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| Pound rallies on £50bn Brexit bill hopes; US growth revised up – as it happened | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| A mixed day for Europe, but with little real movement on most of the major markets. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved higher after positive remarks on the economy from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, but technology stocks have come under pressure. Jonathan Mackay, investment strategist at Schroders, told Reuters: | |
| What we’re seeing is a combination of defence positioning, with people taking some profit out of the high-growth areas, technology specifically, and rotating into sectors that should hold up better if we get any negative news on the tax bill or debt ceiling. | |
| Meanwhile bitcoin is currently up nearly 9% at $10,741 although off the day’s highs of 11,395. | |
| In Europe the final scores showed: | |
| The FTSE 100 finished down 67.09 points or 0.9% at 7393.56 | |
| Germany’s Dax edged up 0.02% to 13,061.87 | |
| France’s Cac closed 0.14% higher at 5398.05 | |
| Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.15% to 22,325.94 | |
| Spain’s Ibex ended 1.22% better at 10,267.7 | |
| In Greece, the Athens market added 1.67% to 738.31 | |
| On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 67 points or 0.28%. | |
| On that note, it’s time to close for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow. | |
| But there are some less positive developments in Greece, too. Helena Smith writes: | But there are some less positive developments in Greece, too. Helena Smith writes: |
| In Greece’s civil court, police have fired rounds of tear gas and been engaged in hand to hand battle with protestors opposing first electronic auctions demanded by creditors in bid to finally deal with Greece’s mountain of bad bank loans. | In Greece’s civil court, police have fired rounds of tear gas and been engaged in hand to hand battle with protestors opposing first electronic auctions demanded by creditors in bid to finally deal with Greece’s mountain of bad bank loans. |
| Over in Greece, some positive developments. The country has announced that it has successfully completely a voluntary bond swap worth €30bn, writes Helena Smith: | Over in Greece, some positive developments. The country has announced that it has successfully completely a voluntary bond swap worth €30bn, writes Helena Smith: |
| Likening the bond swap to the country achieving a second foray into the bond market - barely four months after it dipped its toe back into the financial market in July - the government spokesman Dimitris Tzannakopoulos said the bond swap take-up had reached 86.1 %. | Likening the bond swap to the country achieving a second foray into the bond market - barely four months after it dipped its toe back into the financial market in July - the government spokesman Dimitris Tzannakopoulos said the bond swap take-up had reached 86.1 %. |
| “It is a huge development ... and of huge significance for the country,” he told reporters this afternoon. “In reality it amounts to the second successful market foray afterJuly which is aimed at reprofiling [the country’s] debt so that it will be made more easily negotiable on international markets.” | “It is a huge development ... and of huge significance for the country,” he told reporters this afternoon. “In reality it amounts to the second successful market foray afterJuly which is aimed at reprofiling [the country’s] debt so that it will be made more easily negotiable on international markets.” |
| Greece, meanwhile, has resumed bailout negotiations with auditors representing bailout creditors holding a first full day of talks in Athens. At stake is the third - and last - compliance review before Athens exits its third bailout programme in August next year. | Greece, meanwhile, has resumed bailout negotiations with auditors representing bailout creditors holding a first full day of talks in Athens. At stake is the third - and last - compliance review before Athens exits its third bailout programme in August next year. |
| More on the drop in technology stocks. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: | More on the drop in technology stocks. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: |
| Hopes of tax reform continue to drive US markets higher, although the gains are concentrated in those firms which are expected to be significant beneficiaries. Tech is not in that exalted bracket, and as a result is taking heavy losses. | Hopes of tax reform continue to drive US markets higher, although the gains are concentrated in those firms which are expected to be significant beneficiaries. Tech is not in that exalted bracket, and as a result is taking heavy losses. |
| The caution is being amplified by comments from the German defence minister, who is arguing for tighter regulation for big tech firms. However, with Wall Street clocking up record highs, markets look vulnerable to some short-term reversals. Short-term reversals are exactly what we got last night on the North Korea news, and the rebound was equally rapid. No doubt there will be plenty of investors willing to buy this micro-dip in the FANG [tech] stocks, especially if they need to spruce up their performance ahead of year-end. | The caution is being amplified by comments from the German defence minister, who is arguing for tighter regulation for big tech firms. However, with Wall Street clocking up record highs, markets look vulnerable to some short-term reversals. Short-term reversals are exactly what we got last night on the North Korea news, and the rebound was equally rapid. No doubt there will be plenty of investors willing to buy this micro-dip in the FANG [tech] stocks, especially if they need to spruce up their performance ahead of year-end. |
| One exception in the US markets is the Nasdaq Composite, the technology heavy index which is now down almost 1%. | One exception in the US markets is the Nasdaq Composite, the technology heavy index which is now down almost 1%. |
| Part of the reason for the rise in US markets is a testimony from outgoing US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen to Congress. She made positive noises about the US economy, saying “the economic expansion is increasingly broad based across sectors as well as across much of the global economy.” | Part of the reason for the rise in US markets is a testimony from outgoing US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen to Congress. She made positive noises about the US economy, saying “the economic expansion is increasingly broad based across sectors as well as across much of the global economy.” |
| This makes a December rate rise even more likely, which has helped banking shares, and more increases could follow. Yellen said, “We continue to expect that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate.” | This makes a December rate rise even more likely, which has helped banking shares, and more increases could follow. Yellen said, “We continue to expect that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate.” |
| Wall Street is continuing its surge higher. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said: | Wall Street is continuing its surge higher. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said: |
| After a relatively sluggish few weeks the Dow has burst into life in the last couple of sessions. Yesterday it added a whopping 250 points, while today it’s up another 80 points – who knows, by this evening it could even reach 24000. The thrust of this growth stems from Trump’s progress in pushing through his – increasingly unpopular – tax reforms, with the Republicans clearing the Senate Budget Committee obstacle on Tuesday. Wednesday’s cherry on top was the news that the US Q3 GDP reading had been revised higher, from 3.0% to 3.3% at the annualised rate. | After a relatively sluggish few weeks the Dow has burst into life in the last couple of sessions. Yesterday it added a whopping 250 points, while today it’s up another 80 points – who knows, by this evening it could even reach 24000. The thrust of this growth stems from Trump’s progress in pushing through his – increasingly unpopular – tax reforms, with the Republicans clearing the Senate Budget Committee obstacle on Tuesday. Wednesday’s cherry on top was the news that the US Q3 GDP reading had been revised higher, from 3.0% to 3.3% at the annualised rate. |
| What goes up... Bitcoin is now at $10,479, down from its peak today of $11,395 but still up from the $9,868 it opened at. | What goes up... Bitcoin is now at $10,479, down from its peak today of $11,395 but still up from the $9,868 it opened at. |
| Back in the UK, the national minimum wage received by the lowest-paid workers is in the spotlight. | Back in the UK, the national minimum wage received by the lowest-paid workers is in the spotlight. |
| The Low Pay Commission, which recommends the minimum wage rates, said in its annual report published this morning that the new rates for 18-20 and 21-24 year olds follow the biggest rise for both age groups in a decade. | The Low Pay Commission, which recommends the minimum wage rates, said in its annual report published this morning that the new rates for 18-20 and 21-24 year olds follow the biggest rise for both age groups in a decade. |
| We already know the rates, which were published last week as part of the budget, but analysis in the report that shows increases from 1 April 2018 of 4.7% and 5.4% respectively “will benefit between 260,000 and 360,000 young workers directly” after the largest up-rating since 2007. | We already know the rates, which were published last week as part of the budget, but analysis in the report that shows increases from 1 April 2018 of 4.7% and 5.4% respectively “will benefit between 260,000 and 360,000 young workers directly” after the largest up-rating since 2007. |
| A lower percentage rise has been applied to the National Living Wage (NLW), which covers those aged 25 years old and beyond, of 4.4 per cent. Forecasts for average earnings growth next year fall between 2.5% and 3% the commission said. | A lower percentage rise has been applied to the National Living Wage (NLW), which covers those aged 25 years old and beyond, of 4.4 per cent. Forecasts for average earnings growth next year fall between 2.5% and 3% the commission said. |
| The weakest rise is being handed to 16 and 17 year olds, who must survive on £4.20, up 3.7% on this year. | The weakest rise is being handed to 16 and 17 year olds, who must survive on £4.20, up 3.7% on this year. |
| The commission said: | The commission said: |
| “The new rates will boost the earnings of between 260,000 and 360,000 young workers directly, and many more young workers will benefit. | “The new rates will boost the earnings of between 260,000 and 360,000 young workers directly, and many more young workers will benefit. |
| “This is for two reasons: firstly, these increases lead to ‘spillover’ effects further up the pay distribution; secondly, even though they are not entitled to it, some young workers benefit from increases in the NLW. We estimate that up to 45% of 18-24 year old workers – or 1.3 million young people – could receive a higher pay increase than they would have done in the absence of the NLW.” | “This is for two reasons: firstly, these increases lead to ‘spillover’ effects further up the pay distribution; secondly, even though they are not entitled to it, some young workers benefit from increases in the NLW. We estimate that up to 45% of 18-24 year old workers – or 1.3 million young people – could receive a higher pay increase than they would have done in the absence of the NLW.” |
| Boom! The US stock markets has hit fresh record highs at the start of trading. | Boom! The US stock markets has hit fresh record highs at the start of trading. |
| The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average both climbed to new levels, following the upgrade in US growth in the last quarter. | The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average both climbed to new levels, following the upgrade in US growth in the last quarter. |
| Jacob Deppe, Head of Trading at online trading platform, Infinox, sums up the mood: | Jacob Deppe, Head of Trading at online trading platform, Infinox, sums up the mood: |
| “Today’s second estimate of US GDP shows the world’s largest economy is clearly firing on all cylinders.” | “Today’s second estimate of US GDP shows the world’s largest economy is clearly firing on all cylinders.” |
| If Donald Trump takes his fingers off the retweet button, he’ll notice that the US economy appears to be doing pretty well on his watch. | If Donald Trump takes his fingers off the retweet button, he’ll notice that the US economy appears to be doing pretty well on his watch. |
| Here’s Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics on the new growth figures: | Here’s Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics on the new growth figures: |
| Third-quarter GDP growth was revised up modestly to 3.3% annualised, from 3.0%, thanks to a stronger positive contribution from business investment and a much smaller drag from State and local government expenditure. The growth rate of final sales to domestic purchasers was revised up as well to 2.5%, from 2.3%. | Third-quarter GDP growth was revised up modestly to 3.3% annualised, from 3.0%, thanks to a stronger positive contribution from business investment and a much smaller drag from State and local government expenditure. The growth rate of final sales to domestic purchasers was revised up as well to 2.5%, from 2.3%. |
| Business investment growth is now estimated to have been 4.7% annualised, with equipment investment up by 10.4%. With borrowing costs still relatively low, confidence strong and capex intentions surveys at elevated levels, we expect another decent gain in the fourth quarter. | Business investment growth is now estimated to have been 4.7% annualised, with equipment investment up by 10.4%. With borrowing costs still relatively low, confidence strong and capex intentions surveys at elevated levels, we expect another decent gain in the fourth quarter. |
| Bitcoin just smashed through $11,000, defying the doubters with their taunts about tulip bulbs.... | Bitcoin just smashed through $11,000, defying the doubters with their taunts about tulip bulbs.... |
| wow - Bitcoin now through $11,000 | wow - Bitcoin now through $11,000 |
| Bitcoin is almost $3,000 up on the week already and we're only halfway through. | Bitcoin is almost $3,000 up on the week already and we're only halfway through. |
| Despite its summer surge, the US hasn’t grown quite as fast as the eurozone over the last year. | Despite its summer surge, the US hasn’t grown quite as fast as the eurozone over the last year. |
| It’s comfortably outpacing Britain, though.... | It’s comfortably outpacing Britain, though.... |
| US economic growth in Q3 revised up a touch. Running at 2.3%y/y compared to 2.5%y/y in the Euro Area and 1.5%y/y in the UK. pic.twitter.com/BjvlwLUCoq | US economic growth in Q3 revised up a touch. Running at 2.3%y/y compared to 2.5%y/y in the Euro Area and 1.5%y/y in the UK. pic.twitter.com/BjvlwLUCoq |
| Economists are cheering the news that America’s economy expanded by 3.3% (annualised) in the last three months. | Economists are cheering the news that America’s economy expanded by 3.3% (annualised) in the last three months. |
| This upward revision suggests the US is in decent shape. | This upward revision suggests the US is in decent shape. |
| Here’s some early reaction: | Here’s some early reaction: |
| US Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 3.3% q/q (saar) - the strongest growth in 3 years. No sign of growth tapering off any time soon pic.twitter.com/Op4Pmrm7Sy | US Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 3.3% q/q (saar) - the strongest growth in 3 years. No sign of growth tapering off any time soon pic.twitter.com/Op4Pmrm7Sy |
| Just in: The US economy expanded 3.3% in Q3 (the hurricane quarter), up from 3.1% in Q2. Very strong growth that's a good sign for Trump as biz investment is picking up.https://t.co/00d9nD9E8W #economy | Just in: The US economy expanded 3.3% in Q3 (the hurricane quarter), up from 3.1% in Q2. Very strong growth that's a good sign for Trump as biz investment is picking up.https://t.co/00d9nD9E8W #economy |
| GDP revised up to 3.3% for Q3. It does make you wonder if we really do need tax reform. Economy has had two straight quarters of solid growth. Consumers spending. Market at all-time highs. Still maintain this is not all because of Trump but he can take a deserved victory lap. | GDP revised up to 3.3% for Q3. It does make you wonder if we really do need tax reform. Economy has had two straight quarters of solid growth. Consumers spending. Market at all-time highs. Still maintain this is not all because of Trump but he can take a deserved victory lap. |
| BREAKING: America’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter of 2017. | BREAKING: America’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter of 2017. |
| Fresh figures from the Commerce Department shows that US GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 3.3% in July-September, up from a first estimate of 3.0%. | Fresh figures from the Commerce Department shows that US GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 3.3% in July-September, up from a first estimate of 3.0%. |
| That’s equal to a quarterly growth rate of over 0.8% -- twice as fast as Britain’s 0.4% in Q3. | That’s equal to a quarterly growth rate of over 0.8% -- twice as fast as Britain’s 0.4% in Q3. |
| The new data shows that corporate profits boosted growth, jumping by 4.3% quarter-on-quarter. | The new data shows that corporate profits boosted growth, jumping by 4.3% quarter-on-quarter. |
| Net trade also boosted growth, with exports up by 2.2% but imports down by 1.1%. | Net trade also boosted growth, with exports up by 2.2% but imports down by 1.1%. |
| US GDP Revised Slightly Higher To 3.3% On An Annualized Basis In Q3 https://t.co/ZBUG1nXMr6 pic.twitter.com/TwCosgZlFv | US GDP Revised Slightly Higher To 3.3% On An Annualized Basis In Q3 https://t.co/ZBUG1nXMr6 pic.twitter.com/TwCosgZlFv |
| Reaction to follow.... | Reaction to follow.... |
| German bank Berenberg has raised their forecasts for UK growth over the next couple of years, on optimism that a hard Brexit can be avoided. | German bank Berenberg has raised their forecasts for UK growth over the next couple of years, on optimism that a hard Brexit can be avoided. |
| They say: | They say: |
| We raise our calls for real GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 to 1.8% and 1.9% from 1.6% and 1.7% respectively, following modest increases to our growth projections for household consumption and business investment. | We raise our calls for real GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 to 1.8% and 1.9% from 1.6% and 1.7% respectively, following modest increases to our growth projections for household consumption and business investment. |
| Our forecasts exceed Bloomberg consensus (29 November 2017) of 1.4% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. We see risks to the growth outlook as roughly balanced. | Our forecasts exceed Bloomberg consensus (29 November 2017) of 1.4% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. We see risks to the growth outlook as roughly balanced. |