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McConnell Gambled on Health Care and the Alabama Senate Race. He Lost. McConnell Gambled on Health Care and the Alabama Senate Race. He Lost.
(about 3 hours later)
WASHINGTON — Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, is not a man who leaves things to chance. But this week, in both policy and politics, Mr. McConnell gambled — and lost big.WASHINGTON — Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, is not a man who leaves things to chance. But this week, in both policy and politics, Mr. McConnell gambled — and lost big.
The defeat of Senator Luther Strange, the Alabama Republican who was defending the Senate seat he was appointed to, coupled with the implosion of the party’s last-ditch attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, marked twin setbacks for Mr. McConnell, who is struggling to govern with an already slim majority.The defeat of Senator Luther Strange, the Alabama Republican who was defending the Senate seat he was appointed to, coupled with the implosion of the party’s last-ditch attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, marked twin setbacks for Mr. McConnell, who is struggling to govern with an already slim majority.
Now, a majority leader celebrated for years as a brilliant tactician looks vulnerable — to dissent within his Senate conference and to insurgents from President Trump’s populist wing of the party, who are looking to storm the Senate in 2018. And if Republicans fail to fulfill their next promise — overhauling the tax code — the consequences will be dire.Now, a majority leader celebrated for years as a brilliant tactician looks vulnerable — to dissent within his Senate conference and to insurgents from President Trump’s populist wing of the party, who are looking to storm the Senate in 2018. And if Republicans fail to fulfill their next promise — overhauling the tax code — the consequences will be dire.
“We have to deliver on tax reform,” said Senator John Thune, the South Dakota Republican who is a member of the party’s leadership. “I don’t think failure is an option.” “We have to deliver on tax reform,” said Senator John Thune, Republican of South Dakota, who is a member of the party’s leadership. “I don’t think failure is an option.”
Mr. Strange lost his primary runoff to Roy Moore, the colorful former chief justice of Alabama, who made attacking Mr. McConnell a central feature of his campaign. Allies of Mr. McConnell poured money into the primary contest, painting Mr. Strange as a reliable Trump loyalist and Mr. Moore as a lifelong, untrustworthy politician. The Alabama race, and the unsuccessful repeal effort, have exposed how deeply dissatisfied conservatives are with Mr. McConnell, a taciturn Kentuckian who has been in the Senate since 1985 and has led his conference for the past decade. Even Mr. McConnell’s allies concede that the failure to dismantle former President Barack Obama’s health care law helped fuel the outcome in Alabama.
“There is this acute, continued frustration amongst the Republican base at the sluggishness of the Trump agenda in Washington,” said Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff to Mr. McConnell. “That’s not imagined; that’s real.”
Mr. Strange lost his primary runoff to Roy Moore, a provocative former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, who made attacking Mr. McConnell a central feature of his campaign.
“McConnell has become synonymous with gridlock,” said Richard C. Fording, a political scientist at the University of Alabama who followed the race closely. “I think people here are frustrated, and they have bought into this narrative that Mitch McConnell is to blame, that he’s incompetent, that he’s part of the establishment, that he’s controlled by special interests and synonymous with the status quo.”
Allies of Mr. McConnell poured millions into the runoff contest, painting Mr. Strange as a reliable Trump loyalist and Mr. Moore as a lifelong, untrustworthy politician.
But that story line never broke through. In fact, the race spotlighted growing divisions between establishment Republicans personified by Mr. McConnell and his allies and Trump Republicans, even though it was Mr. Strange who had the president’s endorsement.But that story line never broke through. In fact, the race spotlighted growing divisions between establishment Republicans personified by Mr. McConnell and his allies and Trump Republicans, even though it was Mr. Strange who had the president’s endorsement.
The gap was so wide that when Mr. Trump campaigned for Mr. Strange, he tried to distance Mr. Strange from Mr. McConnell. The gap was so wide that when Mr. Trump campaigned for Mr. Strange, he tried to distance the senator from the Republican leader.
“They say he’s friendly with Mitch — he doesn’t even know Mitch McConnell,” Mr. Trump told a raucous crowd of several thousand people.“They say he’s friendly with Mitch — he doesn’t even know Mitch McConnell,” Mr. Trump told a raucous crowd of several thousand people.
That wasn’t quite true. The Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee that Mr. McConnell helped found, spent nearly $9 million trying to elect Mr. Strange, said Steven Law, its president and chief executive officer. That was not quite true. The Senate Leadership Fund, a “super PAC” that Mr. McConnell helped found, spent nearly $9 million trying to elect Mr. Strange, said Steven Law, its president and chief executive. Mr. Law, like Mr. Holmes, attributed the outcome of the campaign to “dissatisfaction with the sluggish pace of change in Washington,” adding that “Republican primary voters are just as angry in 2017 as they were in 2016.”
With Democrats across the country energized by the election of Mr. Trump, some analysts say Democrats now have an outside chance to pick up the seat — even in a deeply conservative state like Alabama. But if Mr. Moore wins, he will almost certainly be a wild card in the Senate, where Mr. McConnell is already struggling to keep his majority of 52 Republicans in line. With Democrats across the country energized by the election of Mr. Trump, some analysts say Democrats now have an outside chance to pick up the seat — even in a deeply conservative state like Alabama. But if Mr. Moore wins, he will almost certainly be a wild card in the Senate, where Mr. McConnell is already struggling to keep the 52 Republicans in line.
“The stakes here are high,” said Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist who is close to Mr. McConnell. “His majority of 52 is slim and it’s even slimmer when you consider at any given time there are four to six of them who are contrarians. So if you take out a Luther, who is not a contrarian, and you throw in a Roy Moore, who’s going to be a contrarian, that makes the majority even less effective and productive.” “The stakes here are high,” said Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist who is close to Mr. McConnell. “His majority of 52 is slim, and it’s even slimmer when you consider at any given time there are four to six of them who are contrarians. So if you take out a Luther, who is not a contrarian, and you throw in a Roy Moore, who’s going to be a contrarian, that makes the majority even less effective and productive.”
And it could get worse — much worse. Buoyed by Mr. Moore’s victory, conservatives like the former Trump strategist Stephen K. Bannon and Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, now speak of separating “Trumpism” from Mr. Trump, and they are throwing themselves behind insurgent populists around the country.And it could get worse — much worse. Buoyed by Mr. Moore’s victory, conservatives like the former Trump strategist Stephen K. Bannon and Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, now speak of separating “Trumpism” from Mr. Trump, and they are throwing themselves behind insurgent populists around the country.
Already, “Trumpist” candidates have emerged to challenge Senators Dean Heller of Nevada and Jeff Flake of Arizona in Republican primaries next year. Mr. Bannon is courting another firebrand, State Senator Chris McDaniel, to challenge Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, who embodies low-key country-club Republicanism. Already, Trumpist candidates have emerged to challenge Senators Dean Heller of Nevada and Jeff Flake of Arizona in Republican primary races next year.
In Mississippi, Mr. Bannon is courting another firebrand, State Senator Chris McDaniel, to challenge Senator Roger Wicker, who embodies low-key country-club Republicanism.
And Mr. Bannon and allies are looking for a populist candidate to run for Tennessee’s Senate seat, which opened up Tuesday when Senator Bob Corker, a Republican, announced that he would not run for re-election.And Mr. Bannon and allies are looking for a populist candidate to run for Tennessee’s Senate seat, which opened up Tuesday when Senator Bob Corker, a Republican, announced that he would not run for re-election.
Victories by such candidates would drastically remake the Senate, and could threaten Mr. McConnell’s leadership. Already, conservatives are smelling blood in the water. Victories by such candidates would drastically remake the Senate, and could threaten Mr. McConnell’s leadership. Already, conservatives are smelling blood.
“Today, every conservative in America wishes they had a Roy Moore running for the Senate in their state.’’ said Richard Viguerie, the conservative direct mail guru. He called Mr. Moore’s victory “a stunning rejection of Mitch McConnell’s corrupt and incompetent leadership.’’ “If this was a football team and you lost this many times, you’d start firing the coaches,” said David Bozell, the president of For America, a conservative advocacy group.
In the Senate, Mr. McConnell has a deep well of support within his caucus, in part because he is so effective at raising money to re-elect them. Even so, Republicans are clearly frustrated by the legislative gridlock that has gripped the chamber, especially the on-again, off-again effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. The latest effort ended on Tuesday when Mr. McConnell concluded that he did not have the votes to pass the so-called Graham-Cassidy bill, which would have taken money spent under the law and given it to the states in the form of block grants. Richard A. Viguerie, the conservative direct-mail guru, called Mr. Moore’s victory “a stunning rejection of Mitch McConnell’s corrupt and incompetent leadership.”
But in the Senate, Mr. McConnell has a deep well of support within his conference, in part because he is so effective a raising money to re-elect his fellow Republicans. He also has a thick skin.
“Senator McConnell is not a hot personality,” said Ralph Reed, the chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, an organization of social conservatives. “He doesn’t have real high highs, and he doesn’t have real low lows, and he’s been at this a long time, and he’s smart enough and wise enough to know that there are good days and not so good days in this business.”
Senate Republicans are clearly frustrated by the legislative gridlock that has gripped the chamber, especially the on-again, off-again effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. The latest attempt ended Tuesday when Mr. McConnell concluded that he did not have the votes to pass the so-called Graham-Cassidy bill, which would have taken money spent under the law and given it to the states in the form of block grants.
“I wasn’t sent up here to sit around and talk,” complained Senator John Kennedy, a freshman Republican from Louisiana. “I was sent up here to make ordinary Americans’ lives better.”“I wasn’t sent up here to sit around and talk,” complained Senator John Kennedy, a freshman Republican from Louisiana. “I was sent up here to make ordinary Americans’ lives better.”
But Mr. Kennedy said he did not blame Mr. McConnell for being unable to muster the 50 votes necessary to pass the bill by Saturday, when a special rule allowing passage with a simple majority will expire. “This is not a Mitch McConnell problem,” he said. “He’s got a lot more patience than I would have had.” But Mr. Kennedy said he did not blame Mr. McConnell.
In one telling moment, Mr. McConnell let Mr. Graham break the news that leadership did not have the votes — a signal that it was Mr. Graham and Mr. Cassidy, and not the leadership, who had fallen short. Mr. Thune suggested Mr. McConnell — who had declared the health care repeal effort dead when an earlier effort failed in July — played a hands-off role this time. “This is not a Mitch McConnell problem,” he said. “He’s got a lot more patience than I would have had.”
“He saw that this thing was gaining some momentum,’’ Mr. Thune said, “and I think he wanted to give it an opportunity to breathe a little bit, and see if they didn’t have a way of getting to 50.’’