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| Catalonia polls close after voters turn out in force – live updates | Catalonia polls close after voters turn out in force – live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Worth noting, though, that as things stand the three pro-independence parties JuntsxCat, ERC and CUP may be heading for a clear – if slim – majority in parliament, but they do not have 50% of the popular vote. | |
| This will not be the absolute mandate they were hoping for. | |
| This graphic of where things are with 50% of votes counted courtesy of the Guardian’s Seàn Clarke: | |
| The consensus among observers, commentators and journalists appears to be building, and it’s not looking pretty for Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy in Madrid. Has his decision to call this snap Catalan election backfired? | |
| With over 50 pct of Catalan vote counted, pro-independence parties have absolute majority.This makes uncomfortable viewing for PM Rajoy. | |
| With more than 45% of votes now counted, the useful live calculator run by political scientist and commentator Ignacio Escolar looks like this: | |
| Consulta en directo nuestra calculadora de pactos. Ahora mismo, mayoría absoluta independentista en escaños https://t.co/KsCoqTPN8F pic.twitter.com/czMr0TRDzs | |
| As you can see, it too gives the pro-independence parties a narrow majority with or without the support of the local version of the anti-austerity Podemos party, Comú-Podem. The left-wing parties and the unionists fall short of the magic 68 seats required. | |
| Here is El Pais with the exact tally after 40%-plus of votes have been counted. The unionist Citizens are marginally ahead in vote share and could finish as the largest party, but the three pro-independence parties JuntsxCat, ERC and CUP seem, for the moment at least, on course for a narrow majority: | |
| Más del 40% de los votos escrutados. JunstXCatalunya y Ciudadanos vuelven a empatar en escaños, PP y la CUP pierden la mitad https://t.co/HviBVENMRx #EleccionesCataluna pic.twitter.com/rqv028w1Gp | |
| The count is progressing much faster now. Reuter’s chief Spain correspondent gives her verdict with around 40% of votes already tallied – it’s going to go down to the wire: | |
| Dead heat in Catalan election with just under 40 percent of vote counted. Everything to play for. | |
| With more than 20% of the vote now counted, Guardian writer Stephen Burgen is prepared to stick his neck out: | |
| This is looking like a catastrophe for Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy. As things stand, a secessionist coalition will have an absolute majority, his centre-right rival Ciutadans will have won the most seats and his own Popular party will have its worst ever result in Catalonia. | |
| However, we have had few results from Barcelona and other urban areas. That could change the picture radically – but not in Rajoy’s favour. This is not what Rajoy had in mind when he called these elections. | |
| As part of his pre-election coverage, the Guardian’s Sam Jones took a trip out to Arenys de Munt, an hour or so outside Barcelona and the town where, eight years ago, the early simmerings of regional discontent began to come to the boil: | |
| Residents of Arenys de Munt became the first Catalans to vote on a now-familiar question: “Do you agree that Catalonia should become an independent, democratic and social state of law, integrated in the European Union?” Town after town followed suit and the movement snowballed. | |
| Sam found the pro-independence council still deeply proud of that first symbolic 2009 poll, in which 96% of people voted to leave Spain, and mostly determined to stick to their guns. Àngel Vallcorba, a councillor for the pro-independence ERC party told him: | |
| We’re a small place but the referendum really put us on the map. We lit the fuse and a lot of other towns and cities started holding their own consultations. Arenys de Munt is seen a bit as the bressol, or cradle, of independence. | |
| And if their drive for independence needed any further encouragement, it came courtesy of the Spanish authorities’ reaction to the October referendum and the detention of the former Catalan vice-president andthe leaders of two grassroots pro-independence groups. | |
| Like most independentistas, the town’s mayor argues that the Spanish authorities left them with little choice but to act unilaterally. Joan Rabasseda said: | |
| I can’t understand how, in a democratic country, and after years and years of massive demonstrations – millions of people on the streets calling for a different relationship with the Spanish state – the answer has always been no. | |
| If you had a million people on the streets of any other EU country calling for something, I think the government would pay attention to what they were saying … There’s never been any effort to court people. | |
| Counting is underway, but is progressing slowly. Most observers warn against drawing any firm conclusions about the outcome until at least 80% of votes have been counted – a tally which looks a long way off at the moment: | Counting is underway, but is progressing slowly. Most observers warn against drawing any firm conclusions about the outcome until at least 80% of votes have been counted – a tally which looks a long way off at the moment: |
| 6.3% votes counted: pro-independence Together for Catalonia is leading (35 out of 135 seats), parties for a Catalan state would keep the majority in the chamber with 72 seats. Majority is at 68 #21D ➡️https://t.co/xh8hFJW9Mk. pic.twitter.com/OJMoHNNAVa | 6.3% votes counted: pro-independence Together for Catalonia is leading (35 out of 135 seats), parties for a Catalan state would keep the majority in the chamber with 72 seats. Majority is at 68 #21D ➡️https://t.co/xh8hFJW9Mk. pic.twitter.com/OJMoHNNAVa |
| In his analysis of what the vote might mean, Guardian contributing editor Giles Tremlett warned that the election was unlikely to heal the bitter divisions in Catalonia. The crisis could yet last for decades, he predicted: | In his analysis of what the vote might mean, Guardian contributing editor Giles Tremlett warned that the election was unlikely to heal the bitter divisions in Catalonia. The crisis could yet last for decades, he predicted: |
| These are extraordinary circumstances, with Catalonia split into two increasingly angry halves and polls showing that those who preach moderation or compromise are the least likely to succeed. | These are extraordinary circumstances, with Catalonia split into two increasingly angry halves and polls showing that those who preach moderation or compromise are the least likely to succeed. |
| One side is outraged that police batons were used during the 1 October vote, that some of its leaders are now in jail and that Rajoy later imposed direct rule. This, it says, is the final proof of Madrid’s iniquity. | One side is outraged that police batons were used during the 1 October vote, that some of its leaders are now in jail and that Rajoy later imposed direct rule. This, it says, is the final proof of Madrid’s iniquity. |
| The other is furious that the separatists used a slim parliamentary majority – backed by less than 50% of Catalan votes – to force a confrontation with Madrid before declaring a muddled form of independence that turned out to have no substance to it. That, they say, has sowed the seeds of division, fractured Catalan society and driven away both money and jobs. And yet both sides must continue living together. | The other is furious that the separatists used a slim parliamentary majority – backed by less than 50% of Catalan votes – to force a confrontation with Madrid before declaring a muddled form of independence that turned out to have no substance to it. That, they say, has sowed the seeds of division, fractured Catalan society and driven away both money and jobs. And yet both sides must continue living together. |
| A separatist victory would do little to clear things up, and may provoke splits in the independence movement’s own ranks. Hardcore separatists want to return to the path of civil disobedience, but the leadership appears to have realised that, with the EU having turned its back, that route is blocked. Just restoring the self-government that Catalonia usually enjoys and seeking an amnesty for its own leaders may absorb much of the movement’s energy. | A separatist victory would do little to clear things up, and may provoke splits in the independence movement’s own ranks. Hardcore separatists want to return to the path of civil disobedience, but the leadership appears to have realised that, with the EU having turned its back, that route is blocked. Just restoring the self-government that Catalonia usually enjoys and seeking an amnesty for its own leaders may absorb much of the movement’s energy. |
| Apart from that, there is little indication of how it would drive the independence campaign forwards. “Tell us what you plan to so with the road map that you left only half-completed,” said the disillusioned separatist writer Bernat Dedéu. | Apart from that, there is little indication of how it would drive the independence campaign forwards. “Tell us what you plan to so with the road map that you left only half-completed,” said the disillusioned separatist writer Bernat Dedéu. |
| The competing parties have chosen a range of locations in which to hold their post-election rallies, writes the Guardian’s Stephen Burgen in Barcelona – from hotels to a museum and even a bus station: | The competing parties have chosen a range of locations in which to hold their post-election rallies, writes the Guardian’s Stephen Burgen in Barcelona – from hotels to a museum and even a bus station: |
| Catalunya en Comú-Podem - the Catalan version of the leftwing Podemos party - is holding theirs on a university campus. A spokeswoman said the high turnout was encouraging but said they weren’t paying much attention to the exit polls and would wait for the real results. | Catalunya en Comú-Podem - the Catalan version of the leftwing Podemos party - is holding theirs on a university campus. A spokeswoman said the high turnout was encouraging but said they weren’t paying much attention to the exit polls and would wait for the real results. |
| But if the estimations are even half right, the result could turn out to be a disappointment for the party led by the likeable history professor Xavier Domènech with ambitions to be the kingmaker in a leftist coalition made up of the pro-independence ERC and the socialists of the PSC. | But if the estimations are even half right, the result could turn out to be a disappointment for the party led by the likeable history professor Xavier Domènech with ambitions to be the kingmaker in a leftist coalition made up of the pro-independence ERC and the socialists of the PSC. |
| With the vote count underway for little over half an hour, the only thing that can be said with any certainty is that the outcome of this election is going to be very close indeed. | With the vote count underway for little over half an hour, the only thing that can be said with any certainty is that the outcome of this election is going to be very close indeed. |
| Both the secessionists and the pro-independence parties could yet emerge with a parliamentary majority – and no one can say how coalition negotiations will go. | Both the secessionists and the pro-independence parties could yet emerge with a parliamentary majority – and no one can say how coalition negotiations will go. |
| In his pre-election assessment of the most likely potential coalition permutations, Sam Jones sketched out three main options: | In his pre-election assessment of the most likely potential coalition permutations, Sam Jones sketched out three main options: |
| Another alliance between Puigdemont’s JuntsxCat, the ERC and the anti-capitalist CUP is possible but would be problematic. There are tensions between JuntsxCat and the ERC, and the CUP’s insistence on unilateral independence would be frowned on by Madrid which could again use the constitution to apply direct rule. | Another alliance between Puigdemont’s JuntsxCat, the ERC and the anti-capitalist CUP is possible but would be problematic. There are tensions between JuntsxCat and the ERC, and the CUP’s insistence on unilateral independence would be frowned on by Madrid which could again use the constitution to apply direct rule. |
| A three-way leftist coalition of Catalunya en Comú-Podem (the Catalan version of the anti-austerity Podemos party), the ERC, and the socialist PSC. However, this would involve the ERC having to renounce its unilateral stance on independence and the PSC abandoning its support for direct rule from Madrid. | A three-way leftist coalition of Catalunya en Comú-Podem (the Catalan version of the anti-austerity Podemos party), the ERC, and the socialist PSC. However, this would involve the ERC having to renounce its unilateral stance on independence and the PSC abandoning its support for direct rule from Madrid. |
| Ciutadans could try to build a pro-unionist government with the PSC and the conservative People’s Party of Catalonia (PPC), but the centre-right party and the socialists have been trading insults and the latter would suffer nationally for teaming up with the People’s party, which governs Spain. | Ciutadans could try to build a pro-unionist government with the PSC and the conservative People’s Party of Catalonia (PPC), but the centre-right party and the socialists have been trading insults and the latter would suffer nationally for teaming up with the People’s party, which governs Spain. |
| Whatever happens, Sam predicted, “Comú-Podem looks set to play kingmaker in the looming rounds of horsetrading”. | Whatever happens, Sam predicted, “Comú-Podem looks set to play kingmaker in the looming rounds of horsetrading”. |
| Another reminder to treat this forecast with extreme caution, says Guardian Madrid correspondent Sam Jones: | Another reminder to treat this forecast with extreme caution, says Guardian Madrid correspondent Sam Jones: |
| “I don’t think anyone here trusts polls/exit polls any more. Many were convinced Podemos would leapfrog the social democrat PSOE party to become the second party of Spain in June 2016 election – and it never happened ...” | “I don’t think anyone here trusts polls/exit polls any more. Many were convinced Podemos would leapfrog the social democrat PSOE party to become the second party of Spain in June 2016 election – and it never happened ...” |