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Brexit deal: Tory ministers meet to decide fate of agreement – Politics live | Brexit deal: Tory ministers meet to decide fate of agreement – Politics live |
(35 minutes later) | |
This is from the BBC’s Joey D’Urso. | |
TIM BARROW, the UK's ambassador to the EU, just went into 70 Whitehall where cabinet ministers have been looking at the final text of a Brexit deal. | |
PMQs is starting soon. | |
Normally I post an immediate snap verdict, summarising the May/Corbyn exchanges. That is because, for many people, they are the highlight of PMQs, and they want to know who “won”. But today it is clear that what matters most is not May v Corbyn, but May v the Commons as a whole, and so I won’t post a verdict until the whole thing is over. | |
Here is the batting order. | |
As the Irish government keeps its response to the proposed Brexit deal low key, media analysts declared potential victory over Dublin’s insistence on a backstop to avert a hard border between the republic and Northern Ireland. | |
“If the emerging shape of the backstop is reflected in the final withdrawal agreement and – crucially – passed through the House of Commons, then the government can claim a huge success,” Fiach Kelly wrote in the Irish Times. | |
The prospect of the UK remaining in customs arrangement with the European Union would be another win for Dublin as it would protect east-west trade between Ireland and Britain. | |
With an eye on a possible general election in the next few months the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, and tanaiste, Simon Coveney, will have to tread a fine line between telling voters the Fine Gael-led government prevailed in negotiations without further provoking Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party, which could sink the deal at Westminster. | |
This is from the Sun’s Harry Cole. | |
🚨Cabinet source says Geoffrey Cox has told colleagues overnight that there is no material difference from a legal point of view to the backstop exit mechanism from three weeks ago... but he will be backing the deal regardless. | |
This is from a DUP MLA (member of the legislative assembly). It has just been retweeted by the DUP leader Arlene Foster. | |
Politics may be the art of the possible, but it is also the science of mathematics of votes | |
Here is where we stand this morning. Quite often in politics you get a lot of noise, but not a lot of news. The airwaves have been full of people commenting on Brexit developments this morning, but the story has not moved on a great deal since last night. | |
That said, here are the latest developments. | |
Cabinet ministers have been visiting Number 10 to be briefed on the deal, but so far no one has resigned. That does not mean there won’t be resignations later. Resignations that involve flouncing out of Downing Street in a huff have not been in fashion since Michael Heseltine, and it worth remembering that the two cabinet ministers who resigned over the Chequers deal (David Davis and Boris Johnson) did so more than 48 hours after the cabinet meeting where they supposedly agreed it. But it does seem that, if there are resignations, they will be few, and they won’t involve the most senior figures. Here is one take from last night. | |
Brexit deal latest: Cabinet sources say May’s pivotal 5 senior ministers - Raab, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Cox - will back it. Leadsom and Grayling also on board. McVey and Mordaunt so far not.https://t.co/Um0TUGS0tR | |
Tory Brexiters have been escalating their anti-deal rhetoric. For example, see 9.35am and 9.42am. However, that is not necessarily a sign of strength. The Brexiters were hoping that the cabinet would kill Theresa May’s proposed deal, but that does not seem to be happening. | |
Tory Brexiters have been talking up the chances of May facing a leadership challenge. Andrew Bridgen said that explicitly this morning. (See 8.52am.) And Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the ERG, said this on Newsnight last night. | |
There comes a point at which the policy and the individual become so intimately connected that it will become very hard to carry on supporting the person promoting this. | |
Until now Rees-Mogg has argued (with some but not total success) that the ERG’s gripe is just with May’s policy, not with May herself. Now it is getting more personal. But the Brexiters are still stuck with the problem that they probably don’t have enough votes to defeat May in a confidence motion, even though they almost certainly do have the numbers (48) to trigger a no confidence vote in the first place. | |
“There comes a point at which the policy and the individual become so intimately connected that it would be very hard to carry on supporting the person who is promoting this policy”- Jacob Rees-Mogg, chairman of the European Research Group@Jacob_Rees_Mogg | #newsnight pic.twitter.com/quLuYQOJkJ | |
The DUP has signalled that it will oppose the plan. | |
A Times reporting claiming that a very senior EU official said the EU would “retain all the controls” under the plan (see 8.25am) has been widely commented on in London. Brexiters have cited it as evidence for their theory that the deal will preserve the UK as a “vassal” state. But the Evening Standard, edited by the pro-European George Osborne, has adopted this line too. (See 11.28am.) Most MPs are reserving judgement until they see the text of the deal, which is expected to be released later this afternoon, perhaps at around 6pm. | |
Labour remains critical of the deal (this is what Jeremy Corbyn said about it last night) but the party’s business spokesman, Rebecca Long-Bailey, struggled this morning to explain why the party would vote against the plan if it really would keep the UK in the customs union and aligned to EU rules in the way people are reporting. (See 7.46am.) It is worth remembering what Jeremy Corbyn told the Labour conference in September. He said: | |
Let me also reach out to the prime minister, who is currently doing the negotiating. | |
Brexit is about the future of our country and our vital interests. It is not about leadership squabbles or parliamentary posturing. If you deliver a deal that includes a customs union and no hard border in Ireland, if you protect jobs, people’s rights at work and environmental and consumer standards - then we will support that sensible deal. A deal that would be backed by most of the business world and trade unions too. | |
Tom Newton Dunn, political editor of The Sun, reports that international development secretary Penny Mordaunt wants “further assurances” before she backs the Brexit deal. | |
Apparently she won’t unleash ‘fireworks’ at the cabinet meeting this afternoon, though. | |
I’m told Penny Mordaunt is awaiting further assurances before she puts her name to the Brexit deal, having now read it and seen PM. But allies warn “don't expect fireworks today” from her. | |
Here is the Evening Standard’s splash. The Standard, of course, is edited by George Osborne, the remain-voting Tory who was sacked as chancellor by Theresa May. | |
Today’s @EveningStandard: EU takes back control pic.twitter.com/Vm558iP4tg | |
Five months after resigning from the government over Brexit, former justice minister Phillip Lee says he cannot vote for the deal when it comes before parliament. | Five months after resigning from the government over Brexit, former justice minister Phillip Lee says he cannot vote for the deal when it comes before parliament. |
Speaking on the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire show, Lee insists that it should go to a people’s vote, saying: | Speaking on the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire show, Lee insists that it should go to a people’s vote, saying: |
Where we’re going to end up is not where was promised. This is political fraud, and I’m not putting my name to it. | Where we’re going to end up is not where was promised. This is political fraud, and I’m not putting my name to it. |
If the public, having read the deal, having understood that Northern Ireland is going to be treated differently, having understood that we’re going to be taking the obligations but not the benefits of EU membership... | If the public, having read the deal, having understood that Northern Ireland is going to be treated differently, having understood that we’re going to be taking the obligations but not the benefits of EU membership... |
If they understand all that and vote for it, then I’m a democrat and I’ll respect that. None of that appeared on the side of a bus in 2016. | If they understand all that and vote for it, then I’m a democrat and I’ll respect that. None of that appeared on the side of a bus in 2016. |
‘This is political fraud and I am not putting my name to it,’ @DrPhillipLeeMPon why he is calling for a public vote on the final #Brexit deal.The Cabinet is set to discuss the draft agreement.https://t.co/BBWw9tnm6D pic.twitter.com/rREXX99mmW | ‘This is political fraud and I am not putting my name to it,’ @DrPhillipLeeMPon why he is calling for a public vote on the final #Brexit deal.The Cabinet is set to discuss the draft agreement.https://t.co/BBWw9tnm6D pic.twitter.com/rREXX99mmW |
Michel Barnier will not be the person briefing EU ambassadors today on behalf of the EU, Schinas says. | Michel Barnier will not be the person briefing EU ambassadors today on behalf of the EU, Schinas says. |
Q: If things happen in London, and through the EU meeting today, will there be further updates? | Q: If things happen in London, and through the EU meeting today, will there be further updates? |
Schinas says yes. There could be announcements today or in the coming days. | Schinas says yes. There could be announcements today or in the coming days. |
Q: Does the text include a Northern Ireland-specific backstop plan? | Q: Does the text include a Northern Ireland-specific backstop plan? |
Schinas says he is not able to comment at this point. | Schinas says he is not able to comment at this point. |
Q: If the UK cabinet or parliament reject this deal, is there the time or the willingness to reopen negotiations? | Q: If the UK cabinet or parliament reject this deal, is there the time or the willingness to reopen negotiations? |
Schinas says he will not speculate on that. | Schinas says he will not speculate on that. |
Schinas is now taking questions. | Schinas is now taking questions. |
Q: You did not mention Brexit in your opening remarks. Can you tell us what has been agreed, and what are the next steps? | Q: You did not mention Brexit in your opening remarks. Can you tell us what has been agreed, and what are the next steps? |
Schinas says the negotiators have been working intensively on a withdrawal agreement and a future partnership document. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, briefed ambassadors on this. The cabinet will meet this afternoon. And the EU will brief member states this afternoon. | Schinas says the negotiators have been working intensively on a withdrawal agreement and a future partnership document. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, briefed ambassadors on this. The cabinet will meet this afternoon. And the EU will brief member states this afternoon. |
He says the EU is not commenting on the moment. But it will brief when it is able to. “So stay tuned,” he concludes. | He says the EU is not commenting on the moment. But it will brief when it is able to. “So stay tuned,” he concludes. |
In Brussels the European commission’s chief spokesman, Margaritis Schinas, is holding his regular briefing. You can watch a live feed here. | In Brussels the European commission’s chief spokesman, Margaritis Schinas, is holding his regular briefing. You can watch a live feed here. |
I’m monitoring it for Brexit news. | I’m monitoring it for Brexit news. |
This is from my colleague Jessica Elgot. | This is from my colleague Jessica Elgot. |
Dominic Grieve says he can't vote for the deal if it is as briefed in Sabine Weyand's briefing note. “I could not look my constituents in the eye and say this would be a better deal than the one we have as a member of the EU." | Dominic Grieve says he can't vote for the deal if it is as briefed in Sabine Weyand's briefing note. “I could not look my constituents in the eye and say this would be a better deal than the one we have as a member of the EU." |