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| Catalonia polls close after voters turn out in force – live updates | Catalonia polls close after voters turn out in force – live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| With the vote count underway for little over half an hour, the only thing that can be said with any certainty is that the outcome of this election is going to be very close indeed. | |
| Both the secessionists and the pro-independence parties could yet emerge with a parliamentary majority – and no one can say how coalition negotiations will go. | |
| In his pre-election assessment of the most likely potential coalition permutations, Sam Jones sketched out three main options: | |
| Another alliance between Puigdemont’s JuntsxCat, the ERC and the anti-capitalist CUP is possible but would be problematic. There are tensions between JuntsxCat and the ERC, and the CUP’s insistence on unilateral independence would be frowned on by Madrid which could again use the constitution to apply direct rule. | |
| A three-way leftist coalition of Catalunya en Comú-Podem (the Catalan version of the anti-austerity Podemos party), the ERC, and the socialist PSC. However, this would involve the ERC having to renounce its unilateral stance on independence and the PSC abandoning its support for direct rule from Madrid. | |
| Ciutadans could try to build a pro-unionist government with the PSC and the conservative People’s Party of Catalonia (PPC), but the centre-right party and the socialists have been trading insults and the latter would suffer nationally for teaming up with the People’s party, which governs Spain. | |
| Whatever happens, Sam predicted, “Comú-Podem looks set to play kingmaker in the looming rounds of horsetrading”. | |
| Another reminder to treat this forecast with extreme caution, says Guardian Madrid correspondent Sam Jones: | Another reminder to treat this forecast with extreme caution, says Guardian Madrid correspondent Sam Jones: |
| “I don’t think anyone here trusts polls/exit polls any more. Many were convinced Podemos would leapfrog the social democrat PSOE party to become the second party of Spain in June 2016 election – and it never happened ...” | “I don’t think anyone here trusts polls/exit polls any more. Many were convinced Podemos would leapfrog the social democrat PSOE party to become the second party of Spain in June 2016 election – and it never happened ...” |
| As polls closed at 8pm local time, the Barcelona-based La Vanguardia newspaper released a forecast based on 3,200 telephone interviews suggesting the unionist Ciutadans party could be the largest in the regional parliament – but that the three main pro-independence parties could just squeeze home with the narrowest of majority. Or, they could fall just short. | As polls closed at 8pm local time, the Barcelona-based La Vanguardia newspaper released a forecast based on 3,200 telephone interviews suggesting the unionist Ciutadans party could be the largest in the regional parliament – but that the three main pro-independence parties could just squeeze home with the narrowest of majority. Or, they could fall just short. |
| Treat with caution but here is today's tracking poll from @LaVanguardia. This is not an exit poll. It shows a likely majority for the pro-independence bloc but also Ciudadaons as the biggest individual party. #EleccionesCataluna pic.twitter.com/8RLHlta9Q0 | Treat with caution but here is today's tracking poll from @LaVanguardia. This is not an exit poll. It shows a likely majority for the pro-independence bloc but also Ciudadaons as the biggest individual party. #EleccionesCataluna pic.twitter.com/8RLHlta9Q0 |
| The forecast is not an exit poll so should be treated with caution, however. It suggests Ciutadans could win just over a quarter of the total vote, advancing from 25 seats in the current parliament to between 34 and37. | The forecast is not an exit poll so should be treated with caution, however. It suggests Ciutadans could win just over a quarter of the total vote, advancing from 25 seats in the current parliament to between 34 and37. |
| However the pro-independence ERC, JuntsxCat and CUP are on course for between 67 and 71 seats – with an absolute parliamentary majority secured if they manage 68. | However the pro-independence ERC, JuntsxCat and CUP are on course for between 67 and 71 seats – with an absolute parliamentary majority secured if they manage 68. |
| Catalan TV stations decided not to join forces to produce a more formal exit poll for this election partly because of the cost, and partly because the last time they did one – in 2015 – it turned out to be wildly inaccurate. | Catalan TV stations decided not to join forces to produce a more formal exit poll for this election partly because of the cost, and partly because the last time they did one – in 2015 – it turned out to be wildly inaccurate. |
| Miquel Iceta, leader of the Catalan Socialist party, cast his ballot this evening. | Miquel Iceta, leader of the Catalan Socialist party, cast his ballot this evening. |
| “The higher the turnout, greater the joy – for all democrats,” he said said later as he reached party HQ to await the count. | “The higher the turnout, greater the joy – for all democrats,” he said said later as he reached party HQ to await the count. |
| Asked if he was worried a close election result could make Catalonia ungovernable, he said he hoped not – his aim was to “translate the citizens’ will into a system of government that is as stable and progressive as possible”. | Asked if he was worried a close election result could make Catalonia ungovernable, he said he hoped not – his aim was to “translate the citizens’ will into a system of government that is as stable and progressive as possible”. |
| Miquel Iceta: "Cuanta más participación, más alegría para todos los demócratas" https://t.co/9qAg6ecMvQ #EleccionesCataluña pic.twitter.com/U21TmlDUie | Miquel Iceta: "Cuanta más participación, más alegría para todos los demócratas" https://t.co/9qAg6ecMvQ #EleccionesCataluña pic.twitter.com/U21TmlDUie |
| With less than half an hour to go before many polling stations close, there are still long queues outside some – even if, in this one in Barcelona, 70% had voted by 6pm. Many observers have suggested a high turnout should produce a stronger showing for pro-unionist parties. | With less than half an hour to go before many polling stations close, there are still long queues outside some – even if, in this one in Barcelona, 70% had voted by 6pm. Many observers have suggested a high turnout should produce a stronger showing for pro-unionist parties. |
| Largas colas en un colegio electoral del barrio de Sant Andreu. A las 18h había votado el 70% del censo, comenta Luis Martínez, uno de los tantos apoderados del PP que ha venido de Madrid. Aquí cerrarán las mesas a las 20:20, comenta. pic.twitter.com/tl7DC4hbvW | Largas colas en un colegio electoral del barrio de Sant Andreu. A las 18h había votado el 70% del censo, comenta Luis Martínez, uno de los tantos apoderados del PP que ha venido de Madrid. Aquí cerrarán las mesas a las 20:20, comenta. pic.twitter.com/tl7DC4hbvW |
| Confused about which parties are running, what they stand for and who might team up with whom? The Guardian’s Madrid correspondent Sam Jones produced this handy list as part of his guide to the election published earlier today: | Confused about which parties are running, what they stand for and who might team up with whom? The Guardian’s Madrid correspondent Sam Jones produced this handy list as part of his guide to the election published earlier today: |
| Junts per Catalunya (JuntsxCat, Together for Catalonia). The revamp of Catalonia for Yes, the deposed coalition government of ERC and Puigdemont’s Convergència i Unió. The new group insists Puigdemont is the only legitimate president and that the illegal 1 October referendum is the basis for an independent republic, but backs away from committing to a timescale for independence. | Junts per Catalunya (JuntsxCat, Together for Catalonia). The revamp of Catalonia for Yes, the deposed coalition government of ERC and Puigdemont’s Convergència i Unió. The new group insists Puigdemont is the only legitimate president and that the illegal 1 October referendum is the basis for an independent republic, but backs away from committing to a timescale for independence. |
| Esquerra Repúblicana Catalana (ERC, Catalan Republican Left). ERC is going it alone rather than in coalition with Puigdemont. Its leader, Oriol Junqueras, is in prison, which could give him a moral advantage over Puigdemont, who skipped the country. | Esquerra Repúblicana Catalana (ERC, Catalan Republican Left). ERC is going it alone rather than in coalition with Puigdemont. Its leader, Oriol Junqueras, is in prison, which could give him a moral advantage over Puigdemont, who skipped the country. |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC, Catalan Socialist party). The PSC upset many party members by backing Madrid over direct rule but in Miquel Iceta has a leader with strong appeal to anti-independence voters. Open to coalition but not with secessionists. | Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC, Catalan Socialist party). The PSC upset many party members by backing Madrid over direct rule but in Miquel Iceta has a leader with strong appeal to anti-independence voters. Open to coalition but not with secessionists. |
| Partit Popular de Catalunya (PPC, Catalan People’s party). Catalan wing of Spain’s ruling, conservative People’s party. Vows to dismantle pro-independence institutions established over recent years and reform Catalan public TV and radio. Could play vital role in any anti-independence coalition. | Partit Popular de Catalunya (PPC, Catalan People’s party). Catalan wing of Spain’s ruling, conservative People’s party. Vows to dismantle pro-independence institutions established over recent years and reform Catalan public TV and radio. Could play vital role in any anti-independence coalition. |
| Ciutadans (Citizens party). Centre-right, anti-independence party on course for about 25% of vote under leader Inés Arrimadas. Vows to heal the wounds of divided Catalan society. Won’t form government with secessionists but could end up leading left-right coalition of PP, socialists and the leftwing Catalonia in Common. | Ciutadans (Citizens party). Centre-right, anti-independence party on course for about 25% of vote under leader Inés Arrimadas. Vows to heal the wounds of divided Catalan society. Won’t form government with secessionists but could end up leading left-right coalition of PP, socialists and the leftwing Catalonia in Common. |
| Catalunya en Comú (Catalonia in Common). Catalan version of the anti-austerity Podemos party. Struggling to shake off accusations of being soft on independence and establish clear identity as left alternative. May well end up as kingmaker. | Catalunya en Comú (Catalonia in Common). Catalan version of the anti-austerity Podemos party. Struggling to shake off accusations of being soft on independence and establish clear identity as left alternative. May well end up as kingmaker. |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP, Popular Unity Candidacy). The anti-capitalist CUP, whose 10 seats gave Together for Yes a majority, regards the election as illegitimate because it was called by the Spanish government but is standing nonetheless. Refuses to countenance any road other than a unilateral declaration of independence. Current polls suggest its vote is falling. | Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP, Popular Unity Candidacy). The anti-capitalist CUP, whose 10 seats gave Together for Yes a majority, regards the election as illegitimate because it was called by the Spanish government but is standing nonetheless. Refuses to countenance any road other than a unilateral declaration of independence. Current polls suggest its vote is falling. |
| Guardian contributing editor and former Madrid correspondent Giles Tremlett wonders whether the high turnout could favour the parties that favour Catalonia staying a part of Spain: | Guardian contributing editor and former Madrid correspondent Giles Tremlett wonders whether the high turnout could favour the parties that favour Catalonia staying a part of Spain: |
| #catalonia big surge in voter turnout in urban zones like Barcelona, Baix Llobregat, Tarragona etc... usually more likely to be unionist areas. Could be so-called "silent majority" surge, but this election is just too strange to call @swajones @jonhenley | #catalonia big surge in voter turnout in urban zones like Barcelona, Baix Llobregat, Tarragona etc... usually more likely to be unionist areas. Could be so-called "silent majority" surge, but this election is just too strange to call @swajones @jonhenley |
| Carles Puigdemont, the ousted Catalan president, told reporters in Brussels – where he is evading a Spanish arrest warrant – that the election was “extraordinarily important” for the region because “from the results will come the formula to recover democracy”. | Carles Puigdemont, the ousted Catalan president, told reporters in Brussels – where he is evading a Spanish arrest warrant – that the election was “extraordinarily important” for the region because “from the results will come the formula to recover democracy”. |
| Puigdemont fled to Belgium after the Madrid government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy sacked him for pushing ahead with a unilateral independence drive. Several other members of his former cabinet were jailed on charges of sedition and rebellion. | Puigdemont fled to Belgium after the Madrid government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy sacked him for pushing ahead with a unilateral independence drive. Several other members of his former cabinet were jailed on charges of sedition and rebellion. |
| “It’s not normal, an election that takes place with candidates in prison and candidates in exile,” Puigdemont said. He thanked an anonymous 18 year-old woman who cast a ballot paper on his behalf. | “It’s not normal, an election that takes place with candidates in prison and candidates in exile,” Puigdemont said. He thanked an anonymous 18 year-old woman who cast a ballot paper on his behalf. |
| The pro-Spanish unity candidate leading some polls ahead of the election has promised to put an end to the divisions in Catalan society that she said had been opened up by the unilateral actions of the separatists. | The pro-Spanish unity candidate leading some polls ahead of the election has promised to put an end to the divisions in Catalan society that she said had been opened up by the unilateral actions of the separatists. |
| Ines Arrimadas, who heads the Citizens party’s slate, told reporters after casting her vote in Barcelona this afternoon: “We are going to fight very hard for Catalonia to return to normalcy.” | Ines Arrimadas, who heads the Citizens party’s slate, told reporters after casting her vote in Barcelona this afternoon: “We are going to fight very hard for Catalonia to return to normalcy.” |
| The candidate of the pro-union socialist PSC party, Miquel Iceta, also said a “change of direction” in Catalan politics was needed “to make progress possible”. | The candidate of the pro-union socialist PSC party, Miquel Iceta, also said a “change of direction” in Catalan politics was needed “to make progress possible”. |
| Oriol Junquieras, leader of the pro-independence ERC party, has tweeted a letter written on 8 December from his cell in Estremera prison, Madrid. | Oriol Junquieras, leader of the pro-independence ERC party, has tweeted a letter written on 8 December from his cell in Estremera prison, Madrid. |
| Carta de Junqueras:"Estimats amics! La presó no ens afebleix. Ans al contrari. Ens fa més forts..." pic.twitter.com/5iscpdfNap | Carta de Junqueras:"Estimats amics! La presó no ens afebleix. Ans al contrari. Ens fa més forts..." pic.twitter.com/5iscpdfNap |
| “Prison does not weaken us,” the deposed vice president of the Catalan regional government wrote. “On the contrary. It makes us stronger.” He said he had not wanted to avoid jail because it was “the best testimony of our absolute commitment to humanism and nonviolence”. | “Prison does not weaken us,” the deposed vice president of the Catalan regional government wrote. “On the contrary. It makes us stronger.” He said he had not wanted to avoid jail because it was “the best testimony of our absolute commitment to humanism and nonviolence”. |
| Voter turnout was up by more than 5 percentage points two hours before polling stations closed, Catalan authorities have said. | Voter turnout was up by more than 5 percentage points two hours before polling stations closed, Catalan authorities have said. |
| The regional election board said 68.3% of Catalan voters had cast their ballots by 6pm, agains 63.12% in the previous 2015 election. | The regional election board said 68.3% of Catalan voters had cast their ballots by 6pm, agains 63.12% in the previous 2015 election. |
| Turnout by 6 p.m five points up from 2015, which established the previous record in a Catalan regional election. pic.twitter.com/uUn4codBKw | Turnout by 6 p.m five points up from 2015, which established the previous record in a Catalan regional election. pic.twitter.com/uUn4codBKw |
| Recent polls had predicted a record turnout as feelings continue to run high both among pro-independence voters angry at Madrid’s response to the October referendum and unionists fed up with the ensuing social unrest and economic instability that have ensued. | Recent polls had predicted a record turnout as feelings continue to run high both among pro-independence voters angry at Madrid’s response to the October referendum and unionists fed up with the ensuing social unrest and economic instability that have ensued. |
| Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Catalonia’s snap regional election, triggered in late October by the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, as Madrid took control of the region in the wake of its illegal independence referendum and unilateral declaration of independence. | Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Catalonia’s snap regional election, triggered in late October by the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, as Madrid took control of the region in the wake of its illegal independence referendum and unilateral declaration of independence. |
| The bitterly contested vote is finely poised, with the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left party (ERC) neck-and-neck in the polls with the unionist, centre-right Ciutadans (Citizens). Its outcome will determine the next phase of the region’s long-running campaign for independence from Spain. | The bitterly contested vote is finely poised, with the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left party (ERC) neck-and-neck in the polls with the unionist, centre-right Ciutadans (Citizens). Its outcome will determine the next phase of the region’s long-running campaign for independence from Spain. |
| Neither party is expected to win a majority in the region’s 135-member chamber and a number of different coalition permutations look possible, making a hung parliament and protracted negotiations to form a new government all but inevitable – with article 155 of the Spanish constitution, which allows Madrid to maintain direct rule, in place until it is formed. | Neither party is expected to win a majority in the region’s 135-member chamber and a number of different coalition permutations look possible, making a hung parliament and protracted negotiations to form a new government all but inevitable – with article 155 of the Spanish constitution, which allows Madrid to maintain direct rule, in place until it is formed. |
| Tensions remain high in Catalonia. The deposed regional president, Carles Puigdemont, has been campaigning from Belgium after fleeing charges of rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds, while his former number two, Oriol Junqueras, is in jail with two other prominent independence leaders. | Tensions remain high in Catalonia. The deposed regional president, Carles Puigdemont, has been campaigning from Belgium after fleeing charges of rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds, while his former number two, Oriol Junqueras, is in jail with two other prominent independence leaders. |
| With a record turnout expected, the outcome could hinge on the more than 20% of voters who are undecided. The Barcelona newspaper La Vanguardia will be publishing an exit poll soon after polls close at 8pm local time and confirmed results should be available fairly quickly, with around 80% of votes expected to be counted by 10.30pm. | With a record turnout expected, the outcome could hinge on the more than 20% of voters who are undecided. The Barcelona newspaper La Vanguardia will be publishing an exit poll soon after polls close at 8pm local time and confirmed results should be available fairly quickly, with around 80% of votes expected to be counted by 10.30pm. |