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Iran, Russia and Turkey leaders to meet for crunch talks on Syria US says Syria preparing Idlib chemical attack as Turkey urges restraint
(about 3 hours later)
The presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey will meet in Tehran to discuss the war in Syria, which is likely to focus on a possible military offensive to retake the last large rebel enclave of Idlib. The US has said there is significant evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared by Syrian government forces in Idlib, as Russia, Iran and Turkey meet in Tehran for a crunch meeting to decide the fate of the region.
The summit between Hassan Rouhani, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Friday may determine whether diplomacy halts any military action. But each country has its own interests in the years-long conflict. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is pressing Russia to order the Syrian government to back off from an assault on the final large opposition enclave, saying it could lead to a bloodbath or mass influx of Syrian refugees into Turkey and perhaps elsewhere in Europe.
Iran wants to keep its foothold in the Mediterranean state neighbouring Israel and Lebanon. Turkey, which backed opposition forces against Bashar al-Assad, fears large numbers of refugees fleeing a military offensive and destabilising areas it holds in Syria. Russia wants to maintain its regional presence. Erdoğan is proposing a plan whereby rebel groups are given the chance to leave. He will meet Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani on Friday. Although the three leaders will also discuss plans for reconstruction, the return of refugees and the fate of Kurds in Syria, the focus will be on Russia’s determination to oversee a capture of Idlib by force.
“The Tehran summit can produce peace and reconciliation in Syria, or it can deepen the mess created by endless bouts of violence mainly instigated by the Assad regime,” İlnur Çevik, a senior adviser to Erdoğan, wrote in the Daily Sabah newspaper. The UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, is also urging Russia to hold off and to return to talks in Geneva that he has prepared for next week on a future constitution for Syria.
North-western Idlib province and the surrounding areas are home to about 3 million people – nearly half of them civilians displaced from other parts of Syria. That also includes an estimated 10,000 hardcore fighters, including al-Qaida-linked militants. The warning of evidence of an imminent chemical attack was made by the new US envoy for Syria, Jim Jeffrey. The US has repeatedly said it will not tolerate a chemical attack but has not said how it would respond.
For Russia and Iran, both allies of the Syrian government, retaking Idlib is crucial to completing what they see as a military victory in the civil war after Syrian troops recaptured nearly all other major towns and cities, largely defeating the rebellion against Assad. Jeffrey said: “I am very sure that we have very, very good grounds to be making these warnings. Any offensive is to us objectionable as a reckless escalation. There is lots of evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared.”
A bloody offensive that creates a massive wave of death and displacement, however, runs counter to their narrative that the situation in Syria is normalising, and could hurt Russia’s longer-term efforts to encourage the return of refugees and get western countries to invest in Syria’s postwar reconstruction. Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, has massed his army and allied forces on the frontlines in the north-west, and Russian planes have joined his bombardment of rebels there – the prelude to a possible assault.
The US adviser for Syria, Jim Jeffrey, on Thursday said there was “lots of evidence” chemical weapons were being prepared by Syrian government forces. The White House has warned that the US and its allies would respond “swiftly and vigorously” if government forces used chemical weapons in the widely expected offensive. Jeffrey said: “I think the last chapter of the Idlib story has not been written. The Turks are trying to find a way out. The Turks have shown a great deal of resistance to an attack.”
The streets of Tehran were quiet on Friday, the second day of the Iranian weekend. The country’s state-run IRNA news agency described the summit as potentially offering an “agreement on peace and security” in Syria. He said the US had repeatedly asked Russia whether Washington could “operate” in Idlib to eliminate the last holdouts of jihadist groups. Asked whether that would include US air strikes, Jeffrey said: “That would be one way.”
A former Iranian diplomat, Ali Akbar Farazi, told IRNA the summit shows that solving regional issues “in a fair way that agrees with the interests of all sides” remains important for the three countries. Turkey has established 12 observation posts around Idlib – an area of 6,000 sq km that is home to about 3 million people – as part of a de-escalation agreement it negotiated with Iran and Russia in the so-called Astana process. During the Tehran meeting Russia will seek to persuade Turkey to withdraw its troops.
For Turkey, the stakes could not be higher. The country hosts 3.5 million Syrian refugees and has closed its borders to newcomers. It has also created zones of control in northern Syria and has several hundred troops deployed at 12 observation posts in Idlib. Russia and Syria justify the proposed attack on the basis that a large number of jihadists fighters, mainly from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, operate in Idlib. HTS and its satellites are deemed a terrorist organisation by the UN and as such are not party to any ceasefire.
Turkey also does not want to see another Kurdish-controlled area rise along its border, as it already faces in northern Iraq. Large numbers of militants have been bussed to Idlib with the Syrian government’s permission following the collapse of previous rebel enclaves such as Homs, Aleppo and eastern Ghouta.
Çevik was forthright in his article in the Daily Sabah, saying: “Assad bolstered by Iran’s land assets and Russian air power and his use of chemical weapons has punched his way into opposition strongholds and hence massive gains for the Damascus regime. Some of these groups are openly hostile to Turkey, making the efforts of Erdoğan to persuade these groups to leave that much harder. The absence of an obvious destination further complicates the task. De Mistura has suggested up to 10,000 fighters sympathetic to HTS operate in Idlib.
“You still need moderate opposition groups who represent the Sunni suffering masses in Syria to achieve a viable political solution and durable peace in this country,” he wrote. “Iran and Russia are the fighting forces in Syria and have brought blood and tears.” Turkey is pleading with Russia to put the interests of millions of civilians ahead of a precipitous effort to drive out the militants, most of whom are integrated in the city. The so-called marbling effect, the blending of jihadists with civilians, has been a repeated problem in Syria.
On Thursday, the 10 elected members of the UN security council issued a joint statement calling for restraint, but a debate on the issue at the security council on Friday is likely only to air differences rather than provide a solution.
Olof Skoog, the UN permanent representative of Sweden, warned of a possible humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib.
The US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, has set a strict red line on Russian operations in Idlib, saying on Tuesday that if the Syrian government wanted to “continue to the route of taking over Syria, they can do that but they cannot do it with chemical weapons”.
Russia has built up its fleet in the Mediterranean to counter any possible US assault on the Syrian army.
SyriaSyria
Middle East and North AfricaMiddle East and North Africa
Recep Tayyip ErdoğanRecep Tayyip Erdoğan
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin
Hassan RouhaniHassan Rouhani
IranIran
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