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Fact Checking the 2019 State of the Union Address Fact Checking the 2019 State of the Union Address
(35 minutes later)
The State of the Union takes place in the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives but, ultimately, President Trump has the home court advantage in what amounts to a one-way conversation with the American people. President Trump leaned hard on the strength of the American economy during his second State of the Union address on Tuesday, but with a blend of precise statistics and gauzy superlatives that are much more difficult to measure.
In two previous speeches from the House dais his 2017 address to the Joint Session of Congress and last year’s State of the Union Mr. Trump has used a softer tone than that in his biting Twitter feed. But in the lofty standards of a State of the Union speech, language and facts matter as much as the optics and tenor. He also returned to a theme that dominated the second year of his presidency a quest for a border wall with Mexico to cope with what he said is a crisis of crime and drugs in the United States caused by illegal immigration.
The two issues dominated his address, which in tone was more measured than his biting Twitter feed, but in substance contained numerous claims that were false or misleading.
Here’s what Mr. Trump has said so far and how it stacks up against the facts.Here’s what Mr. Trump has said so far and how it stacks up against the facts.
On Jan. 22, the 46th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s landmark Roe v. Wade decision, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat of New York, signed the Reproductive Health Act, which ensures a woman’s right to an abortion in New York if Roe v. Wade were to be overturned. It does not broadly allow abortions until shortly before birth, as Mr. Trump suggested. Instead, it will allow for an abortion after 24 weeks to protect the mother’s health or if the fetus is not viable. Under the prior law, abortions were allowed after 24 weeks only if the woman’s life was in jeopardy.
Intelligence officials have long said Russia was violating the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty by developing nuclear-capable missiles within the range banned by the pact. NATO allies have backed Washington’s assessment and repeatedly said Russia is in violation. Mr. Trump says the treaty is flawed because it does not include China. Many experts agree with him on that point — even those who lament the expected end of the arms control pact.
Mr. Trump said he had secured a $100 billion increase in NATO defense spending, after years of unfair treatment by NATO.
Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said last month that by 2020, allies will have increased their defense spending by $100 billion. European defense spending was on its way up before Mr. Trump took office, motivated in part by Russian aggression in Ukraine. But Mr. Trump’s pressure on allies has helped further drive up spending. Whether America was previously treated unfairly by NATO before is debatable. The Obama administration also complained about defense spending by European powers.
Many scientists agree that this goal is achievable, with medicines that greatly reduce the chances that people will transmit the virus or become infected. The Trump administration says it will seek additional funds in the president’s budget, but it is not clear whether they will be enough.
Prices for brand-name prescription drugs are often much lower in foreign countries than in the United States. But Mr. Trump did not say why: Health officials in other countries often negotiate prices with drug manufacturers. Mr. Trump embraced that idea as a candidate, but has dropped it as president.
The revised trade deal with Canada and Mexico does include provisions that are intended to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States — including minimum wage provisions for some auto manufacturing. But some economists have said those provisions could ultimately push more manufacturing — and jobs — outside of North America. The deal does allow American farmers to sell more dairy products to Canada. But trade pact has yet to be approved by Congress, and both Democrats and Republicans say that is unlikely to happen without significant changes.
Many of the recent changes to immigration policy introduced by the White House have targeted people who are trying to enter the country legally, such as people who are seeking asylum. The changes in asylum policy have limited the number of people who can apply for asylum each day and restricted the places where they can apply.
This figure does not reflect current statistics, and while experts agree is it a serious problem, there is no definitive data available to establish how often sexual assaults against migrant women occurs. The statistic appears to come from a 2010 report that used data from a book that had been written more than a decade earlier, according to The Washington Post.
Since Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on certain imports from China — and imported steel and aluminum from around the world — federal tariff revenues have increased. Revenues from customs duties, which include tariffs, rose by $13 billion in the third quarter of 2018 compared with a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported. Technically, that money is paid by Americans who bring the goods across the border, and it is often passed on to American consumers in the form of higher prices.
Mr. Trump has placed punishing tariffs on Chinese goods and imposed other restrictions in an effort to force Beijing to change its trade practices. The trade war has pushed China to the negotiating table and the two countries are trying to reach a trade deal by March 2.Mr. Trump has placed punishing tariffs on Chinese goods and imposed other restrictions in an effort to force Beijing to change its trade practices. The trade war has pushed China to the negotiating table and the two countries are trying to reach a trade deal by March 2.
Border apprehensions decreased by 91 percent in the San Diego sector from the 1994 fiscal year, right after the original border fencing was completed, to the 2018 fiscal year. But, according to the Congressional Research Service, that fence alone “did not have a discernible impact” on the number of immigrants crossing the border into the United States illegally. Instead, a combination of additional staffing and new technology is what proved effective — in addition to the fencing. Over all, border crossings have been declining for nearly two decades even in areas without barriers.Border apprehensions decreased by 91 percent in the San Diego sector from the 1994 fiscal year, right after the original border fencing was completed, to the 2018 fiscal year. But, according to the Congressional Research Service, that fence alone “did not have a discernible impact” on the number of immigrants crossing the border into the United States illegally. Instead, a combination of additional staffing and new technology is what proved effective — in addition to the fencing. Over all, border crossings have been declining for nearly two decades even in areas without barriers.
Under the American justice system, defendants are innocent until proven guilty. Wilbur Martinez-Guzman, a citizen of Guatemala who American officials believe has been living in the country illegally, has been charged with the murders of Gerald David, 81 and his wife, Sharon David, 80. But he has neither confessed to them nor been convicted of the crimes.Under the American justice system, defendants are innocent until proven guilty. Wilbur Martinez-Guzman, a citizen of Guatemala who American officials believe has been living in the country illegally, has been charged with the murders of Gerald David, 81 and his wife, Sharon David, 80. But he has neither confessed to them nor been convicted of the crimes.
At the end of January, a new caravan of thousands of migrants from Central America was headed north, and some of the travelers said they intended to try to cross into the United States. But many in the caravan have said they plan to remain in Mexico, thanks in part to policies put in place by the new Mexican government. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made it easier for Central Americans to get visas and work in Mexico. President Trump’s warnings of an imminent invasion from new caravans is overstated.At the end of January, a new caravan of thousands of migrants from Central America was headed north, and some of the travelers said they intended to try to cross into the United States. But many in the caravan have said they plan to remain in Mexico, thanks in part to policies put in place by the new Mexican government. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made it easier for Central Americans to get visas and work in Mexico. President Trump’s warnings of an imminent invasion from new caravans is overstated.
The number of illegal border crossings have been declining for two decades. Customs and Border Protection arrested more than 50,000 people trying to illegally cross the southwestern border each month in October, November and December. While that is an uptick from the monthly average in the fiscal year that ended in September 2017, the numbers pale in comparison to early 2000s, when border arrests averaged about 100,000 per month.The number of illegal border crossings have been declining for two decades. Customs and Border Protection arrested more than 50,000 people trying to illegally cross the southwestern border each month in October, November and December. While that is an uptick from the monthly average in the fiscal year that ended in September 2017, the numbers pale in comparison to early 2000s, when border arrests averaged about 100,000 per month.
A record number of families have tried to cross the border in recent months, overwhelming officials at the border and creating a new kind of humanitarian crisis.A record number of families have tried to cross the border in recent months, overwhelming officials at the border and creating a new kind of humanitarian crisis.
Matthew Charles is one of the most recognized faces of the federal criminal justice overhaul; however, there is no way to know that he is the first person released as a result of the First Step Act, which Mr. Trump signed into law in December. Mr. Charles was sentenced in 1996 to 35 years in prison for selling crack cocaine. He was released early in 2016 and then was sent back to prison last year after a court realized he fell short of the requirements for early release. Politicians in both parties seized on his story as a leading example for the need to reform federal sentencing policies.Matthew Charles is one of the most recognized faces of the federal criminal justice overhaul; however, there is no way to know that he is the first person released as a result of the First Step Act, which Mr. Trump signed into law in December. Mr. Charles was sentenced in 1996 to 35 years in prison for selling crack cocaine. He was released early in 2016 and then was sent back to prison last year after a court realized he fell short of the requirements for early release. Politicians in both parties seized on his story as a leading example for the need to reform federal sentencing policies.
The economy has added 454,000 jobs manufacturing jobs since January 2017. That is closely comparable to the pace of job creation during some two-year periods during the Obama administration, and significantly slower than the pace of job creation in manufacturing in the 1990s.The economy has added 454,000 jobs manufacturing jobs since January 2017. That is closely comparable to the pace of job creation during some two-year periods during the Obama administration, and significantly slower than the pace of job creation in manufacturing in the 1990s.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that since January 2017, when Mr. Trump took office, the economy has added 4.9 million jobs.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that since January 2017, when Mr. Trump took office, the economy has added 4.9 million jobs.
Under pressure from the White House, many drug companies delayed or rolled back price increases last year. But dozens of drug manufacturers raised prices on hundreds of medicines this year, in defiance of the president’s wishes. New cancer drugs, for instance cost on average more than $100,000 a year.Under pressure from the White House, many drug companies delayed or rolled back price increases last year. But dozens of drug manufacturers raised prices on hundreds of medicines this year, in defiance of the president’s wishes. New cancer drugs, for instance cost on average more than $100,000 a year.
The Trump administration has slowed the pace of adopting new rules, and it has moved to roll back some existing or proposed federal regulations, particularly in the area of environmental protection. The White House claimed that as of October 2018, a total of $33 billion worth of future regulator costs had been eliminated. But experts say that the scale of the rollbacks in the Trump era still does not exceed massive cuts in federal rules during the Carter and Reagan administrations, when rules governing airline, truck and rail transportation were wiped off the books, among other changes.The Trump administration has slowed the pace of adopting new rules, and it has moved to roll back some existing or proposed federal regulations, particularly in the area of environmental protection. The White House claimed that as of October 2018, a total of $33 billion worth of future regulator costs had been eliminated. But experts say that the scale of the rollbacks in the Trump era still does not exceed massive cuts in federal rules during the Carter and Reagan administrations, when rules governing airline, truck and rail transportation were wiped off the books, among other changes.
While the total number of people working in the United States is higher than ever, it is not because of the president’s policies. It is because more people than ever live in the United States. The more relevant way to look at this is the labor force participation rate, which measures the percentage of people working as a portion of the population. That is nowhere near a record.While the total number of people working in the United States is higher than ever, it is not because of the president’s policies. It is because more people than ever live in the United States. The more relevant way to look at this is the labor force participation rate, which measures the percentage of people working as a portion of the population. That is nowhere near a record.
The American economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, the most recent available data. Growth in Latvia and Poland was almost twice as fast. Same for China and India. Even the troubled Greek economy posted stronger growth. And a wide range of economic analysts estimate that the growth of the American economy slowed in the fourth quarter, and slowed even further in the first month of 2019.The American economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, the most recent available data. Growth in Latvia and Poland was almost twice as fast. Same for China and India. Even the troubled Greek economy posted stronger growth. And a wide range of economic analysts estimate that the growth of the American economy slowed in the fourth quarter, and slowed even further in the first month of 2019.
America has long been considered the world’s superstar, a status that predates Mr. Trump’s time in office, going back to the end of World War II. And while the American economy has been growing during Mr. Trump’s presidency, it is a continuation of the trend since June 2009.America has long been considered the world’s superstar, a status that predates Mr. Trump’s time in office, going back to the end of World War II. And while the American economy has been growing during Mr. Trump’s presidency, it is a continuation of the trend since June 2009.
The number of women in the work force reached a new high in December, although it then declined slightly in January. But that’s a result of population growth. The percentage of American women with jobs peaked in 2000 at 58 percent. As of January, it was just 55.2 percent.The number of women in the work force reached a new high in December, although it then declined slightly in January. But that’s a result of population growth. The percentage of American women with jobs peaked in 2000 at 58 percent. As of January, it was just 55.2 percent.
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