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| Tax cuts for high-income earners defeated in Senate – politics live | Tax cuts for high-income earners defeated in Senate – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| We are well and truly in election mode. | |
| Labor have taken Malcolm Turnbull’s words, and well – let him say what they’d like, himself. | |
| You’ll find it here | |
| Given that whole sequence could have been confusing for folks watching on at home, let me snapshot where things are at now in the tax debate, and point forward to what is likely to come next. | |
| If you’ve been following on with Amy you’ll know that stage three (the tax cuts for the highest income earners) has been stripped out of the bill. | |
| I suspect that is the only amendment to the bill that will carry during the Senate debate, because two of the critical crossbenchers, Stirling Griff and Rex Patrick, are about to switch camps. | |
| Stirling and Rex just voted with Labor and the Greens and Tim Storer to knock out stage three, but they support stage two of the tax cuts. So now, they will start voting in the government column. When there is another vote later on to knock out stage two, there won’t be the numbers. | |
| So what’s my best guess about what happens next? | |
| Stage three will be the only casualty. We then move on the decisive vote: that the income tax bill as amended be agreed to. | |
| At that point, things get hard to follow, so bear with me. | |
| Even though Labor and the Greens just voted to strip out stage three, and have trousered that tactical victory, if these blocs do what they say they will do, then they will vote AGAINST the bill at that point. Labor will vote no because they oppose stage two. | |
| The Greens will vote no because they oppose the whole bill. | |
| So the government will have to line up the bulk of the crossbench voting with them in order to get the package lifted out of the Senate and back in the hands of the House. | |
| That looks most likely at this stage, given Pauline Hanson and her merry band (of one) just voted to keep stage three. | |
| On current indications, we could get Senate uplift of the amended package tonight. | |
| Once the package goes back to the House I suspect the House will decline to accept the amendments, then the game of chicken moves onto end game. | |
| The bill will come back to the Senate and Patrick and Griff will have to decide whether they dislike stage three sufficiently to vote the lot down, or whether they pass it through. | |
| Fun times. | |
| Earlier today, Pauline Hanson attacked the Greens after Sarah Hanson-Young accused her of voting to give herself “a massive big tax cut”. | |
| Hanson said she earned the same as Hanson-Young - and would not be getting any tax cut. | |
| But she appears to have misunderstood how the progressive tax cut system worked, as Hanson-Young pointed out shortly after: | |
| She either has no idea what on earth she is voting on, or she is lying to the Australian people and she is misleading the Senate,” she said. | |
| “Let’s crunch the numbers, let’s find out exactly how much Senator Hanson is going to get from this tax cut - $11,815 worth of a tax cut. That is how much Senator Pauline Hanson has just pocketed for herself, that is what she has just voted for. She has just voted to feather her own nest. | |
| “And she came in here and she lied to the Australian people. She lied to One Nation voters. She said she wasn’t getting a tax cut at all. | |
| “What a fraud.” | |
| Chris Bowen said Labor was still in discussions with Centre Alliance about how it will vote with stage two of the tax cuts, but thanked them for how they handled themselves so far, despite government “bullying”. | |
| As for the other votes: | As for the other votes: |
| Tim Storer only supports stage one. | Tim Storer only supports stage one. |
| Centre Alliance support stage one and two. | Centre Alliance support stage one and two. |
| So, on that presumption, Labor might not have the numbers to win any further debates. | So, on that presumption, Labor might not have the numbers to win any further debates. |
| But we wait and see, because this is the 45th parliament Senate and guessing what it will do next is like guessing when Beyoncé will drop new music. YOU NEVER KNOW. | But we wait and see, because this is the 45th parliament Senate and guessing what it will do next is like guessing when Beyoncé will drop new music. YOU NEVER KNOW. |
| The @ParlLibrary analysis of the Social Services Legislation Amendment (Maintaining Income Thresholds) Bill - by Lauren Cook - is now up. Bill freezes indexation of income test thresholds for family payments and parental leave pay, + FTB supplement rates https://t.co/S9stOpS0YI | The @ParlLibrary analysis of the Social Services Legislation Amendment (Maintaining Income Thresholds) Bill - by Lauren Cook - is now up. Bill freezes indexation of income test thresholds for family payments and parental leave pay, + FTB supplement rates https://t.co/S9stOpS0YI |
| And as we flagged earlier this morning – the tax debate will now go on hold until after 5pm, while the Senate deals with other business. | And as we flagged earlier this morning – the tax debate will now go on hold until after 5pm, while the Senate deals with other business. |
| Sadly 12.45 has brought an end to @MathiasCormann trolling @SenatorWong and vice versa. Tax debate back on ice for now as the chamber pushes on with daily business @AmyRemeikis #auspol | Sadly 12.45 has brought an end to @MathiasCormann trolling @SenatorWong and vice versa. Tax debate back on ice for now as the chamber pushes on with daily business @AmyRemeikis #auspol |
| As for how that vote played out: | As for how that vote played out: |
| On the government side, you had Fraser Anning, Cory Bernardi, Brian Burston, One Nation, Derryn Hinch and David Leyonhjelm. | On the government side, you had Fraser Anning, Cory Bernardi, Brian Burston, One Nation, Derryn Hinch and David Leyonhjelm. |
| On Team Amendment, you had Labor, the Greens, Tim Storer and Centre Alliance. | On Team Amendment, you had Labor, the Greens, Tim Storer and Centre Alliance. |
| (Four pairs were also given.) | (Four pairs were also given.) |
| Now because the vote was to proceed with stage three, the tie meant the question was negated – under Senate rules, it just defaults to negating the question. So the government lost its bid to move it forward. | Now because the vote was to proceed with stage three, the tie meant the question was negated – under Senate rules, it just defaults to negating the question. So the government lost its bid to move it forward. |
| It will go back to the House. The government will reject the Senate’s vote. And around-and-around the merry-go-round, we’ll go. | It will go back to the House. The government will reject the Senate’s vote. And around-and-around the merry-go-round, we’ll go. |
| And who said the Senate wasn’t fun! | And who said the Senate wasn’t fun! |
| tl;dr | tl;dr |
| So the first major chamber victory on the income tax package goes to the splitters faction @AmyRemeikis #auspol | So the first major chamber victory on the income tax package goes to the splitters faction @AmyRemeikis #auspol |
| But remember – this doesn’t mean it is dead, buried, cremated. It’s more the Tony Abbott version of that – it’ll go back to the House, where we know the government won’t accept it. | But remember – this doesn’t mean it is dead, buried, cremated. It’s more the Tony Abbott version of that – it’ll go back to the House, where we know the government won’t accept it. |
| So, as Murph tells me, it’s a tactical victory for Labor, but there is a ways to go in this fight. | So, as Murph tells me, it’s a tactical victory for Labor, but there is a ways to go in this fight. |
| So what just happened? | So what just happened? |
| Well, Scott Ryan brought it to a tied vote. And under the Senate rules, because it was a tied vote, the Senate has knocked out the third step, on the tied vote. | Well, Scott Ryan brought it to a tied vote. And under the Senate rules, because it was a tied vote, the Senate has knocked out the third step, on the tied vote. |
| So stage three of the tax plan, is gone. | So stage three of the tax plan, is gone. |
| The amendment was negated because of a tied vote. Because it was tied, that means the Senate has just voted to strip out stage 3 (despite the Coalition holding Hanson for that vote) #auspol @AmyRemeikis | The amendment was negated because of a tied vote. Because it was tied, that means the Senate has just voted to strip out stage 3 (despite the Coalition holding Hanson for that vote) #auspol @AmyRemeikis |
| So the deadlock has been broken – and its a tie. | So the deadlock has been broken – and its a tie. |
| The Senate president Scott Ryan voted on the floor with the government #auspol @AmyRemeikis | The Senate president Scott Ryan voted on the floor with the government #auspol @AmyRemeikis |
| The amendment was negated #auspol @AmyRemeikis | The amendment was negated #auspol @AmyRemeikis |
| The background to that – from Katharine Murphy | The background to that – from Katharine Murphy |
| The Senate is moving into the amendments stage of the income tax debate. The first amendment being moved by Labor is to split off the stage three tax cuts – the ones that benefit high income earners and start from 2024. | The Senate is moving into the amendments stage of the income tax debate. The first amendment being moved by Labor is to split off the stage three tax cuts – the ones that benefit high income earners and start from 2024. |
| Labor’s Senate leader Penny Wong quotes the South Australian cross bencher Tim Storer, saying these tax cuts are designed to “hold future parliaments to ransom”. She says they will impact the progressivity of the tax system. Wong says voters will have to elect Malcolm Turnbull twice more if they are ever to receive the benefits. | Labor’s Senate leader Penny Wong quotes the South Australian cross bencher Tim Storer, saying these tax cuts are designed to “hold future parliaments to ransom”. She says they will impact the progressivity of the tax system. Wong says voters will have to elect Malcolm Turnbull twice more if they are ever to receive the benefits. |
| The finance minister Mathias Cormann assures the Senate that’s not the case. No one has to re-elect Malcolm Turnbull twice more. The Senate can just legislate today and be done with it. | The finance minister Mathias Cormann assures the Senate that’s not the case. No one has to re-elect Malcolm Turnbull twice more. The Senate can just legislate today and be done with it. |
| The Greens are supporting this amendment. So are the two Centre Alliance senators. Pauline Hanson is currently shouting about the Greens. The Greens want to block tax cuts to support foreign aid and “open up the floodgates” to refugees, Hanson says, before veering into comparatively low power prices in the UK compared to prices here. | The Greens are supporting this amendment. So are the two Centre Alliance senators. Pauline Hanson is currently shouting about the Greens. The Greens want to block tax cuts to support foreign aid and “open up the floodgates” to refugees, Hanson says, before veering into comparatively low power prices in the UK compared to prices here. |
| Hanson doesn’t make her position clear on the amendment currently under consideration. | Hanson doesn’t make her position clear on the amendment currently under consideration. |
| The Senate is voting on the first Labor amendment – | The Senate is voting on the first Labor amendment – |
| The Senate is currently voting on an amendment to strip out stage 3 of the tax cuts. Labor, Greens, Centre Alliance & Tim Storer voting in favour. Hanson voting with the government to not split the bill #auspol @AmyRemeikis | The Senate is currently voting on an amendment to strip out stage 3 of the tax cuts. Labor, Greens, Centre Alliance & Tim Storer voting in favour. Hanson voting with the government to not split the bill #auspol @AmyRemeikis |
| Malcolm Turnbull will be making some comments on Refugee Week in the next few minutes. | Malcolm Turnbull will be making some comments on Refugee Week in the next few minutes. |
| Asked about her Monday night comments about the ABC, while on the ABC (where she said it was valid to be having the debate and told Tony Jones that 40% of his salary was probably coming from WA, which is the most WA thing to say, ever), Linda Reynolds told Sky News she has no regrets about kicking the debate down the road, while the government desperately tries to stuff it back in a box: | Asked about her Monday night comments about the ABC, while on the ABC (where she said it was valid to be having the debate and told Tony Jones that 40% of his salary was probably coming from WA, which is the most WA thing to say, ever), Linda Reynolds told Sky News she has no regrets about kicking the debate down the road, while the government desperately tries to stuff it back in a box: |
| “Not at all,” she said. | “Not at all,” she said. |
| “I don’t walk back from anything I said. I made it very clear up front that the government won’t be privatising the ABC, but what I did say is Australian taxpayers spend $1.2bn a year on the ABC and I get a lot of feedback from rural and regional Western Australia, that they would like to see more services from the ABC, because they don’t get the same access to the media markets that those of us living in capital cities do. | “I don’t walk back from anything I said. I made it very clear up front that the government won’t be privatising the ABC, but what I did say is Australian taxpayers spend $1.2bn a year on the ABC and I get a lot of feedback from rural and regional Western Australia, that they would like to see more services from the ABC, because they don’t get the same access to the media markets that those of us living in capital cities do. |
| “So it is absolutely a valid question to discuss where does that $1.2bn go. I think it should be more focused on rural and regional Australia and I have had a lot of support for that position since then. | “So it is absolutely a valid question to discuss where does that $1.2bn go. I think it should be more focused on rural and regional Australia and I have had a lot of support for that position since then. |
| “And it is taxpayer money. And every single dollar of taxpayer’s money is accountable.” | “And it is taxpayer money. And every single dollar of taxpayer’s money is accountable.” |
| Except, apparently, when governments or government ministers don’t want you to know how some money is being spent – like Michaelia Cash’s legal bills. You have to wait until estimates for that. And then maybe, not even then. | Except, apparently, when governments or government ministers don’t want you to know how some money is being spent – like Michaelia Cash’s legal bills. You have to wait until estimates for that. And then maybe, not even then. |