any given time there are four to six of them who are contrarians. So if you take out a Luther, who is not a contrarian, and you throw in a Roy Moore, who’s going to be a contrarian, that makes the majority even less effective and productive.” |
| And it could get worse — much worse. Buoyed by Mr. Moore’s victory, conservatives like the former Trump strategist Stephen K. Bannon and Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, now speak of separating “Trumpism” from Mr. Trump, and they are throwing themselves behind insurgent populists around the country. | And it could get worse — much worse. Buoyed by Mr. Moore’s victory, conservatives like the former Trump strategist Stephen K. Bannon and Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, now speak of separating “Trumpism” from Mr. Trump, and they are throwing themselves behind insurgent populists around the country. |
| Already, “Trumpist” candidates have emerged to challenge Senators Dean Heller of Nevada and Jeff Flake of Arizona in Republican primaries next year. Mr. Bannon is courting another firebrand, State Senator Chris McDaniel, to challenge Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, who embodies low-key country-club Republicanism. | Already, “Trumpist” candidates have emerged to challenge Senators Dean Heller of Nevada and Jeff Flake of Arizona in Republican primaries next year. Mr. Bannon is courting another firebrand, State Senator Chris McDaniel, to challenge Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, who embodies low-key country-club Republicanism. |
| And Mr. Bannon and allies are looking for a populist candidate to run for Tennessee’s Senate seat, which opened up Tuesday when Senator Bob Corker, a Republican, announced that he would not run for re-election. | And Mr. Bannon and allies are looking for a populist candidate to run for Tennessee’s Senate seat, which opened up Tuesday when Senator Bob Corker, a Republican, announced that he would not run for re-election. |
| Victories by such candidates would drastically remake the Senate, and could threaten Mr. McConnell’s leadership. Already, conservatives are smelling blood in the water. | Victories by such candidates would drastically remake the Senate, and could threaten Mr. McConnell’s leadership. Already, conservatives are smelling blood in the water. |
| “Today, every conservative in America wishes they had a Roy Moore running for the Senate in their state.’’ said Richard Viguerie, the conservative direct mail guru. He called Mr. Moore’s victory “a stunning rejection of Mitch McConnell’s corrupt and incompetent leadership.’’ | “Today, every conservative in America wishes they had a Roy Moore running for the Senate in their state.’’ said Richard Viguerie, the conservative direct mail guru. He called Mr. Moore’s victory “a stunning rejection of Mitch McConnell’s corrupt and incompetent leadership.’’ |
| In the Senate, Mr. McConnell has a deep well of support within his caucus, in part because he is so effective at raising money to re-elect them. Even so, Republicans are clearly frustrated by the legislative gridlock that has gripped the chamber, especially the on-again, off-again effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. The latest effort ended on Tuesday when Mr. McConnell concluded that he did not have the votes to pass the so-called Graham-Cassidy bill, which would have taken money spent under the law and given it to the states in the form of block grants. | In the Senate, Mr. McConnell has a deep well of support within his caucus, in part because he is so effective at raising money to re-elect them. Even so, Republicans are clearly frustrated by the legislative gridlock that has gripped the chamber, especially the on-again, off-again effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. The latest effort ended on Tuesday when Mr. McConnell concluded that he did not have the votes to pass the so-called Graham-Cassidy bill, which would have taken money spent under the law and given it to the states in the form of block grants. |
| “I wasn’t sent up here to sit around and talk,” complained Senator John Kennedy, a freshman Republican from Louisiana. “I was sent up here to make ordinary Americans’ lives better.” | “I wasn’t sent up here to sit around and talk,” complained Senator John Kennedy, a freshman Republican from Louisiana. “I was sent up here to make ordinary Americans’ lives better.” |
| But Mr. Kennedy said he did not blame Mr. McConnell for being unable to muster the 50 votes necessary to pass the bill by Saturday, when a special rule allowing passage with a simple majority will expire. “This is not a Mitch McConnell problem,” he said. “He’s got a lot more patience than I would have had.” | But Mr. Kennedy said he did not blame Mr. McConnell for being unable to muster the 50 votes necessary to pass the bill by Saturday, when a special rule allowing passage with a simple majority will expire. “This is not a Mitch McConnell problem,” he said. “He’s got a lot more patience than I would have had.” |
| In one telling moment, Mr. McConnell let Mr. Graham break the news that leadership did not have the votes — a signal that it was Mr. Graham and Mr. Cassidy, and not the leadership, who had fallen short. Mr. Thune suggested Mr. McConnell — who had declared the health care repeal effort dead when an earlier effort failed in July — played a hands-off role this time. | In one telling moment, Mr. McConnell let Mr. Graham break the news that leadership did not have the votes — a signal that it was Mr. Graham and Mr. Cassidy, and not the leadership, who had fallen short. Mr. Thune suggested Mr. McConnell — who had declared the health care repeal effort dead when an earlier effort failed in July — played a hands-off role this time. |
| “He saw that this thing was gaining some momentum,’’ Mr. Thune said, “and I think he wanted to give it an opportunity to breathe a little bit, and see if they didn’t have a way of getting to 50.’’ | “He saw that this thing was gaining some momentum,’’ Mr. Thune said, “and I think he wanted to give it an opportunity to breathe a little bit, and see if they didn’t have a way of getting to 50.’’ |