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US warns of Idlib chemical attack as leaders meet on Syria in Tehran Syria: Idlib braces for assault as Russia and Iran dismiss ceasefire calls
(about 2 hours later)
The US has said there is significant evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared by Syrian government forces in Idlib, as Russia, Iran and Turkey meet in Tehran to decide the fate of the region. An all-out assault on the rebel enclave of Idlib in north-west Syria drew closer on Friday after Russia and Iran rejected a Turkish call to back a ceasefire. The move, at a stormy summit in Tehran, left the three countries to paper over their differences through a broadly worded joint statement calling for all sides to back a political settlement to end Syria’s civil war.
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is pressing Russia to order the Syrian regime to back off from an assault on the final large opposition enclave, saying it could lead to a bloodbath or mass influx of refugees into Turkey and perhaps elsewhere in Europe. The outcome of the summit led to western warnings that Russia was pushing Syria towards the edge of an abyss, while US officials claimed it had evidence that the Syrian government was preparing to use chemical weapons.
Erdoğan, who proposes a plan whereby rebel groups are given the chance to leave Idlib, is meeting Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani in the Iranian capital. Although the three leaders are also discussing plans for reconstruction, the return of refugees and the fate of Kurds in Syria, the focus is Russia’s determination to oversee a capture of Idlib by force. At a closing press conference, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani openly clashed with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Putin insisting that the removal of terrorists from Idlib was the No 1 priority.
“The illegal presence and interference of America in Syria which has led to the continuation of insecurity in that country, must end quickly,” Rouhani said at the beginning of the meeting. Erdoğan at the last minute urged his fellow leaders to include a ceasefire in the text of the final communique, but Putin said the armed opposition groups, including those designated terrorists, were not present at the talks, so no such commitment could be made.
The UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, is also urging Russia to hold off and to return to talks in Geneva that he has prepared for next week on a future constitution for Syria. It is unclear whether Russia will now order Syrian government forces to pause in face of Erdoğan’s resistance, and the growing western warnings of a humanitarian disaster if a full-scale military escalation goes ahead.
The warning of evidence of an imminent chemical attack was made by the new US envoy for Syria, Jim Jeffrey. The US has repeatedly said it will not tolerate a chemical attack but has not said how it would respond. The UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, urged Putin to allow more time for efforts to separate the UN-designated terrorists from the urban mass of the 3m population, saying this was feasible if Turkey was given time to mobilise the civilian population in Idlib to send a message to the fighters to evacuate the towns and villages. He held up candles to symbolise the wishes of the civilian population.
At the Tehran summit Erdoğan warned: “Any assault, whatever the reason for it, will inevitably lead to a catastrophe, killings and a major human tragedy. We never want to see Idlib to turn into a lake of blood. We have to find a rational way out in Idlib that could meet our security concerns.” He added that millions of refugees would flee towards Turkey if a major attack took place.
As many as 3.5m people live in the Idlib region, the final enclave holding out against the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. Almost half of the residents have been displaced from other towns captured by the Syrian government, such as Homs, Aleppo and Goutha, and have nowhere left to escape within Syria.
Erdoğan explained that his country had neither “the strength or capability” to host a fresh influx of refugees across its border, raising the prospect that refugees would head to Europe.
But Putin insisted that the UN-designated jihadist terrorists inside Idlib had to be removed, and implied that Turkey had already tried and failed to negotiate their voluntary removal, so separating them from the legitimate opposition. Putin said Russia found it “unacceptable” when civilians were used a pretext to “shield terrorists” and target Syrian government positions.
He added: “ We hope that representatives of terrorist organisations will have enough common sense to stop resistance and lay down their weapons.”
Putin’s rejection of a ceasefire was backed by Rouhani, who insisted that there could be no compromise. “It is necessary for the fight to continue until all terrorist groups in Syria, especially in Idlib, are eradicated.”
The Russian stance led to condemnation by western diplomats at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in New York. The US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Hayley, accused Russia of using the “playbook of death” and said any attack on Idlib would be a serious escalation. François Delattre, the French ambassador to the UN, warned that Syria “was at the edge of an abyss”, and said Russia would be held responsible if a massacre occurred.
The UK ambassador, Karen Pierce, said there were more babies than terrorists in Idlib, and named the Syrian forces preparing to attack the region, promising that they would be held accountable if indiscriminate attacks on civilians went ahead.
John Ging, the UN’s senior humanitarian official, said: “Idlib has the potential to create a humanitarian emergency on a scale not yet seen in this crisis.”
Turkey shares the Russian aim of removing the jihadists, mainly members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and would like them to hand their weapons over to the Free Syrian Army, but Russia claims the brutality and breadth of the terrorist groups means they dominate the 80% of the population that want peace.
HTS is designated by the UN as a terrorist group, and has been sending weaponised drones towards the Russian airbase. De Mistura has estimated that there are 10,000 UN-designated terrorists in the region. Russia puts the figure higher.
Turkish troops are stationed at 12 observation points inside Idlib, over an area of 6,000 sq miles, sent to the region as part of an earlier de-escalation agreement, and Turkey will now have to decide how to make sure they do not become collateral damage in the attack.
Earlier, the US said there was significant evidence that chemical weapons were being prepared by Syrian government forces. The warning was made by the new US envoy for Syria, Jim Jeffrey. The US has repeatedly said it would not tolerate a chemical attack, but has not said how it would respond.
Jeffrey said: “I am very sure that we have very, very good grounds to be making these warnings. Any offensive is to us objectionable as a reckless escalation. There is lots of evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared.”Jeffrey said: “I am very sure that we have very, very good grounds to be making these warnings. Any offensive is to us objectionable as a reckless escalation. There is lots of evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared.”
Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, has massed his army and allied forces on the frontlines in the north-west, and Russian planes have joined his bombardment of rebels there – the prelude to a possible assault. Separately, Russia has warned the US to move a small group of troops out of a base in southern Syria buffer, saying it intends to attack area including the At Tanf US air base due to the presence of militants. The Pentagon has ordered its troops to remain at the base.
Jeffrey said: “I think the last chapter of the Idlib story has not been written. The Turks are trying to find a way out. The Turks have shown a great deal of resistance to an attack.”
He said the US had repeatedly asked Russia whether Washington could “operate” in Idlib to eliminate the last holdouts of jihadist groups. Asked whether that would include US air strikes, Jeffrey said: “That would be one way.”
Turkey has established 12 observation posts around Idlib – an area of 6,000 sq km that is home to about 3 million people – as part of a de-escalation agreement it negotiated with Iran and Russia in the so-called Astana process. During the Tehran meeting Russia will seek to persuade Turkey to withdraw its troops.
Russia and Syria justify the proposed attack on the basis that a large number of jihadists fighters, mainly from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, operate in Idlib. HTS and its satellites are deemed a terrorist organisation by the UN and as such are not party to any ceasefire.
Large numbers of militants have been bussed to Idlib with the Syrian government’s permission following the collapse of previous rebel enclaves such as Homs, Aleppo and eastern Ghouta.
Some of these groups are openly hostile to Turkey, making the efforts of Erdoğan to persuade these groups to leave that much harder. The absence of an obvious destination further complicates the task. De Mistura has suggested up to 10,000 fighters sympathetic to HTS operate in Idlib.
Turkey is pleading with Russia to put the interests of millions of civilians ahead of a precipitous effort to drive out the militants, most of whom are integrated in the city. The so-called marbling effect, the blending of jihadists with civilians, has been a repeated problem in Syria.
On Thursday, the 10 elected members of the UN security council issued a joint statement calling for restraint, but a debate on the issue at the security council on Friday is likely only to air differences rather than provide a solution.
Olof Skoog, the UN permanent representative of Sweden, warned of a possible humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib.
The US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, has set a strict red line on Russian operations in Idlib, saying on Tuesday that if the Syrian government wanted to “continue to the route of taking over Syria, they can do that but they cannot do it with chemical weapons”.
Russia has built up its fleet in the Mediterranean to counter any possible US assault on the Syrian army.
SyriaSyria
Middle East and North AfricaMiddle East and North Africa
Recep Tayyip ErdoğanRecep Tayyip Erdoğan
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin
Hassan RouhaniHassan Rouhani
IranIran
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