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Peter Dutton to contest Liberal leadership after Turnbull calls on spill – politics live Dutton resigns after Turnbull survives Liberal leadership spill 48-35 – politics live
(35 minutes later)
Not only is Peter Dutton on a margin of 1.6% - that’s about 3600 votes - he also attempted to move to the safe Queensland seat of McPherson in 2010 - but lost.
Karen Andrews holds that electorate.
That’s a reminder from a moderate, which suggests the fight is still, very much on.
All eyes are now on who is going to shift to the backbench with Peter Dutton.
The election speculation has started in earnest.
Yarralumla is just down the road.
You would think that the prime minister would try and get his cabinet in order first, but the main point to take from this, is that it is not over.
The leader of the Liberal party has lost the support of almost half his own party room. That’s not counting the Nationals who were already openly challenging his decisions.
And the moderates who supported Malcolm Turnbull have watched him roll over to that core group of conservatives time and time and time again, most critically, this week, on the energy policy he had said the government was absolutely committed to.
On the Queensland front – where most of Peter Dutton’s core support comes from – the speculation is that Dutton’s camp would include Amanda Stoker, Scott Buchholz, Ian Macdonald, Stuart Robert, Luke Howarth, Ted O’Brien, Bert van Manen and Ross Vasta.
That’s Queensland speculation, from conversations over the last couple of days.
Andrew Laming is an unknown. Jane Prentice, Steve Ciobo, Warren Entsch, Trevor Evans, James McGrath and Karen Andrews are thought to be in the Malcolm Turnbull camp.
This was just the Liberal party room. The Nationals sit separately.
If you add in the Nats who don’t support Malcolm Turnbull – and we know who at least a few of those are – and you have an absolute mess.
And then there is this number:
'Humbled' Malcolm Turnbull beats Kevin Andrews 48-35 in leadership spill https://t.co/ddVqtveOzy pic.twitter.com/ZM9kxdKuZa
To put those numbers in context: 48 to 35.
Julia Gillard won her first challenge from Kevin Rudd 71–31 (69.6%) – was defeated in the second.
Bob Hawke won his first ballot 66-44 (60.0%) – was defeated in the second.
Malcolm Fraser won his challenge from Andrew Peacock 54-27 (66.7%) – lost the election the following year
Sky News is reporting that Peter Dutton has resigned, which was inevitable.
He said it himself on 2GB last Thursday – that he would follow Westminster tradition.
He goes to the backbench, but he is now free to say whatever he wants, no longer bound by cabinet – which is the perfect place to announce a leadership platform.
The “conservative rebels”, as they have coined themselves, are:
Tony Abbott
Eric Abetz
Kevin Andrews
Andrew Hastie
That group has just managed to almost topple the prime minister.
The word that I (and most of the press gallery) is getting is that Peter Dutton is now expected to resign.
Will he be alone? Given there were only seven votes between them, I would say that is a statistical improbability.
What does this mean?
Well here’s the short version. In the space of 24 hours, Malcolm Turnbull has gone from complete capitulation to full frontal confrontation.
Turnbull called on the spill because he believed he had the numbers. He was right. He won 48 to 35.
But once you call these things on, you wear the results. Turnbull, and everyone in the government, now knows there are 35 people who no longer support his leadership of the Liberal party.
And the voters of Australia know their government is in the grip of a poisonous civil war.
Nola Marino:
“I have conducted a ballot with my whips. The result of that ballot was Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Liberal party 48 to 35.”
The deputy leader position was also spilled but Julie Bishop was the only nominee there.
“The process of the party room was as usual and the ballot was conducted as by precedence ... It is always orderly in our party room.”
Marino said Malcolm Turnbull “thanked his colleagues for their support” and will now be getting on with the job.
SUUUUUURRRRRRRRE
That number suggests that there are quite a few people who have switched sides from Malcolm Turnbull to Peter Dutton – which would suggest cabinet ministers have moved their loyalties as well.
Turnbull is facing a situation where almost half of his party does not believe he should be leader.
Expect a cabinet reshuffle – and another challenge in the near future.
Sky News is reporting that Malcolm Turnbull survived the challenge.Sky News is reporting that Malcolm Turnbull survived the challenge.
But those numbers suggest that close to half the party supports Peter Dutton.But those numbers suggest that close to half the party supports Peter Dutton.
That is not good news for Turnbull moving forward.That is not good news for Turnbull moving forward.
We would expect Dutton to step down from the Cabinet now. We would expect Dutton to step down from the cabinet now.
If Peter Dutton emerges as the winner of this contest, one thing is sure – Australia will be pulling out of the Paris agreement, which is going to create absolute chaos in our trade negotiations with the EU – as Steve Ciobo has already floated.If Peter Dutton emerges as the winner of this contest, one thing is sure – Australia will be pulling out of the Paris agreement, which is going to create absolute chaos in our trade negotiations with the EU – as Steve Ciobo has already floated.
Just a reminder that this time last week, Malcolm Turnbull was declaring victory in the party room over the Neg – calling a press conference to announce he had won the room over.Just a reminder that this time last week, Malcolm Turnbull was declaring victory in the party room over the Neg – calling a press conference to announce he had won the room over.
How time flies.How time flies.
The only reason you spill the leadership if you are PM is if you think you have the numbers. We'll find out shortly #auspol @AmyRemeikisThe only reason you spill the leadership if you are PM is if you think you have the numbers. We'll find out shortly #auspol @AmyRemeikis
It’s a full spill – Julie Bishop’s position has also been called on for a vote.It’s a full spill – Julie Bishop’s position has also been called on for a vote.
So that’s the whole leadership up for grabs.So that’s the whole leadership up for grabs.
Party whip Nola Marino will announce the results of ballot in the courtyard.
But the press gallery is now so used to this (we haven’t done a full term without a leadership change since 2007) the cameras are already in position.
Inside the party room, the challengers will deliver speeches.
Each will lay out their case – which is important in this case, because there are quite a few minds who are not made up as yet. Forty-three is the magic number here.
Those who are undecided are questioning whether Peter Dutton’s chances will be any better for the Coalition in Victoria and NSW – and there is still a question mark over WA.
That’s a lot of seats.
Malcolm Turnbull may have brought on the spill, but Peter Dutton has put up his hand to challenge.
There is a chance a new Liberal leader will be walking out of that party room.
Dutton’s supporters had wanted him to challenge, if they were sure of the numbers, later in the week. Parliament rises on Thursday until September, which gives a bit of space.
But Turnbull’s supporters have admitted defeat here – over not being able to stop the challenge. They are trying to flush it all out.
Malcolm Turnbull has called on the challenge to force his dissenters out.
It’s a way of attempting to take control of the situation.
Julia Gillard did this too – and then later, Kevin Rudd challenged.
Malcolm Turnbull has called the challenge on.
Just a refresher, for this to happen at the party room meeting, the motion must be moved, seconded, then voted on.
Then the leadership is declared vacant and it is on.
If there is one challenger, it is won, unopposed and the party room pretends to be united.
If there is more than one challenger, it is done in rounds until someone gets 43.
Christopher Pyne arrived whistling. It’s not his first time at this particular rodeo.
PM, Julie Bishop and Craig Laundy walk into partyroom together. Peter Dutton walks with Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. Scott Morrison enters partyroom alone. @7NewsSydney @sunriseon7 #auspol
Peter Dutton has been to see the PM, as this photograph I took just now shows. He said it was for a regular leadership meeting and would not answer the question about whether he had notified Turnbull there would be a leadership spill. pic.twitter.com/PE4ErExu2W
It is five minutes out from the party room meeting and the word is ...
No one knows.
We are yet to reach the point where Kevin Andrews puts his hand up, for the good of the party, but don’t rule it out happening, as a way of kick-starting this whole process.
Damian Drum made his views on Tony Abbott very clear this morning.
“He vowed he wouldn’t be a wrecker and that is what he is being, and he needs to get out,” he said.
Victorian MPs, even the Nats, aren’t overly enamoured of a Peter Dutton prime ministership, given what they think it would do to their own election chances.
Except for Kevin Andrews of course.