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| Pound dips as Carney casts doubt on May rate rise - business live | Pound dips as Carney casts doubt on May rate rise - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, is giving a speech in Glasgow this morning. | |
| His comments will be scrutinised by investors and economists hoping for further clues about the likelihood (or not) of a May rate rise. | |
| Saunders is one of the MPC’s most hawkish members - tending to favour tighter monetary policy - and was one of two of the nine-strong committee to vote for a hike in March. The other was Ian McCafferty. | |
| We’ll bring you the highlights of the speech after 10.30am | |
| Economists at the Bank of America say they are sticking with the assumption that UK rates will rise in May, for now at least: | Economists at the Bank of America say they are sticking with the assumption that UK rates will rise in May, for now at least: |
| Until last night we assumed the weak data flow would not derail a May hike. There were no signs of cold feet at the Bank of England after a hawkish March policy meeting and rate setter Jan Vlieghe arguing for six hikes in the next three years. | Until last night we assumed the weak data flow would not derail a May hike. There were no signs of cold feet at the Bank of England after a hawkish March policy meeting and rate setter Jan Vlieghe arguing for six hikes in the next three years. |
| Then last night Governor Mark Carney suggested delay. In a BBC interview he said the BoE was conscious of “other meetings over the course of the year” when they could hike. | Then last night Governor Mark Carney suggested delay. In a BBC interview he said the BoE was conscious of “other meetings over the course of the year” when they could hike. |
| As hints go, we think it’s as strong as we get. The data justify delay in our view. We have been sceptical of the need for a May hike. We stick with a May hike for now, waiting to see if other rate setters speak. But the 85% market probability on a May hike looks (much) too high now. | As hints go, we think it’s as strong as we get. The data justify delay in our view. We have been sceptical of the need for a May hike. We stick with a May hike for now, waiting to see if other rate setters speak. But the 85% market probability on a May hike looks (much) too high now. |
| British government bond prices are rising this morning, as investors are less convinced that interest rates will rise in May. | British government bond prices are rising this morning, as investors are less convinced that interest rates will rise in May. |
| Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, suggested markets might have got carried away by assuming a hike would come next month. | Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, suggested markets might have got carried away by assuming a hike would come next month. |
| The yield on benchmark 10-year bonds fell four basis points to 1.49% (where a lower yield reflects a higher price). | The yield on benchmark 10-year bonds fell four basis points to 1.49% (where a lower yield reflects a higher price). |
| Five-year bond yields were down five basis points at 1.18%. | Five-year bond yields were down five basis points at 1.18%. |
| Moya Greene’s departure from Royal Mail will leave the FTSE 100 with just five female chief executives, at a time when the government is pushing for greater boardroom diversity. | Moya Greene’s departure from Royal Mail will leave the FTSE 100 with just five female chief executives, at a time when the government is pushing for greater boardroom diversity. |
| Commenting on her departure - after the company announced she will step down as chief executive in June and retire in September - Greene said: | Commenting on her departure - after the company announced she will step down as chief executive in June and retire in September - Greene said: |
| It has been my pleasure and a great privilege to serve as chief executive of this cherished UK institution. I am proud of what we have achieved over the last eight years. It is very pleasing to note that around 20% of this company is owned by our employees and retail shareholders. | It has been my pleasure and a great privilege to serve as chief executive of this cherished UK institution. I am proud of what we have achieved over the last eight years. It is very pleasing to note that around 20% of this company is owned by our employees and retail shareholders. |
| Most of all, I am honoured to have worked alongside Royal Mail’s people and the union leadership. It is their hard work and dedication that connects households, communities and companies across the UK every day. | Most of all, I am honoured to have worked alongside Royal Mail’s people and the union leadership. It is their hard work and dedication that connects households, communities and companies across the UK every day. |
| Royal Mail has announced that Moya Greene will step down as chief executive in June, after more than eight years in the job. | Royal Mail has announced that Moya Greene will step down as chief executive in June, after more than eight years in the job. |
| The Canadian oversaw the privatisation of Royal Mail in 2013 and has “transformed” the business according to chairman Peter Long. | The Canadian oversaw the privatisation of Royal Mail in 2013 and has “transformed” the business according to chairman Peter Long. |
| Greene will be replaced by Rico Back, chief executive of Royal Mail’s European subsidiary, General Logistics Systems. | Greene will be replaced by Rico Back, chief executive of Royal Mail’s European subsidiary, General Logistics Systems. |
| Announcing the changes, Long said: | Announcing the changes, Long said: |
| Royal Mail was highly fortunate to recruit Moya, given her direct experience, strategic vision, drive and proven track record across a range of industry sectors. | Royal Mail was highly fortunate to recruit Moya, given her direct experience, strategic vision, drive and proven track record across a range of industry sectors. |
| When Moya joined in the summer of 2010, the company was balance sheet insolvent. Since then, Royal Mail has been transformed, including our privatisation in 2013 and two significant, ground-breaking agreements with the CWU [Communication Workers Union]. | When Moya joined in the summer of 2010, the company was balance sheet insolvent. Since then, Royal Mail has been transformed, including our privatisation in 2013 and two significant, ground-breaking agreements with the CWU [Communication Workers Union]. |
| Alongside the strong financial position Moya has secured for the company, we have invested over £1.5 billion in our UK operation in recent years. We are one of the most favourably viewed brands in the UK. I would like to extend to Moya our sincere thanks for her tremendous contribution during a defining time for us. | Alongside the strong financial position Moya has secured for the company, we have invested over £1.5 billion in our UK operation in recent years. We are one of the most favourably viewed brands in the UK. I would like to extend to Moya our sincere thanks for her tremendous contribution during a defining time for us. |
| After a short break, the unreliable boyfriend is back according to Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. | After a short break, the unreliable boyfriend is back according to Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. |
| Mark Carney may well rue the day back in 2014 that MP Pat McFadden accused the Bank of behaving like an “unreliable boyfriend” by giving mixed messages on the likely timing of an interest rate rise. | Mark Carney may well rue the day back in 2014 that MP Pat McFadden accused the Bank of behaving like an “unreliable boyfriend” by giving mixed messages on the likely timing of an interest rate rise. |
| Fast forward to 2018 and markets are once again confused by the Bank’s signals after Carney suggested last night policymakers might not raise rates in May as widely expected. | Fast forward to 2018 and markets are once again confused by the Bank’s signals after Carney suggested last night policymakers might not raise rates in May as widely expected. |
| Hewson says: | Hewson says: |
| Sterling traders could be forgiven for experiencing a significant case of déjà vu in the wake of yesterday’s remarks, as this isn’t the first time the Bank of England has led markets up the garden path, they did it in 2014, with the Bank of England governor earning the unfortunate moniker of the “unreliable boyfriend” from a UK MP for his flip flopping on whether to raise interest rates. | Sterling traders could be forgiven for experiencing a significant case of déjà vu in the wake of yesterday’s remarks, as this isn’t the first time the Bank of England has led markets up the garden path, they did it in 2014, with the Bank of England governor earning the unfortunate moniker of the “unreliable boyfriend” from a UK MP for his flip flopping on whether to raise interest rates. |
| It would appear that after a short break he’s back. | It would appear that after a short break he’s back. |
| The UK’s FTSE 100 is outperforming its major European peers this morning as it benefits from a weaker pound. | The UK’s FTSE 100 is outperforming its major European peers this morning as it benefits from a weaker pound. |
| FTSE 100: +0.5% at 7,364 | FTSE 100: +0.5% at 7,364 |
| Germany’s DAX: -0.1% at 12,556 | Germany’s DAX: -0.1% at 12,556 |
| France’s CAC: +0.1% at 5,399 | France’s CAC: +0.1% at 5,399 |
| Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.2% at 23,740 | Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.2% at 23,740 |
| Spain’s IBEX: flat at 9,868 | Spain’s IBEX: flat at 9,868 |
| Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.2% at 381 | Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.2% at 381 |
| The Barclays board is giving its full support to chief executive Jes Staley this morning, despite regulators concluding that he breached conduct by trying to discover the identity of a whisteblower. | The Barclays board is giving its full support to chief executive Jes Staley this morning, despite regulators concluding that he breached conduct by trying to discover the identity of a whisteblower. |
| From the Barclays statement: | From the Barclays statement: |
| The Barclays board continues to have unanimous confidence in Mr Staley and continues to recommend his re- election as a director at the Barclays annual general meeting on 1 May 2018. | The Barclays board continues to have unanimous confidence in Mr Staley and continues to recommend his re- election as a director at the Barclays annual general meeting on 1 May 2018. |
| As set out in the April 2017 announcement, the Barclays board will determine what adjustment to Mr Staley’s compensation is appropriate once the FCA and PRA processes have concluded. | As set out in the April 2017 announcement, the Barclays board will determine what adjustment to Mr Staley’s compensation is appropriate once the FCA and PRA processes have concluded. |
| Barclays CEO Jes Staley will keep his job, after regulators conclude whistle-blower investigation https://t.co/4RHbPWkwoR pic.twitter.com/0I0X50lEEB | Barclays CEO Jes Staley will keep his job, after regulators conclude whistle-blower investigation https://t.co/4RHbPWkwoR pic.twitter.com/0I0X50lEEB |
| Barclays’ chief executive Jes Staley is to be fined by UK regulators over his attempt to uncover the identity of a whistleblower in 2016, the bank revealed this morning. | Barclays’ chief executive Jes Staley is to be fined by UK regulators over his attempt to uncover the identity of a whistleblower in 2016, the bank revealed this morning. |
| It is not yet clear how much Staley will be fined by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority, which have so far issued the boss with “draft warning notices”. | It is not yet clear how much Staley will be fined by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority, which have so far issued the boss with “draft warning notices”. |
| The regulators have stopped short of saying that Staley is not fit or proper to run the bank. | The regulators have stopped short of saying that Staley is not fit or proper to run the bank. |
| It follows Staley’s admission that he had tried to unmask a whistleblower who made allegations about a long-term associate he had brought to the bank. | It follows Staley’s admission that he had tried to unmask a whistleblower who made allegations about a long-term associate he had brought to the bank. |
| Staley twice attempted to use Barclay’s internal security team to track down the authors of two anonymous letters sent to the board and a senior executive at the bank in June 2016. | Staley twice attempted to use Barclay’s internal security team to track down the authors of two anonymous letters sent to the board and a senior executive at the bank in June 2016. |
| Here is an extract from the statement from Barclays this morning: | Here is an extract from the statement from Barclays this morning: |
| In respect of Mr Staley, the FCA and PRA have recently issued confidential draft warning notices setting out their reasons for proposing enforcement actions. | In respect of Mr Staley, the FCA and PRA have recently issued confidential draft warning notices setting out their reasons for proposing enforcement actions. |
| The FCA and PRA are alleging that Mr Staley’s actions in relation to this matter represented a breach of Individual Conduct Rule 2 (requirement to act with due skill, care and diligence) and each have proposed that he pay a financial penalty. | The FCA and PRA are alleging that Mr Staley’s actions in relation to this matter represented a breach of Individual Conduct Rule 2 (requirement to act with due skill, care and diligence) and each have proposed that he pay a financial penalty. |
| The FCA and PRA are not alleging that he acted with a lack of integrity or that he lacks fitness and propriety to continue to perform his role as group chief executive officer. | The FCA and PRA are not alleging that he acted with a lack of integrity or that he lacks fitness and propriety to continue to perform his role as group chief executive officer. |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| The pound is down this morning after Bank of England governor Mark Carney hinted that market expectations that interest rates would rise in May were overblown. | The pound is down this morning after Bank of England governor Mark Carney hinted that market expectations that interest rates would rise in May were overblown. |
| Investors closely monitoring the recent voting patterns and comments made by the Bank’s policymakers had decided there was a 90% chance that rates will rise from 0.5% to 0.75% at the next meeting of the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee on 10 May. | Investors closely monitoring the recent voting patterns and comments made by the Bank’s policymakers had decided there was a 90% chance that rates will rise from 0.5% to 0.75% at the next meeting of the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee on 10 May. |
| However, Carney told the BBC last night that the MPC were not fixed on a particular month for raising rates and pointed to some softer UK data, such as retail sales. | However, Carney told the BBC last night that the MPC were not fixed on a particular month for raising rates and pointed to some softer UK data, such as retail sales. |
| Here’s what he had to say: | Here’s what he had to say: |
| Prepare for a few interest rate rises over the next few years,” he told me. | Prepare for a few interest rate rises over the next few years,” he told me. |
| I don’t want to get too focused on the precise timing, it is more about the general path. | I don’t want to get too focused on the precise timing, it is more about the general path. |
| We have had some mixed data. On the softer side some of the business surveys have come off. Retail sales have been a bit softer - we are all aware of the squeeze that is going on in the high street. | We have had some mixed data. On the softer side some of the business surveys have come off. Retail sales have been a bit softer - we are all aware of the squeeze that is going on in the high street. |
| We’ll sit down calmly and look at it all in the round. I am sure there will be some differences of view but it is a view we will take in early May, conscious that there are other meetings over the course of this year. | We’ll sit down calmly and look at it all in the round. I am sure there will be some differences of view but it is a view we will take in early May, conscious that there are other meetings over the course of this year. |
| The pound is down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.4058, and down 0.2% against the euro at €1.1388. | The pound is down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.4058, and down 0.2% against the euro at €1.1388. |
| In other breaking news this morning Barclays boss Jes Staley is to be fined by UK regulators after he attempted to uncover the identity of a whistleblower. More on that soon. | In other breaking news this morning Barclays boss Jes Staley is to be fined by UK regulators after he attempted to uncover the identity of a whistleblower. More on that soon. |
| Stay with us for all the day’s economic and financial news | Stay with us for all the day’s economic and financial news |