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| Brexit: Juncker tells May deal could be clarified, but 'no room whatsoever for renegotiation' - Politics live | Brexit: Juncker tells May deal could be clarified, but 'no room whatsoever for renegotiation' - Politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The Commons Treasury committee has published a report (pdf) this morning criticising the government economic analysis of the Brexit deal (pdf) released last month. It says the analysis was inadequate, because it did not take into account the short-term impact of Brexit and it modelled the Chequers plan, not the actual plan for a long-term trade deal set out in the political declaration. | |
| Here is an extract from the committee’s summary | |
| The government provided economic analysis of the UK leaving the EU under five different scenarios. The white paper scenario, which is akin to the Chequers proposal, represents the most optimistic and generous reading of the political declaration, insofar as it is consistent with it at all. It does not represent the central or most likely outcome under the political declaration. Therefore, it cannot be used to inform parliament’s meaningful vote on the withdrawal agreement ... | |
| As requested over the summer, the chancellor agreed to provide the committee with economic analyses of the choices facing parliament, ahead of the meaningful vote on the final deal. Yet the information provided includes no analysis of the backstop, and there is no short-term analysis of any of the scenarios, including on public finances and on regional and sectoral job losses and gains. The government has only provided long-term analysis, which does not show how the economy will transition to a new trading relationship, or the path taken by inflation and unemployment. Although the Bank provided the committee with short-term analysis, the committee is disappointed that the Treasury did not provide all the evidence that the committee requested as there is no government short-term analysis of the deal upon which parliament will vote. | |
| And this is from the committee’s chair, the Conservative pro-European Nicky Morgan. She said: | |
| The aim of this report is not to recommend how MPs should vote, but to ensure that MPs are as informed as possible when it comes to choosing a division lobby. | |
| Yet the government has made this difficult to achieve. The committee is disappointed that the government has modelled its white paper, which represents the most optimistic reading of the political declaration, rather than a more realistic scenario. | |
| Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, told BBC News a few minutes ago that he thought Labour had a duty to table a motion of no confidence in the government. Jeremy Corbyn failed to do that, he said. Cable said that other opposition try to push the issue today. | Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, told BBC News a few minutes ago that he thought Labour had a duty to table a motion of no confidence in the government. Jeremy Corbyn failed to do that, he said. Cable said that other opposition try to push the issue today. |
| But, as a Lib Dem source has just confirmed, the smaller opposition parties cannot force a vote on a motion of no confidence. If the official opposition tables a motion of no confidence, by convention it has to debated. That is why what Corbyn chooses to do is crucial. | But, as a Lib Dem source has just confirmed, the smaller opposition parties cannot force a vote on a motion of no confidence. If the official opposition tables a motion of no confidence, by convention it has to debated. That is why what Corbyn chooses to do is crucial. |
| (The Lib Dems and other opposition parties are allocated days when they can choose topics for debate, and in theory they could use one of these for a no confidence debate. But they only take place very rarely, and it is the government that decides when they take place.) | (The Lib Dems and other opposition parties are allocated days when they can choose topics for debate, and in theory they could use one of these for a no confidence debate. But they only take place very rarely, and it is the government that decides when they take place.) |
| Here are some more lines from Jean-Claude Juncker’s speech to the European parliament this morning. | Here are some more lines from Jean-Claude Juncker’s speech to the European parliament this morning. |
| Juncker, the president of the European commission, described Brexit as the “surprise guest” at this week’s EU summit, starting on Thursday. He said: | Juncker, the president of the European commission, described Brexit as the “surprise guest” at this week’s EU summit, starting on Thursday. He said: |
| I’m surprised because we had reached an agreement on the 25th November together with the government of the United Kingdom. Notwithstanding that, it would appear that there are problems right at the end of the road. | I’m surprised because we had reached an agreement on the 25th November together with the government of the United Kingdom. Notwithstanding that, it would appear that there are problems right at the end of the road. |
| He also said the backstop was essential. | He also said the backstop was essential. |
| We have a common determination to do everything to be not in the situation one day to use that backstop. | We have a common determination to do everything to be not in the situation one day to use that backstop. |
| But we have to prepare: it’s necessary for the entire coherence of what we have agreed with Britain and it is necessary for Ireland. | But we have to prepare: it’s necessary for the entire coherence of what we have agreed with Britain and it is necessary for Ireland. |
| Ireland will never be left alone. | Ireland will never be left alone. |
| He has also posted this on Twitter about his meeting with Theresa May later. | He has also posted this on Twitter about his meeting with Theresa May later. |
| I will meet @theresa_may this evening in Brussels. I remain convinced that the #Brexit deal we have is the best - and only - deal possible. There is no room for renegotiation, but further clarifications are possible. | I will meet @theresa_may this evening in Brussels. I remain convinced that the #Brexit deal we have is the best - and only - deal possible. There is no room for renegotiation, but further clarifications are possible. |
| Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, has just told BBC News that he thinks it is “sensible” for Labour to delay tabling a no confidence motion until after Theresa May has presented her revised deal to parliament. | Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, has just told BBC News that he thinks it is “sensible” for Labour to delay tabling a no confidence motion until after Theresa May has presented her revised deal to parliament. |
| This is the position being taken by the Labour leadership, although more than 50 Labour parliamentarians want Jeremy Corbyn to call a no confidence vote this week, as does the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon. (See 9.08am.) | This is the position being taken by the Labour leadership, although more than 50 Labour parliamentarians want Jeremy Corbyn to call a no confidence vote this week, as does the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon. (See 9.08am.) |
| Sir John Major has criticised the “breathtaking ignorance” hard Brexiters and self-described “unionistis” over the Irish border and the backstop. | Sir John Major has criticised the “breathtaking ignorance” hard Brexiters and self-described “unionistis” over the Irish border and the backstop. |
| The former prime minister said the backstop was being used as a dangerous “bogus ploy” to crash the Brexit deal.“We should never forget that the Troubles began in the 1960s with the murder of customs officials at the north-south border,” he told guests at the inaugural Albert Memorial lecture in Longford, Ireland. | The former prime minister said the backstop was being used as a dangerous “bogus ploy” to crash the Brexit deal.“We should never forget that the Troubles began in the 1960s with the murder of customs officials at the north-south border,” he told guests at the inaugural Albert Memorial lecture in Longford, Ireland. |
| He hit out at those in parliament he described as “believing themselves to be unionists”. He said: | He hit out at those in parliament he described as “believing themselves to be unionists”. He said: |
| Some opinion has shown a breathtaking ignorance of the likely impact unsettling the Good Friday agreement will have on Ireland, north and south. | Some opinion has shown a breathtaking ignorance of the likely impact unsettling the Good Friday agreement will have on Ireland, north and south. |
| To them, the Irish demand for a backstop is a bogus ploy, a bogus ploy to keep the UK in a customs union. | To them, the Irish demand for a backstop is a bogus ploy, a bogus ploy to keep the UK in a customs union. |
| Those who mock and disparage the backstop should reflect on the risks of destroying it and stop relying on uninvented fanciful alternatives that for now exist absolutely nowhere. | Those who mock and disparage the backstop should reflect on the risks of destroying it and stop relying on uninvented fanciful alternatives that for now exist absolutely nowhere. |
| At stake is not only community relations but security and with it lives as well. | At stake is not only community relations but security and with it lives as well. |
| He said he hoped the common sense would prevail. | He said he hoped the common sense would prevail. |
| Whatever may happen at Westminster this week or later, I do not myself believe a majority of members of Parliament at Westminster will permit a hard border to become a reality. | Whatever may happen at Westminster this week or later, I do not myself believe a majority of members of Parliament at Westminster will permit a hard border to become a reality. |
| The reckless few ... are in a clear minority and for good reason. | The reckless few ... are in a clear minority and for good reason. |
| Theresa May is flying around EU capitals today in the search for concessions that might rescue her Brexit deal. But the early signs are not promising. Here are some of the key developments this morning. | Theresa May is flying around EU capitals today in the search for concessions that might rescue her Brexit deal. But the early signs are not promising. Here are some of the key developments this morning. |
| Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, has said that there is “no room whatsoever for renegotiation”. Addressing the European parliament this morning, he said: | Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, has said that there is “no room whatsoever for renegotiation”. Addressing the European parliament this morning, he said: |
| I will see Mrs May this evening and I have to say here in the parliament, as I did say before in this Parliament, the deal we have achieved is the best deal possible - it is the only deal possible ... | I will see Mrs May this evening and I have to say here in the parliament, as I did say before in this Parliament, the deal we have achieved is the best deal possible - it is the only deal possible ... |
| There is no room whatsoever for renegotiation, but of course there is room if used intelligently, there is room enough to give further clarifications and further interpretations without opening the withdrawal agreement. | There is no room whatsoever for renegotiation, but of course there is room if used intelligently, there is room enough to give further clarifications and further interpretations without opening the withdrawal agreement. |
| This will not happen: everyone has to note that the withdrawal agreement will not be reopened. | This will not happen: everyone has to note that the withdrawal agreement will not be reopened. |
| Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, has claimed that concessions are possible, because the EU has a habit of shifting at the last possible minute in negotiations. Speaking on the Today programme she said this happened in the talks with Greece during the financial crisis. She said: | Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, has claimed that concessions are possible, because the EU has a habit of shifting at the last possible minute in negotiations. Speaking on the Today programme she said this happened in the talks with Greece during the financial crisis. She said: |
| The EU is always in a position where it negotiates at the last possible moment. | The EU is always in a position where it negotiates at the last possible moment. |
| I think it would be very clear to colleagues, friends and neighbours in Europe, as well as the UK, that the deal as it stood was not going to get through the UK parliament. | I think it would be very clear to colleagues, friends and neighbours in Europe, as well as the UK, that the deal as it stood was not going to get through the UK parliament. |
| If we want to avoid a no-deal Brexit next March we need to go back to the drawing board to ensure that UK parliament has that democratic capability that it is demanding, quite rightly. That is why the prime minister is right to do this. | If we want to avoid a no-deal Brexit next March we need to go back to the drawing board to ensure that UK parliament has that democratic capability that it is demanding, quite rightly. That is why the prime minister is right to do this. |
| Leadsom has suggested that John Bercow, the Commons speaker, is biased against Brexit. Speaking on Today, Leadsom, a Brexiter, said: | Leadsom has suggested that John Bercow, the Commons speaker, is biased against Brexit. Speaking on Today, Leadsom, a Brexiter, said: |
| [Bercow has] made his views on Brexit on the record, and the problem with that of course is that the chair’s impartiality is absolutely essential. | [Bercow has] made his views on Brexit on the record, and the problem with that of course is that the chair’s impartiality is absolutely essential. |
| Asked whether she believed his position was “tainted”, she replied: | Asked whether she believed his position was “tainted”, she replied: |
| He’s made his views known on Brexit ... it’s a matter for him but nevertheless it’s a challenge and all colleagues nee d to form their own view of that. | He’s made his views known on Brexit ... it’s a matter for him but nevertheless it’s a challenge and all colleagues nee d to form their own view of that. |
| Lord Callanan, the Brexit minister, has said the UK is seeking “legally binding assurances” about the backstop. He was speaking to reporters as he arrived at the EU general affairs council meeting. | Lord Callanan, the Brexit minister, has said the UK is seeking “legally binding assurances” about the backstop. He was speaking to reporters as he arrived at the EU general affairs council meeting. |
| Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has challenged Jeremy Corbyn to table a no confidence motion in the government. Speaking on Today, she said: | Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has challenged Jeremy Corbyn to table a no confidence motion in the government. Speaking on Today, she said: |
| As I understand it, [Labour] don’t think the time is right for a motion of confidence. For goodness sake, if the time is not right now, when will the time be right? | As I understand it, [Labour] don’t think the time is right for a motion of confidence. For goodness sake, if the time is not right now, when will the time be right? |
| The clock is ticking, time is running out and if there is to be a different path found - and there must be a different path found to the one that Theresa May currently has the UK on - there isn’t time to lose. | The clock is ticking, time is running out and if there is to be a different path found - and there must be a different path found to the one that Theresa May currently has the UK on - there isn’t time to lose. |
| Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s Brexit spokesman, told the Today programme that May was going to Europe with a mindset that will “guarantee she comes back with nothing which is going to alleviate the fears” of his party. | Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s Brexit spokesman, told the Today programme that May was going to Europe with a mindset that will “guarantee she comes back with nothing which is going to alleviate the fears” of his party. |
| Here is our overnight story with the summary of yesterday’s developments. | Here is our overnight story with the summary of yesterday’s developments. |
| Brexit: desperate May dashes to continent in search for concessions | Brexit: desperate May dashes to continent in search for concessions |
| Here is the agenda for the day. | Here is the agenda for the day. |
| Morning: Theresa May is meeting Mark Rutte, the Dutch PM, in the Hague. Then she goes to Berlin to meet Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, before going to Brussels for talks with Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, and Donald Tusk, the European council president. | Morning: Theresa May is meeting Mark Rutte, the Dutch PM, in the Hague. Then she goes to Berlin to meet Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, before going to Brussels for talks with Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, and Donald Tusk, the European council president. |
| 9.30am: Unemployment figures are published. | 9.30am: Unemployment figures are published. |
| 11.30am: Philip Hammond, the chancellor, takes questions in the Commons. | 11.30am: Philip Hammond, the chancellor, takes questions in the Commons. |
| 12.45pm: MPs begin a three-hour emergency debate on the government’s management of the meaningful vote debate. | 12.45pm: MPs begin a three-hour emergency debate on the government’s management of the meaningful vote debate. |
| As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will mostly be focusing on Brexit. | As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will mostly be focusing on Brexit. |
| Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. | Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. |
| If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. |
| I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. | I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. |
| If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. | If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. |