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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/nov/02/donald-trump-china-trade-deal-us-employment-non-farm-payrolls-jobs-business
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| US economy smashes forecasts with 250,000 jobs added – as it happened | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| With the words of Donald Trump, we are closing for the week. | With the words of Donald Trump, we are closing for the week. |
| Thank you for following business live today. JJ | Thank you for following business live today. JJ |
| US president Donald Trump wasted little time in hailing the jobs report, encouraging Americans to back his party in the upcoming midterm elections. | US president Donald Trump wasted little time in hailing the jobs report, encouraging Americans to back his party in the upcoming midterm elections. |
| Wow! The U.S. added 250,000 Jobs in October - and this was despite the hurricanes. Unemployment at 3.7%. Wages UP! These are incredible numbers. Keep it going, Vote Republican! | Wow! The U.S. added 250,000 Jobs in October - and this was despite the hurricanes. Unemployment at 3.7%. Wages UP! These are incredible numbers. Keep it going, Vote Republican! |
| Stock prices traded in New York opened mostly higher on Friday after employment data showed a healthy addition of jobs in the US economy and the strongest wage growth in almost a decade. | Stock prices traded in New York opened mostly higher on Friday after employment data showed a healthy addition of jobs in the US economy and the strongest wage growth in almost a decade. |
| Apple falls as US markets open | Apple falls as US markets open |
| Dow Jones Industrial average gains 140 points, or 0.5%, at the open. | Dow Jones Industrial average gains 140 points, or 0.5%, at the open. |
| However, Apple shares fall by about 6% in early trading. | However, Apple shares fall by about 6% in early trading. |
| December rate hike plus three more in 2019, says ING | December rate hike plus three more in 2019, says ING |
| Unemployment in the US was last lower in 1969, said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. | Unemployment in the US was last lower in 1969, said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. |
| Payrolls growth has accelerated from an average of 182,000 per month in 2017 to 213,000 per month in 2018. The economy is booming and the bigger struggle for companies is actually finding labour to fill their vacancies. | Payrolls growth has accelerated from an average of 182,000 per month in 2017 to 213,000 per month in 2018. The economy is booming and the bigger struggle for companies is actually finding labour to fill their vacancies. |
| More reaction from economists to the data, with thoughts turning to the next rate-setting meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body. | More reaction from economists to the data, with thoughts turning to the next rate-setting meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body. |
| Josie Dent, an economist, Centre for Economics and Business Research, said: | Josie Dent, an economist, Centre for Economics and Business Research, said: |
| Today’s positive jobs data increase the likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise interest rates in the coming months from their current rate of between 2% and 2.25%. | Today’s positive jobs data increase the likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise interest rates in the coming months from their current rate of between 2% and 2.25%. |
| The central bank’s boss, Jerome Powell, has been relatively hawkish in his rhetoric recently, paving the way to higher rates over the course of 2019. However, market volatility will give the FOMC pause, she added. | The central bank’s boss, Jerome Powell, has been relatively hawkish in his rhetoric recently, paving the way to higher rates over the course of 2019. However, market volatility will give the FOMC pause, she added. |
| Despite the strong jobs market data, higher than expected Q3 GDP growth and bullish narrative from Powell, FOMC members will be cautious going into the meeting next week due to the considerable stock market corrections seen over the past month. | Despite the strong jobs market data, higher than expected Q3 GDP growth and bullish narrative from Powell, FOMC members will be cautious going into the meeting next week due to the considerable stock market corrections seen over the past month. |
| The pace of wage growth is good news for the US president, Donald Trump, writes the Guardian’s Dominic Rushe in New York. | The pace of wage growth is good news for the US president, Donald Trump, writes the Guardian’s Dominic Rushe in New York. |
| In September wages were 3.1% higher than they were a year ago – the first time since April 2009 that wage growth has topped 3%. Despite the record-breaking streak of jobs growth, wage rises have remained stubbornly since the end of the recession. | In September wages were 3.1% higher than they were a year ago – the first time since April 2009 that wage growth has topped 3%. Despite the record-breaking streak of jobs growth, wage rises have remained stubbornly since the end of the recession. |
| Americans go to the polls on 6 November, with both houses of Congress in play. | Americans go to the polls on 6 November, with both houses of Congress in play. |
| Hurricane effects? | Hurricane effects? |
| The bumper 250,000 gain followed a more modest 118,000 increase in September, but Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, cautions that hurricane disruption in September may be affecting the data. | The bumper 250,000 gain followed a more modest 118,000 increase in September, but Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, cautions that hurricane disruption in September may be affecting the data. |
| It’s possible that we could be in for another 200,000 plus number in November, as the remainder of those disruptions is reversed. | It’s possible that we could be in for another 200,000 plus number in November, as the remainder of those disruptions is reversed. |
| While the headline US unemployment figure did not tick lower, there is a clear downward trend across demographic groups – a factor in the Federal Reserve’s thinking. | While the headline US unemployment figure did not tick lower, there is a clear downward trend across demographic groups – a factor in the Federal Reserve’s thinking. |
| Unemployment Rate by Demographic Groups {@TheTerminal Chart Link: https://t.co/UbFRLk0Vh3 } pic.twitter.com/AHBlRmHzme | Unemployment Rate by Demographic Groups {@TheTerminal Chart Link: https://t.co/UbFRLk0Vh3 } pic.twitter.com/AHBlRmHzme |
| The key question for investors is whether wage growth will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster. | The key question for investors is whether wage growth will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster. |
| Kully Samra, vice president at Charles Schwab, said: | Kully Samra, vice president at Charles Schwab, said: |
| October’s data shows the labour market is tightening even further. Significant wage growth since last month, combined with high consumer confidence, underpins our belief that the US will see solid economic growth into next year. | October’s data shows the labour market is tightening even further. Significant wage growth since last month, combined with high consumer confidence, underpins our belief that the US will see solid economic growth into next year. |
| However, despite a growing economy, there are signs that volatility is returning. Companies, especially tech giants, are reporting mixed earnings and the market still expects ongoing trade wars to hit stocks further. The chance of a rate rise in December has slipped slightly, but concerns remain that too many interest rate hikes too soon could impact domestic growth as the cost of borrowing increases. | However, despite a growing economy, there are signs that volatility is returning. Companies, especially tech giants, are reporting mixed earnings and the market still expects ongoing trade wars to hit stocks further. The chance of a rate rise in December has slipped slightly, but concerns remain that too many interest rate hikes too soon could impact domestic growth as the cost of borrowing increases. |
| Inflation pressure building? | Inflation pressure building? |
| Wage growth came in at 3.1%, the first time it has topped 3% since 2009. | Wage growth came in at 3.1%, the first time it has topped 3% since 2009. |
| The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 250,000 jobs in October, far above consensus estimates of 190,000. | The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 250,000 jobs in October, far above consensus estimates of 190,000. |
| The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. | The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. |
| US non-farm payrolls are due shortly, at 12:30 GMT | US non-farm payrolls are due shortly, at 12:30 GMT |
| The US jobs gauge will be closely watched by economists and investors for signs of lower unemployment, which could spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a quicker pace. | The US jobs gauge will be closely watched by economists and investors for signs of lower unemployment, which could spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a quicker pace. |
| Reuters’ poll of forecasters shows that economists believe the US economy added 190,000 jobs in October. | Reuters’ poll of forecasters shows that economists believe the US economy added 190,000 jobs in October. |
| The unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 3.7%, although some economists believe it could fall to 3.6%. | The unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 3.7%, although some economists believe it could fall to 3.6%. |
| Cold water on today’s Trump bounce? | Cold water on today’s Trump bounce? |
| US president Donald Trump’s optimism on a trade deal with China at the end of the month may be overdone, according to CNBC’s Washington correspondent, Eamon Javers. | US president Donald Trump’s optimism on a trade deal with China at the end of the month may be overdone, according to CNBC’s Washington correspondent, Eamon Javers. |
| NEW: A senior administration official tells me that the report president Trump is ready to cut a trade deal with China is not true. “There is a long way to go” on negotiations, the official said. | NEW: A senior administration official tells me that the report president Trump is ready to cut a trade deal with China is not true. “There is a long way to go” on negotiations, the official said. |
| Remember, Trump’s Republican party has mid-term elections imminent. | Remember, Trump’s Republican party has mid-term elections imminent. |
| European markets remain well into positive territory, however. | European markets remain well into positive territory, however. |
| Two people stabbed at Sony Music’s London HQ | Two people stabbed at Sony Music’s London HQ |
| Two people are believed to have been stabbed in an incident at Sony Music’s London headquarters, with armed police on the scene. | Two people are believed to have been stabbed in an incident at Sony Music’s London headquarters, with armed police on the scene. |
| The incident at the High Street Kensington offices is ongoing. More details here. | The incident at the High Street Kensington offices is ongoing. More details here. |
| FTSE 100 hits three-week high | FTSE 100 hits three-week high |
| London’s blue-chip index hit its highest point since 10 October this morning, having gained just shy of 1%. | London’s blue-chip index hit its highest point since 10 October this morning, having gained just shy of 1%. |
| Approaching midday in London, Standard Chartered is leading the FTSE 100 risers, with shares up by 4.7%. | Approaching midday in London, Standard Chartered is leading the FTSE 100 risers, with shares up by 4.7%. |
| No danger of Italy leaving the EU says Juncker | No danger of Italy leaving the EU says Juncker |
| Amid the risk-on mood on European markets, it is worth remembering that significant political uncertainty is hanging over the EU in the form of the dispute between Italy and the European Commission. | Amid the risk-on mood on European markets, it is worth remembering that significant political uncertainty is hanging over the EU in the form of the dispute between Italy and the European Commission. |
| Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker today told Austrian radio station ORF that there is no danger of Italy leaving the euro. | Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker today told Austrian radio station ORF that there is no danger of Italy leaving the euro. |
| Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data from the Eurozone earlier showed the Italian sector contracted during October, amid a broader economic slowdown. | Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data from the Eurozone earlier showed the Italian sector contracted during October, amid a broader economic slowdown. |
| Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, described the PMI data as “grim” reading. | Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, described the PMI data as “grim” reading. |
| The alarming decline in in the Italian index is the stand-out detail to the downside, raising further downside risks for the economy amid an already stalling economy in Q3. An outright GDP contraction is now well within the realms of possibility in coming quarters. | The alarming decline in in the Italian index is the stand-out detail to the downside, raising further downside risks for the economy amid an already stalling economy in Q3. An outright GDP contraction is now well within the realms of possibility in coming quarters. |
| Apple concerns after earnings report | Apple concerns after earnings report |
| While stock markets on the whole are still enjoying positive momentum from the Trump’s optimism on trade with China, Apple is the unlikely outlier giving investors pause ahead of the open of US indices. | While stock markets on the whole are still enjoying positive momentum from the Trump’s optimism on trade with China, Apple is the unlikely outlier giving investors pause ahead of the open of US indices. |
| Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have downgraded their rating of the stock from “neutral” to “buy”, after Apple reported lower shipments of iPhones than expected. | Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have downgraded their rating of the stock from “neutral” to “buy”, after Apple reported lower shipments of iPhones than expected. |
| The firm will also stop disclosing unit shipments in future, a warning sign for analysts. | The firm will also stop disclosing unit shipments in future, a warning sign for analysts. |
| Jordan Chalfin, a technology analyst at US research house Creditsights, said the move will “make it harder to analyse operating trends, and we are disappointed with the reduced transparency.” | Jordan Chalfin, a technology analyst at US research house Creditsights, said the move will “make it harder to analyse operating trends, and we are disappointed with the reduced transparency.” |
| Apple shares fell by as much as 7% in after-hours trading, setting it up for a steep fall when the Nasdaq stock exchange opens in New York. | Apple shares fell by as much as 7% in after-hours trading, setting it up for a steep fall when the Nasdaq stock exchange opens in New York. |
| The last note to be launched was the plastic tenner featuring Jane Austen, the author. | The last note to be launched was the plastic tenner featuring Jane Austen, the author. |
| She was chosen after a public campaign to nominate a woman. | She was chosen after a public campaign to nominate a woman. |
| In money news of a different variety, the Bank of England today launched its campaign to nominate the new face of its £50 note. | In money news of a different variety, the Bank of England today launched its campaign to nominate the new face of its £50 note. |
| Governor Mark Carney wants a scientist (and a dead one at that) to grace the new notes, which will be the latest to get a plastic makeover. | Governor Mark Carney wants a scientist (and a dead one at that) to grace the new notes, which will be the latest to get a plastic makeover. |
| Computing pioneer Ada Lovelace is one possible contender, alongside Stephen Hawking and Nobel prize-winning chemist Dorothy Hodgkin, write the Guardian’s Patrick Collinson and Ian Sample. | Computing pioneer Ada Lovelace is one possible contender, alongside Stephen Hawking and Nobel prize-winning chemist Dorothy Hodgkin, write the Guardian’s Patrick Collinson and Ian Sample. |