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Italy vote: first exit polls show no overall majority but Five Star largest party Italy vote: first exit polls show no overall majority but Five Star largest party – live!
(35 minutes later)
The leader of the far-right La Liga, Matteo Salvini, has tweeted his initial reaction to the election results: “Thank you.”
La mia prima parola: GRAZIE! pic.twitter.com/DRXiWVAHQp
The state broadcaster Rai is venturing some early seat projections for the Italian parliament. They show Berlusconi’s rightwing alliance clearly ahead, followed by Five Star Movement and Renzi’s centre left trailing:
RAI - first seat projection:Centre-right 225-265M5S 195-235Centre-left 115-155LEU 12-20 pic.twitter.com/Yx1KMjMfy1
But if a tie-up between the Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega looks potentially possible, so equally, as John Hooper points out, does an alliance between the centre left and M5S - even if the anti-establishment party has largely ruled out entering into coalitions with anybody else:
Arithmetically, if the exit polling is right (big 'if' btw), the obvious, solid majority is #M5S + #PD & friends. But could the PD, the senior partner in every government since 2013, stomach being the junior partner in a coalition with political tyros?
Here is Guardian Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner’s first considered take on the confused, and confusing, early picture emerging from this election:
About 50% of Italians who voted in national elections on Sunday supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, but victory still looked within reach for a coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, according to early election polls.
While it was still far too early to predict whether the 81-year-old’s centre right coalition would have enough support to cross the threshold to victory, the exit polls indicated that the former prime minister could clinch a win following a campaign that promised a tough new approach to the migrant crisis.
Regardless of the final outcome, the exit polls appeared to reveal a monumental shift in a majority of Italian voters, who have traditionally sided with big mainstream parties.
The Five Star Movement, an anti-establishment party that was founded by former comedian Beppe Grillo and has voiced deep scepticism about the euro and Italy’s role in Nata, appeared to have won between 29-31% of the votes, according to the early exit polls.
It seems one possible coalition - and not completely outlandish, given that it looks like around 50% of voters have cast their ballots for populist, anti-establishment and/or far-right parties - could be the anti-immigration La Lega, anti-establishment Five Star, and nationalist Brothers of Italy.It seems one possible coalition - and not completely outlandish, given that it looks like around 50% of voters have cast their ballots for populist, anti-establishment and/or far-right parties - could be the anti-immigration La Lega, anti-establishment Five Star, and nationalist Brothers of Italy.
That would shake things up.That would shake things up.
Another number to watch, should Berlusconi’s right-wing alliance win the day: will his major ally, La Lega, take more votes than Forza Italia? The exit polls, unreliable as we must stress they are, suggest that might be the case.Another number to watch, should Berlusconi’s right-wing alliance win the day: will his major ally, La Lega, take more votes than Forza Italia? The exit polls, unreliable as we must stress they are, suggest that might be the case.
And once again, a note of caution. The night is yet young, and a lot can and, most likely, will change:And once again, a note of caution. The night is yet young, and a lot can and, most likely, will change:
Things to remember about the Italian election:1. Exit polls aren’t totally reliable2. Seats are allocated by proportional representation AND first-past-the-post.3. So percentages don’t necessarily translate into number of seats.4. Results can differ between the two houses.Things to remember about the Italian election:1. Exit polls aren’t totally reliable2. Seats are allocated by proportional representation AND first-past-the-post.3. So percentages don’t necessarily translate into number of seats.4. Results can differ between the two houses.
Hot takes on what to make of the early polls (bearing in mind exit polls last time around were up to seven points adrift of the final results), from Stephanie Kirschgaessner and the Economist’s John Hooper in Rome:Hot takes on what to make of the early polls (bearing in mind exit polls last time around were up to seven points adrift of the final results), from Stephanie Kirschgaessner and the Economist’s John Hooper in Rome:
Berlusconi's centre right coalition could yet win tonight. But exit polls also indicate a good night for the populists. If they are right, it means about 50% of Italians voted anti-establishment or far right populist.Berlusconi's centre right coalition could yet win tonight. But exit polls also indicate a good night for the populists. If they are right, it means about 50% of Italians voted anti-establishment or far right populist.
RAI exit poll from #Italianelections2018 (range averages) M5S 31% (above expecations), PD 21.5% (pretty woeful) Forza Italia and Lega both on 14% and their coalition around 34.5% (below expectations). But remember: exit polls were inaccurate last time.RAI exit poll from #Italianelections2018 (range averages) M5S 31% (above expecations), PD 21.5% (pretty woeful) Forza Italia and Lega both on 14% and their coalition around 34.5% (below expectations). But remember: exit polls were inaccurate last time.
In Ballarò, a mafia stronghold market area in the historic centre of Palermo, mostly populated by migrants, asylum seekers anxiously awaited the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo.In Ballarò, a mafia stronghold market area in the historic centre of Palermo, mostly populated by migrants, asylum seekers anxiously awaited the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo.
The electoral campaign has been bad news for hundreds of young Africans, as the far-right parties have pledged to kick them out of the country. The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants.The electoral campaign has been bad news for hundreds of young Africans, as the far-right parties have pledged to kick them out of the country. The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants.
Live from #ballarò #elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 pic.twitter.com/7rbBja9UpZLive from #ballarò #elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 pic.twitter.com/7rbBja9UpZ
Former PM Silvio Berlusconi pledged to deport 600,000 illegal immigrants from Italy, a “social bomb ready to explode”. Abdul Rahman, 27, from Gambia, said if the right wins, “it is going to be a disaster for us. We came here for a new start. If they win it’s the begin of the end.’’Former PM Silvio Berlusconi pledged to deport 600,000 illegal immigrants from Italy, a “social bomb ready to explode”. Abdul Rahman, 27, from Gambia, said if the right wins, “it is going to be a disaster for us. We came here for a new start. If they win it’s the begin of the end.’’
The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants, an act described by the nationalist perpetrator as revenge for the murder of an Italian woman, allegedly by a migrant.The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants, an act described by the nationalist perpetrator as revenge for the murder of an Italian woman, allegedly by a migrant.
“I’ve just got my refugee status, and now I’m afraid to lose it,” said Mohammed, 24, from Egypt. Mamaodu, 20, from Senegal, added: “What do I expect from the elections if the right wins? I have my suitcase ready at home.”“I’ve just got my refugee status, and now I’m afraid to lose it,” said Mohammed, 24, from Egypt. Mamaodu, 20, from Senegal, added: “What do I expect from the elections if the right wins? I have my suitcase ready at home.”
Italy’s national public broadcaster, Rai, has roughly comparable numbers in its first exit poll:Italy’s national public broadcaster, Rai, has roughly comparable numbers in its first exit poll:
M5S 29%-32%M5S 29%-32%
Forza Italia 13-16%Forza Italia 13-16%
Lega 13-16%Lega 13-16%
PD 20.5-23.5%PD 20.5-23.5%
Polls have now closed in Italy’s general elections and the first exit polls show the anti-establishment Five Star Movement is the largest single party by a wide margin, with 28%-30% of the vote.Polls have now closed in Italy’s general elections and the first exit polls show the anti-establishment Five Star Movement is the largest single party by a wide margin, with 28%-30% of the vote.
Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is on 13.5%-15.5%, and the far-right League – his allies – on 12.3%-14.3%Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is on 13.5%-15.5%, and the far-right League – his allies – on 12.3%-14.3%
Here we go pic.twitter.com/Z0M8ZNrLY7Here we go pic.twitter.com/Z0M8ZNrLY7
Exit polls are expected imminently. Here’s another pundit’s take on what to watch out for:Exit polls are expected imminently. Here’s another pundit’s take on what to watch out for:
3 things to watch when we'll get exit polls (in ~10m) #Italyelection20181) Has the League got more votes than Forza Italia? 2) How big is the 5 Star Movement lead? 3) Can Forza Italia and the PD form a grand coalition?3 things to watch when we'll get exit polls (in ~10m) #Italyelection20181) Has the League got more votes than Forza Italia? 2) How big is the 5 Star Movement lead? 3) Can Forza Italia and the PD form a grand coalition?
To which is swiftly added:To which is swiftly added:
4) Can 5 Star Movement, Lega and Brothers of Italy form a anti-EU coalition?4) Can 5 Star Movement, Lega and Brothers of Italy form a anti-EU coalition?
As soon as the exit polls are out, the calculating will begin. In theory, a wide variety of combinations are possible to form Italy’s next government, but as Stephanie Kirchgaessner notes, some are more possible than others.As soon as the exit polls are out, the calculating will begin. In theory, a wide variety of combinations are possible to form Italy’s next government, but as Stephanie Kirchgaessner notes, some are more possible than others.
Bear in mind that the anti-establishment Five Star Movement has been forecast to finish as the largest single party on 25-27% of the vote, with the right-wing coalition between Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the anti-immigration La Lega (League) and its smaller far-right allies on course to be the largest bloc - but still short of an outright majority. Bear in mind that the anti-establishment Five Star Movement has been forecast to finish as the largest single party on 25-27% of the vote, with the rightwing coalition between Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the anti-immigration La Lega (League) and its smaller far-right allies on course to be the largest bloc - but still short of an outright majority.
While it is widely expected to fare badly, Matteo Renzi’s centre-left Democratic party (PD) is still part of the calculations:While it is widely expected to fare badly, Matteo Renzi’s centre-left Democratic party (PD) is still part of the calculations:
Here is what people are gaming out. If there is no clear winner, what are the combos that get you a majority and which are just not going to happen? 1/2Here is what people are gaming out. If there is no clear winner, what are the combos that get you a majority and which are just not going to happen? 1/2
One analyst suggested these would not: Berlusconi and M5S (too incompatible), PD and Lega, far left and Lega. What's possible but odd coupling? PD and M5S.One analyst suggested these would not: Berlusconi and M5S (too incompatible), PD and Lega, far left and Lega. What's possible but odd coupling? PD and M5S.
With just over half an hour to go until polls close, a useful reminder from the Guardian’s Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner that Italy’s exit polls have not always been very reliable - and with a new electoral system to contend with, they may be even less so:With just over half an hour to go until polls close, a useful reminder from the Guardian’s Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner that Italy’s exit polls have not always been very reliable - and with a new electoral system to contend with, they may be even less so:
Have Italian exit polls improved since 2013? We'll know around 5am. Last time around, M5S was underestimated.Have Italian exit polls improved since 2013? We'll know around 5am. Last time around, M5S was underestimated.
Berlusconi was confronted with by a Femen activist as he arrived to cast his ballot at a Milan polling station earlier today, writes Angela Giuffrida.
Named as Melodie Mousavi Nameghi, a 29-year-old from France, the topless protestor jumped on top of a table and shouted: “Berlusconi, your time has run out!”
She was detained by police and charged with resisting arrest and disturbing an election. Berlusconi told reporters:
It was an apparition, I don’t know what happened, it was a ghost… I don’t know, I didn’t see anything. So my time is up? Maybe she wanted to say I had reached the end of the queue.
A Femen topless activist confronted Silvio Berlusconi while he was voting for the #Elezioni4Marzo2018 Italian elections. pic.twitter.com/3Qf9BbgSM7
Just under an hour from the first exit polls, a brief reminder of who is standing and what they have - in some cases, you would have to say somewhat rashly - been promising Italy’s voters:
Centre-right: Forza Italia, led by four-time prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, aims to introduce a “parallel currency” for domestic use, keeping the euro for international trade; have a single, flat rate income tax for companies and individuals; abolish housing, inheritance and road tax; double the minimum pension; introduce a minimum income of €1,000 a month for all and block new immigrant arrivals.
Radical right: The League (formerly the Northern League), led by Matteo Salvini, would also introduce a parallel currency; abolish the EU’s fiscal compact; bring in a flat tax for all at 15%; allow earlier retirement; repatriate 100,000 illegal immigrants a year; and reopen Italy’s brothels. Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, is a southern equivalent of the League with neofascist roots and similar policies.
Anti-establishment: The Five Star Movement, led by 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, proposes a minimum monthly income of €780; raising the budget deficit; repealing 400 “useless” laws including labour and pension reforms to allow earlier retirement and make firing harder; raising taxes on energy companies and improving relations with Russia.
Centre-left: The Democratic party, led by former prime minister Matteo Renzi, proposes an increase in the minimum wage; negotiating to abolish the fiscal compact and raising the budget deficit to 3% of GDP so as to cut taxes and increase investment.
Left: Free and Equal is led by Pietro Grasso, and is a new party uniting smaller groups that left Renzi’s Democratic party. It proposes repealing labour and pension reforms and boosting public spending.
The 2018 elections are taking place under a new and untested electoral law that has created a mixed system in which just over a third of parliamentarians in the upper and lower house are elected by first-past-the-post (FPTP), and two-thirds by proportional representation (PR) via party lists.
Voters get two slips, one for each house, and can put one cross on each that will count for both the FPTP and PR elements. Candidates can stand in an FPTP ballot in one constituency, but also be on a party PR list in up to five constituencies.
As the former New York Times Rome bureau chief notes, the new ballot papers are leading to some confusion:
There are already reports of botched ballots in today's Italian election. Here's a sample ballot. A new electoral law dictates a combination of proportional representation and first-past-the-post. Super confusing. pic.twitter.com/UZeTiOt5CR
Bad weather has hit Italy as hard as elsewhere in Europe over the past few days, but there’s at least one voter determined not to let snow get the better of her:
Snow all around, no way to get my car out of the garage, 10km back and forth to the voting point, but I’m walking there no matter what. Voting is a right and a DUTY and I’ll do mine. No matter what you believe go vote! #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/3hnvPZMIuB
Alberto Nardelli of Buzzfeed News reckons it’s going to be a long and probably eventful night, and he’s not the only one.
One of the key things this Italian election is likely to test is Europe’s continuing appetite, after strong performances last year by France’s Front National and Germany’s AfD, for anti-establishment and nation-first populist parties:
Put your helmets on. It’s going to be a turbulent ride. 🇮🇹
The views of a few of Italy’s many overseas voters, collected by Angela Giuffrida and Lorenzo Tondo:
Alberto Montalbano, London:
I feel trapped between a rock and a hard place. I live in a country that voted to oust me, while my birthplace is swarming with populists talking tough about immigration. Italy has seen a large exodus of people in the past decade, not to mention the Italians who left in their millions in the last two centuries. What are they talking about? So I voted for the Democratic party. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only Europhile party left. For good or bad Europe is the future.
Marco Barsotti, Nice:
The elections will probably result in a difficult country to govern. But not having a strong government may be an advantage, as the economy would then be capable of developing without obstacles. Italy wouldn’t be alone in that respect: think about Belgium, which in 2010 had no government for 589 days without big problems.
Luca Guerreschi, Berlin:
Sometimes, Italians’ worst nightmares return: on TV, Berlusconi is the protagonist; on the streets, the fascists show their fierce face. I’m worried; I want to wake up to see a Jacobin, communist Italy - this is the Italy that those who fought in the resistance wanted, and it’s what we want too.
The leader of the far-right, anti-immigrant League (formerly the Northern League) has been tweeting confidently that the political aspirations of centre-left Democratic party leader Matteo Renzi will soon have melted like the snow:
Renzi domani farà la fine di questo simpatico pupazzo di neve: si scioglierà!😁😁😁 #elezioni2018 #oggivotoLega pic.twitter.com/xPwfglIdoK
Guardian correspondent Angela Giuffrida has this - as she notes - rather out of focus shot of a Rome polling station earlier this evening where voters spent upwards of two hours queuing to cast their ballots:
Slightly blurry, but this was a Rome voting booth earlier this evening. High turnout despite the rain, some people waited more than two hours to vote, but wait they did as most I spoke to "want change" #ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/bcN4sLSlqo
Turnout at 7pm in Italy was estimated at around 58%, relatively low historically. As La Repubblica journalist Antonello Guerrero explains, that could translate into a final turnout of less than 70% - lower than in 2006, 2008 and 2013.
2. The Constitutional referendum turnout at 7 pm had a similar trend. Then (in 2016) the final turnout was 68,48%. If it stays so also today, it would be the lowest turnout in Italy republican history In fact, it was 75% in 2013, 81% in 2008, 84% in 2006#ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/Dv5QuOiDRL
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage as Italy goes to the polls in one of its most uncertain general elections in many years.
Partly, that uncertainty is because voting is taking place under a new and as yet untested electoral law. Partly, it’s because as many as 30% of voters were still undecided this week.
And partly it’s because polls have long predicted the election will will result in a hung parliament, leading to possibly months of haggling to form a new coalition government.
Italy’s 46 million voters are fed up with a political class seemingly unable to do anything about Italy’s persistent problems: high unemployment, sluggish economic growth, corruption and a seemingly unending migration crisis.
Their vote could re-establish the veteran former prime minister and billionaire Silvio Berlusconi, 81, as the dominant force in Italian politics (even though he is barred from standing himself because of a tax fraud conviction).
It could show surging support for two populist parties, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (likely to emerge as the largest single party), and the far-right, nativist La Lega, a key member of Berlusconi’s rightwing coalition.
Polls in Europe’s fourth largest economy opened at 7am and will close at 11pm (2200 GMT), with early exit polls expected soon after. Final results are not likely until early morning.
Stay with us for the latest news and reaction - including on-the-spot reports from Guardian writers Stephanie Kirchgaessner, Angela Giuffrida and Lorenzo Tondo – through the night.