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| Coalition faces losing Nauru bill battle on last sitting day of year – politics live | Coalition faces losing Nauru bill battle on last sitting day of year – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Scott Morrison has called a press conference in the Blue Room for 10.20am. | |
| BREAKING: Frantic series of phone calls/messages between Cabinet ministers last night and this morning. Fear in ministerial wing that if independents succeed, government is cooked. #7News #auspol https://t.co/3BZBhoEh23 | |
| So (and thank you to the experts, who are frantically answering my procedure questions), it seems that a delay in the Senate would mean the House would have to suspend standing orders to consider the message from the Senate. That is where the absolute majority comes in - 76. Labor and the Greens and the crossbench, minus Bob Katter, make for 75. | |
| The House has an automatic adjournment standing order that kicks off at 4.30pm (no more government business). | |
| Looking at the daily program, number three on government business today, is Christopher Pyne suspending standing orders 31 and 33, which would prevent the automatic adjournment and remove a limit on new business being introduced after the scheduled adjournment time – meaning the House decides when it adjourns. | |
| If those standing orders get suspended, the time limit won’t apply. If they don’t get suspended, they will. | |
| BASICALLY – the government is trying to arrange the timetable to make any sure the motion from the Senate which will bring this all on doesn’t make it to the House in time to be passed. | |
| What that means is that the government will bring the Senate motion on so late, that it is too late to make it into the House, where they are all but guaranteed of losing the vote. | |
| Shiz is getting REAL | |
| Government planning to time Senate message on refugee bill to ensure House can’t vote before rising. Desperate attempt to avoid once in a 100-year loss on floor of House. Indies will need 76 votes to stop. Govt MP will have to cross floor knowing could bring down Govt. #auspol | |
| This is the most sunshine and lollypops and rainbow cakes served by unicorns take on this ever uttered in the history of capitalism: | This is the most sunshine and lollypops and rainbow cakes served by unicorns take on this ever uttered in the history of capitalism: |
| .@JoshFrydenberg says he is not worried about the slowdown in household savings. 'It reflects consumers confidence in the economy that they can feel they can spend.'MORE: https://t.co/N9jCbV08Og #FirstEdition pic.twitter.com/i9Q688OUD2 | |
| The bells have rung and parliament has begun. | The bells have rung and parliament has begun. |
| Scott Morrison wandered over to Tony Abbott and had a chat to start the parliamentary morning off. | Scott Morrison wandered over to Tony Abbott and had a chat to start the parliamentary morning off. |
| Thinking through some scenarios about today | Thinking through some scenarios about today |
| It looks at the moment like the government is going to lose this vote on transferring people from Nauru and Manus. | It looks at the moment like the government is going to lose this vote on transferring people from Nauru and Manus. |
| The Senate crossbenchers appear locked and loaded, and the numbers appear to be there in the House. | The Senate crossbenchers appear locked and loaded, and the numbers appear to be there in the House. |
| Losing a legislative vote is extremely rare. | Losing a legislative vote is extremely rare. |
| It can be interpreted as a vote of no confidence in the government of the day. So the next logical question in my mind after absorbing these facts is will Labor take things to the next step this afternoon and move a motion of no confidence in the government? | It can be interpreted as a vote of no confidence in the government of the day. So the next logical question in my mind after absorbing these facts is will Labor take things to the next step this afternoon and move a motion of no confidence in the government? |
| At this stage, it doesn’t seem likely. Some independents have confidence and supply agreements with the government, and don’t want an election any time before next year.The only rule on the last sitting day of the year is anything can happen. But a formal no-confidence vote seems unlikely ... as of now. | At this stage, it doesn’t seem likely. Some independents have confidence and supply agreements with the government, and don’t want an election any time before next year.The only rule on the last sitting day of the year is anything can happen. But a formal no-confidence vote seems unlikely ... as of now. |
| So while you all marinate on no confidence and de facto no confidence motions, here are a couple more of your snapshots of the 2018 political year: | So while you all marinate on no confidence and de facto no confidence motions, here are a couple more of your snapshots of the 2018 political year: |
| Sophie: I think we’re in a big political moment right now. The far right of the Liberal party have revealed themselves as primarily preoccupied with fighting culture wars on climate, sexuality, gender and immigration – and willing to go to extraordinary, destructive lengths to pursue their ideological ends. The Labor party have revealed themselves emboldened to stand up only when they don’t believe they face any electoral threat in doing so (hello, Adani); and the Australian people have shown that grassroots organising and collective action is well and truly alive and kicking. | Sophie: I think we’re in a big political moment right now. The far right of the Liberal party have revealed themselves as primarily preoccupied with fighting culture wars on climate, sexuality, gender and immigration – and willing to go to extraordinary, destructive lengths to pursue their ideological ends. The Labor party have revealed themselves emboldened to stand up only when they don’t believe they face any electoral threat in doing so (hello, Adani); and the Australian people have shown that grassroots organising and collective action is well and truly alive and kicking. |
| From the many many rallies calling for refugees to be brought here to safety, to the extraordinary efforts of LGBTI activists and their allies to ensure a YES vote in the destructive plebiscite (one year on, I know), to the grassroots organising of Democracy In Colour activists fighting race-baiting and division during the Victorian election, the mobilisation of women in Queensland to see abortion finally decriminalised, to the persistent efforts of First Nations people, farmers, climate activists and young people to protect the climate and stop Adani ... this year has had some awful, depressing political moments; but it has also been a year of community power. | From the many many rallies calling for refugees to be brought here to safety, to the extraordinary efforts of LGBTI activists and their allies to ensure a YES vote in the destructive plebiscite (one year on, I know), to the grassroots organising of Democracy In Colour activists fighting race-baiting and division during the Victorian election, the mobilisation of women in Queensland to see abortion finally decriminalised, to the persistent efforts of First Nations people, farmers, climate activists and young people to protect the climate and stop Adani ... this year has had some awful, depressing political moments; but it has also been a year of community power. |
| Ivy: I don’t think I will ever forget or forgive the Coalition for suspending parliament on the day Malcolm Turnbull was deposed in order to avoid the scrutiny of the House – a shameful, undemocratic, action, as far as I was concerned. | Ivy: I don’t think I will ever forget or forgive the Coalition for suspending parliament on the day Malcolm Turnbull was deposed in order to avoid the scrutiny of the House – a shameful, undemocratic, action, as far as I was concerned. |
| Kate: At the beginning of the year it seemed that the composition of the Senate changed every week. Other than that, the many demonstrations of narcissism (mostly from the ‘Right’) are what I take from the year just passed. | Kate: At the beginning of the year it seemed that the composition of the Senate changed every week. Other than that, the many demonstrations of narcissism (mostly from the ‘Right’) are what I take from the year just passed. |
| Patricia: A standout for me was the Liberal party floundering in Victoria during the recent election campaign when we had a shocking incident in Melbourne with the owner of a famous coffee shop, Pellegrini’s, being killed. [Scott] Morrison couldn’t wait to make what he thought would be political gains from this incident, holding a press conference 50 metres from Pellegrini’s doorstep and preaching hatred and fear to the people of Victoria and the country. The voters gave Morrison their reply and decimated the Victorian Liberal party. | Patricia: A standout for me was the Liberal party floundering in Victoria during the recent election campaign when we had a shocking incident in Melbourne with the owner of a famous coffee shop, Pellegrini’s, being killed. [Scott] Morrison couldn’t wait to make what he thought would be political gains from this incident, holding a press conference 50 metres from Pellegrini’s doorstep and preaching hatred and fear to the people of Victoria and the country. The voters gave Morrison their reply and decimated the Victorian Liberal party. |
| A sign I think that the worm has turned. A sign of hope for decency to be returned in this once-great country. A sign that Morrison will be the shortest-term PM that this country has seen in its history, after the federal election. | A sign I think that the worm has turned. A sign of hope for decency to be returned in this once-great country. A sign that Morrison will be the shortest-term PM that this country has seen in its history, after the federal election. |
| Scott: Simply everything the senator Penny Wong has said or done has been a highlight. Is that too gushy? | Scott: Simply everything the senator Penny Wong has said or done has been a highlight. Is that too gushy? |
| OK, let’s try this: 2018 highlight is senator Penny Wong’s reaction as the marriage equality result was revealed. It was a beautiful reminder that, after all the noise and agendas and distractions were removed, it was simply a question about people and their relationships. People matter. | OK, let’s try this: 2018 highlight is senator Penny Wong’s reaction as the marriage equality result was revealed. It was a beautiful reminder that, after all the noise and agendas and distractions were removed, it was simply a question about people and their relationships. People matter. |
| Just a little more on no confidence and de facto no-confidence motions as per the House of Reps practice. | Just a little more on no confidence and de facto no-confidence motions as per the House of Reps practice. |
| A government may consider it appropriate, if it is defeated on a matter which it deems to be of sufficient importance, to seek the feeling of the House at the first opportunity by means of a motion of confidence. A motion of confidence could also be used pre-emptively – for example, in October 1975 prime minister Whitlam, following an announcement of the opposition’s intention to delay in the Senate bills appropriating money for the ordinary annual services of the government, moved a motion of confidence in the government. An amendment was moved and negatived and the original motion agreed to.[261] | A government may consider it appropriate, if it is defeated on a matter which it deems to be of sufficient importance, to seek the feeling of the House at the first opportunity by means of a motion of confidence. A motion of confidence could also be used pre-emptively – for example, in October 1975 prime minister Whitlam, following an announcement of the opposition’s intention to delay in the Senate bills appropriating money for the ordinary annual services of the government, moved a motion of confidence in the government. An amendment was moved and negatived and the original motion agreed to.[261] |
| In 1903 the government was defeated on an important amendment to a conciliation and arbitration bill. Prime minister Barton stated that the vote created a situation of some gravity and the ministry would consider its position before any further business was undertaken. | In 1903 the government was defeated on an important amendment to a conciliation and arbitration bill. Prime minister Barton stated that the vote created a situation of some gravity and the ministry would consider its position before any further business was undertaken. |
| The next day he announced that the government could not accept the amendment or proceed with the bill as amended and, therefore, the government intended to drop the bill.[262] | The next day he announced that the government could not accept the amendment or proceed with the bill as amended and, therefore, the government intended to drop the bill.[262] |
| The same government also decided not to proceed with the Papua (British Papua New Guinea) bill after the government was defeated on certain amendments.[263] | The same government also decided not to proceed with the Papua (British Papua New Guinea) bill after the government was defeated on certain amendments.[263] |
| ... Although it has been claimed that the loss of control of the business of the House is a matter over which governments should resign, the loss of a vote on such an issue is not necessarily fatal for a government. | ... Although it has been claimed that the loss of control of the business of the House is a matter over which governments should resign, the loss of a vote on such an issue is not necessarily fatal for a government. |
| In 1908 prime minister Deakin resigned when he accepted that any amendment to a motion to alter the hour of next meeting was a challenge to his government, and the 1909 and 1931 resignations of governments followed from similar acceptances (see below). | In 1908 prime minister Deakin resigned when he accepted that any amendment to a motion to alter the hour of next meeting was a challenge to his government, and the 1909 and 1931 resignations of governments followed from similar acceptances (see below). |
| In each case the governments were on the point of losing the necessary support to remain in power. | In each case the governments were on the point of losing the necessary support to remain in power. |
| In 1923, however, the government having lost control of the business of the House the previous evening, prime minister Bruce confidently assured the opposition “the government will very soon take it back into its own hands today”.[267] | In 1923, however, the government having lost control of the business of the House the previous evening, prime minister Bruce confidently assured the opposition “the government will very soon take it back into its own hands today”.[267] |
| During 1962 and 1963, when the Menzies government had a floor majority[268] of one, it suffered a number of defeats on procedural motions[269] and, although it did not resign, its precarious majority was a factor which led to an early dissolution.[270] | During 1962 and 1963, when the Menzies government had a floor majority[268] of one, it suffered a number of defeats on procedural motions[269] and, although it did not resign, its precarious majority was a factor which led to an early dissolution.[270] |
| During the 43rd parliament the minority Gillard government lost a significant number of divisions.[271] | During the 43rd parliament the minority Gillard government lost a significant number of divisions.[271] |
| In the 45th parliament the Turnbull government, with a floor majority of one, was defeated on several procedural motions.[272] | In the 45th parliament the Turnbull government, with a floor majority of one, was defeated on several procedural motions.[272] |
| While there has never been a successful vote of no confidence or censure of a government in the House of Representatives, on eight occasions governments have either resigned or advised a dissolution following their defeat on other questions: | While there has never been a successful vote of no confidence or censure of a government in the House of Representatives, on eight occasions governments have either resigned or advised a dissolution following their defeat on other questions: |
| Deakin Ministry, 21 April 1904—The Government resigned following its defeat 29:38 in committee (detail stage) on an amendment moved by the Opposition to the Commonwealth Conciliation and Arbitration Bill.[273] | Deakin Ministry, 21 April 1904—The Government resigned following its defeat 29:38 in committee (detail stage) on an amendment moved by the Opposition to the Commonwealth Conciliation and Arbitration Bill.[273] |
| Watson Ministry, 12 August 1904—The Government resigned following its defeat 34:36 on an amendment to its motion that the Commonwealth Conciliation and Arbitration Bill, which it inherited from the previous Government and carried through the committee (detail) stage, be recommitted for consideration of certain clauses and a schedule.[274] | Watson Ministry, 12 August 1904—The Government resigned following its defeat 34:36 on an amendment to its motion that the Commonwealth Conciliation and Arbitration Bill, which it inherited from the previous Government and carried through the committee (detail) stage, be recommitted for consideration of certain clauses and a schedule.[274] |
| Reid Ministry, 30 June 1905—The Government resigned following the House agreeing 42:25 to an amendment to the Address in Reply (proposing to add the words ‘but are of the opinion that practical measures should be proceeded with’).[275] | Reid Ministry, 30 June 1905—The Government resigned following the House agreeing 42:25 to an amendment to the Address in Reply (proposing to add the words ‘but are of the opinion that practical measures should be proceeded with’).[275] |
| Deakin Ministry, 10 November 1908—The Government resigned following its defeat 13:49 on an amendment to the motion to alter the hour of next meeting.[276] | Deakin Ministry, 10 November 1908—The Government resigned following its defeat 13:49 on an amendment to the motion to alter the hour of next meeting.[276] |
| Fisher Ministry, 27 May 1909—The Government resigned following defeat 30:39 on a motion moved by a private Member to adjourn debate on the Address in Reply.[277] | Fisher Ministry, 27 May 1909—The Government resigned following defeat 30:39 on a motion moved by a private Member to adjourn debate on the Address in Reply.[277] |
| Bruce–Page Ministry, 10 September 1929—The Governor-General accepted the Prime Minister’s advice to dissolve the House after an amendment had been agreed to in committee (detail stage) to the Maritime Industries Bill (35:34). The amendment was to the effect that proclamation of the Act would not be earlier than its submission to the people either at a referendum or a general election.[278] | Bruce–Page Ministry, 10 September 1929—The Governor-General accepted the Prime Minister’s advice to dissolve the House after an amendment had been agreed to in committee (detail stage) to the Maritime Industries Bill (35:34). The amendment was to the effect that proclamation of the Act would not be earlier than its submission to the people either at a referendum or a general election.[278] |
| Scullin Ministry, 25 November 1931—The Governor-General accepted the Prime Minister’s advice to dissolve the House after the question ‘That the House do now adjourn’ was agreed to 37:32, against the wishes of the Government.[279] | Scullin Ministry, 25 November 1931—The Governor-General accepted the Prime Minister’s advice to dissolve the House after the question ‘That the House do now adjourn’ was agreed to 37:32, against the wishes of the Government.[279] |
| Fadden Ministry, 3 October 1941—The Government resigned when, during the Budget debate in committee of supply, an opposition amendment to the effect that the first item in the estimates be reduced by a nominal sum (£1) was agreed to 36:33.[280] | Fadden Ministry, 3 October 1941—The Government resigned when, during the Budget debate in committee of supply, an opposition amendment to the effect that the first item in the estimates be reduced by a nominal sum (£1) was agreed to 36:33.[280] |
| Again, a government losing a vote on the floor happens – when it comes to procedure. | Again, a government losing a vote on the floor happens – when it comes to procedure. |
| Legislative losses are very, very rare. | Legislative losses are very, very rare. |
| The last time a govt lost a vote on legislation on the floor of the HoR was in 1929 when the Maritime Industries Bill was amended by 35 votes to 34. PM Stanley Brice called an election the next day - and lost. #auspol | The last time a govt lost a vote on legislation on the floor of the HoR was in 1929 when the Maritime Industries Bill was amended by 35 votes to 34. PM Stanley Brice called an election the next day - and lost. #auspol |
| Stanley Bruce took that loss as a de facto loss of confidence, which is why he called the election. | Stanley Bruce took that loss as a de facto loss of confidence, which is why he called the election. |
| This government doesn’t have to accept the loss as a no confidence. As the House practices lays out: | This government doesn’t have to accept the loss as a no confidence. As the House practices lays out: |
| Withdrawal of confidence shown by defeat on other questions | Withdrawal of confidence shown by defeat on other questions |
| The withdrawal by the House of its confidence in the government may be shown: | The withdrawal by the House of its confidence in the government may be shown: |
| By a direct vote of censure of or no confidence in the government. | By a direct vote of censure of or no confidence in the government. |
| By defeat on an issue central to government policy or rejecting a legislative measure proposed by the government, the acceptance of which the government has declared to be of vital importance. Conversely, a vote by the House agreeing to a particular legislative measure or provision contrary to the advice and consent of the government could similarly be regarded as a matter of confidence. Following defeat a government may choose to resign, as in April and August 1904, 1929 and 1941 (see page 322), or to seek a direct vote of confidence. | By defeat on an issue central to government policy or rejecting a legislative measure proposed by the government, the acceptance of which the government has declared to be of vital importance. Conversely, a vote by the House agreeing to a particular legislative measure or provision contrary to the advice and consent of the government could similarly be regarded as a matter of confidence. Following defeat a government may choose to resign, as in April and August 1904, 1929 and 1941 (see page 322), or to seek a direct vote of confidence. |
| By defeat of the government on a vote not necessarily central to government policy but accepted by the government as one of confidence, as in 1905, 1908, 1909 and 1931 (see page 322). | By defeat of the government on a vote not necessarily central to government policy but accepted by the government as one of confidence, as in 1905, 1908, 1909 and 1931 (see page 322). |
| A defeat of the government in the House of Representatives does not necessarily mean it has lost the confidence of the House or that it ought to resign. As Jennings states: | A defeat of the government in the House of Representatives does not necessarily mean it has lost the confidence of the House or that it ought to resign. As Jennings states: |
| It must not be thought … that a single defeat necessarily demands either resignation or dissolution. Such a result follows only where the defeat implies loss of confidence … [259] | It must not be thought … that a single defeat necessarily demands either resignation or dissolution. Such a result follows only where the defeat implies loss of confidence … [259] |
| What a government will treat as a matter of sufficient importance to demand resignation or dissolution is, primarily, a question for the government. The opposition can always test the opinion of the House by a vote of no confidence. No government [in the United Kingdom] since 1832 has failed to regard such a motion, if carried, as decisive. A House whose opinion was rejected has always at hand the ultimate remedy of the refusal of supply.[260] | What a government will treat as a matter of sufficient importance to demand resignation or dissolution is, primarily, a question for the government. The opposition can always test the opinion of the House by a vote of no confidence. No government [in the United Kingdom] since 1832 has failed to regard such a motion, if carried, as decisive. A House whose opinion was rejected has always at hand the ultimate remedy of the refusal of supply.[260] |
| Some more of your snapshots: | Some more of your snapshots: |
| Greg: The major turnaround and thus lowlight of the year was the brain snap of the Liberal party in August. They shot themselves in the foot and have continued to do so while their feet are in their mouths since ... fancy thinking the public would wear Peter Dutton when their best marketing politician Malcolm Turnbull was actually making headway. | Greg: The major turnaround and thus lowlight of the year was the brain snap of the Liberal party in August. They shot themselves in the foot and have continued to do so while their feet are in their mouths since ... fancy thinking the public would wear Peter Dutton when their best marketing politician Malcolm Turnbull was actually making headway. |
| They even managed to sideline their best-performing minister, Julie Bishop, and lost the balance of power as well. | They even managed to sideline their best-performing minister, Julie Bishop, and lost the balance of power as well. |
| They lost a safe blue-ribbon seat and helped force the Victorian Liberal party into four more years in exile and possibly longer. | They lost a safe blue-ribbon seat and helped force the Victorian Liberal party into four more years in exile and possibly longer. |
| They killed the chance for a climate and emissions/energy policy and ruined the chances of a win by the Coalition in NSW. And what was it all for? Payback by the far right? ... | They killed the chance for a climate and emissions/energy policy and ruined the chances of a win by the Coalition in NSW. And what was it all for? Payback by the far right? ... |
| The highlight for the year was the children’s strike for climate change that was only soured by conservative politicians who abused them for giving voice to their concerns. | The highlight for the year was the children’s strike for climate change that was only soured by conservative politicians who abused them for giving voice to their concerns. |
| These children in a very short time will vote and breathe a new life into politics which badly needs resuscitating. | These children in a very short time will vote and breathe a new life into politics which badly needs resuscitating. |
| The regret of the year has to be Manus and Nauru but it has been the same regret for nearly a decade. | The regret of the year has to be Manus and Nauru but it has been the same regret for nearly a decade. |
| Harry: I want to say that there are many who post BTL who have been standouts with their wit, drollery, their astute observations and sometimes biting comments. There has been many a coffee spurt caused by the usual suspects. Their contributions always enlivens the blog and infuriates the conservatives, which can only be a Good Thing. I hope every one has a safe and happy holiday period. With only 10 sitting days in eight months coming up we politics tragics are going to go through withdrawal symptoms without Politics Live. | Harry: I want to say that there are many who post BTL who have been standouts with their wit, drollery, their astute observations and sometimes biting comments. There has been many a coffee spurt caused by the usual suspects. Their contributions always enlivens the blog and infuriates the conservatives, which can only be a Good Thing. I hope every one has a safe and happy holiday period. With only 10 sitting days in eight months coming up we politics tragics are going to go through withdrawal symptoms without Politics Live. |
| Tony Abbott will be delivering his Indigenous Blueprint at 9.30 in the House. | Tony Abbott will be delivering his Indigenous Blueprint at 9.30 in the House. |
| Compulsory reading, obvs. | Compulsory reading, obvs. |
| The encryption bill debate will come to the House in the first session this morning, where it will be amended as per request of the PJCIS committee. | The encryption bill debate will come to the House in the first session this morning, where it will be amended as per request of the PJCIS committee. |
| The government amendments will be moved in the House and then once it is amended (which it will be because Labor is onboard) then it goes to the Senate and then the security agencies can start sending out all those notices. | The government amendments will be moved in the House and then once it is amended (which it will be because Labor is onboard) then it goes to the Senate and then the security agencies can start sending out all those notices. |
| Joy. | Joy. |