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| Brexit: Corbyn says he will table no-confidence motion 'at the appropriate time' – Politics live | Brexit: Corbyn says he will table no-confidence motion 'at the appropriate time' – Politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Speaking in the Irish parliament, Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, also said that the UK could remove the threat of a no-deal Brexit by halting or delaying the process. He said: | |
| It remains in the hands of the UK to decide that we don’t end up in a no-deal scenario. | |
| The option is there to revoke article 50, the option is there to extend article 50, and while there may not be a majority for anything or at least any deal at the moment in the House of Commons, I do believe that there is a majority that the UK should not be plunged into a no-deal scenario. | |
| It is in their hands at any point in time to take the threat of no deal off the table, either by revoking article 50 or, if that is a step too far, by extending it. | |
| Turning back to the no confidence motion issue, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is accusing Labour of delaying tabling one because the party doesn’t want to then have to commit to backing a second referendum if Theresa May wins. | |
| Indeed. And getting them to a point where they can take this decision is one of the reasons for not hanging about on the no confidence motion. Time is running out and the PM’s tactic is clearly to run down the clock. The opposition must not allow that to happen. https://t.co/St7bocpB5o | |
| And the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges says there is a case for thinking Jeremy Corbyn would rather wait for May to win her Brexit vote before tabling a no confidence motion. This is plausible, because the DUP have signalled that they would vote against the government in a confidence motion if the Brexit deal gets passed. (They view the backstop as a greater threat to the union than a Corbyn government.) That is why some Tories like Mark Harper, the former chief whip, have said that if May does get her deal through, she will be unable to govern, because the confidence and supply agreement with the DUP will be over. | |
| Interestingly, the guys over at @novaramedia are currently telling me Corbyn won't push a No Confidence motion unless May's deal actually passes. At which point, the theory goes, the DUP will back Labour. | |
| A disorderly hard Brexit could see the loss of 100,000 jobs in Scotland, the country’s main economics thinktank, the Fraser of Allander Institute, has forecast. | |
| Citing the Bank of England’s worst case scenario that the economy would shrink by 8.9% after Brexit, the institute, based at the University of Strathclyde, said that would reverse recent steady growth in Scotland’s economy, now growing at a faster rate than the UK as a whole. | |
| It would have twice the impact on the Scottish economy than the 2008 financial crash, which saw tens of thousands of jobs cut in the finance sector and other industries. | |
| Data published today showed Scotland’s unemployment rate is now at a record low of 3.7%, versus a UK rate of 4.1%, although its economic inactivity rate is worse, at 22.1% versus 21% for the UK. | |
| The FAI’s forecast was released in advance of tomorrow’s publication of next year’s draft Scottish budget at Holyrood. The biggest political question facing Derek Mackay, the finance secretary, is whether to increase taxes on the highest earners and if so, by how much. | |
| Higher and top rate tax payers in Scotland already pay 41% on earnings, pensions and rent over £43,431 and 46% on income over £150,000. Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has raised the 40% higher rate threshold for the rest of the UK to £50,000 from April. | |
| Mackay has already ruled out increase the 40% threshold to match Hammond’s promise, He could freeze both thresholds, effectively increasing his tax take because of earnings growth, or increase it by inflation. If he did that, Scottish higher rate taxpayers earning £50,000 would pay £1,350 more a year than their neighbours elsewhere in the UK. | |
| Graeme Roy, the institute’s director, said: | |
| Whilst we don’t share the extremely negative view of some, we can say with some confidence that ‘no deal’ would be a substantial economic shock. Many businesses in Scotland are ill-prepared for such a disruptive change. | |
| In the Commons debate Ian Blackford, the SNP’s leader at Wesminster, is speaking now. He says pulling the vote yesterday was an act of “pathetic cowardice” by Theresa May. | In the Commons debate Ian Blackford, the SNP’s leader at Wesminster, is speaking now. He says pulling the vote yesterday was an act of “pathetic cowardice” by Theresa May. |
| The SNP’s Tommy Sheppard intervenes. He says May is engaged in a “sordid exercise to placate the ultra rightwing of her own party”. Blackford agrees. | The SNP’s Tommy Sheppard intervenes. He says May is engaged in a “sordid exercise to placate the ultra rightwing of her own party”. Blackford agrees. |
| Brussels will “finalise” their plans on no-deal planning in the next few weeks, Ireland’s taoiseach has said during leaders’ questions in the Dail. | Brussels will “finalise” their plans on no-deal planning in the next few weeks, Ireland’s taoiseach has said during leaders’ questions in the Dail. |
| Leo Varadkar indicated he could not flick the switch on Ireland’s contingency planning until the EU’s plans were complete and they “won’t be finalised until the middle of January”. | Leo Varadkar indicated he could not flick the switch on Ireland’s contingency planning until the EU’s plans were complete and they “won’t be finalised until the middle of January”. |
| He rejected calls from Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald to press the button on a referendum on the future place of Northern Ireland. | He rejected calls from Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald to press the button on a referendum on the future place of Northern Ireland. |
| Under the Good Friday agreement a poll in Ireland and Northern Ireland can be called at anytime to determine the future place of the state, whether in the UK or part of united Ireland. | Under the Good Friday agreement a poll in Ireland and Northern Ireland can be called at anytime to determine the future place of the state, whether in the UK or part of united Ireland. |
| Lidington says there are also those who want a second referendum to reverse Brexit. | Lidington says there are also those who want a second referendum to reverse Brexit. |
| They have to accept that this would certainly be divisive, but that it might not be decisive. | |
| When the issue comes back to the Commons, MPs will have hard decisions to take, he says. | When the issue comes back to the Commons, MPs will have hard decisions to take, he says. |
| Lidington says there are “home truths” that need to be faced, by some Tory and Labour MPs. | Lidington says there are “home truths” that need to be faced, by some Tory and Labour MPs. |
| Some argue the UK could just leave the EU and trade on WTO terms. But that would do serious harm to manufacturing sectors. A sudden severance of preferential trade access in four months time would be hugely damaging, he says. | Some argue the UK could just leave the EU and trade on WTO terms. But that would do serious harm to manufacturing sectors. A sudden severance of preferential trade access in four months time would be hugely damaging, he says. |
| He also says that, if people want a trade deal, the withdrawal agreement is an essential gateway to that deal. And a backstop will have to be part of the agreement, he says. | He also says that, if people want a trade deal, the withdrawal agreement is an essential gateway to that deal. And a backstop will have to be part of the agreement, he says. |
| Lidington says Corbyn needs to clarify his own Brexit position. | Lidington says Corbyn needs to clarify his own Brexit position. |
| He says Corbyn wants the UK to be in the customs union, but for the UK to be able to do its own trade deals. That is not possible, Lidington says. | He says Corbyn wants the UK to be in the customs union, but for the UK to be able to do its own trade deals. That is not possible, Lidington says. |
| He says Corbyn claims a customs union for the UK would solve the backstop problem. But it would not. | He says Corbyn claims a customs union for the UK would solve the backstop problem. But it would not. |
| And Corbyn wants a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, but without signing up to EU state aid rules. That is impossible too, Lidington says. | And Corbyn wants a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, but without signing up to EU state aid rules. That is impossible too, Lidington says. |
| Labour’s Hilary Benn, chair of the Brexit committee, asks if there will be a new debate when Theresa May comes back with her revised deal? Or will the Commons just go ahead with the last two days of the debate that has already happened. | Labour’s Hilary Benn, chair of the Brexit committee, asks if there will be a new debate when Theresa May comes back with her revised deal? Or will the Commons just go ahead with the last two days of the debate that has already happened. |
| Lidington says that is a fair question. He says the default position at the moment is that the debate will pick up where it left off (which would mean MPs who have already spoken cannot speak again). But he says it will depend on what is in the deal, and whether it is deemed necessary to have to start the debate all over again. | Lidington says that is a fair question. He says the default position at the moment is that the debate will pick up where it left off (which would mean MPs who have already spoken cannot speak again). But he says it will depend on what is in the deal, and whether it is deemed necessary to have to start the debate all over again. |
| Lidington says government has not decided to whether the Brexit debate will resume from where it left off, or whether a new debate will start from scratch. | Lidington says government has not decided to whether the Brexit debate will resume from where it left off, or whether a new debate will start from scratch. |
| Douglas Ross, a Conservative, asks if the delay means the immigration white paper will get published before the debate resumes. | Douglas Ross, a Conservative, asks if the delay means the immigration white paper will get published before the debate resumes. |
| Lidington says he spoke to Sajid Javid, the home secretary, about that today. He says Javid said he would be ready to publish that very soon. | Lidington says he spoke to Sajid Javid, the home secretary, about that today. He says Javid said he would be ready to publish that very soon. |
| Labour’s Stephen Doughty asks if Lidington or any member of the cabinet has seen the codicil to the deal that May is hoping to agree. (Earlier Doughty said that this has already been drafted - see 2.13pm.) | Labour’s Stephen Doughty asks if Lidington or any member of the cabinet has seen the codicil to the deal that May is hoping to agree. (Earlier Doughty said that this has already been drafted - see 2.13pm.) |
| Lidington says he cannot comment on cabinet discussions. | Lidington says he cannot comment on cabinet discussions. |
| Lidington says the government will bring this back for a vote by 21 January at the latest. | Lidington says the government will bring this back for a vote by 21 January at the latest. |
| That is a deadline, not a target, he says. | That is a deadline, not a target, he says. |
| Lidington says there is a wish in the Commons to bring this matter to a head. | Lidington says there is a wish in the Commons to bring this matter to a head. |
| He says the the remaining stages of the main Brexit debate, and the vote, have not been cancelled. They have just been deferred. And the business of the House motion going with it remains in force. | He says the the remaining stages of the main Brexit debate, and the vote, have not been cancelled. They have just been deferred. And the business of the House motion going with it remains in force. |
| The DUP MP Gavin Robinson says that only a “fundamental alternation of the text” of the Brexit deal in relation to the backstop will be acceptable to his party. And he says the DUP will want to see legal advice from the attorney general confirming that. | The DUP MP Gavin Robinson says that only a “fundamental alternation of the text” of the Brexit deal in relation to the backstop will be acceptable to his party. And he says the DUP will want to see legal advice from the attorney general confirming that. |
| Lidingon says May said yesterday that nothing as being ruled out. | Lidingon says May said yesterday that nothing as being ruled out. |
| Ivan Lewis, the independent MP, says ministers do not even know themselves whether they are telling the truth, because they are not being told the truth by the prime ministers. | Ivan Lewis, the independent MP, says ministers do not even know themselves whether they are telling the truth, because they are not being told the truth by the prime ministers. |
| Labour’s Angela Eagle says May has “shredded her credibility”. MPs find it impossible to believe what she says, Eagle says. | Labour’s Angela Eagle says May has “shredded her credibility”. MPs find it impossible to believe what she says, Eagle says. |
| Lidington says he does not accept that. | Lidington says he does not accept that. |