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California Primary Election: Live Updates California Primary Election: Live Updates
(35 minutes later)
LOS ANGELES — This is a big Election Day in California, and the country is watching. Battles for House seats the Democrats are counting on in the midterms and for a new governor, where Republicans could be shut out, have swept across the state.LOS ANGELES — This is a big Election Day in California, and the country is watching. Battles for House seats the Democrats are counting on in the midterms and for a new governor, where Republicans could be shut out, have swept across the state.
All of this has been complicated by California’s unconventional election system: The top two finishers in Tuesday’s nonpartisan, open primary will face each other in November. And that is causing headaches for both parties.All of this has been complicated by California’s unconventional election system: The top two finishers in Tuesday’s nonpartisan, open primary will face each other in November. And that is causing headaches for both parties.
Here’s how to get up to speed:Here’s how to get up to speed:
• Polls close Tuesday at 8 p.m. Pacific time. California is a notoriously slow state when it comes to counting ballots, but we’ll have live results here.• Polls close Tuesday at 8 p.m. Pacific time. California is a notoriously slow state when it comes to counting ballots, but we’ll have live results here.
• Need a primer to understand the stakes of the California races? Start here. And here’s an explanation of how the state’s unusual primary system works.• Need a primer to understand the stakes of the California races? Start here. And here’s an explanation of how the state’s unusual primary system works.
• Seven Republican-held congressional districts voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Democrats have so many candidates competing for a finite number of voters in three of them that Republicans could end up capturing both top slots in each. Here’s a collection of charts that explore the data behind those key districts.• Seven Republican-held congressional districts voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Democrats have so many candidates competing for a finite number of voters in three of them that Republicans could end up capturing both top slots in each. Here’s a collection of charts that explore the data behind those key districts.
• Republicans face the possibility of not having a candidate in the race for governor, where Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom appears well positioned, and Senate, where Dianne Feinstein is running for a sixth term.• Republicans face the possibility of not having a candidate in the race for governor, where Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom appears well positioned, and Senate, where Dianne Feinstein is running for a sixth term.
• President Trump has endorsed one of the Republican candidates for governor, John Cox, which could give Mr. Cox enough votes to win the other slot. (“He will make a BIG difference!” the president tweeted on Tuesday.) Given how overwhelmingly Democratic the state is — and Mr. Cox’s ties to Mr. Trump — that outcome would no doubt result in many people declaring Mr. Newsom the presumptive next governor.• President Trump has endorsed one of the Republican candidates for governor, John Cox, which could give Mr. Cox enough votes to win the other slot. (“He will make a BIG difference!” the president tweeted on Tuesday.) Given how overwhelmingly Democratic the state is — and Mr. Cox’s ties to Mr. Trump — that outcome would no doubt result in many people declaring Mr. Newsom the presumptive next governor.
• But if Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat and former mayor of Los Angeles, wins that second spot, look out for a competitive, classic North-South battle.• But if Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat and former mayor of Los Angeles, wins that second spot, look out for a competitive, classic North-South battle.
• Mr. Trump weighed in on other races on Twitter, deriding the state as “High Tax, High Crime California” and urging voters to back “all of the great GOP candidates for Congress.” Beyond Mr. Cox, he specifically endorsed two Republican incumbents who have been key allies, Representatives Kevin McCarthy, the House majority leader, and Devin Nunes, known for his defense of Mr. Trump in the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.• Mr. Trump weighed in on other races on Twitter, deriding the state as “High Tax, High Crime California” and urging voters to back “all of the great GOP candidates for Congress.” Beyond Mr. Cox, he specifically endorsed two Republican incumbents who have been key allies, Representatives Kevin McCarthy, the House majority leader, and Devin Nunes, known for his defense of Mr. Trump in the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
• How will Latino voting power count in the primary? Here’s what we know. Will younger Asian-Americans help turn Orange County blue? Our reporter went home to find out.• How will Latino voting power count in the primary? Here’s what we know. Will younger Asian-Americans help turn Orange County blue? Our reporter went home to find out.
• Check out photographs from campaigns and primaries around the state, and of voters who told us about what message they hope the results will send.• Check out photographs from campaigns and primaries around the state, and of voters who told us about what message they hope the results will send.
• We have 30 journalists throughout the state. This week, many of them will be on the ground reporting from the most competitive congressional districts, including races in the Central Valley, Orange County and San Diego. We will bring you live updates throughout the day on Tuesday. Follow them here and on Twitter.• We have 30 journalists throughout the state. This week, many of them will be on the ground reporting from the most competitive congressional districts, including races in the Central Valley, Orange County and San Diego. We will bring you live updates throughout the day on Tuesday. Follow them here and on Twitter.
• Find your polling place through the secretary of state’s website• Find your polling place through the secretary of state’s website
• Seven other states are holding primaries on Tuesday: Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. Catch up with our rundown and check out the primary calendar for the rest of the year.• Seven other states are holding primaries on Tuesday: Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. Catch up with our rundown and check out the primary calendar for the rest of the year.
• This year has broken records for the number of women running for office. Take a look at how female candidates in notable races could fare on Tuesday.• This year has broken records for the number of women running for office. Take a look at how female candidates in notable races could fare on Tuesday.
• Get the latest news on the state in your inbox by signing up for California Today here.• Get the latest news on the state in your inbox by signing up for California Today here.
Tuesday is Election Day, which means Wednesday is — depending on the results — Blame Day. The big question: If Democrats get locked out of competitive Republican-held congressional races — a distinct possibility in three districts because of California’s nonpartisan top-two election system — who gets the blame?Tuesday is Election Day, which means Wednesday is — depending on the results — Blame Day. The big question: If Democrats get locked out of competitive Republican-held congressional races — a distinct possibility in three districts because of California’s nonpartisan top-two election system — who gets the blame?
Here are some nominees:Here are some nominees:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, for lurching from candidate to candidate in some of these districts (until the end), giving voters little help in navigating ballots swimming with the names of mostly unknown Democrats who want to go to Washington.The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, for lurching from candidate to candidate in some of these districts (until the end), giving voters little help in navigating ballots swimming with the names of mostly unknown Democrats who want to go to Washington.
The California Democratic Party, for failing to groom a bench of candidates for this moment — and for its largely unsuccessful efforts to clear the field.The California Democratic Party, for failing to groom a bench of candidates for this moment — and for its largely unsuccessful efforts to clear the field.
California’s nonpartisan top-two election system. This election reform may end up producing the worst-case scenario Democratic and Republican leaders warned about when it was passed by voters in 2010. With so many candidates jumping into the open primary, Democrats are fighting over a set number of voters.California’s nonpartisan top-two election system. This election reform may end up producing the worst-case scenario Democratic and Republican leaders warned about when it was passed by voters in 2010. With so many candidates jumping into the open primary, Democrats are fighting over a set number of voters.
From this point of view, there was little state or national Democrats could do. (And it is not just Democrats. Republicans could get locked out of the November ballot in the governor and Senate race.)From this point of view, there was little state or national Democrats could do. (And it is not just Democrats. Republicans could get locked out of the November ballot in the governor and Senate race.)
Voters, for not figuring out this somewhat overwhelming ballot. (But no. Rule of thumb in politics: Never blame the voters.)Voters, for not figuring out this somewhat overwhelming ballot. (But no. Rule of thumb in politics: Never blame the voters.)
— Adam Nagourney— Adam Nagourney
In the state’s nonpartisan top-two system, voters can cast a ballot for any candidate, regardless of party. Historically, that means these top-two primaries look a lot like the general election.In the state’s nonpartisan top-two system, voters can cast a ballot for any candidate, regardless of party. Historically, that means these top-two primaries look a lot like the general election.
Since 1990, the major party vote share in top-two congressional primaries in Washington State and California has differed from the general election result by an average of three percentage points, an Upshot analysis shows.Since 1990, the major party vote share in top-two congressional primaries in Washington State and California has differed from the general election result by an average of three percentage points, an Upshot analysis shows.
That means the California results will be about as good as any data we are going to get before November. The average House poll over the final three weeks of an election is off by an average margin of 6.2 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. The primary results are a bit like getting a free round of 52 final House polls in early June.That means the California results will be about as good as any data we are going to get before November. The average House poll over the final three weeks of an election is off by an average margin of 6.2 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. The primary results are a bit like getting a free round of 52 final House polls in early June.
The results are good enough that you can put stock in a surprise. In 2016, Darrell Issa’s seat was rated “Safely Republican” by the Cook Political Report heading into the primary. But he ended up claiming just 50.8 percent of the vote, the closest House election of the cycle.The results are good enough that you can put stock in a surprise. In 2016, Darrell Issa’s seat was rated “Safely Republican” by the Cook Political Report heading into the primary. But he ended up claiming just 50.8 percent of the vote, the closest House election of the cycle.
If this is a wave environment like in 2006 or 2010, which would probably make the Democrats slight to modest favorites to retake the House, it should not be too hard to tell. (Read more here.)If this is a wave environment like in 2006 or 2010, which would probably make the Democrats slight to modest favorites to retake the House, it should not be too hard to tell. (Read more here.)
— Nate Cohn— Nate Cohn
Democrats think they have the best chance to flip these districts, which Mrs. Clinton won in 2016. But it is an open question what the presidential result may mean for Democrats in the midterms. Check out more about these districts here.Democrats think they have the best chance to flip these districts, which Mrs. Clinton won in 2016. But it is an open question what the presidential result may mean for Democrats in the midterms. Check out more about these districts here.
Like many voters in Orange County, Tim Cain, 52, has been inundated with political messaging in recent weeks. He was bombarded with mail. His phone did not stop ringing.Like many voters in Orange County, Tim Cain, 52, has been inundated with political messaging in recent weeks. He was bombarded with mail. His phone did not stop ringing.
“I literally could not go through my work day without getting flooded with calls,” said Mr. Cain, a video game developer. “I basically said, my phone is no longer available.”“I literally could not go through my work day without getting flooded with calls,” said Mr. Cain, a video game developer. “I basically said, my phone is no longer available.”
But some combination of that barrage and his desire to support a Democrat drew him to a polling station at a Buick car dealership in Tustin on Tuesday morning in the 45th Congressional District.But some combination of that barrage and his desire to support a Democrat drew him to a polling station at a Buick car dealership in Tustin on Tuesday morning in the 45th Congressional District.
About 20 miles south, at Laguna Beach City Hall, Aggie Dougherty had to thumb through the sample ballot packet she carried with her to remember which Democrat she had chosen after more than a dozen candidates inundated the 48th Congressional District with campaign material.About 20 miles south, at Laguna Beach City Hall, Aggie Dougherty had to thumb through the sample ballot packet she carried with her to remember which Democrat she had chosen after more than a dozen candidates inundated the 48th Congressional District with campaign material.
Ms. Dougherty, a 67-year-old bookkeeper, read the fliers that landed in her mailbox, talked to friends, and listened to the news and advertisements. Then, she selected Harley Rouda, the candidate endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in an unusual move aimed at preventing Democrats from losing a spot on the November ballot by splitting the vote in the primary. This morning, she just needed to double-check.Ms. Dougherty, a 67-year-old bookkeeper, read the fliers that landed in her mailbox, talked to friends, and listened to the news and advertisements. Then, she selected Harley Rouda, the candidate endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in an unusual move aimed at preventing Democrats from losing a spot on the November ballot by splitting the vote in the primary. This morning, she just needed to double-check.
“Oh, right,” she said. “Harley.”“Oh, right,” she said. “Harley.”
On Monday afternoon, T.J. Cox, a Democratic candidate, visited with David and Dorothy Boldt, of D.E. Boldt Farms, at their ranch in the near-100-degree heat. Dorothy, a registered Republican, voted for Bernie Sanders for president in 2016, while her husband, David, a Democrat, said he held his nose and voted for Hillary Clinton. Both support Mr. Cox’s campaign.On Monday afternoon, T.J. Cox, a Democratic candidate, visited with David and Dorothy Boldt, of D.E. Boldt Farms, at their ranch in the near-100-degree heat. Dorothy, a registered Republican, voted for Bernie Sanders for president in 2016, while her husband, David, a Democrat, said he held his nose and voted for Hillary Clinton. Both support Mr. Cox’s campaign.
“I care about the whole laundry list of progressive issues, from climate change to a more friendly and open attitude to immigration,” Mr. Boldt said.“I care about the whole laundry list of progressive issues, from climate change to a more friendly and open attitude to immigration,” Mr. Boldt said.
Their son, Peter Boldt, 23, a registered Republican who also supports Mr. Cox, displayed an album of photos from their family’s farm, dating back five generations. As Mr. Cox sampled their plums, nectarines and peaches, David talked about how gentleness with the fruit is their specialty. Some of their produce is on shelves in Whole Foods; little stickers on the fruit have the farm’s name on them. “I get emails from Wall Street brokers saying ‘I bit into one of your plums!’” David said.Their son, Peter Boldt, 23, a registered Republican who also supports Mr. Cox, displayed an album of photos from their family’s farm, dating back five generations. As Mr. Cox sampled their plums, nectarines and peaches, David talked about how gentleness with the fruit is their specialty. Some of their produce is on shelves in Whole Foods; little stickers on the fruit have the farm’s name on them. “I get emails from Wall Street brokers saying ‘I bit into one of your plums!’” David said.
Mr. Cox peeled off a sticker and stuck it on his shirt like a campaign button.Mr. Cox peeled off a sticker and stuck it on his shirt like a campaign button.
“The guy is never here,” Ted Howze, a veterinarian and former ally, said of Representative Jeff Denham, Republican of the 10th Congressional District. “I ask people, ‘Name one thing he has done for the district.’ It’s a total lack of representation.”“The guy is never here,” Ted Howze, a veterinarian and former ally, said of Representative Jeff Denham, Republican of the 10th Congressional District. “I ask people, ‘Name one thing he has done for the district.’ It’s a total lack of representation.”
Mr. Howze represents the nightmare scenario for Democrats: the possibility that two Republicans could advance to November. Mr. Howze represents the nightmare scenario for Democrats: the possibility that two Republicans could advance to November. He calls himself “a bigger threat than anyone realized.”
On Monday evening he paraded around Tracy, a city on the western fringe of the district, in his white pickup truck with an American flag secured to the tow hitch. He calls himself “a bigger threat than anyone realized.” Arriving at his polling location in Lake Forest, Brian Forde, a Democratic candidate in the 45th Congressional District, said he hoped to benefit from growing Democratic support in Republican-leaning Orange County. For example, his parents, lifelong Republicans, voted for Mrs. Clinton in 2016, he said.
Mr. Howze says he sees a path to victory through the crowded Democratic pack there are six on the ballot, even though one already dropped out. “This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” Mr. Forde said. “If you’re going to win in this district, you’ve got to represent everyone in the district.”
“These guys are going to split the race so wide,” Mr. Howze said. “The Democrats have shot themselves in the foot.” Mr. Forde, who drives an electric Prius and supports California proposals to mandate all carbon-free electricity production by 2050, said he was concerned about the Trump administration’s moves to roll back efforts to curb emissions.
But even in the polling location where Mr. Forde voted, not everyone was looking for change.
Barry McLean, 74, a retired former Internal Revenue Service worker, said he had “ no qualms” the Republican incumbent, Representative Mimi Walters. “I tend to go with the political party I’ve always gone with,” he said.
Christopher Smith, 63, retired editor at the Orange County Register, said he voted for Katie Porter, a Democrat, because he believes she is the one who can beat Ms. Walters.
“If you’re a Democrat in Orange County, I think the primary election involves tactical choices,” Mr. Smith said.
Regina Bateson, one of four Democrats running to oust Representative Tom McClintock in the Fourth Congressional District, found herself the target of a number of negative campaign ads on Facebook throughout April and May. Some of them, she said, appeared as though they were news articles and failed to properly identify which organization had paid for them.Regina Bateson, one of four Democrats running to oust Representative Tom McClintock in the Fourth Congressional District, found herself the target of a number of negative campaign ads on Facebook throughout April and May. Some of them, she said, appeared as though they were news articles and failed to properly identify which organization had paid for them.
“It was a perfectly targeted negative campaign ad, but the average person had no idea who had really written it or what their motivations were,” Ms. Bateson said. “Here we are with people already voting by mail in the primaries, and we see serious problems” with Facebook’s system.
While Facebook announced new rules on April 6 mandating that campaign ads be clearly labeled and say who had bought them, the rules did not go into effect until late May, not long before the state’s primaries.While Facebook announced new rules on April 6 mandating that campaign ads be clearly labeled and say who had bought them, the rules did not go into effect until late May, not long before the state’s primaries.
Facebook has said that the process it put in place is a “solid step,” but in a call with reporters last month, executives acknowledged that there would be instances where they did not catch ads that should have been labeled political campaign ads. (Read more in our story.)Facebook has said that the process it put in place is a “solid step,” but in a call with reporters last month, executives acknowledged that there would be instances where they did not catch ads that should have been labeled political campaign ads. (Read more in our story.)
— Sheera Frankel— Sheera Frankel
Sit down with Mike Levin, a Democratic candidate in the 49th Congressional District, and the conversation will quickly turn to climate change. Mr. Levin, an environmental lawyer, chose to run for the seat, he said, in part because he heard so few politicians talking about the environment in 2016.Sit down with Mike Levin, a Democratic candidate in the 49th Congressional District, and the conversation will quickly turn to climate change. Mr. Levin, an environmental lawyer, chose to run for the seat, he said, in part because he heard so few politicians talking about the environment in 2016.
Last year, Mr. Levin drew attention over his appearance at a town hall event for the incumbent, Darrell Issa, in Oceanside, Calif., in which he described giving Mr. Issa a book on climate change.Last year, Mr. Levin drew attention over his appearance at a town hall event for the incumbent, Darrell Issa, in Oceanside, Calif., in which he described giving Mr. Issa a book on climate change.
“Why do you blindly support Donald Trump’s agenda to gut the E.P.A., to gut basic science?” he asked Mr. Issa at the time, as activists cheered him on. The dynamics of the race changed after Mr. Issa announced he would not seek re-election; now Mr. Levin, facing other Democrats, hopes to consolidate support to make it onto the general election ballot.“Why do you blindly support Donald Trump’s agenda to gut the E.P.A., to gut basic science?” he asked Mr. Issa at the time, as activists cheered him on. The dynamics of the race changed after Mr. Issa announced he would not seek re-election; now Mr. Levin, facing other Democrats, hopes to consolidate support to make it onto the general election ballot.
When asked what he would say to Mr. Trump if they were in a room together, Mr. Levin said he would give the president the same climate change book he gave Mr. Issa. “Mr. President, this issue is too important. Listen to Ivanka,” he imagined saying, invoking Mr. Trump’s oldest daughter, who urged her father to keep the United States in the Paris climate accord.When asked what he would say to Mr. Trump if they were in a room together, Mr. Levin said he would give the president the same climate change book he gave Mr. Issa. “Mr. President, this issue is too important. Listen to Ivanka,” he imagined saying, invoking Mr. Trump’s oldest daughter, who urged her father to keep the United States in the Paris climate accord.
For years, Scott Baugh spent the days right before Election Day canvassing for voters in the gated Huntington Beach community where he lives. But this was the first time Mr. Baugh, a Republican and former chairman of the county’s party, was asking for himself, not on behalf of others.For years, Scott Baugh spent the days right before Election Day canvassing for voters in the gated Huntington Beach community where he lives. But this was the first time Mr. Baugh, a Republican and former chairman of the county’s party, was asking for himself, not on behalf of others.
Now, Mr. Baugh is challenging Representative Dana Rohrabacher, who has not faced a viable opponent in the 48th Congressional District in recent memory. With more than a dozen candidates running, Democrats are anxious their votes will be too splintered, resulting in two Republicans advancing to the general election. And each time Mr. Baugh faced a voter, he almost immediately spoke about who he saw as responsible for attack ads, including mailers and television advertisements, targeting him.Now, Mr. Baugh is challenging Representative Dana Rohrabacher, who has not faced a viable opponent in the 48th Congressional District in recent memory. With more than a dozen candidates running, Democrats are anxious their votes will be too splintered, resulting in two Republicans advancing to the general election. And each time Mr. Baugh faced a voter, he almost immediately spoke about who he saw as responsible for attack ads, including mailers and television advertisements, targeting him.
“Those came from Nancy Pelosi, you know,” he would say, referring to the ads. (The ads were paid for by the House Majority PAC, a heavily financed Democratic group.) “She is so afraid of me making the next round, that she is trying to shut me out.”“Those came from Nancy Pelosi, you know,” he would say, referring to the ads. (The ads were paid for by the House Majority PAC, a heavily financed Democratic group.) “She is so afraid of me making the next round, that she is trying to shut me out.”
On Monday, voter after voter nodded somberly, appearing to agree with him.On Monday, voter after voter nodded somberly, appearing to agree with him.