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| Pound hits two-month high after £50bn Brexit bill reports – business live | Pound hits two-month high after £50bn Brexit bill reports – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| #Eurozone economic sentiment indicator reached its highest level since October 2000❗️Survey points to solid and faster GDP growth in Q4, in line with PMIs. /via @nghrbi 🇪🇺 💶 pic.twitter.com/2eAk1whGdG | |
| Despite Brexit uncertainty, individuals and businesses in Europe are increasingly optimistic. | |
| New data from the European Commission shows that eurozone consumer and economic confidence jumped again in November, to their highest level in 17 years. | |
| #European Commission report further rise in #Eurozone #business and #consumer confidence in Nov to highest level since Oct 2000. Confidence up in all business sectors except #retail. #Consumer confidence highest since January 2001 | |
| Newsflash: UK households reined in their borrowing last month. | Newsflash: UK households reined in their borrowing last month. |
| Unsecured consumer credit (such as borrowing on credit cards) grew by 9.6% per year in October, down from 9.8% in September. | Unsecured consumer credit (such as borrowing on credit cards) grew by 9.6% per year in October, down from 9.8% in September. |
| That’s the smallest rise since April 2016, and follows concerns that people were being driven into debt by rising inflation and falling real wages. | That’s the smallest rise since April 2016, and follows concerns that people were being driven into debt by rising inflation and falling real wages. |
| New Bank of England figures also show a fall in the number of mortgages approved by lenders, down to 64,575 in October from over 66,000 in September. | New Bank of England figures also show a fall in the number of mortgages approved by lenders, down to 64,575 in October from over 66,000 in September. |
| Transport secretary Chris Grayling has defended the government against criticism that it might stump up £50bn to leave the EU. | Transport secretary Chris Grayling has defended the government against criticism that it might stump up £50bn to leave the EU. |
| He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the UK has financial obligations to settle, adding: | He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the UK has financial obligations to settle, adding: |
| “I don’t think people in this country would expect us to just walk away from things we’ve already said we’d pay for.” | “I don’t think people in this country would expect us to just walk away from things we’ve already said we’d pay for.” |
| Bonus marks to anyone who spotted that on the side of a bus last year. | Bonus marks to anyone who spotted that on the side of a bus last year. |
| Anyway, Andrew Sparrow’s Politics Live blog has all the action from Westminster today: | Anyway, Andrew Sparrow’s Politics Live blog has all the action from Westminster today: |
| Grayling defends paying massively increased Brexit divorce bill, saying UK shouldn't 'just walk away' - Politics live https://t.co/uL7xSYssND | Grayling defends paying massively increased Brexit divorce bill, saying UK shouldn't 'just walk away' - Politics live https://t.co/uL7xSYssND |
| The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has sounded a cautious note about the £50bn figure. | The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has sounded a cautious note about the £50bn figure. |
| Collared by reporters in Berlin this morning, Barnier suggested that a deal wasn’t agreed yet. | Collared by reporters in Berlin this morning, Barnier suggested that a deal wasn’t agreed yet. |
| He said: | He said: |
| “We are still working. ....I am working for an agreement.” | “We are still working. ....I am working for an agreement.” |
| Barnier says Brexit bill reports are 'claims or rumours in the press' and 'we are continuing to work' on the subject, @AFP reporting from Berlin | Barnier says Brexit bill reports are 'claims or rumours in the press' and 'we are continuing to work' on the subject, @AFP reporting from Berlin |
| The pound has rallied against “all of its 16 major” rival currencies this morning, reports Bloomberg. | The pound has rallied against “all of its 16 major” rival currencies this morning, reports Bloomberg. |
| Pound advances to two-month high after Brexit bill breakthrough https://t.co/uN6Jyg0bxz via @johnainger pic.twitter.com/6T2uMCByi0 | Pound advances to two-month high after Brexit bill breakthrough https://t.co/uN6Jyg0bxz via @johnainger pic.twitter.com/6T2uMCByi0 |
| Even if a £50bn bill is agreed, Britain faces several hurdles to jump before it can avoid a disorderly Brexit. | Even if a £50bn bill is agreed, Britain faces several hurdles to jump before it can avoid a disorderly Brexit. |
| As well as the Irish question, Brussels also wants commitments on EU citizen rights beyond 2019. Plus, we don’t know that parliament will approve a hefty divorce bill. | As well as the Irish question, Brussels also wants commitments on EU citizen rights beyond 2019. Plus, we don’t know that parliament will approve a hefty divorce bill. |
| Neil Wilson of City firm ETX Capital says: | Neil Wilson of City firm ETX Capital says: |
| First, can Theresa May sell this to voters and to her party. She seems to have some shaky consensus backing for a higher offer but this is contingent on getting a good trade deal – the EU will not have its hands tied in this way. Therefore we must be wary that the political consensus to pay a bigger bill could unravel; and paying a big bill does not by definition lead to a good trade deal. Capitulating to the EU in this regard carries its own risks for Theresa May, but the risk of a no-deal exit was ultimately too high. | First, can Theresa May sell this to voters and to her party. She seems to have some shaky consensus backing for a higher offer but this is contingent on getting a good trade deal – the EU will not have its hands tied in this way. Therefore we must be wary that the political consensus to pay a bigger bill could unravel; and paying a big bill does not by definition lead to a good trade deal. Capitulating to the EU in this regard carries its own risks for Theresa May, but the risk of a no-deal exit was ultimately too high. |
| Second, the Irish border is still a major stumbling block and it is uncertain whether sufficient progress has been made on this front. This is an even more sensitive topic than the divorce bill and is not as easy to solve with a bigger cheque. | Second, the Irish border is still a major stumbling block and it is uncertain whether sufficient progress has been made on this front. This is an even more sensitive topic than the divorce bill and is not as easy to solve with a bigger cheque. |
| The third key barrier for the EU is citizens’ rights and again it is unclear if there is sufficient progress in this regard. | The third key barrier for the EU is citizens’ rights and again it is unclear if there is sufficient progress in this regard. |
| Sterling has jumped by 1.4% against a basket of currencies, its biggest rise since April, according to Reuters data. | Sterling has jumped by 1.4% against a basket of currencies, its biggest rise since April, according to Reuters data. |
| Christmas has come early for Brussels, says Kallum Pickering of Berenberg bank wryly. | Christmas has come early for Brussels, says Kallum Pickering of Berenberg bank wryly. |
| He expects an official agreement on the Brexit bill next month, following the news that the UK has caved in to demands for a £50bn payment. | He expects an official agreement on the Brexit bill next month, following the news that the UK has caved in to demands for a £50bn payment. |
| We expect UK PM Theresa May to present a formal offer on the Brexit bill, EU citizens rights, and the Irish border question at the upcoming 4 December dinner between May and EU Commission president Juncker. We expect the offer to meet the EU’s requirement for ‘sufficient progress’ on the Brexit divorce. | We expect UK PM Theresa May to present a formal offer on the Brexit bill, EU citizens rights, and the Irish border question at the upcoming 4 December dinner between May and EU Commission president Juncker. We expect the offer to meet the EU’s requirement for ‘sufficient progress’ on the Brexit divorce. |
| If such progress is made, expect the UK and the EU to move negotiations on to potential transitional arrangements and post-Brexit trade at the 14-15 December EU Summit. | If such progress is made, expect the UK and the EU to move negotiations on to potential transitional arrangements and post-Brexit trade at the 14-15 December EU Summit. |
| Guardian Business has launched a daily email. | Guardian Business has launched a daily email. |
| Besides the key news headlines that you’d expect, there’s an at-a-glance agenda of the day’s main events, insightful opinion pieces and a quality feature to sink your teeth into each day. | Besides the key news headlines that you’d expect, there’s an at-a-glance agenda of the day’s main events, insightful opinion pieces and a quality feature to sink your teeth into each day. |
| For your morning shot of financial news, sign up here: | For your morning shot of financial news, sign up here: |
| Britain’s exit bill is only one part of the Brexit puzzle, of course. | Britain’s exit bill is only one part of the Brexit puzzle, of course. |
| We still don’t have any idea how the Irish border question will be resolved; Dublin could block negotiations on trade unless its fears over a hard border are assuaged. | We still don’t have any idea how the Irish border question will be resolved; Dublin could block negotiations on trade unless its fears over a hard border are assuaged. |
| As Naeem Aslam of Think Markets puts it: | As Naeem Aslam of Think Markets puts it: |
| Picking up the Brexit bill has been the very thorny issue since day one and given that now the government has agreed to a respectable amount, the talks between the UK and the EU (which are set to resume next month) should be smoother. If the EU accepts the bill, then we will be moving to the next hurdle which is securing the EU rights [of citizens living in the UK. | Picking up the Brexit bill has been the very thorny issue since day one and given that now the government has agreed to a respectable amount, the talks between the UK and the EU (which are set to resume next month) should be smoother. If the EU accepts the bill, then we will be moving to the next hurdle which is securing the EU rights [of citizens living in the UK. |
| It is important to keep in mind that we are no way close to be out of the woods when it comes to the smooth negotiation process because the Northern Ireland issue is still the thorny matter. | It is important to keep in mind that we are no way close to be out of the woods when it comes to the smooth negotiation process because the Northern Ireland issue is still the thorny matter. |
| British Pound keeps rising as U.K. and EU agree to #Brexit divorce bill but Irish hurdle remains. https://t.co/sWa2VGOJGE pic.twitter.com/0sMgMAnwn4 | British Pound keeps rising as U.K. and EU agree to #Brexit divorce bill but Irish hurdle remains. https://t.co/sWa2VGOJGE pic.twitter.com/0sMgMAnwn4 |
| The pound is continuing to climb against the US dollar as investors bet that the Brexit fog is clearing. | The pound is continuing to climb against the US dollar as investors bet that the Brexit fog is clearing. |
| As Stephen Gallo at the Bank of Montreal put it (via the FT): | As Stephen Gallo at the Bank of Montreal put it (via the FT): |
| It’s a buy! The risk of snap election is down, the risk of a ‘hard Brexit’ is down, the path to a transition deal is clearing. | It’s a buy! The risk of snap election is down, the risk of a ‘hard Brexit’ is down, the path to a transition deal is clearing. |
| ‘It’s a buy!’: Hopes for Brexit payment breakthrough lift sterling https://t.co/YHQgvIvdw3 | ‘It’s a buy!’: Hopes for Brexit payment breakthrough lift sterling https://t.co/YHQgvIvdw3 |
| The surge in the pound has hit shares in the City. | The surge in the pound has hit shares in the City. |
| The FTSE 100 is down 31 points at 7429; a stronger sterling reduces the value of money earned overseas by UK-based multinationals. | The FTSE 100 is down 31 points at 7429; a stronger sterling reduces the value of money earned overseas by UK-based multinationals. |
| The prospect that Britain and the EU might shake hands on a Brexit bill next month is exciting the City this morning. | The prospect that Britain and the EU might shake hands on a Brexit bill next month is exciting the City this morning. |
| £50bn is obviously a lot of money, even if split over many years. But traders think it could be worth it, if it opens the door to trade talks. | £50bn is obviously a lot of money, even if split over many years. But traders think it could be worth it, if it opens the door to trade talks. |
| Konstantinos Anthis of brokerage firm ADS Securities explains: | Konstantinos Anthis of brokerage firm ADS Securities explains: |
| Even though the agreement is not yet formal traders are clearly excited by the prospect of progress on this issue. | Even though the agreement is not yet formal traders are clearly excited by the prospect of progress on this issue. |
| Traders are looking for any positive news in this area as it opens the way for trade negotiations, and are prepared to buy sterling in response. | Traders are looking for any positive news in this area as it opens the way for trade negotiations, and are prepared to buy sterling in response. |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Sterling is on a roll this morning, amid signs that Britain and the European Union are on the brink of a Brexit breakthrough. | Sterling is on a roll this morning, amid signs that Britain and the European Union are on the brink of a Brexit breakthrough. |
| The pound has jumped to $1.3406, up almost three quarters of a cent, to its highest level since the end of September. | The pound has jumped to $1.3406, up almost three quarters of a cent, to its highest level since the end of September. |
| It is also pushing higher against the euro, up 0.3% at €1.13. | It is also pushing higher against the euro, up 0.3% at €1.13. |
| The rally was triggered by reports that London could pay a £50bn exit bill, in an attempt to nudge European politicians into starting negotiations about trade. | The rally was triggered by reports that London could pay a £50bn exit bill, in an attempt to nudge European politicians into starting negotiations about trade. |
| A deal would ease fears that Britain could crash out of the EU in March 2019 in a disorderly Brexit. | A deal would ease fears that Britain could crash out of the EU in March 2019 in a disorderly Brexit. |
| Wednesday's GUARDIAN: UK faces £50bn divorce bill after bowing to EU demands #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/9TG9QRAIAe | Wednesday's GUARDIAN: UK faces £50bn divorce bill after bowing to EU demands #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/9TG9QRAIAe |
| EU leaders will decide next month whether this is enough to move negotiations onto trade, so this could be a very significant moment. | EU leaders will decide next month whether this is enough to move negotiations onto trade, so this could be a very significant moment. |
| As my colleagues Daniel Boffey and Jennifer Rankin reported last night: | As my colleagues Daniel Boffey and Jennifer Rankin reported last night: |
| Non-stop behind-the-scenes negotiations have led to a broad agreement by the UK to a gross financial settlement of £89bn on leaving the bloc, although the British expect the final net bill to be half as much. | Non-stop behind-the-scenes negotiations have led to a broad agreement by the UK to a gross financial settlement of £89bn on leaving the bloc, although the British expect the final net bill to be half as much. |
| A senior EU official told the Guardian that the UK appeared ready to honour its share of the EU’s unpaid bills, loans, pension and other liabilities accrued over 44 years of membership. “We have heard the UK wants to come along with the money,” the official said. “We have understood it covers the liabilities and what we consider the real commitments. But we have to see the fine print.” | A senior EU official told the Guardian that the UK appeared ready to honour its share of the EU’s unpaid bills, loans, pension and other liabilities accrued over 44 years of membership. “We have heard the UK wants to come along with the money,” the official said. “We have understood it covers the liabilities and what we consider the real commitments. But we have to see the fine print.” |
| The bill could total £53bn to £58bn (€60bn to €65bn), although EU officials are not discussing numbers and the British government will fight hard to bring the total down. | The bill could total £53bn to £58bn (€60bn to €65bn), although EU officials are not discussing numbers and the British government will fight hard to bring the total down. |
| Here’s the full story: | Here’s the full story: |
| We’ll be tracking City reaction to the news, along with new data showing the state of the UK, US and eurozone economies. | We’ll be tracking City reaction to the news, along with new data showing the state of the UK, US and eurozone economies. |
| The agenda: | The agenda: |
| 9.30am GMT: UK consumer credit and mortgage approval figures for October | 9.30am GMT: UK consumer credit and mortgage approval figures for October |
| 10am GMT: Eurozone consumer and economic confidence stats for November | 10am GMT: Eurozone consumer and economic confidence stats for November |
| 1pm GMT: German inflation data for November | 1pm GMT: German inflation data for November |
| 1.30pm GMT: The second estimate of US GDP for the third quarter of 2017 | 1.30pm GMT: The second estimate of US GDP for the third quarter of 2017 |