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| Hungary election: Viktor Orbán expected to win third term - live updates | Hungary election: Viktor Orbán expected to win third term - live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| We won’t know the preliminary results of these elections for some time, but Hungarian journalists are already assessing the most likely outcomes. | |
| The website Index, citing party data, says that ruling party Fidesz has taken a hit in the capital, but proved to be very popular in the countryside, winning more voters than in 2014. | |
| An official government site, AboutHungary, seems to endorse the analysis. AboutHungary reports Index’s forecasts that Fidesz and its Christian Democratic ally, the KDNP, are expected to win 116 out of 199 seats in Hungary’s national assembly. | |
| Health warning: these are not official results. | |
| First results of #hungarianelections will only be available around 10pm, but preliminary information published by Hungarian news site https://t.co/U2eUrq4kFq shows #Fidesz is going to win big in the countryside, while it is set to lose mandates in the capital and a few cities. | |
| Hungary’s national election office has said it expects to release preliminary results of the election around 11pm local time (10pm BST), later than originally thought. | |
| Hundreds of people have been queuing to vote in Budapest, long past the official poll closing time of 7pm. | |
| The head of the office, Ilona Palffy, told private broadcaster ATV that turnout in two districts had been much higher than anticipated. | |
| Here are some images of voters in Budapest queuing to cast their votes, after the official closing at 7pm local time (6pm BST). | |
| The ‘Stop’ poster reveals how Viktor Orbán has put hostility to migrants at the centre of his campaign. The Guardian’s Shaun Walker sums up this aspect of Orbán’s political project. | The ‘Stop’ poster reveals how Viktor Orbán has put hostility to migrants at the centre of his campaign. The Guardian’s Shaun Walker sums up this aspect of Orbán’s political project. |
| I arrived in Budapest a month ago and, while Viktor Orbán has been spewing far right rhetoric for several years, as an outsider coming in, the concentration and intensity of the anti-migration message has been shocking. | |
| Orbán speaks in terms that in most countries would be the preserve of extreme rightwing fringe parties, telling Hungarians that “tens of millions” of migrants from Africa and the Middle East are waiting to kick down Hungary’s door and warning that they will bring terror, crime and rape with them. | |
| He has accused the Hungarian-American billionaire George Soros of hatching a plan to destroy Hungary by flooding it with migrants, and Budapest has been plastered with posters decrying Soros for the past year. The most prominent of these shows a grinning Soros with all the opposition politicians, accusing them of being in league in a plot to cut down Orbán’s anti-migrant fence that runs along the country’s southern border. | He has accused the Hungarian-American billionaire George Soros of hatching a plan to destroy Hungary by flooding it with migrants, and Budapest has been plastered with posters decrying Soros for the past year. The most prominent of these shows a grinning Soros with all the opposition politicians, accusing them of being in league in a plot to cut down Orbán’s anti-migrant fence that runs along the country’s southern border. |
| Shortly before the election, a new poster appeared, this one not even officially a Fidesz campaign poster but simply part of a publicly funded “government information” campaign. It shows the same photograph used in Ukip’s controversial “breaking point” poster and is embossed with one simple word: STOP. | |
| Fed a diet of scare stories about migrants by the government-friendly media, many Hungarians support Orbán on migration. But the Fidesz campaign has centre almost exclusively around the topic. Orbán has hammered home the dangers of migration in almost every speech. It remains to be seen whether a one-issue campaign is enough to win an election. If it is, the big question is where Fidesz goes from there during the next four years, having already ramped up the rhetoric to fever pitch. | |
| There are still people queuing to cast a vote in Budapest, according to election officials. | There are still people queuing to cast a vote in Budapest, according to election officials. |
| Hungary’s national elections office has said it will not announce any preliminary results until all votes are counted, according to the official site abouthungary.hu | Hungary’s national elections office has said it will not announce any preliminary results until all votes are counted, according to the official site abouthungary.hu |
| The last polling station is expected to close at around 10pm (9pm BST) in Budapest. Anyone who arrived in the queue before the official closing time of 7pm was told they would be able to vote. | |
| Meanwhile, opposition activists are gathering in central Budapest to await those preliminary results. | Meanwhile, opposition activists are gathering in central Budapest to await those preliminary results. |
| Opposition supporters gathering in a tent at Parliament in #Budapest. First results are to be published within some minutes. #HungaryElections pic.twitter.com/2vZD3qyuMm | Opposition supporters gathering in a tent at Parliament in #Budapest. First results are to be published within some minutes. #HungaryElections pic.twitter.com/2vZD3qyuMm |
| Elsewhere, an election techno party is under way. | |
| Meanwhile, huge techno election afterparty on Freedom Square, near parliament. #Hungary pic.twitter.com/eIyFaQaZEc | Meanwhile, huge techno election afterparty on Freedom Square, near parliament. #Hungary pic.twitter.com/eIyFaQaZEc |
| There is something familiar about one of Viktor Orbán’s election posters, seen here in the town of Gyongyos. | There is something familiar about one of Viktor Orbán’s election posters, seen here in the town of Gyongyos. |
| The image shows migrants crossing the Croatian-Slovenian border: mainly men, mainly Syrians and Afghans, searching for a new life in Germany. The picture has been deployed as part of Orbán’s anti-migrant campaign, the main theme of his pre-election rallies. | The image shows migrants crossing the Croatian-Slovenian border: mainly men, mainly Syrians and Afghans, searching for a new life in Germany. The picture has been deployed as part of Orbán’s anti-migrant campaign, the main theme of his pre-election rallies. |
| The same image was used by Ukip in 2016, when the party launched its infamous ‘Breaking Point’ poster during the EU referendum. The Getty photographer who took the image later told the Guardian that Ukip had betrayed the people in the photo. | The same image was used by Ukip in 2016, when the party launched its infamous ‘Breaking Point’ poster during the EU referendum. The Getty photographer who took the image later told the Guardian that Ukip had betrayed the people in the photo. |
| Hungarian civil society activists have also been mobilising this evening in Budapest. | Hungarian civil society activists have also been mobilising this evening in Budapest. |
| The Common Country Movement, a group pushing for electoral reform, was holding an election party in front of the Hungarian parliament. | The Common Country Movement, a group pushing for electoral reform, was holding an election party in front of the Hungarian parliament. |
| Márton Gulyás, the leader of the Common Country Movement, stopped to talk to the Budapest Beacon’s Benjamin Novak. | Márton Gulyás, the leader of the Common Country Movement, stopped to talk to the Budapest Beacon’s Benjamin Novak. |
| Exclusive interview with Márton Gulyás, president of Common Country Movement, one of the significant political activists in Hungary today. His org is holding an election night party next to parliament. But why did they choose this spot? Why are their so many police present? pic.twitter.com/F2hfSoR9eq | Exclusive interview with Márton Gulyás, president of Common Country Movement, one of the significant political activists in Hungary today. His org is holding an election night party next to parliament. But why did they choose this spot? Why are their so many police present? pic.twitter.com/F2hfSoR9eq |
| Gulyás said the group had chosen to have their event near the parliament because “it is a symbolic place”. He hopes the turnout will be above 70%. | Gulyás said the group had chosen to have their event near the parliament because “it is a symbolic place”. He hopes the turnout will be above 70%. |
| Here is a despatch from the Guardian’s Shaun Walker, who is at the Fidesz election night HQ on the Danube. | Here is a despatch from the Guardian’s Shaun Walker, who is at the Fidesz election night HQ on the Danube. |
| I have just spoke to Orbán’s spokesman Zoltán Kovács. He claimed the high turnout was a sign that “Hungarian democracy is alive and ticking”. He said the two-thirds majority was not a necessary benchmark: “if it’s a convincing majority, that’s going to be enough”. Possibly another sign that Fidesz is managing expectations and does not expect to win the two-thirds constitutional majority. | I have just spoke to Orbán’s spokesman Zoltán Kovács. He claimed the high turnout was a sign that “Hungarian democracy is alive and ticking”. He said the two-thirds majority was not a necessary benchmark: “if it’s a convincing majority, that’s going to be enough”. Possibly another sign that Fidesz is managing expectations and does not expect to win the two-thirds constitutional majority. |
| Meanwhile, there is still a long queue at a polling station in Budapest’s 11th district and the electoral office says no preliminary results will be published until everyone has voted. It could take another hour and a half apparently. All the voters who were in line before the polls closed at 7pm can still vote. | Meanwhile, there is still a long queue at a polling station in Budapest’s 11th district and the electoral office says no preliminary results will be published until everyone has voted. It could take another hour and a half apparently. All the voters who were in line before the polls closed at 7pm can still vote. |
| Bulcsú Hunyadi, an analyst at the Political Capital in Budapest, said it was pretty difficult to tell what the higher turnout meant. It has traditionally been seen as a sign that opposition support is up, but there has also been a high turnout in pro-Fidesz rural areas. It also raises the possibility that some of the smaller parties will not make it past the 5% threshold required to get into parliament. | Bulcsú Hunyadi, an analyst at the Political Capital in Budapest, said it was pretty difficult to tell what the higher turnout meant. It has traditionally been seen as a sign that opposition support is up, but there has also been a high turnout in pro-Fidesz rural areas. It also raises the possibility that some of the smaller parties will not make it past the 5% threshold required to get into parliament. |
| Polling day is a family affair in many countries and Hungary is no different. Viktor Orbán’s main challengers also showed up with their nearest and dearest. | Polling day is a family affair in many countries and Hungary is no different. Viktor Orbán’s main challengers also showed up with their nearest and dearest. |
| Gergely Karácsony is the leader of the leftwing alliance of Socialist and Dialogue parties. He thinks higher turnout will favour the opposition. | Gergely Karácsony is the leader of the leftwing alliance of Socialist and Dialogue parties. He thinks higher turnout will favour the opposition. |
| Gábor Vona, pictured, leads the far-right Jobbik party, which is trying to move away from its roots as a far right, antisemitic party. He has said the shift will bring the party into government, sooner or later. | Gábor Vona, pictured, leads the far-right Jobbik party, which is trying to move away from its roots as a far right, antisemitic party. He has said the shift will bring the party into government, sooner or later. |
| A spokesman for Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party has said it is unlikely to get a two-thirds majority. Viktor Orbán’s party won a two-thirds majority in 2010 and 2014, which enabled him to change the constitution. The super-majority was lost in a 2015 byelection defeat. | A spokesman for Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party has said it is unlikely to get a two-thirds majority. Viktor Orbán’s party won a two-thirds majority in 2010 and 2014, which enabled him to change the constitution. The super-majority was lost in a 2015 byelection defeat. |
| Going into the poll, most analysts predicted that Fidesz would not get a two-thirds majority, but would keep overall control. The latest forecast came from Gergely Gulyás, Fidesz group leader. | Going into the poll, most analysts predicted that Fidesz would not get a two-thirds majority, but would keep overall control. The latest forecast came from Gergely Gulyás, Fidesz group leader. |
| While we wait for the results, it is worth looking at how Hungary’s electoral system works. | While we wait for the results, it is worth looking at how Hungary’s electoral system works. |
| Voters are electing 199 members of parliament in a single round. A total of 106 seats can be won in single-member constituencies in a first-past-the-post system. The remaining 93 seats are awarded under a list system. | Voters are electing 199 members of parliament in a single round. A total of 106 seats can be won in single-member constituencies in a first-past-the-post system. The remaining 93 seats are awarded under a list system. |
| Fidesz has changed election rules since 2010, boosting the ruling party’s chances against a fragmented leftwing opposition and the far-right Jobbik party. | Fidesz has changed election rules since 2010, boosting the ruling party’s chances against a fragmented leftwing opposition and the far-right Jobbik party. |
| Reuters has produced this useful list of the key changes. | Reuters has produced this useful list of the key changes. |
| The total number of seats was reduced from 386 to 199 in 2011. District boundaries have been redrawn, and critics say gerrymandering was significant. | The total number of seats was reduced from 386 to 199 in 2011. District boundaries have been redrawn, and critics say gerrymandering was significant. |
| A second voting round was eliminated, denying parties the option of clinching deals between the rounds, which contributed to the splintering of the current opposition. | A second voting round was eliminated, denying parties the option of clinching deals between the rounds, which contributed to the splintering of the current opposition. |
| The system of voter compensation was changed in favour of winning candidates. In local districts, any vote not used to win a first-past-the-post race is added to national lists, including for the winner. | The system of voter compensation was changed in favour of winning candidates. In local districts, any vote not used to win a first-past-the-post race is added to national lists, including for the winner. |
| Ethnic Hungarians were given the right to citizenship. Some 378,000 new citizens have registered to vote in this election and the majority of them support Fidesz. | Ethnic Hungarians were given the right to citizenship. Some 378,000 new citizens have registered to vote in this election and the majority of them support Fidesz. |
| Postal votes were outlawed for hundreds of thousands of Hungarians working abroad, who are not necessarily Fidesz supporters. They can only vote in person at Hungarian embassies or consulates, limiting their ability to participate. | Postal votes were outlawed for hundreds of thousands of Hungarians working abroad, who are not necessarily Fidesz supporters. They can only vote in person at Hungarian embassies or consulates, limiting their ability to participate. |
| Parties must field candidates in at least 27 local districts to maintain a national list and receive state support for their campaign, limiting options for parties to cooperate. | Parties must field candidates in at least 27 local districts to maintain a national list and receive state support for their campaign, limiting options for parties to cooperate. |
| Hungary may be heading for its highest-ever voter turnout, according to a spokesman for the ruling party, Fidesz. | Hungary may be heading for its highest-ever voter turnout, according to a spokesman for the ruling party, Fidesz. |
| Gergely Gulyás, the Fidesz group leader, thanked Hungarians for the high turnout, according to an official website, AboutHungary.hu | Gergely Gulyás, the Fidesz group leader, thanked Hungarians for the high turnout, according to an official website, AboutHungary.hu |
| Hungarian democracy is strong, this is what the high turnout signals. We thank all those who have voted, this way the next government can have a strong legitimacy. | Hungarian democracy is strong, this is what the high turnout signals. We thank all those who have voted, this way the next government can have a strong legitimacy. |
| It may very well be the highest turnout ever. The parliament of Hungary will then be especially strong. | It may very well be the highest turnout ever. The parliament of Hungary will then be especially strong. |
| Here are more reports of the long queues to vote, from correspondents in Budapest. | Here are more reports of the long queues to vote, from correspondents in Budapest. |
| Politico’s correspondent, Lili Bayer, tells of a heavy police presence. | Politico’s correspondent, Lili Bayer, tells of a heavy police presence. |
| The Guardian’s Shaun Walker has heard from voters in London, who said the Hungarian embassy was not prepared to deal with the numbers wanting to vote. | The Guardian’s Shaun Walker has heard from voters in London, who said the Hungarian embassy was not prepared to deal with the numbers wanting to vote. |
| I was emailed by a couple of people saying the Hungarian Embassy in London is not geared up to deal with all the voters who want to vote, and this video on index shows just how crazy the line is there - extraordinary https://t.co/2Z4n9il1YA | I was emailed by a couple of people saying the Hungarian Embassy in London is not geared up to deal with all the voters who want to vote, and this video on index shows just how crazy the line is there - extraordinary https://t.co/2Z4n9il1YA |
| And from Andrew Byrne of the Sunday Times. | And from Andrew Byrne of the Sunday Times. |
| In Budapest, Brussels and London, there have been reports of long queues to vote. | In Budapest, Brussels and London, there have been reports of long queues to vote. |
| In London some Hungarians have waited two hours to cast their ballot, according to Index.hu, which also reports one three-hour wait at a polling station at a school in Budapest. | In London some Hungarians have waited two hours to cast their ballot, according to Index.hu, which also reports one three-hour wait at a polling station at a school in Budapest. |
| Hungary: People queuing to vote in today's Hungarian parliamentary election in Budapest, Brussels and London. High turnout expected. #Választás2018 pic.twitter.com/h7PeVk5SlQ | Hungary: People queuing to vote in today's Hungarian parliamentary election in Budapest, Brussels and London. High turnout expected. #Választás2018 pic.twitter.com/h7PeVk5SlQ |
| Viktor Orbán, accompanied by his wife, Aniko Levai, voted this morning in a wealthy neighbourhood in Budapest. | Viktor Orbán, accompanied by his wife, Aniko Levai, voted this morning in a wealthy neighbourhood in Budapest. |
| Speaking to journalists, he said he would stand up for Hungary’s interests. | Speaking to journalists, he said he would stand up for Hungary’s interests. |
| We love our country and we are fighting for our country | We love our country and we are fighting for our country |
| Asked if he was fighting the European Union, he said: | Asked if he was fighting the European Union, he said: |
| The EU is not in Brussels. The EU is in Berlin, in Budapest, in Prague and in Bucharest. | The EU is not in Brussels. The EU is in Berlin, in Budapest, in Prague and in Bucharest. |
| A post on his Facebook page later showed him attending church. | A post on his Facebook page later showed him attending church. |
| I’ve taken the quotes from Reuters | I’ve taken the quotes from Reuters |
| Good evening and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Hungary’s parliamentary elections, one of the least predictable votes in the country’s recent history. | Good evening and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Hungary’s parliamentary elections, one of the least predictable votes in the country’s recent history. |
| The outcome matters, not only because Hungary is a European Union member state at the geographic heart of the continent, but because these elections could be decisive for the country’s future direction. During eight years in power the current prime minister, Viktor Orbán has re-written the constitution, tightened control over the media and judiciary and put loyalists in key posts. | The outcome matters, not only because Hungary is a European Union member state at the geographic heart of the continent, but because these elections could be decisive for the country’s future direction. During eight years in power the current prime minister, Viktor Orbán has re-written the constitution, tightened control over the media and judiciary and put loyalists in key posts. |
| Polls have closed, with long lines seen just outside voting stations in Budapest. Election officials have said they will remain open until everyone in the line by the 7pm close (6pm BST) has been able to vote. | Polls have closed, with long lines seen just outside voting stations in Budapest. Election officials have said they will remain open until everyone in the line by the 7pm close (6pm BST) has been able to vote. |
| My colleague, Shaun Walker, the Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent, has been visiting polling stations in Budapest today. | My colleague, Shaun Walker, the Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent, has been visiting polling stations in Budapest today. |
| Here is his assessment of what could happen: | Here is his assessment of what could happen: |
| It will be a nervous wait for Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s hardline rightwing prime minister to find out how his Fidesz party has done and whether he will win a third consecutive term as prime minister, after a campaign focused almost exclusively on migration. | It will be a nervous wait for Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s hardline rightwing prime minister to find out how his Fidesz party has done and whether he will win a third consecutive term as prime minister, after a campaign focused almost exclusively on migration. |
| The turnout at 3pm was up 8% on the 2014 vote, possibly a good sign for Orbán’s opponents. There are no reliable exit polls in Hungary so we may have to wait a bit before we get a sense of the result. | The turnout at 3pm was up 8% on the 2014 vote, possibly a good sign for Orbán’s opponents. There are no reliable exit polls in Hungary so we may have to wait a bit before we get a sense of the result. |
| There are three potential outcomes: either Fidesz keeps the two-thirds parliamentary majority it has enjoyed for the last eight years, which would be a resounding mandate for Orbán’s anti-migrant politics and give him a free hand to continue with legislative and constitutional changes. | There are three potential outcomes: either Fidesz keeps the two-thirds parliamentary majority it has enjoyed for the last eight years, which would be a resounding mandate for Orbán’s anti-migrant politics and give him a free hand to continue with legislative and constitutional changes. |
| Another possibility is Fidesz loses the two-thirds majority but keeps a simple majority, giving Orbán another term as prime minister. Going into the vote, this is what many analysts were predicting. | Another possibility is Fidesz loses the two-thirds majority but keeps a simple majority, giving Orbán another term as prime minister. Going into the vote, this is what many analysts were predicting. |
| The final plausible outcome is that the high turnout means opposition gains, which could leave Orbán without a majority in the 199-seat parliament to form a government and would usher in a period of messy coalition dealmaking. | The final plausible outcome is that the high turnout means opposition gains, which could leave Orbán without a majority in the 199-seat parliament to form a government and would usher in a period of messy coalition dealmaking. |
| The opposition is split between Jobbik, the former far-right party which has been trying to rebrand itself as a centrist anti-corruption force, and a number of smaller liberal parties. They have been unable to agree on strategically withdrawing candidates to present united fronts against Fidesz in each district, partly because the level of state funding political parties receive is dependent on how many candidates they field. But a number of sites and groups have been set up to advise Hungarians who want a change of government on the best way to vote tactically in each district. | The opposition is split between Jobbik, the former far-right party which has been trying to rebrand itself as a centrist anti-corruption force, and a number of smaller liberal parties. They have been unable to agree on strategically withdrawing candidates to present united fronts against Fidesz in each district, partly because the level of state funding political parties receive is dependent on how many candidates they field. But a number of sites and groups have been set up to advise Hungarians who want a change of government on the best way to vote tactically in each district. |