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Brexit deal: Tory ministers meet to decide fate of agreement – Politics live Brexit deal: Tory ministers meet to decide fate of agreement – Politics live
(35 minutes later)
One of the most significant revelations in the papers today is in the Times splash (paywall), which quotes a very senior EU official saying the EU would “retain all the controls” after Brexit under the plan negotiated in Brussels. The paper says:
In a further concession Mrs May has agreed to “level playing field” measures tying Britain to EU rules in areas such as state aid and environmental and workers’ rights protections during the backstop.
Sabine Weyand, the deputy to Michel Barnier, Europe’s chief negotiator, told European ambassadors that this concession would be used as the basis of the future relationship with the EU. She also said that Britain “would have to swallow a link between access to products and fisheries in future agreements”, in a leaked note of the meeting on Friday.
“We should be in the best negotiation position for the future relationship. This requires the customs union as the basis of the future relationship,” Ms Weyand said. “They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls. They apply the same rules. UK wants a lot more from future relationship, so EU retains its leverage.”
The briefing underlines fears among Brexiteers that the temporary customs union during the backstop will become the long-term basis for the relationship with the EU, prohibiting new trade deals and forcing the government to adopt all new EU rules and regulations regardless of whether they are in Britain’s interest.
Asked about this in his Today interview, William Hague dismissed the revelation. He said people should wait to see what is in the agreement, instead of worrying about leaks from “somebody you’ve never heard of before”.
Hague might regret being so glib. Anyone who has followed the negotiation closely knows exactly who Weyand is, and the last time he claimed not to have heard of someone on the Today programme, he was referring to Arron Banks, who was then a former Tory voter who had decided to give £100,000 to Ukip. Banks was so angry about the insult that he upped his donation to £1m.
The Remain-supporting Tory MP Anna Soubry repeated her backing for a second referendum, but she stopped short of saying she would reject the current deal in parliament.
She told Today: “I have always said that the prime minister could deliver on the referendum by us leaving the European Union but in effect remaining in the old common market, the single market, and a customs union. So how near that is going to be to this deal obviously remains to be seen.”
She added: “Things have changed so much and people, including myself, have learnt so much more about all of this, I think it is right that whatever the deal is, and that it includes if parliament can’t pass or won’t pass the prime minister’s deal, that it goes back to the British people.
“The best deal that we have with the European Union is the deal that we currently have with European Union. I think there are a lot of people who as they have seen Brexit unfold, they have looked at the reality of it, are now understanding and realising that the truth is that our country has made a terrible mistake. And we should have the right to revisit the decision that we made over two and a half years ago.
“We are a member of the European Union, we have not left ... If we leave we will never get the same terms that we have now.”
Hague says, if he were still in cabinet, he would advise colleagues to look at “the big picture”. If you want to maintain trade with the EU, and keep the UK together, then a deal is going to look pretty much like this one, he says.
And he says, if the cabinet does not stick together, there is no attractive alternative government available to the country.
Q: As Tory leader you said you wanted to be in Europe but not run by it. Isn’t this the opposite?
Hague says, under this deal, the UK would be able to have control of its own immigration policy. It would also stop paying into the EU’s budget, and leave the common agricultural policy and the common fisheries policies.
He suggests it was never realistic to think the UK could leave the EU without making compromises.
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Matthew Weaver.
William Hague, the Conservative former foreign secretary and former party leader, is about to be interviewed on the Today programme about the Brexit deal.
Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage has branded the agreement “the worst deal in history”.
Speaking to ITV’s Good Morning Britain he said: “We’re giving away in excess of £40bn in return for precisely nothing. Trapped still inside the European Union’s rule book, continuing free movement of people, continuing with a foreign court having a say over our own country. Nothing has been achieved other than giving away a huge sum of money.”
He described Theresa May as “not just the worst prime minister I’ve ever seen but perhaps the most dishonest one as well”.
He added: “Get rid of her. Let’s get somebody else, let’s come back to the EU and say ‘look, let’s have a simple free trade deal or we are leaving on WTO [World Trade Organisation] terms’. And do you know what? They’ll bite our arms off.”
Asked what he thinks will happen next, he said: “I believe that the cabinet will collapse, I believe that parliament will collapse. I think we have a career political class who will put their own reselection within their parties above the interests of the nation and our democratic system.”
There’s little sign of Brexit enthusiasm in the City of London this morning.
Yesterday sterling hit a seven-month high against the euro, as the markets welcomed the news that a draft withdrawal agreement was ready.
However, the excitement was soon tempered by the criticism from Brexit-leaning MPs overnight; investors are now fretting that some cabinet members might not back the plan.
Jeffrey Donaldson’s warning that May’s plan “isn’t the right Brexit” also sent a shiver through the trading floors.
This means City firms are now trying to juggle the parliamentary arithmetic, to decide if the deal is likely to be backed by enough MPs.
Kallum Pickering of German bank Berenberg told clients this morning:
Until the text of the agreement is published, and the various Brexit-factions of government take their positions, it is difficult to judge exactly how the numbers are shaping up ahead of the parliamentary vote. Suffice to say that, the Prime Minister may have a political mountain to climb.
While the whips are likely to be already doing the rounds in her own party, May will probably be forced to court opposition bench MPs to boost the chances of getting the deal through.
So the pound is bobbing around the $1.30 mark against the US dollar this morning, still 13.5% below its levels before the referendum:
Next up on Today is the shadow business secretary, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who was repeatedly pressed on whether Brexit can be stopped - a reference to Jeremy Corbyn’s claim to German newspaper last week that Labour could not stop Brexit.Next up on Today is the shadow business secretary, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who was repeatedly pressed on whether Brexit can be stopped - a reference to Jeremy Corbyn’s claim to German newspaper last week that Labour could not stop Brexit.
She dismisses the question as hypothetical and refused to give a straight answer.She dismisses the question as hypothetical and refused to give a straight answer.
“What we have called for is a permanent customs union arrangement,” she said.“What we have called for is a permanent customs union arrangement,” she said.
Asked if Labour will back the deal she said Labour MP’s would have to see the details first. “When we see the detail we will make an assessment,” she said.Asked if Labour will back the deal she said Labour MP’s would have to see the details first. “When we see the detail we will make an assessment,” she said.
She added: “We will have dissect the 500 pages that will be put to us very soon I hope ... But based on what we have seen so far I don’t think we are going to be presented with a good deal.”She added: “We will have dissect the 500 pages that will be put to us very soon I hope ... But based on what we have seen so far I don’t think we are going to be presented with a good deal.”
DUP chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson has confirmed his party’s opposition to the agreement.DUP chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson has confirmed his party’s opposition to the agreement.
“From what we have seen and heard we do not believe this is the best deal,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.“From what we have seen and heard we do not believe this is the best deal,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
He said: “We want to see Brexit occur, but this is not the right Briexit because it doesn’t give the UK as a whole the opportunity to pursue free trade deals.”He said: “We want to see Brexit occur, but this is not the right Briexit because it doesn’t give the UK as a whole the opportunity to pursue free trade deals.”
Donaldson, who has the crucial job of marshalling the 10 DUP MPs in Parliament, added: “The problem is this fundamentally undermines the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom. If it wants to get out of this binding agreement then it will have to leave Northern Ireland behind ... and that will inevitably put pressure on Scotland. The Scottish Nationalists will use this deal to pursue their agenda of an independent Scotland.”Donaldson, who has the crucial job of marshalling the 10 DUP MPs in Parliament, added: “The problem is this fundamentally undermines the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom. If it wants to get out of this binding agreement then it will have to leave Northern Ireland behind ... and that will inevitably put pressure on Scotland. The Scottish Nationalists will use this deal to pursue their agenda of an independent Scotland.”
When it was put to him that the agreement avoided a border in the Irish Sea, Donaldson said Northern Ireland would be treated differently under the backstop arrangement.When it was put to him that the agreement avoided a border in the Irish Sea, Donaldson said Northern Ireland would be treated differently under the backstop arrangement.
He pointed to the swimming pool analogy outlined by ITV’s Robert Preston, under which Northern Ireland would be in the deep end in terms of following EU rules.He pointed to the swimming pool analogy outlined by ITV’s Robert Preston, under which Northern Ireland would be in the deep end in terms of following EU rules.
No we are not [treated the same]. I think it has been described by one commentator as like a swimming pool and Northern Ireland will be in at the deep end so we will be treated very differently from the rest of the United Kingdom.No we are not [treated the same]. I think it has been described by one commentator as like a swimming pool and Northern Ireland will be in at the deep end so we will be treated very differently from the rest of the United Kingdom.
Lest we forget. https://t.co/QGyD3NDtuULest we forget. https://t.co/QGyD3NDtuU
Ireland’s cabinet will meet this morning at 9:30am to discuss Britain’s draft agreement on Brexit, a spokesman for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said.Ireland’s cabinet will meet this morning at 9:30am to discuss Britain’s draft agreement on Brexit, a spokesman for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said.
“The Irish government want to allow the British government to have time and space to consider the draft agreements,” the spokesman said.“The Irish government want to allow the British government to have time and space to consider the draft agreements,” the spokesman said.
“The Irish government won’t be commenting any further until the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) and Tanaiste (Deputy Prime Minister) have had an opportunity to brief their colleagues and the Dail (parliament).”“The Irish government won’t be commenting any further until the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) and Tanaiste (Deputy Prime Minister) have had an opportunity to brief their colleagues and the Dail (parliament).”
A key question to be answered, indeed it is one of Andrew Sparrow’s six key questions, is what the text of the withdrawal agreement will say about the Irish backstop.A key question to be answered, indeed it is one of Andrew Sparrow’s six key questions, is what the text of the withdrawal agreement will say about the Irish backstop.
Much has been made of the “swimming pool” model, which is how ITV’s Robert Peston described his understanding of how the EU backstop will work.Much has been made of the “swimming pool” model, which is how ITV’s Robert Peston described his understanding of how the EU backstop will work.
In short, Peston describes this model as: “GB in shallow end, Northern Ireland in deep end. Theresa May will get it through her cabinet. I am pretty sure DUP and Tory Brexiters will hate it.” (And he’s not wrong there, given reactions from Arlene Foster, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg yesterday.)In short, Peston describes this model as: “GB in shallow end, Northern Ireland in deep end. Theresa May will get it through her cabinet. I am pretty sure DUP and Tory Brexiters will hate it.” (And he’s not wrong there, given reactions from Arlene Foster, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg yesterday.)
For a longer explanation, you can read his full Facebook post below.For a longer explanation, you can read his full Facebook post below.
Naomi Long, a member of the Northern Ireland Assembly, and Alliance Party leader, has tweeted this take on the “swimming pool” model.Naomi Long, a member of the Northern Ireland Assembly, and Alliance Party leader, has tweeted this take on the “swimming pool” model.
An elegant solution to #Brexit apparently... pic.twitter.com/3xlIJp1i7GAn elegant solution to #Brexit apparently... pic.twitter.com/3xlIJp1i7G
While most of the focus today will be on that 2pm cabinet meeting. Here’s what else is on the agenda for today. 11:30: Cabinet Office questionsWhile most of the focus today will be on that 2pm cabinet meeting. Here’s what else is on the agenda for today. 11:30: Cabinet Office questions
12:00: Prime Minister’s Questions12:00: Prime Minister’s Questions
1pm: A Humble Address relating to the Prince of Wales’s 70th birthday in the House of Commons (the House of Lords will do theirs at 3pm)1pm: A Humble Address relating to the Prince of Wales’s 70th birthday in the House of Commons (the House of Lords will do theirs at 3pm)
4pm: Westminster Hall event on future cost of Hinkley Point4pm: Westminster Hall event on future cost of Hinkley Point
Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news and here is the PoliticsHome’s list of today’s top reads.Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news and here is the PoliticsHome’s list of today’s top reads.
If you have questions, so does Andrew Sparrow, who has written this guide to six key questions about May’s deal that must be – but may not be – answered soon.If you have questions, so does Andrew Sparrow, who has written this guide to six key questions about May’s deal that must be – but may not be – answered soon.
“Finally, after months of procrastination, the government and parliament are reaching the point where choices about Brexit that ministers and MPs have been avoiding since the summer of 2016 can no longer be put off,” he writes.“Finally, after months of procrastination, the government and parliament are reaching the point where choices about Brexit that ministers and MPs have been avoiding since the summer of 2016 can no longer be put off,” he writes.
They include:They include:
Can Theresa May win the backing of her entire cabinet?Can Theresa May win the backing of her entire cabinet?
What will the text of the withdrawal agreement say about the Irish backstop?What will the text of the withdrawal agreement say about the Irish backstop?
Can May persuade Labour to vote for the deal?Can May persuade Labour to vote for the deal?
And looking abroad, Brexit is also front-page news in Ireland, Germany and France.And looking abroad, Brexit is also front-page news in Ireland, Germany and France.
The Irish Times’s website looks ahead to Thursday, with the headline: “May to chair crunch cabinet meeting to discuss draft UK departure deal.” Also prominent is their chat with former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who is marshalling the rejection of May’s deal. The News Letter in Belfast leads online with DUP leader Arlene Foster saying both sides of the Commons will vote with her party to reject any deal that weakens the UK. The Belfast Telegraph gets plenty in its main web headline: “Brexit breakthrough: UK handcuffed to EU with Brussels holding the keys and NI dependent on Dublin, says DUP’s Arlene Foster”.The Irish Times’s website looks ahead to Thursday, with the headline: “May to chair crunch cabinet meeting to discuss draft UK departure deal.” Also prominent is their chat with former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who is marshalling the rejection of May’s deal. The News Letter in Belfast leads online with DUP leader Arlene Foster saying both sides of the Commons will vote with her party to reject any deal that weakens the UK. The Belfast Telegraph gets plenty in its main web headline: “Brexit breakthrough: UK handcuffed to EU with Brussels holding the keys and NI dependent on Dublin, says DUP’s Arlene Foster”.
Across the Channel the news also made the front of German papers. Süddeutsche Zeitung splashes on “London reports agreement for Brexit draft”, while Die Zeit’s website headlines their story on the ominous: “Things are far from under control”.Across the Channel the news also made the front of German papers. Süddeutsche Zeitung splashes on “London reports agreement for Brexit draft”, while Die Zeit’s website headlines their story on the ominous: “Things are far from under control”.
Der Spiegel proclaims “The final has begun”, while Die Welt sizes up May’s chances and concludes: “Opposition against May’s fragile Brexit deal is huge”.Der Spiegel proclaims “The final has begun”, while Die Welt sizes up May’s chances and concludes: “Opposition against May’s fragile Brexit deal is huge”.
In France, where most of the front pages are preoccupied with Donald Trump’s attacks on Emmanuel Macron, Les Echos said: “May puts everything on her divorce project”.In France, where most of the front pages are preoccupied with Donald Trump’s attacks on Emmanuel Macron, Les Echos said: “May puts everything on her divorce project”.
Read our full wrap of how the papers covered Brexit.Read our full wrap of how the papers covered Brexit.
EU ambassadors are meeting in Brussels today. They were meant to be discussing the European commission’s no-deal preparations, but the agenda was amended after news emerged of the tentative deal. The agenda for that meeting is here:EU ambassadors are meeting in Brussels today. They were meant to be discussing the European commission’s no-deal preparations, but the agenda was amended after news emerged of the tentative deal. The agenda for that meeting is here:
Here's the agenda for today's meeting of EU27 ambassadors where they'll discuss the latest on #Brexit... for people who like to collectors these documents. https://t.co/KcsOPOlnvh pic.twitter.com/hEdXGmnSgYHere's the agenda for today's meeting of EU27 ambassadors where they'll discuss the latest on #Brexit... for people who like to collectors these documents. https://t.co/KcsOPOlnvh pic.twitter.com/hEdXGmnSgY
Unsurprisingly, the front pages of the papers today are dominated by May’s Brexit deal.Unsurprisingly, the front pages of the papers today are dominated by May’s Brexit deal.
The Guardian’s splash is “Brexit: May tells her cabinet, this is the deal – now back me”. The Daily Mail calls it “Judgment Day”. The Daily Telegraph says “May faces ‘moment of truth’ on Brexit deal”. The FT has a similar headline: “May faces moment of truth in cabinet clash over Brexit draft”.The Guardian’s splash is “Brexit: May tells her cabinet, this is the deal – now back me”. The Daily Mail calls it “Judgment Day”. The Daily Telegraph says “May faces ‘moment of truth’ on Brexit deal”. The FT has a similar headline: “May faces moment of truth in cabinet clash over Brexit draft”.
The Times is unhappy, writing “May accused of betrayal as she unveils Brexit deal” and the i writes “Deal done”, though then acknowledges how far the deal has to go before Brexit has happened.The Times is unhappy, writing “May accused of betrayal as she unveils Brexit deal” and the i writes “Deal done”, though then acknowledges how far the deal has to go before Brexit has happened.
The Daily Express, however, is loving the deal: “This Brexit deal is best for Britain”, runs their headline.The Daily Express, however, is loving the deal: “This Brexit deal is best for Britain”, runs their headline.
Wednesday’s GUARDIAN: “Brexit: May tells her cabinet, this is the deal - now back me” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/dhwumjC8ZIWednesday’s GUARDIAN: “Brexit: May tells her cabinet, this is the deal - now back me” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/dhwumjC8ZI
Wednesday’s TIMES: “May accused of betrayal as she unveils Brexit deal” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/eN9J6RZNdHWednesday’s TIMES: “May accused of betrayal as she unveils Brexit deal” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/eN9J6RZNdH
Wednesday’s Daily EXPRESS: “This Brexit Deal Is Best For Britain” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/eWvaiwTerhWednesday’s Daily EXPRESS: “This Brexit Deal Is Best For Britain” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/eWvaiwTerh
Tony Blair will hit out at Jeremy Corbyn’s “abject refusal” to lead the UK “out of the Brexit nightmare”.Tony Blair will hit out at Jeremy Corbyn’s “abject refusal” to lead the UK “out of the Brexit nightmare”.
The former prime minister will say it is “gut-wrenching” that Labour is not leading the call for a second referendum.The former prime minister will say it is “gut-wrenching” that Labour is not leading the call for a second referendum.
In a speech in London, Blair will repeat his call for a second referendum because Theresa May’s proposals, which he says are “Brexit in name but tied still to Europe in reality”, will disappoint those on both sides. In a speech in London, Blair will repeat his call for a second referendum because Theresa May’s proposals, which he says are “Brexit in name but tied still to Europe in reality”, will disappoint those on both sides. He will say:
“Whatever the people voted for, they didn’t vote for this,” he will say. Whatever the people voted for, they didn’t vote for this.
“I know it is said a new vote of the people will also divide. But a reconsideration in the light of all we now know, accepted by all as the final word, especially if accompanied by a new willingness on the part of Europe’s leadership and Britain’s to deal with the reasons for the Brexit decision, is the only hope of unity in the future. I know it is said a new vote of the people will also divide. But a reconsideration in the light of all we now know, accepted by all as the final word, especially if accompanied by a new willingness on the part of Europe’s leadership and Britain’s to deal with the reasons for the Brexit decision, is the only hope of unity in the future.
“It is frankly gut-wrenching that this call is not being led by Labour as it should be.” It is frankly gut-wrenching that this call is not being led by Labour as it should be.
In a defence of his record, Mr Blair will say: “The denigration of the Labour Party record in government and its designation by the far left as ‘neo-liberal’ is one of the most absurd and self-defeating caricatures of modern political history. In a defence of his record, Mr Blair will say:
“The Labour Party has paid, but more importantly the country has paid, a heavy price for this stupidity. The denigration of the Labour party record in government and its designation by the far left as ‘neo-liberal’ is one of the most absurd and self-defeating caricatures of modern political history.
“It has undermined the achievements of the party in government. It has weakened the Labour Party’s ability to win by depriving it of a unifying message which can reach the centre ground and led to the abject refusal of the Labour leadership to lead the country out of the Brexit nightmare.” The Labour party has paid, but more importantly the country has paid, a heavy price for this stupidity.
It has undermined the achievements of the party in government. It has weakened the Labour Party’s ability to win by depriving it of a unifying message which can reach the centre ground and led to the abject refusal of the Labour leadership to lead the country out of the Brexit nightmare.
Good morning and welcome to Politics Live on what could be a fairly momentous day. I’ll be keeping the blog warm for a bit before Andrew Sparrow takes over, thanks for following along.Good morning and welcome to Politics Live on what could be a fairly momentous day. I’ll be keeping the blog warm for a bit before Andrew Sparrow takes over, thanks for following along.
Here’s where we are:Here’s where we are:
An emergency cabinet meeting will be held this afternoon at 2pm, which sources have said is expected to last three hours. Cabinet ministers will debate the draft of an agreement to withdraw from the EU that has finally been reached after torturous negotiations, more than two years after the UK voted to leave the European Union.An emergency cabinet meeting will be held this afternoon at 2pm, which sources have said is expected to last three hours. Cabinet ministers will debate the draft of an agreement to withdraw from the EU that has finally been reached after torturous negotiations, more than two years after the UK voted to leave the European Union.
Yesterday, May called in her ministers to Number 10, one by one, for briefings on the agreement, in what is being seen as a divide-and-conquer strategy and ministers were supposed to study the draft text, particularly the provisions around the Irish border, overnight.Yesterday, May called in her ministers to Number 10, one by one, for briefings on the agreement, in what is being seen as a divide-and-conquer strategy and ministers were supposed to study the draft text, particularly the provisions around the Irish border, overnight.
Getting this past cabinet is the first hurdle for May. If May secures the support of her colleagues during this meeting, she will then launch a campaign to sell the deal to the country, beginning with a live televised media conference.Getting this past cabinet is the first hurdle for May. If May secures the support of her colleagues during this meeting, she will then launch a campaign to sell the deal to the country, beginning with a live televised media conference.
Given that May sometimes struggles as a performer, some have suggested a live conference is not necessarily the best way to sell the agreement to a disillusioned populace.Given that May sometimes struggles as a performer, some have suggested a live conference is not necessarily the best way to sell the agreement to a disillusioned populace.
If the cabinet approves the plan, the EU expects to hold a special Brexit summit on 25 November. May then takes the deal to parliament, most likely in mid-December.If the cabinet approves the plan, the EU expects to hold a special Brexit summit on 25 November. May then takes the deal to parliament, most likely in mid-December.
If they don’t approve it, the UK careers closer to a “no-deal” Brexit, potentially leaving the EU without any agreement reached on important issues such as trade, the status of EU citizens in the UK or UK citizens in the EU.If they don’t approve it, the UK careers closer to a “no-deal” Brexit, potentially leaving the EU without any agreement reached on important issues such as trade, the status of EU citizens in the UK or UK citizens in the EU.