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California Primary Election 2018: Democrats Go After G.O.P.-Held Seats California Primary Election 2018: Democrats Go After G.O.P.-Held Seats
(35 minutes later)
LOS ANGELES — This is a big Election Day in California, and the country is watching. Battles for House seats the Democrats are counting on in the midterms and for a new governor, where Republicans could be shut out, have swept across the state.LOS ANGELES — This is a big Election Day in California, and the country is watching. Battles for House seats the Democrats are counting on in the midterms and for a new governor, where Republicans could be shut out, have swept across the state.
All of this has been complicated by California’s unconventional election system: The top two finishers in Tuesday’s nonpartisan, open primary will face each other in November. And that is causing headaches for both parties.All of this has been complicated by California’s unconventional election system: The top two finishers in Tuesday’s nonpartisan, open primary will face each other in November. And that is causing headaches for both parties.
Here’s how to get up to speed:Here’s how to get up to speed:
• Polls close Tuesday at 8 p.m. Pacific time (you can find your polling place through the secretary of state’s website). California is a notoriously slow state when it comes to counting ballots, but we’ll have live results here.• Polls close Tuesday at 8 p.m. Pacific time (you can find your polling place through the secretary of state’s website). California is a notoriously slow state when it comes to counting ballots, but we’ll have live results here.
• Need a primer to understand the stakes of the California races? Start here. And here’s an explanation of how the state’s unusual primary system works.• Need a primer to understand the stakes of the California races? Start here. And here’s an explanation of how the state’s unusual primary system works.
• Seven Republican-held congressional districts voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Democrats have so many candidates competing for a finite number of voters in three of them that Republicans could end up capturing both top slots in each. Here’s a collection of charts that explore the data behind those key districts.• Seven Republican-held congressional districts voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Democrats have so many candidates competing for a finite number of voters in three of them that Republicans could end up capturing both top slots in each. Here’s a collection of charts that explore the data behind those key districts.
• Republicans face the possibility of not having a candidate in the race for governor, where Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom appears well positioned, and Senate, where Dianne Feinstein is running for a sixth term.• Republicans face the possibility of not having a candidate in the race for governor, where Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom appears well positioned, and Senate, where Dianne Feinstein is running for a sixth term.
• President Trump has endorsed one of the Republican candidates for governor, John Cox, which could give Mr. Cox enough votes to win the other slot. (“He will make a BIG difference!” the president tweeted on Tuesday.) Given how overwhelmingly Democratic the state is — and Mr. Cox’s ties to Mr. Trump — that outcome would no doubt result in many people declaring Mr. Newsom the presumptive next governor.• President Trump has endorsed one of the Republican candidates for governor, John Cox, which could give Mr. Cox enough votes to win the other slot. (“He will make a BIG difference!” the president tweeted on Tuesday.) Given how overwhelmingly Democratic the state is — and Mr. Cox’s ties to Mr. Trump — that outcome would no doubt result in many people declaring Mr. Newsom the presumptive next governor.
• But if Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat and former mayor of Los Angeles, wins that second spot, look out for a competitive, classic North-South battle.• But if Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat and former mayor of Los Angeles, wins that second spot, look out for a competitive, classic North-South battle.
• How will Latino voting power count in the primary? Here’s what we know. Will younger Asian-Americans help turn Orange County blue? Our reporter went home to find out.• How will Latino voting power count in the primary? Here’s what we know. Will younger Asian-Americans help turn Orange County blue? Our reporter went home to find out.
• Check out photographs from campaigns and primaries around the state, and of voters who told us about what message they hope the results will send.• Check out photographs from campaigns and primaries around the state, and of voters who told us about what message they hope the results will send.
• We have 30 journalists throughout the state. This week, many of them will be on the ground reporting from the most competitive congressional districts, including races in the Central Valley, Orange County and San Diego. Follow them and on Twitter, and check out a collection of their compelling tweets.• We have 30 journalists throughout the state. This week, many of them will be on the ground reporting from the most competitive congressional districts, including races in the Central Valley, Orange County and San Diego. Follow them and on Twitter, and check out a collection of their compelling tweets.
• Seven other states are holding primaries on Tuesday: Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. Catch up with our rundown because we’ll have live results, and check out the primary calendar for the rest of the year. • Seven other states are holding primaries on Tuesday: Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. Catch up with our rundown because we have live results, and check out the primary calendar for the rest of the year.
• Get the latest news on the state in your inbox by signing up for California Today here.• Get the latest news on the state in your inbox by signing up for California Today here.
Mr. Trump derided the state as “High Tax, High Crime California” and urged voters to back “all of the great GOP candidates for Congress.” Beyond Mr. Cox, he specifically endorsed two Republican incumbents who have been key allies, Representatives Kevin McCarthy, the House majority leader, and Devin Nunes, known for his defense of Mr. Trump in the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.Mr. Trump derided the state as “High Tax, High Crime California” and urged voters to back “all of the great GOP candidates for Congress.” Beyond Mr. Cox, he specifically endorsed two Republican incumbents who have been key allies, Representatives Kevin McCarthy, the House majority leader, and Devin Nunes, known for his defense of Mr. Trump in the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
Liam StackLiam Stack
Tuesday is Election Day, which means Wednesday is — depending on the results — Blame Day. The big question is, who would be at fault if Democrats get locked out of some competitive Republican-held congressional races? (And read more about the districts here.)Tuesday is Election Day, which means Wednesday is — depending on the results — Blame Day. The big question is, who would be at fault if Democrats get locked out of some competitive Republican-held congressional races? (And read more about the districts here.)
Here are some nominees:Here are some nominees:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, for lurching from candidate to candidate in some of these districts (until the end), giving voters little help in navigating ballots swimming with mostly unknown names.The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, for lurching from candidate to candidate in some of these districts (until the end), giving voters little help in navigating ballots swimming with mostly unknown names.
The California Democratic Party, for failing to groom a bench of candidates for this moment — and for its largely unsuccessful efforts to clear the field.The California Democratic Party, for failing to groom a bench of candidates for this moment — and for its largely unsuccessful efforts to clear the field.
California’s nonpartisan top-two election system. This election reform may end up producing the worst-case scenario Democratic and Republican leaders warned about when it was passed by voters in 2010. With so many candidates jumping into the open primary, Democrats are fighting over a set number of voters. From this point of view, there was little state or national Democrats could do.California’s nonpartisan top-two election system. This election reform may end up producing the worst-case scenario Democratic and Republican leaders warned about when it was passed by voters in 2010. With so many candidates jumping into the open primary, Democrats are fighting over a set number of voters. From this point of view, there was little state or national Democrats could do.
Adam NagourneyAdam Nagourney
In the state’s nonpartisan top-two system, voters can cast a ballot for any candidate, regardless of party. Historically, that means these top-two primaries look a lot like the general election.In the state’s nonpartisan top-two system, voters can cast a ballot for any candidate, regardless of party. Historically, that means these top-two primaries look a lot like the general election.
Since 1990, the major party vote share in top-two congressional primaries in Washington State and California has differed from the general election result by an average of three percentage points, an Upshot analysis shows.Since 1990, the major party vote share in top-two congressional primaries in Washington State and California has differed from the general election result by an average of three percentage points, an Upshot analysis shows.
That means the California results will be about as good as any data we are going to get before November. The average House poll over the final three weeks of an election is off by an average margin of 6.2 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. The primary results are a bit like getting a free round of 52 final House polls in early June.That means the California results will be about as good as any data we are going to get before November. The average House poll over the final three weeks of an election is off by an average margin of 6.2 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. The primary results are a bit like getting a free round of 52 final House polls in early June.
The results are good enough that you can put stock in a surprise. In 2016, Representative Darrell Issa’s seat was rated “Safely Republican” by the Cook Political Report heading into the primary. But he ended up with just 50.8 percent of the vote, the closest House election of the cycle.The results are good enough that you can put stock in a surprise. In 2016, Representative Darrell Issa’s seat was rated “Safely Republican” by the Cook Political Report heading into the primary. But he ended up with just 50.8 percent of the vote, the closest House election of the cycle.
If this is a wave environment like in 2006 or 2010, which would probably make the Democrats slight to modest favorites to retake the House, it should not be too hard to tell. (Read more here.)If this is a wave environment like in 2006 or 2010, which would probably make the Democrats slight to modest favorites to retake the House, it should not be too hard to tell. (Read more here.)
Nate CohnNate Cohn
Like many voters in Orange County, Tim Cain, 52, has been inundated with political messaging in recent weeks. He was bombarded with mail. His phone did not stop ringing.Like many voters in Orange County, Tim Cain, 52, has been inundated with political messaging in recent weeks. He was bombarded with mail. His phone did not stop ringing.
“I literally could not go through my work day without getting flooded with calls,” said Mr. Cain, a video game developer. “I basically said, my phone is no longer available.”“I literally could not go through my work day without getting flooded with calls,” said Mr. Cain, a video game developer. “I basically said, my phone is no longer available.”
But some combination of that barrage and his desire to support a Democrat drew him to a polling station at a Buick car dealership in Tustin on Tuesday morning in the 45th Congressional District.But some combination of that barrage and his desire to support a Democrat drew him to a polling station at a Buick car dealership in Tustin on Tuesday morning in the 45th Congressional District.
About 20 miles south, at Laguna Beach City Hall, Aggie Dougherty had to thumb through the sample ballot packet she carried with her to remember which Democrat she had chosen after more than a dozen candidates inundated the 48th Congressional District with campaign material.About 20 miles south, at Laguna Beach City Hall, Aggie Dougherty had to thumb through the sample ballot packet she carried with her to remember which Democrat she had chosen after more than a dozen candidates inundated the 48th Congressional District with campaign material.
Ms. Dougherty, a 67-year-old bookkeeper, read the fliers that landed in her mailbox, talked to friends, and listened to the news and advertisements. Then, she selected Harley Rouda, the candidate endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in an unusual move aimed at preventing Democrats from losing a spot on the November ballot by splitting the vote in the primary. This morning, she just needed to double-check.Ms. Dougherty, a 67-year-old bookkeeper, read the fliers that landed in her mailbox, talked to friends, and listened to the news and advertisements. Then, she selected Harley Rouda, the candidate endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in an unusual move aimed at preventing Democrats from losing a spot on the November ballot by splitting the vote in the primary. This morning, she just needed to double-check.
“Oh, right,” she said. “Harley.”“Oh, right,” she said. “Harley.”
Jennifer Medina and Ivan PennJennifer Medina and Ivan Penn
In the 48th District, Scott Baugh, a Republican candidate and former Orange County party chairman, talked with voters about attack ads targeting him, including mailers and television advertisements.In the 48th District, Scott Baugh, a Republican candidate and former Orange County party chairman, talked with voters about attack ads targeting him, including mailers and television advertisements.
“Those came from Nancy Pelosi, you know,” he said, referring to the ads. (The ads were paid for by the House Majority PAC, a heavily financed Democratic group.) “She is so afraid of me making the next round that she is trying to shut me out.”“Those came from Nancy Pelosi, you know,” he said, referring to the ads. (The ads were paid for by the House Majority PAC, a heavily financed Democratic group.) “She is so afraid of me making the next round that she is trying to shut me out.”
Hans Keirstead, a Democrat running in the 48th, said he had “real fear that a party could be locked out this year.”Hans Keirstead, a Democrat running in the 48th, said he had “real fear that a party could be locked out this year.”
Rocky Chavez, a Republican candidate in the 49th District race who has had to face down the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in addition to his own party rival, also criticized the system. In a race that features 16 candidates, the campaign committee had attacked Mr. Chavez for fear that right-leaning Democrats might support him, further diluting the party’s chances.Rocky Chavez, a Republican candidate in the 49th District race who has had to face down the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in addition to his own party rival, also criticized the system. In a race that features 16 candidates, the campaign committee had attacked Mr. Chavez for fear that right-leaning Democrats might support him, further diluting the party’s chances.
“We’re doing a personality test,” said Mr. Chavez, who wore a Rocky Balboa T-shirt on Tuesday.“We’re doing a personality test,” said Mr. Chavez, who wore a Rocky Balboa T-shirt on Tuesday.
At least one Republican in the race enjoyed a bit of schadenfreude.At least one Republican in the race enjoyed a bit of schadenfreude.
“These guys are going to split the race so wide,” said Ted Howze, a Republican candidate competing against five Democrats and the Republican incumbent in the 10th District. “The Democrats have shot themselves in the foot.”“These guys are going to split the race so wide,” said Ted Howze, a Republican candidate competing against five Democrats and the Republican incumbent in the 10th District. “The Democrats have shot themselves in the foot.”
But for Mark Kramer, 64, a retired maintenance worker in the hotly contested 39th District, none of the choices had appealed enough to induce him to cast a ballot. “Not crazy about the political climate,” he said at the post office on Birch Street in Brea, Calif. “Or any of the candidates.”But for Mark Kramer, 64, a retired maintenance worker in the hotly contested 39th District, none of the choices had appealed enough to induce him to cast a ballot. “Not crazy about the political climate,” he said at the post office on Birch Street in Brea, Calif. “Or any of the candidates.”
Jennifer Medina, Jose A. Del Real, Thomas Fuller and Miriam JordanJennifer Medina, Jose A. Del Real, Thomas Fuller and Miriam Jordan
While Facebook announced new rules on April 6 mandating that campaign ads be clearly labeled and say who had bought them, the rules did not go into effect until late May, not long before the state’s primaries.While Facebook announced new rules on April 6 mandating that campaign ads be clearly labeled and say who had bought them, the rules did not go into effect until late May, not long before the state’s primaries.
Facebook has said that the process it put in place is a “solid step,” but in a call with reporters last month, executives acknowledged that there would be instances where they did not catch ads that should have been labeled political campaign ads. (Read more in our story.)Facebook has said that the process it put in place is a “solid step,” but in a call with reporters last month, executives acknowledged that there would be instances where they did not catch ads that should have been labeled political campaign ads. (Read more in our story.)
Sheera FrenkelSheera Frenkel
Much of the 21st Congressional District, where the Republican David Valadao is the incumbent, is so rural that many people are required to vote absentee or by mail. Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has represented coastal Orange County for so long, he is something of an institution in the 48th Congressional district, where many voters tend to refer to him by his first name. He has cultivated an image as a kind of iconoclast - a surfer and libertarian who supports legal marijuana. Even his less popular views haven’t hurt him and played well in this area along the coast for three decades.
Steve Walker, a Republican and farmer from Hanford who has 900 acres of almonds and walnuts, dropped off his ballot early on Friday. He voted for Travis Allen for governor, and for Mr. Valadao. “I understand he doesn’t vote 100 percent for us, but 90 percent to 95 percent of the time, I think he is on our side,” he said of Mr. Valadao. But there were many signs Tuesday that the support is wearing thin. Voters in both parties complained of him not spending enough time in the district, not answering questions from constituents he disagrees with and being too cozy with Russia. (A few signs declaring “Nyet Rohrabacher” were scattered through the district.)
Mr. Walker, 49, says he is thrilled with Mr. Trump’s actions for farmers. He also said that undocumented workers who have been in the country for a long time and do not have a criminal record should be able to become citizens. “Dana has been in office way too long and done absolutely nothing for the district,” said Derek Demun, a college student who voted for Republican challenger Scott Baugh. “He didn’t support tax cuts, which was the most obvious thing to do. This is not an inexpensive place to live and every dollar in back in my parents’ pocket makes a difference.”
On Monday afternoon, T.J. Cox, a Democratic candidate, visited with David and Dorothy Boldt, of D.E. Boldt Farms, at their ranch in the near-100-degree heat. Dorothy, a registered Republican, voted for Bernie Sanders for president in 2016, while her husband, David, a Democrat, said he held his nose and voted for Mrs. Clinton. Both support Mr. Cox’s campaign. Derek’s mother, Gidget, said she had voted for Mr. Rohrabacher in every other election, but could not bring herself to do so Tuesday.
“I care about the whole laundry list of progressive issues, from climate change to a more friendly and open attitude to immigration,” Mr. Boldt said. “He’s out of touch, and he needs to go,” she said. But, she quickly added, if Mr. Baugh did not make the November ballot, she would support Mr. Rohrabacher in the fall. “No question.”
In Lake Forest, Barry McLean, 74, a retired former Internal Revenue Service worker, said he had “no qualms” with Representative Mimi Walters, the Republican incumbent of the 45th Congressional District. “I tend to go with the political party I’ve always gone with,” he said.In Lake Forest, Barry McLean, 74, a retired former Internal Revenue Service worker, said he had “no qualms” with Representative Mimi Walters, the Republican incumbent of the 45th Congressional District. “I tend to go with the political party I’ve always gone with,” he said.
Christopher Smith, 63, retired editor at The Orange County Register, said he voted for Katie Porter, a Democrat, because he believes she is the one who can beat Ms. Walters.Christopher Smith, 63, retired editor at The Orange County Register, said he voted for Katie Porter, a Democrat, because he believes she is the one who can beat Ms. Walters.
“If you’re a Democrat in Orange County, I think the primary election involves tactical choices,” Mr. Smith said.“If you’re a Democrat in Orange County, I think the primary election involves tactical choices,” Mr. Smith said.
This year has broken records for the number of women running for office. Like many of them, Katie Hill is a first-time candidate. She is one of three female Democratic candidates running in the 25th Congressional District.This year has broken records for the number of women running for office. Like many of them, Katie Hill is a first-time candidate. She is one of three female Democratic candidates running in the 25th Congressional District.
But with an endorsement from Emily’s List, and a relatively substantial war chest, Ms. Hill, 30, a nonprofit executive, has emerged as a top contender in this traditionally Republican district where she grew up. (Take a look at how female candidates in notable races could fare on Tuesday.)But with an endorsement from Emily’s List, and a relatively substantial war chest, Ms. Hill, 30, a nonprofit executive, has emerged as a top contender in this traditionally Republican district where she grew up. (Take a look at how female candidates in notable races could fare on Tuesday.)
Vice News is filming a documentary about her campaign — a camera crew was present on Tuesday — making it feel a bit like the subject of a reality television show.Vice News is filming a documentary about her campaign — a camera crew was present on Tuesday — making it feel a bit like the subject of a reality television show.
In a brief interview, she said she felt “really good about today.” Up next on her agenda was writing her primary night speech. Was she writing two drafts, one for either possible outcome?In a brief interview, she said she felt “really good about today.” Up next on her agenda was writing her primary night speech. Was she writing two drafts, one for either possible outcome?
“I’m probably going to write one version,” she said “with a twist.”“I’m probably going to write one version,” she said “with a twist.”
At first, Anneliese Gelberg, 21, wanted to vote for Jess Phoenix, one of the other female Democratic candidates in the race. She was more inclined to vote for women, she said, and she liked Ms. Phoenix’s policies.At first, Anneliese Gelberg, 21, wanted to vote for Jess Phoenix, one of the other female Democratic candidates in the race. She was more inclined to vote for women, she said, and she liked Ms. Phoenix’s policies.
But she voted for Bryan Caforio, another Democrat, instead.But she voted for Bryan Caforio, another Democrat, instead.
“I knew that she didn’t have a lot of backing or support,” Ms. Gelberg said, and she wanted a Democrat she thought had a better chance of beating the Republican incumbent, Steve Knight.“I knew that she didn’t have a lot of backing or support,” Ms. Gelberg said, and she wanted a Democrat she thought had a better chance of beating the Republican incumbent, Steve Knight.
Others took a different tack.Others took a different tack.
“If it was a tie between a man and a woman, I would vote for a woman,” said Suzanne Breaw, 53, a self-described “liberal Republican” from Valencia.“If it was a tie between a man and a woman, I would vote for a woman,” said Suzanne Breaw, 53, a self-described “liberal Republican” from Valencia.
“We need to try new things,” said Diane Gregson, 62, of Lancaster. “The old boys’ school just doesn’t work anymore.” Ms. Gregson said she planned to vote for Ms. Hill.“We need to try new things,” said Diane Gregson, 62, of Lancaster. “The old boys’ school just doesn’t work anymore.” Ms. Gregson said she planned to vote for Ms. Hill.
Mike Levin, a Democratic candidate in the 49th Congressional District, chose to run, he said, in part because he heard so few politicians talking about the environment in 2016.Mike Levin, a Democratic candidate in the 49th Congressional District, chose to run, he said, in part because he heard so few politicians talking about the environment in 2016.
Last year, Mr. Levin, an environmental lawyer, drew attention over his appearance at a town hall event for the incumbent, Mr. Issa, in Oceanside, Calif., in which he described giving Mr. Issa a book on climate change.Last year, Mr. Levin, an environmental lawyer, drew attention over his appearance at a town hall event for the incumbent, Mr. Issa, in Oceanside, Calif., in which he described giving Mr. Issa a book on climate change.
“Why do you blindly support Donald Trump’s agenda to gut the E.P.A., to gut basic science?” he asked Mr. Issa at the time, as activists cheered him on. The dynamics of the race changed after Mr. Issa announced he would not seek re-election; now Mr. Levin, facing other Democrats, hopes to consolidate support to make it onto the general election ballot.“Why do you blindly support Donald Trump’s agenda to gut the E.P.A., to gut basic science?” he asked Mr. Issa at the time, as activists cheered him on. The dynamics of the race changed after Mr. Issa announced he would not seek re-election; now Mr. Levin, facing other Democrats, hopes to consolidate support to make it onto the general election ballot.
When asked what he would say to Mr. Trump if they were in a room together, Mr. Levin said he would give the president the same climate change book. “Mr. President, this issue is too important. Listen to Ivanka,” he imagined saying, invoking Mr. Trump’s oldest daughter, who urged her father to keep the United States in the Paris climate accord.When asked what he would say to Mr. Trump if they were in a room together, Mr. Levin said he would give the president the same climate change book. “Mr. President, this issue is too important. Listen to Ivanka,” he imagined saying, invoking Mr. Trump’s oldest daughter, who urged her father to keep the United States in the Paris climate accord.