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| Italian election: first exit polls show no overall majority but Five Star largest party – live! | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The complicated picture in Italy has had a knock-on effect on the markets. | |
| The euro is trading lower as markets continue to digest the Italian election exit polls and seat projections https://t.co/Ly350lZKHt pic.twitter.com/kJ8bSJWHlx | |
| Hello, it’s Bonnie here taking over the blog from Jon. As he said, nothing is certain at this stage and it won’t be for some time. But the broad theme based on projections is that it has been a good night so far for populist, anti-establishment parties and a bad one for the incumbent centre left. | |
| Anti-EU, anti-immigration Lega appears to have done well as has the anti-establishment 5 Star movement. Hung parliament probable. But given that the coalitions are loose/informal, it’s possible that smaller parties could club together or switch allegiances to muster a majority. | |
| It looks like we’re in for a long night, and very probably several long weeks of coalition talks: | |
| I'll summarize what the men on Italian TV are saying on #elezioni2018 (which, btw, I already anticipated in @TheAtlantic): Center-R (Berlusconi) & Center-L (Renzi) way down. Anti-establishment 5-Star (Di Maio) & far-R League (Salvini) way up. No majority to form a government. | |
| I’m handing this live blog over now to my colleague Bonnie Malkin who will take you through to the European morning. Thanks for staying with us. | |
| “Better a pig than a fascist” reads the poster on display in a radical left community centre in Palermo, Sicily, where antifascists are awaiting the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo. | |
| Political violence has been increasing in Italy in recent weeks between fascists and leftwing activists, including an attack on one of the leaders of the far-right group Forza Nuova in Palermo. | |
| Live from #ballarò #arci porco rosso#elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 #maratonamentana pic.twitter.com/UDXZBoP4yM | |
| “Like in other countries across Europe, the right wing is taking over,” said Tommaso Mazzara, 30, a radical left activist in Palermo. “If M5S wins they are going to get the support of the right to stay in power. And that’s a huge problem.’’ | |
| Irene Russotto, 28, a medical student, said: “These exit polls are dramatic. If M5Stars wins the elections, I don’t think they are going to have the political experience to govern. The country is heading dangerously towards the radical right.’’ | |
| In Rome, Stephanie Kirchgaessner has been speaking to a top election expert, Giovanni Orsina from Luiss University, who cautions that it is far early to make any bold predictions and still believes a hung parliament is the most likely outcome. | |
| But Orsina believes the populists have done better than expected: | |
| What is quite clear is that the centre left were punished. Italy has made real gains in the economy and in unemployment, but voters did not buy it. At least, not a majority of them. | |
| The leader of the far-right La Liga, Matteo Salvini, has tweeted his initial reaction to the election results: “Thank you.” | The leader of the far-right La Liga, Matteo Salvini, has tweeted his initial reaction to the election results: “Thank you.” |
| La mia prima parola: GRAZIE! pic.twitter.com/DRXiWVAHQp | La mia prima parola: GRAZIE! pic.twitter.com/DRXiWVAHQp |
| The state broadcaster Rai is venturing some early seat projections for the Italian parliament. They show Berlusconi’s rightwing alliance clearly ahead, followed by Five Star Movement and Renzi’s centre left trailing: | The state broadcaster Rai is venturing some early seat projections for the Italian parliament. They show Berlusconi’s rightwing alliance clearly ahead, followed by Five Star Movement and Renzi’s centre left trailing: |
| RAI - first seat projection:Centre-right 225-265M5S 195-235Centre-left 115-155LEU 12-20 pic.twitter.com/Yx1KMjMfy1 | RAI - first seat projection:Centre-right 225-265M5S 195-235Centre-left 115-155LEU 12-20 pic.twitter.com/Yx1KMjMfy1 |
| But if a tie-up between the Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega looks potentially possible, so equally, as John Hooper points out, does an alliance between the centre left and M5S - even if the anti-establishment party has largely ruled out entering into coalitions with anybody else: | But if a tie-up between the Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega looks potentially possible, so equally, as John Hooper points out, does an alliance between the centre left and M5S - even if the anti-establishment party has largely ruled out entering into coalitions with anybody else: |
| Arithmetically, if the exit polling is right (big 'if' btw), the obvious, solid majority is #M5S + #PD & friends. But could the PD, the senior partner in every government since 2013, stomach being the junior partner in a coalition with political tyros? | Arithmetically, if the exit polling is right (big 'if' btw), the obvious, solid majority is #M5S + #PD & friends. But could the PD, the senior partner in every government since 2013, stomach being the junior partner in a coalition with political tyros? |
| Here is Guardian Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner’s first considered take on the confused, and confusing, early picture emerging from this election: | Here is Guardian Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner’s first considered take on the confused, and confusing, early picture emerging from this election: |
| About 50% of Italians who voted in national elections on Sunday supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, but victory still looked within reach for a coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, according to early election polls. | About 50% of Italians who voted in national elections on Sunday supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, but victory still looked within reach for a coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, according to early election polls. |
| While it was still far too early to predict whether the 81-year-old’s centre right coalition would have enough support to cross the threshold to victory, the exit polls indicated that the former prime minister could clinch a win following a campaign that promised a tough new approach to the migrant crisis. | While it was still far too early to predict whether the 81-year-old’s centre right coalition would have enough support to cross the threshold to victory, the exit polls indicated that the former prime minister could clinch a win following a campaign that promised a tough new approach to the migrant crisis. |
| Regardless of the final outcome, the exit polls appeared to reveal a monumental shift in a majority of Italian voters, who have traditionally sided with big mainstream parties. | Regardless of the final outcome, the exit polls appeared to reveal a monumental shift in a majority of Italian voters, who have traditionally sided with big mainstream parties. |
| The Five Star Movement, an anti-establishment party that was founded by former comedian Beppe Grillo and has voiced deep scepticism about the euro and Italy’s role in Nata, appeared to have won between 29-31% of the votes, according to the early exit polls. | The Five Star Movement, an anti-establishment party that was founded by former comedian Beppe Grillo and has voiced deep scepticism about the euro and Italy’s role in Nata, appeared to have won between 29-31% of the votes, according to the early exit polls. |
| It seems one possible coalition - and not completely outlandish, given that it looks like around 50% of voters have cast their ballots for populist, anti-establishment and/or far-right parties - could be the anti-immigration La Lega, anti-establishment Five Star, and nationalist Brothers of Italy. | It seems one possible coalition - and not completely outlandish, given that it looks like around 50% of voters have cast their ballots for populist, anti-establishment and/or far-right parties - could be the anti-immigration La Lega, anti-establishment Five Star, and nationalist Brothers of Italy. |
| That would shake things up. | That would shake things up. |
| Another number to watch, should Berlusconi’s right-wing alliance win the day: will his major ally, La Lega, take more votes than Forza Italia? The exit polls, unreliable as we must stress they are, suggest that might be the case. | Another number to watch, should Berlusconi’s right-wing alliance win the day: will his major ally, La Lega, take more votes than Forza Italia? The exit polls, unreliable as we must stress they are, suggest that might be the case. |
| And once again, a note of caution. The night is yet young, and a lot can and, most likely, will change: | And once again, a note of caution. The night is yet young, and a lot can and, most likely, will change: |
| Things to remember about the Italian election:1. Exit polls aren’t totally reliable2. Seats are allocated by proportional representation AND first-past-the-post.3. So percentages don’t necessarily translate into number of seats.4. Results can differ between the two houses. | Things to remember about the Italian election:1. Exit polls aren’t totally reliable2. Seats are allocated by proportional representation AND first-past-the-post.3. So percentages don’t necessarily translate into number of seats.4. Results can differ between the two houses. |
| Hot takes on what to make of the early polls (bearing in mind exit polls last time around were up to seven points adrift of the final results), from Stephanie Kirschgaessner and the Economist’s John Hooper in Rome: | Hot takes on what to make of the early polls (bearing in mind exit polls last time around were up to seven points adrift of the final results), from Stephanie Kirschgaessner and the Economist’s John Hooper in Rome: |
| Berlusconi's centre right coalition could yet win tonight. But exit polls also indicate a good night for the populists. If they are right, it means about 50% of Italians voted anti-establishment or far right populist. | Berlusconi's centre right coalition could yet win tonight. But exit polls also indicate a good night for the populists. If they are right, it means about 50% of Italians voted anti-establishment or far right populist. |
| RAI exit poll from #Italianelections2018 (range averages) M5S 31% (above expecations), PD 21.5% (pretty woeful) Forza Italia and Lega both on 14% and their coalition around 34.5% (below expectations). But remember: exit polls were inaccurate last time. | RAI exit poll from #Italianelections2018 (range averages) M5S 31% (above expecations), PD 21.5% (pretty woeful) Forza Italia and Lega both on 14% and their coalition around 34.5% (below expectations). But remember: exit polls were inaccurate last time. |
| In Ballarò, a mafia stronghold market area in the historic centre of Palermo, mostly populated by migrants, asylum seekers anxiously awaited the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo. | In Ballarò, a mafia stronghold market area in the historic centre of Palermo, mostly populated by migrants, asylum seekers anxiously awaited the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo. |
| The electoral campaign has been bad news for hundreds of young Africans, as the far-right parties have pledged to kick them out of the country. The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants. | The electoral campaign has been bad news for hundreds of young Africans, as the far-right parties have pledged to kick them out of the country. The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants. |
| Live from #ballarò #elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 pic.twitter.com/7rbBja9UpZ | Live from #ballarò #elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 pic.twitter.com/7rbBja9UpZ |
| Former PM Silvio Berlusconi pledged to deport 600,000 illegal immigrants from Italy, a “social bomb ready to explode”. Abdul Rahman, 27, from Gambia, said if the right wins, “it is going to be a disaster for us. We came here for a new start. If they win it’s the begin of the end.’’ | Former PM Silvio Berlusconi pledged to deport 600,000 illegal immigrants from Italy, a “social bomb ready to explode”. Abdul Rahman, 27, from Gambia, said if the right wins, “it is going to be a disaster for us. We came here for a new start. If they win it’s the begin of the end.’’ |
| The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants, an act described by the nationalist perpetrator as revenge for the murder of an Italian woman, allegedly by a migrant. | The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants, an act described by the nationalist perpetrator as revenge for the murder of an Italian woman, allegedly by a migrant. |
| “I’ve just got my refugee status, and now I’m afraid to lose it,” said Mohammed, 24, from Egypt. Mamaodu, 20, from Senegal, added: “What do I expect from the elections if the right wins? I have my suitcase ready at home.” | “I’ve just got my refugee status, and now I’m afraid to lose it,” said Mohammed, 24, from Egypt. Mamaodu, 20, from Senegal, added: “What do I expect from the elections if the right wins? I have my suitcase ready at home.” |
| Italy’s national public broadcaster, Rai, has roughly comparable numbers in its first exit poll: | Italy’s national public broadcaster, Rai, has roughly comparable numbers in its first exit poll: |
| M5S 29%-32% | M5S 29%-32% |
| Forza Italia 13-16% | Forza Italia 13-16% |
| Lega 13-16% | Lega 13-16% |
| PD 20.5-23.5% | PD 20.5-23.5% |
| Polls have now closed in Italy’s general elections and the first exit polls show the anti-establishment Five Star Movement is the largest single party by a wide margin, with 28%-30% of the vote. | Polls have now closed in Italy’s general elections and the first exit polls show the anti-establishment Five Star Movement is the largest single party by a wide margin, with 28%-30% of the vote. |
| Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is on 13.5%-15.5%, and the far-right League – his allies – on 12.3%-14.3% | Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is on 13.5%-15.5%, and the far-right League – his allies – on 12.3%-14.3% |
| Here we go pic.twitter.com/Z0M8ZNrLY7 | Here we go pic.twitter.com/Z0M8ZNrLY7 |
| Exit polls are expected imminently. Here’s another pundit’s take on what to watch out for: | Exit polls are expected imminently. Here’s another pundit’s take on what to watch out for: |
| 3 things to watch when we'll get exit polls (in ~10m) #Italyelection20181) Has the League got more votes than Forza Italia? 2) How big is the 5 Star Movement lead? 3) Can Forza Italia and the PD form a grand coalition? | 3 things to watch when we'll get exit polls (in ~10m) #Italyelection20181) Has the League got more votes than Forza Italia? 2) How big is the 5 Star Movement lead? 3) Can Forza Italia and the PD form a grand coalition? |
| To which is swiftly added: | To which is swiftly added: |
| 4) Can 5 Star Movement, Lega and Brothers of Italy form a anti-EU coalition? | 4) Can 5 Star Movement, Lega and Brothers of Italy form a anti-EU coalition? |
| As soon as the exit polls are out, the calculating will begin. In theory, a wide variety of combinations are possible to form Italy’s next government, but as Stephanie Kirchgaessner notes, some are more possible than others. | As soon as the exit polls are out, the calculating will begin. In theory, a wide variety of combinations are possible to form Italy’s next government, but as Stephanie Kirchgaessner notes, some are more possible than others. |
| Bear in mind that the anti-establishment Five Star Movement has been forecast to finish as the largest single party on 25-27% of the vote, with the rightwing coalition between Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the anti-immigration La Lega (League) and its smaller far-right allies on course to be the largest bloc - but still short of an outright majority. | Bear in mind that the anti-establishment Five Star Movement has been forecast to finish as the largest single party on 25-27% of the vote, with the rightwing coalition between Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the anti-immigration La Lega (League) and its smaller far-right allies on course to be the largest bloc - but still short of an outright majority. |
| While it is widely expected to fare badly, Matteo Renzi’s centre-left Democratic party (PD) is still part of the calculations: | While it is widely expected to fare badly, Matteo Renzi’s centre-left Democratic party (PD) is still part of the calculations: |
| Here is what people are gaming out. If there is no clear winner, what are the combos that get you a majority and which are just not going to happen? 1/2 | Here is what people are gaming out. If there is no clear winner, what are the combos that get you a majority and which are just not going to happen? 1/2 |
| One analyst suggested these would not: Berlusconi and M5S (too incompatible), PD and Lega, far left and Lega. What's possible but odd coupling? PD and M5S. | One analyst suggested these would not: Berlusconi and M5S (too incompatible), PD and Lega, far left and Lega. What's possible but odd coupling? PD and M5S. |
| With just over half an hour to go until polls close, a useful reminder from the Guardian’s Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner that Italy’s exit polls have not always been very reliable - and with a new electoral system to contend with, they may be even less so: | With just over half an hour to go until polls close, a useful reminder from the Guardian’s Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner that Italy’s exit polls have not always been very reliable - and with a new electoral system to contend with, they may be even less so: |
| Have Italian exit polls improved since 2013? We'll know around 5am. Last time around, M5S was underestimated. | Have Italian exit polls improved since 2013? We'll know around 5am. Last time around, M5S was underestimated. |