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| Bank of England gives mixed signals on rate rise, Trump slams Opec on oil prices - live | Bank of England gives mixed signals on rate rise, Trump slams Opec on oil prices - live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Pharmaceutical group Shire has responded to the fourth takeover proposal from Japan’s Takeda, which values the target at £47 a share. | |
| As before, Shire says it is considering its position and will make a further announcement in due course. Shire shares closed in London at 3821.5p, down 3.8%. | |
| With last night’s comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney casting some doubt on whether there will indeed be an interest rate rise in May, the pound continues to slip back against the dollar. | With last night’s comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney casting some doubt on whether there will indeed be an interest rate rise in May, the pound continues to slip back against the dollar. |
| It is currently down 0.43% at $1.4028 having soared as high as $1.4376 earlier this week. David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: | It is currently down 0.43% at $1.4028 having soared as high as $1.4376 earlier this week. David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: |
| [The pound] is under pressure after Mark Carney’s comments last night. In recent months there was a lot of speculation the Bank of England could hike interest rates next month, and in light of Mr Carney’s remarks, a rate rise looks less likely now. Traders are almost evenly divided over whether there will be a rate hike next month. The pound has enjoyed a positive run recently, and we are now seeing some profit-taking. | [The pound] is under pressure after Mark Carney’s comments last night. In recent months there was a lot of speculation the Bank of England could hike interest rates next month, and in light of Mr Carney’s remarks, a rate rise looks less likely now. Traders are almost evenly divided over whether there will be a rate hike next month. The pound has enjoyed a positive run recently, and we are now seeing some profit-taking. |
| Sterling has been rising versus the US dollar for over a year, and while it holds above the 1.3800 region, its outlook could remain positive. | Sterling has been rising versus the US dollar for over a year, and while it holds above the 1.3800 region, its outlook could remain positive. |
| But against the euro, the pound is faring slightly better and is up 0.14% at €1.1424. | But against the euro, the pound is faring slightly better and is up 0.14% at €1.1424. |
| Oil prices have slipped further after Donald Trump’s Twitter intervention into the market. Brent crude is now down 0.64% at $73.31 a barrel after earlier hitting a day’s high of $74.15. Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, said: | Oil prices have slipped further after Donald Trump’s Twitter intervention into the market. Brent crude is now down 0.64% at $73.31 a barrel after earlier hitting a day’s high of $74.15. Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, said: |
| Oil prices [have] rolled over from three-year highs. US President Donald Trump has found another financial market to tweet about. The Donald tweeted that OPEC has pushed oil prices artificially high. It’s hard to argue against, that’s the purpose of forming a cartel. | Oil prices [have] rolled over from three-year highs. US President Donald Trump has found another financial market to tweet about. The Donald tweeted that OPEC has pushed oil prices artificially high. It’s hard to argue against, that’s the purpose of forming a cartel. |
| It won’t have escaped Trump’s attention that rising gasoline prices can quickly eclipse any financial benefits to rust belt America from his tax cuts. The question is whether Trump has more than bluster on Twitter to impact the oil price. He probably does, but these tools are already in use. The US government has already opened up drilling rights on and offshore and US production is soaring as a result, adding to supply to the market. | It won’t have escaped Trump’s attention that rising gasoline prices can quickly eclipse any financial benefits to rust belt America from his tax cuts. The question is whether Trump has more than bluster on Twitter to impact the oil price. He probably does, but these tools are already in use. The US government has already opened up drilling rights on and offshore and US production is soaring as a result, adding to supply to the market. |
| Here’s Suhail Mohammed Faraj Al Mazroui, the minister of energy in the United Arab Emirates, on the oil market: | Here’s Suhail Mohammed Faraj Al Mazroui, the minister of energy in the United Arab Emirates, on the oil market: |
| OPEC members are not targeting any price level rather targeting a well balanced market and our efforts together with our partners from Non-OPEC alliance have helped the market rebalance and the oil industry | OPEC members are not targeting any price level rather targeting a well balanced market and our efforts together with our partners from Non-OPEC alliance have helped the market rebalance and the oil industry |
| Back with the UK and the comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney, Investec’s chief economist still expects a rate hike in May: | Back with the UK and the comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney, Investec’s chief economist still expects a rate hike in May: |
| BoE Gov Carney’s talk of ‘mixed data’ is perhaps a euphemism for soft inflation. We still expect a May rate increase, but for lower inflation to make the MPC more dependent on labour market data to justify hikes. #BOE | BoE Gov Carney’s talk of ‘mixed data’ is perhaps a euphemism for soft inflation. We still expect a May rate increase, but for lower inflation to make the MPC more dependent on labour market data to justify hikes. #BOE |
| The better than expected eurozone consumer confidence figures come despite all the negative headlines surrounding US sanctions and a possible trade war with China. Economist Bert Colijn at ING Bank said: | The better than expected eurozone consumer confidence figures come despite all the negative headlines surrounding US sanctions and a possible trade war with China. Economist Bert Colijn at ING Bank said: |
| Even though worries about the global economy have been increasing on the back of trade war concerns and a higher oil price, there is still a lot to like for the Eurozone consumer. Inflation has remained subdued despite the higher oil price and unemployment continues to decrease. While consumers may not be on cloud nine anymore, the economic environment remains positive for consumption. | Even though worries about the global economy have been increasing on the back of trade war concerns and a higher oil price, there is still a lot to like for the Eurozone consumer. Inflation has remained subdued despite the higher oil price and unemployment continues to decrease. While consumers may not be on cloud nine anymore, the economic environment remains positive for consumption. |
| Last month, consumer confidence was stable at 0.1, but underlying data revealed another deterioration in consumer sentiment. The lower expectations for inflation count positively in the indicator, making up for deteriorating views on the global economy, personal finances and chances of unemployment. The uncertainty in the global economy stemming from trade war concerns seems to play an important role here. ECB president Mario Draghi recently commented that the direct effects of a trade war on the economy would be quite limited, but that damage through weaker confidence could have a more harmful effect on growth. This release suggests that this channel may not be that concerning for consumers so far, but next week’s PMI release may prove Draghi’s concerns to be more significant for the business sector. | Last month, consumer confidence was stable at 0.1, but underlying data revealed another deterioration in consumer sentiment. The lower expectations for inflation count positively in the indicator, making up for deteriorating views on the global economy, personal finances and chances of unemployment. The uncertainty in the global economy stemming from trade war concerns seems to play an important role here. ECB president Mario Draghi recently commented that the direct effects of a trade war on the economy would be quite limited, but that damage through weaker confidence could have a more harmful effect on growth. This release suggests that this channel may not be that concerning for consumers so far, but next week’s PMI release may prove Draghi’s concerns to be more significant for the business sector. |
| Over in the eurozone and consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in April. | Over in the eurozone and consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in April. |
| The European Commission said its consumer confidence index climbed to 0.4, up from 0.1 in March and better than the forecast fall to -0.2. The commission said: | The European Commission said its consumer confidence index climbed to 0.4, up from 0.1 in March and better than the forecast fall to -0.2. The commission said: |
| The Eurozone’s consumer confidence indicator rose by 0.3 points from the previous month to 0.4 in April 2018, easily beating market expectations of -0.2, a flash estimate showed. In the European Union as a whole, consumer sentiment decreased by 0.5 points to -0.8. | The Eurozone’s consumer confidence indicator rose by 0.3 points from the previous month to 0.4 in April 2018, easily beating market expectations of -0.2, a flash estimate showed. In the European Union as a whole, consumer sentiment decreased by 0.5 points to -0.8. |
| Oil producers meeting in Jeddah have hit back after Donald Trump said they were keeping crude prices “artificially high”. Reuters reports: | Oil producers meeting in Jeddah have hit back after Donald Trump said they were keeping crude prices “artificially high”. Reuters reports: |
| OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said the pact between OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut production had halted the collapse in global oil prices, and said the group was a friend of the United States with an interest in its prosperity. | OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said the pact between OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut production had halted the collapse in global oil prices, and said the group was a friend of the United States with an interest in its prosperity. |
| Output cuts “not only arrested the decline but rescued the oil industry from imminent collapse and is now on course to restore stability on a sustainable basis in the interest of producers, consumers and the global economy,” Barkindo said. | Output cuts “not only arrested the decline but rescued the oil industry from imminent collapse and is now on course to restore stability on a sustainable basis in the interest of producers, consumers and the global economy,” Barkindo said. |
| Energy ministers from the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, two OPEC members, also rejected the notion that prices were too high. | Energy ministers from the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, two OPEC members, also rejected the notion that prices were too high. |
| The bid saga surrounding pharmaceuticals group Shire continues, with Japanese predator Takeda announcing an increase in its offer. | The bid saga surrounding pharmaceuticals group Shire continues, with Japanese predator Takeda announcing an increase in its offer. |
| The terms are improved from £46.50 to £47 a share, comprising £21 in cash and £26 of new Takeda shares. The new offer values Shire at around £43bn. | The terms are improved from £46.50 to £47 a share, comprising £21 in cash and £26 of new Takeda shares. The new offer values Shire at around £43bn. |
| Nissan is planning to cut hundreds of jobs at its Sunderland factory in response to the sharp fall in demand for diesel cars. | Nissan is planning to cut hundreds of jobs at its Sunderland factory in response to the sharp fall in demand for diesel cars. |
| The Japanese car manufacturer makes its Qashqai and Juke models at the plant, and said it was talking to workers about the changes. | The Japanese car manufacturer makes its Qashqai and Juke models at the plant, and said it was talking to workers about the changes. |
| We will be managing a planned short-term reduction in powertrain supply and plant volumes. | We will be managing a planned short-term reduction in powertrain supply and plant volumes. |
| It’s been a volatile day for the pound against the dollar. | It’s been a volatile day for the pound against the dollar. |
| Sterling is currently down 0.5% at $1.4019, weighed down by Mark Carney’s comments last night in which he suggested a May rate is not a done deal. | Sterling is currently down 0.5% at $1.4019, weighed down by Mark Carney’s comments last night in which he suggested a May rate is not a done deal. |
| The pound is faring better against the euro, up 0.1% at €1.1419. | The pound is faring better against the euro, up 0.1% at €1.1419. |
| Here’s how it looked when the opening bell rang on Wall Street: | Here’s how it looked when the opening bell rang on Wall Street: |
| Dow Jones: +0.04% at 24,676 | Dow Jones: +0.04% at 24,676 |
| S&P 500: +0.02% at 2,694 | S&P 500: +0.02% at 2,694 |
| Nasdaq: -0.2% at 7,223 | Nasdaq: -0.2% at 7,223 |
| The FTSE 100 is up 50 points or 0.3% but not all of the UK’s biggest listed firms are having a good day. | The FTSE 100 is up 50 points or 0.3% but not all of the UK’s biggest listed firms are having a good day. |
| Shares in consumer giant Reckitt Benckiser are down 3.9%, while drugmaker Shire is down 4.3% after Allergan pulled the plug on a potential takeover bid. | Shares in consumer giant Reckitt Benckiser are down 3.9%, while drugmaker Shire is down 4.3% after Allergan pulled the plug on a potential takeover bid. |
| Here’s how it looks at the bottom of the table: | Here’s how it looks at the bottom of the table: |
| Andrew Goodwin, lead economist at Oxford Economics, says Mark Carney’s comments last night are a “game changer” and suggest the next rate rise could be put off until June or August: | Andrew Goodwin, lead economist at Oxford Economics, says Mark Carney’s comments last night are a “game changer” and suggest the next rate rise could be put off until June or August: |
| Mark Carney’s BBC interview on Thursday night threatens to be a game changer in terms of May’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. | Mark Carney’s BBC interview on Thursday night threatens to be a game changer in terms of May’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. |
| The MPC had consistently talked up the chances of a May hike, despite a lengthy run of soft economic data, but the Governor gave a clear sign that the Committee is wavering. | The MPC had consistently talked up the chances of a May hike, despite a lengthy run of soft economic data, but the Governor gave a clear sign that the Committee is wavering. |
| There is now a very real chance of the next hike being postponed to June, or even August. But more important than the exact timing of the next move is the degree to which a more rapid slowdown in inflation and weak momentum behind wage growth could undermine the MPC’s case for subsequent hikes. | There is now a very real chance of the next hike being postponed to June, or even August. But more important than the exact timing of the next move is the degree to which a more rapid slowdown in inflation and weak momentum behind wage growth could undermine the MPC’s case for subsequent hikes. |