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| Markets gain on Trump trade hopes as investors await US jobs data – business live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Two people stabbed at Sony Music’s London HQ | |
| Two people are believed to have been stabbed in an incident at Sony Music’s London headquarters, with armed police on the scene. | |
| The incident at the High Street Kensington offices is ongoing. More details here. | |
| FTSE 100 hits three-week high | |
| London’s blue-chip index hit its highest point since 10 October this morning, having gained just shy of 1%. | |
| Approaching midday in London, Standard Chartered is leading the FTSE 100 risers, with shares up by 4.7%. | |
| No danger of Italy leaving the EU says Juncker | No danger of Italy leaving the EU says Juncker |
| Amid the risk-on mood on European markets, it is worth remembering that significant political uncertainty is hanging over the EU in the form of the dispute between Italy and the European Commission. | Amid the risk-on mood on European markets, it is worth remembering that significant political uncertainty is hanging over the EU in the form of the dispute between Italy and the European Commission. |
| Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker today told Austrian radio station ORF that there is no danger of Italy leaving the euro. | Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker today told Austrian radio station ORF that there is no danger of Italy leaving the euro. |
| Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data from the Eurozone earlier showed the Italian sector contracted during October, amid a broader economic slowdown. | Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data from the Eurozone earlier showed the Italian sector contracted during October, amid a broader economic slowdown. |
| Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, described the PMI data as “grim” reading. | Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, described the PMI data as “grim” reading. |
| The alarming decline in in the Italian index is the stand-out detail to the downside, raising further downside risks for the economy amid an already stalling economy in Q3. An outright GDP contraction is now well within the realms of possibility in coming quarters. | The alarming decline in in the Italian index is the stand-out detail to the downside, raising further downside risks for the economy amid an already stalling economy in Q3. An outright GDP contraction is now well within the realms of possibility in coming quarters. |
| Apple concerns after earnings report | Apple concerns after earnings report |
| While stock markets on the whole are still enjoying positive momentum from the Trump’s optimism on trade with China, Apple is the unlikely outlier giving investors pause ahead of the open of US indices. | While stock markets on the whole are still enjoying positive momentum from the Trump’s optimism on trade with China, Apple is the unlikely outlier giving investors pause ahead of the open of US indices. |
| Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have downgraded their rating of the stock from “neutral” to “buy”, after Apple reported lower shipments of iPhones than expected. | Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have downgraded their rating of the stock from “neutral” to “buy”, after Apple reported lower shipments of iPhones than expected. |
| The firm will also stop disclosing unit shipments in future, a warning sign for analysts. | The firm will also stop disclosing unit shipments in future, a warning sign for analysts. |
| Jordan Chalfin, a technology analyst at US research house Creditsights, said the move will “make it harder to analyse operating trends, and we are disappointed with the reduced transparency.” | Jordan Chalfin, a technology analyst at US research house Creditsights, said the move will “make it harder to analyse operating trends, and we are disappointed with the reduced transparency.” |
| Apple shares fell by as much as 7% in after-hours trading, setting it up for a steep fall when the Nasdaq stock exchange opens in New York. | Apple shares fell by as much as 7% in after-hours trading, setting it up for a steep fall when the Nasdaq stock exchange opens in New York. |
| The last note to be launched was the plastic tenner featuring Jane Austen, the author. | The last note to be launched was the plastic tenner featuring Jane Austen, the author. |
| She was chosen after a public campaign to nominate a woman. | She was chosen after a public campaign to nominate a woman. |
| In money news of a different variety, the Bank of England today launched its campaign to nominate the new face of its £50 note. | In money news of a different variety, the Bank of England today launched its campaign to nominate the new face of its £50 note. |
| Governor Mark Carney wants a scientist (and a dead one at that) to grace the new notes, which will be the latest to get a plastic makeover. | Governor Mark Carney wants a scientist (and a dead one at that) to grace the new notes, which will be the latest to get a plastic makeover. |
| Computing pioneer Ada Lovelace is one possible contender, alongside Stephen Hawking and Nobel prize-winning chemist Dorothy Hodgkin, write the Guardian’s Patrick Collinson and Ian Sample. | Computing pioneer Ada Lovelace is one possible contender, alongside Stephen Hawking and Nobel prize-winning chemist Dorothy Hodgkin, write the Guardian’s Patrick Collinson and Ian Sample. |
| Midway through the morning, European indices are holding on to most of their early gains. | Midway through the morning, European indices are holding on to most of their early gains. |
| Crossrail chief executive to leave | Crossrail chief executive to leave |
| Simon Wright, the chief executive of Crossrail, will be replaced by the head of the London Underground following the government’s £350m bailout of the struggling project. | Simon Wright, the chief executive of Crossrail, will be replaced by the head of the London Underground following the government’s £350m bailout of the struggling project. |
| The giant Crossrail project, officially known as the Elizabeth line, has been plagued by delays, meaning it will miss its scheduled opening in December by almost a year. | The giant Crossrail project, officially known as the Elizabeth line, has been plagued by delays, meaning it will miss its scheduled opening in December by almost a year. |
| Wright has only been in the role since March, after Andrew Wolstenholme stepped down. Crossrail initially said Wright would “see out the remaining phase of our work through to the handover of completed assets to Transport for London”. | Wright has only been in the role since March, after Andrew Wolstenholme stepped down. Crossrail initially said Wright would “see out the remaining phase of our work through to the handover of completed assets to Transport for London”. |
| Transport for London and Crossrail have announced that Mark Wild will become chief executive, starting on Monday 19 November. | Transport for London and Crossrail have announced that Mark Wild will become chief executive, starting on Monday 19 November. |
| Wild is currently managing director of London Underground. He will return to the role once the Elizabeth line has opened through the central London stretch. | Wild is currently managing director of London Underground. He will return to the role once the Elizabeth line has opened through the central London stretch. |
| The construction PMI reading remains “above the magic 50 mark” – indicating a continued expansion in output – says Max Jones, global corporates relationship director for infrastructure and construction at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking. | The construction PMI reading remains “above the magic 50 mark” – indicating a continued expansion in output – says Max Jones, global corporates relationship director for infrastructure and construction at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking. |
| The October reading was “fairly modest”, he said, “neither racing ahead nor stuck in the doldrums”. | The October reading was “fairly modest”, he said, “neither racing ahead nor stuck in the doldrums”. |
| The commercial segment appears to be being sustained by urban-focused developers responding to the still-buoyant growth of many regional cities, while the UK’s insatiable appetite for online shopping is driving the construction of distribution space in and around key transport hubs. | The commercial segment appears to be being sustained by urban-focused developers responding to the still-buoyant growth of many regional cities, while the UK’s insatiable appetite for online shopping is driving the construction of distribution space in and around key transport hubs. |
| However, the possibility of Brexit disruption still looms, and the big construction firms who make up the survey (and the majority of UK building work) are also going to have to adapt to the end of the private finance initiative, after chancellor Philip Hammond announced its end at the budget on Monday. | However, the possibility of Brexit disruption still looms, and the big construction firms who make up the survey (and the majority of UK building work) are also going to have to adapt to the end of the private finance initiative, after chancellor Philip Hammond announced its end at the budget on Monday. |
| The current output figures look fairly solid for the construction industry – at least in comparison to the last two years – with the second-strongest expansion in the last 16 months. | The current output figures look fairly solid for the construction industry – at least in comparison to the last two years – with the second-strongest expansion in the last 16 months. |
| Civil engineering – big infrastructure projects like roads and railways – was the biggest driver of the output increase, after weakness earlier in the year, IHS Markit said. | Civil engineering – big infrastructure projects like roads and railways – was the biggest driver of the output increase, after weakness earlier in the year, IHS Markit said. |
| But the forward-looking indicators “paint a less rosy picture for the sector”, said Trevor Balchin, the firm’s economics director. | But the forward-looking indicators “paint a less rosy picture for the sector”, said Trevor Balchin, the firm’s economics director. |
| New contracts increased at only a modest pace, and firms were the least optimistic regarding the 12-month outlook for nearly six years. Construction companies again linked uncertainty to Brexit negotiations, which influenced delays to final decisions at clients. | New contracts increased at only a modest pace, and firms were the least optimistic regarding the 12-month outlook for nearly six years. Construction companies again linked uncertainty to Brexit negotiations, which influenced delays to final decisions at clients. |
| Breaking: UK construction output rises but outlook weak | Breaking: UK construction output rises but outlook weak |
| The construction purchasing managers index (PMI), which is closely followed by economists, rose from a six-month low in September to a reading of 53.2 points for October, according to data firm IHS Markit. | The construction purchasing managers index (PMI), which is closely followed by economists, rose from a six-month low in September to a reading of 53.2 points for October, according to data firm IHS Markit. |
| However, the index measuring business expectations fell to its weakest since December 2012. | However, the index measuring business expectations fell to its weakest since December 2012. |
| Sterling is on course for its second best week of the year so far in the wake of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate decision. | Sterling is on course for its second best week of the year so far in the wake of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate decision. |
| The pound had its best day of 2018 so far on Thursday thanks to a combination of positive reports on Brexit talks and a relatively sanguine Bank of England. | The pound had its best day of 2018 so far on Thursday thanks to a combination of positive reports on Brexit talks and a relatively sanguine Bank of England. |
| Against the US dollar sterling edged up by around 0.2% this morning, hitting its highest since 23 October at $1.3037. Against the euro sterling was flat. | Against the US dollar sterling edged up by around 0.2% this morning, hitting its highest since 23 October at $1.3037. Against the euro sterling was flat. |
| The new optimism on Brexit followed a Times report that a deal on financial services trade between the UK and the EU had been agreed, although the reports were swiftly downplayed by the government. | The new optimism on Brexit followed a Times report that a deal on financial services trade between the UK and the EU had been agreed, although the reports were swiftly downplayed by the government. |
| Some City economists think the Bank of England, meanwhile, is laying the groundwork for further rate hikes next year, provided there is a smooth Brexit transition. | Some City economists think the Bank of England, meanwhile, is laying the groundwork for further rate hikes next year, provided there is a smooth Brexit transition. |
| MUFG’s Derek Halpenny, European head of global markets research, and Fritz Louw, currency analyst, wrote: | MUFG’s Derek Halpenny, European head of global markets research, and Fritz Louw, currency analyst, wrote: |
| Given [signs of wage growth] and resilient household confidence and momentum, the BoE maintained that gradual rate hikes were appropriate but that they could quicken the pace of hikes in the event of an orderly Brexit. | Given [signs of wage growth] and resilient household confidence and momentum, the BoE maintained that gradual rate hikes were appropriate but that they could quicken the pace of hikes in the event of an orderly Brexit. |
| Bank deputy governor Ben Broadbent, Mark Carney’s number two, did not reveal much further about the central bank’s plans in an interview on the BBC’s Today programme this morning. He reiterated the Bank’s line that faster wage growth is coming, while saying that the European outlook may be less negative than recent weak GDP data might suggest. | Bank deputy governor Ben Broadbent, Mark Carney’s number two, did not reveal much further about the central bank’s plans in an interview on the BBC’s Today programme this morning. He reiterated the Bank’s line that faster wage growth is coming, while saying that the European outlook may be less negative than recent weak GDP data might suggest. |
| US president Donald Trump’s Twitter feed has set the tone for early trading. | US president Donald Trump’s Twitter feed has set the tone for early trading. |
| He said his “long and very good conversation” with Chinese president Xi Jinping last night had “a heavy emphasis on Trade”, with a capital T. | He said his “long and very good conversation” with Chinese president Xi Jinping last night had “a heavy emphasis on Trade”, with a capital T. |
| Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, said Trump wants to reach a trade agreement with China at the G20 meeting in Argentina, scheduled for the end of November. He has asked officials to start drafting possible terms, the report said. | Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, said Trump wants to reach a trade agreement with China at the G20 meeting in Argentina, scheduled for the end of November. He has asked officials to start drafting possible terms, the report said. |
| Markets across Europe appear to have welcomed the news, with synchronised index rises. The Stoxx Europe 600, which tracks the biggest firms (including London’s FTSE 100), rose by 1%. | Markets across Europe appear to have welcomed the news, with synchronised index rises. The Stoxx Europe 600, which tracks the biggest firms (including London’s FTSE 100), rose by 1%. |
| However, the economists are doing their job and playing Cassandra. | However, the economists are doing their job and playing Cassandra. |
| Paul Donovan, global chief economist at UBS Wealth Management, said: | Paul Donovan, global chief economist at UBS Wealth Management, said: |
| Before breaking out the beautiful chocolate cake, it is worth remembering that China would also have to agree, and has the capacity to hold out against current sanctions. | Before breaking out the beautiful chocolate cake, it is worth remembering that China would also have to agree, and has the capacity to hold out against current sanctions. |
| The US has also been sending somewhat mixed messages, with the US Department of Justice accusing a Chinese state-owned firm of stealing semiconductor trade secrets. | The US has also been sending somewhat mixed messages, with the US Department of Justice accusing a Chinese state-owned firm of stealing semiconductor trade secrets. |
| Trump has told rallies he wants the “right” deal with China. As Sue Trinh, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote: “It all comes down to your definition of ‘right’.” | Trump has told rallies he wants the “right” deal with China. As Sue Trinh, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote: “It all comes down to your definition of ‘right’.” |
| Note his comments came as the US Justice Department is stepping up actions against China in cases of suspected economic espionage and as trade dove [Larry] Kudlow cautioned that Trump would “aggressively” pursue his agenda against China. | Note his comments came as the US Justice Department is stepping up actions against China in cases of suspected economic espionage and as trade dove [Larry] Kudlow cautioned that Trump would “aggressively” pursue his agenda against China. |
| It’s worth taking a look at just how much Asia’s stock exchanges gained overnight. | It’s worth taking a look at just how much Asia’s stock exchanges gained overnight. |
| A thawing in the relationship between the US and China could give investors a reason to get back into Asian equities after a punishing year – the Hang Seng is still down by 11% in the year to date. | A thawing in the relationship between the US and China could give investors a reason to get back into Asian equities after a punishing year – the Hang Seng is still down by 11% in the year to date. |
| Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia Pacific at JP Morgan Asset Management, said: | Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia Pacific at JP Morgan Asset Management, said: |
| While we are still cautious over a full resolution of recent tensions in the medium term, resumption of dialogue between Washington and Beijing would be good enough to investors for now. | While we are still cautious over a full resolution of recent tensions in the medium term, resumption of dialogue between Washington and Beijing would be good enough to investors for now. |
| Combined with the prospects of more economic stimulus from China and reasonable valuations in Asian equities, investors could use this opportunity to reload on emerging market and Asia assets. The US dollar is still edging higher but Asia has been more resilient on handling greenback strength than other emerging markets. | Combined with the prospects of more economic stimulus from China and reasonable valuations in Asian equities, investors could use this opportunity to reload on emerging market and Asia assets. The US dollar is still edging higher but Asia has been more resilient on handling greenback strength than other emerging markets. |
| The FTSE 100 has taken its cue from Asian trading at the open, bouncing by more than 1% in its first few minutes before retreating to a 0.8% gain. | The FTSE 100 has taken its cue from Asian trading at the open, bouncing by more than 1% in its first few minutes before retreating to a 0.8% gain. |
| The positive sentiment is spreading across Europe, with Italian shares up by 1.2%. Investors in Sweden, Poland and even Russia are having a good time. | The positive sentiment is spreading across Europe, with Italian shares up by 1.2%. Investors in Sweden, Poland and even Russia are having a good time. |
| The agenda: Donald Trump trade deal hint | The agenda: Donald Trump trade deal hint |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| US president Donald Trump has already fired up stock markets this morning after showing optimism on the trade relationship with China. | US president Donald Trump has already fired up stock markets this morning after showing optimism on the trade relationship with China. |
| Trump spoke to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, appearing to give hope of progress at the G20 meetings at the end of this month. | Trump spoke to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, appearing to give hope of progress at the G20 meetings at the end of this month. |
| Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea! | Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea! |
| Asian markets have risen across the board. The CSI 300 index, which tracks stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose by 3.56%, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 3.79%. | Asian markets have risen across the board. The CSI 300 index, which tracks stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose by 3.56%, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 3.79%. |
| However, investors are not quite popping the champagne corks just yet. | However, investors are not quite popping the champagne corks just yet. |
| Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING, said: | Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING, said: |
| I’m not entirely sure what to make of this. But it feels too big a change of direction following the [vice president] Mike Pence speech some weeks ago to be taken literally. It certainly isn’t in synch with the latest charge of a Chinese company for conspiring to steal trade secrets. | I’m not entirely sure what to make of this. But it feels too big a change of direction following the [vice president] Mike Pence speech some weeks ago to be taken literally. It certainly isn’t in synch with the latest charge of a Chinese company for conspiring to steal trade secrets. |
| Whether Trump has set the tone for the day will in large part depend on the outturn of US employment data, which is closely scrutinised by traders across the world for signs of inflationary pressure in the American economy. | Whether Trump has set the tone for the day will in large part depend on the outturn of US employment data, which is closely scrutinised by traders across the world for signs of inflationary pressure in the American economy. |
| The non-farm payrolls will be published at 12:30pm, with average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate the key data. | The non-farm payrolls will be published at 12:30pm, with average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate the key data. |
| In the UK the Bank of England’s top officials are busy doing the media rounds to explain why they held back from raising interest rates – and warned they could go both ways in the event of a “no deal” Brexit. | In the UK the Bank of England’s top officials are busy doing the media rounds to explain why they held back from raising interest rates – and warned they could go both ways in the event of a “no deal” Brexit. |
| Bank deputy governor Ben Broadbent today told the BBC that faster wage growth will help real household incomes – a welcome sign for Britons after one of the worst decades for wage growth in the last century. | Bank deputy governor Ben Broadbent today told the BBC that faster wage growth will help real household incomes – a welcome sign for Britons after one of the worst decades for wage growth in the last century. |
| In Europe, meanwhile, investors will be eagerly awaiting the results of the European Banking Authority’s latest stress tests of the banking sector, to be published at 5pm in London, where the watchdog is based (for now). | In Europe, meanwhile, investors will be eagerly awaiting the results of the European Banking Authority’s latest stress tests of the banking sector, to be published at 5pm in London, where the watchdog is based (for now). |
| Some 48 banks have been put under the microscope, with the regulator looking at how risky the assets held by the lenders are – and how they would withstand a shock. | Some 48 banks have been put under the microscope, with the regulator looking at how risky the assets held by the lenders are – and how they would withstand a shock. |
| Italian banks’ results will be particularly scrutinised amid political uncertainty over the prospects for the country’s public finances. | Italian banks’ results will be particularly scrutinised amid political uncertainty over the prospects for the country’s public finances. |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| •9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing report for October | •9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing report for October |
| •9:30am GMT: UK construction report for October | •9:30am GMT: UK construction report for October |
| •12:30pm GMT: US employment data for October | •12:30pm GMT: US employment data for October |
| •5pm GMT: European Banking Authority stress tests | •5pm GMT: European Banking Authority stress tests |