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Dutton resigns after Turnbull survives Liberal leadership spill 48-35 – politics live Dutton resigns after Turnbull survives Liberal leadership spill 48-35 – politics live
(35 minutes later)
Not only is Peter Dutton on a margin of 1.6% - that’s about 3600 votes - he also attempted to move to the safe Queensland seat of McPherson in 2010 - but lost. Labor have also held its party-room meeting – as have the Greens.
But not even they are pretending to be interested in anything other than what on earth the Libs are doing right now.
And just on that - Peter Dutton has legal advice that says he is fine.
But Katy Gallagher, Justine Keay and Josh Wilson also had legal advice saying they were fine.
Legal advice is not the high court.
“If he went to the high court, yes he would be in strife,” constitutional expert George Williams says, on the story broken by Hugh Riminton and researcher Kate Doak yesterday, over the conflict of interest Peter Dutton may have over his family’s child care centre interests.
The short version is, when the government changed how the child care subsidy was paid - from parents to the child care centre directly, Dutton’s wife’s child care centres, which are held in trust, may have become a section 44 blurred line.
That’s because that section also says you can’t receive a direct or indirect interest from the Commonwealth.
As professor Williams says on Sky, this high court has taken a very strict view of the constitution - black letter, as we like to say - which means Dutton could be in trouble.
BUT - the government would have to refer him, for this to even be tested. Which, at this point, they will not.
And as for the conspiracy theorists out there, this has not come from Labor or the government - Rimington and Doak have both said they started looking into this weeks ago, as part of an investigation into the business conflicts with section 44 - Riminton was also the journalist who looked into Barry O’Sullivan’s possible conflicts - which Professor Williams has backed.
But Williams says he doesn’t think that family trusts will protect MPs from the constitutional conflicts, given how the high court has been ruling.
Which brings a whole heap more MPs into the section 44 quagmire.
You guys have not lost your love for a leadership spill in the intervening three years (give or take a month) since the last one.
Twitter says there was a peak of 575 tweets per minute about #libspill #auspol pic.twitter.com/UooDLVO6mT
For those pointing out that given there are 84 Liberals, the room was one vote short – Arthur Sinodinos is still on sick leave. His vote most likely would have gone to Malcolm Turnbull.
On that 1.6% margin – 3,600 votes or so – Peter Dutton has been fundraising since the moment the election ended in 2016, on top of the fundraising he has been doing since 2013.
The LNP might not have a lot of funds, but Dutton has been building his own war chest since witnessing how close GetUp came to turfing him out at the last election, and working out how best to spend it.
See – movable beast
Peter Dutton is understood to be considering the offer from Malcolm Turnbull to stay as Home Affairs Minister and in Cabinet.
So, this is a very fast-moving beast today.
I am being told (and I note that Sky is getting the same intel) that Peter Dutton, in an attempt to “reach across the table” to the moderates (and this has very much been a moderate vs conservative battle within that “broad church”) may keep Tony Abbott out of the cabinet – and keep Australia in Paris.
It’s being billed as a “we can govern from the centre” push, as a way to get some of those other supporters across the line.
Given that I doubt that Abbott actually cares that much about energy policy – and is more concerned with getting Malcolm Turnbull out – he will probably be OK with that. Maybe. Who actually knows how that man thinks?
Labor is election ready – the campaign headquarters will be in Parramatta, I am told, and trial runs have already been completed. The teams have been in place since the beginning of the year, and those teams came together for “training” in the two weeks before parliament returned.
Everything is fine.
There are messages and despatches flying all over the place at the moment. The Daily Telegraph reported Malcolm Turnbull offered Peter Dutton the opportunity to stay on the frontbench as home affairs minister, but Dutts turned him down.
Goodness, I just realised we will no longer be getting our daily Dutton Dixer.
Not only is Peter Dutton on a margin of 1.6% – that’s about 3,600 votes – he also attempted to move to the safe Queensland seat of McPherson in 2010 but lost.
Karen Andrews holds that electorate.Karen Andrews holds that electorate.
That’s a reminder from a moderate, which suggests the fight is still, very much on. That’s a reminder from a moderate, which suggests the fight is still very much on.
All eyes are now on who is going to shift to the backbench with Peter Dutton.All eyes are now on who is going to shift to the backbench with Peter Dutton.
The election speculation has started in earnest.The election speculation has started in earnest.
Yarralumla is just down the road.Yarralumla is just down the road.
You would think that the prime minister would try and get his cabinet in order first, but the main point to take from this, is that it is not over.You would think that the prime minister would try and get his cabinet in order first, but the main point to take from this, is that it is not over.
The leader of the Liberal party has lost the support of almost half his own party room. That’s not counting the Nationals who were already openly challenging his decisions.The leader of the Liberal party has lost the support of almost half his own party room. That’s not counting the Nationals who were already openly challenging his decisions.
And the moderates who supported Malcolm Turnbull have watched him roll over to that core group of conservatives time and time and time again, most critically, this week, on the energy policy he had said the government was absolutely committed to.And the moderates who supported Malcolm Turnbull have watched him roll over to that core group of conservatives time and time and time again, most critically, this week, on the energy policy he had said the government was absolutely committed to.
On the Queensland front – where most of Peter Dutton’s core support comes from – the speculation is that Dutton’s camp would include Amanda Stoker, Scott Buchholz, Ian Macdonald, Stuart Robert, Luke Howarth, Ted O’Brien, Bert van Manen and Ross Vasta.On the Queensland front – where most of Peter Dutton’s core support comes from – the speculation is that Dutton’s camp would include Amanda Stoker, Scott Buchholz, Ian Macdonald, Stuart Robert, Luke Howarth, Ted O’Brien, Bert van Manen and Ross Vasta.
That’s Queensland speculation, from conversations over the last couple of days.That’s Queensland speculation, from conversations over the last couple of days.
Andrew Laming is an unknown. Jane Prentice, Steve Ciobo, Warren Entsch, Trevor Evans, James McGrath and Karen Andrews are thought to be in the Malcolm Turnbull camp.Andrew Laming is an unknown. Jane Prentice, Steve Ciobo, Warren Entsch, Trevor Evans, James McGrath and Karen Andrews are thought to be in the Malcolm Turnbull camp.
This was just the Liberal party room. The Nationals sit separately.This was just the Liberal party room. The Nationals sit separately.
If you add in the Nats who don’t support Malcolm Turnbull – and we know who at least a few of those are – and you have an absolute mess.If you add in the Nats who don’t support Malcolm Turnbull – and we know who at least a few of those are – and you have an absolute mess.
And then there is this number:And then there is this number:
'Humbled' Malcolm Turnbull beats Kevin Andrews 48-35 in leadership spill https://t.co/ddVqtveOzy pic.twitter.com/ZM9kxdKuZa'Humbled' Malcolm Turnbull beats Kevin Andrews 48-35 in leadership spill https://t.co/ddVqtveOzy pic.twitter.com/ZM9kxdKuZa
To put those numbers in context: 48 to 35.To put those numbers in context: 48 to 35.
Julia Gillard won her first challenge from Kevin Rudd 71–31 (69.6%) – was defeated in the second.Julia Gillard won her first challenge from Kevin Rudd 71–31 (69.6%) – was defeated in the second.
Bob Hawke won his first ballot 66-44 (60.0%) – was defeated in the second.Bob Hawke won his first ballot 66-44 (60.0%) – was defeated in the second.
Malcolm Fraser won his challenge from Andrew Peacock 54-27 (66.7%) – lost the election the following yearMalcolm Fraser won his challenge from Andrew Peacock 54-27 (66.7%) – lost the election the following year
Sky News is reporting that Peter Dutton has resigned, which was inevitable.
He said it himself on 2GB last Thursday – that he would follow Westminster tradition.
He goes to the backbench, but he is now free to say whatever he wants, no longer bound by cabinet – which is the perfect place to announce a leadership platform.
The “conservative rebels”, as they have coined themselves, are:
Tony Abbott
Eric Abetz
Kevin Andrews
Andrew Hastie
That group has just managed to almost topple the prime minister.
The word that I (and most of the press gallery) is getting is that Peter Dutton is now expected to resign.
Will he be alone? Given there were only seven votes between them, I would say that is a statistical improbability.
What does this mean?
Well here’s the short version. In the space of 24 hours, Malcolm Turnbull has gone from complete capitulation to full frontal confrontation.
Turnbull called on the spill because he believed he had the numbers. He was right. He won 48 to 35.
But once you call these things on, you wear the results. Turnbull, and everyone in the government, now knows there are 35 people who no longer support his leadership of the Liberal party.
And the voters of Australia know their government is in the grip of a poisonous civil war.
Nola Marino:
“I have conducted a ballot with my whips. The result of that ballot was Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Liberal party 48 to 35.”
The deputy leader position was also spilled but Julie Bishop was the only nominee there.
“The process of the party room was as usual and the ballot was conducted as by precedence ... It is always orderly in our party room.”
Marino said Malcolm Turnbull “thanked his colleagues for their support” and will now be getting on with the job.
SUUUUUURRRRRRRRE
That number suggests that there are quite a few people who have switched sides from Malcolm Turnbull to Peter Dutton – which would suggest cabinet ministers have moved their loyalties as well.
Turnbull is facing a situation where almost half of his party does not believe he should be leader.
Expect a cabinet reshuffle – and another challenge in the near future.
Sky News is reporting that Malcolm Turnbull survived the challenge.
But those numbers suggest that close to half the party supports Peter Dutton.
That is not good news for Turnbull moving forward.
We would expect Dutton to step down from the cabinet now.
If Peter Dutton emerges as the winner of this contest, one thing is sure – Australia will be pulling out of the Paris agreement, which is going to create absolute chaos in our trade negotiations with the EU – as Steve Ciobo has already floated.
Just a reminder that this time last week, Malcolm Turnbull was declaring victory in the party room over the Neg – calling a press conference to announce he had won the room over.
How time flies.
The only reason you spill the leadership if you are PM is if you think you have the numbers. We'll find out shortly #auspol @AmyRemeikis
It’s a full spill – Julie Bishop’s position has also been called on for a vote.
So that’s the whole leadership up for grabs.