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State of the Union Fact Check: What Trump Got Right and Wrong State of the Union Fact Check: What Trump Got Right and Wrong
(35 minutes later)
President Trump leaned hard on the strength of the American economy during his second State of the Union address on Tuesday, but with a blend of precise statistics and gauzy superlatives that are much more difficult to measure.President Trump leaned hard on the strength of the American economy during his second State of the Union address on Tuesday, but with a blend of precise statistics and gauzy superlatives that are much more difficult to measure.
He also returned to a theme that dominated the second year of his presidency — a quest for a border wall with Mexico to cope with what he said is a crisis of crime and drugs in the United States caused by illegal immigration.He also returned to a theme that dominated the second year of his presidency — a quest for a border wall with Mexico to cope with what he said is a crisis of crime and drugs in the United States caused by illegal immigration.
The two issues dominated his address, which in tone was more measured than his biting Twitter feed, but in substance contained numerous claims that were false or misleading.The two issues dominated his address, which in tone was more measured than his biting Twitter feed, but in substance contained numerous claims that were false or misleading.
Here’s what Mr. Trump said and how it stacks up against the facts. Here is what Mr. Trump said and how it stacked up against the facts.
The United States has been the largest producer of oil and gas in the world since 2013, a trend that began under the Obama administration thanks in large part to advances in shale drilling techniques. Oil and gas production has continued to rise over the past two years as Mr. Trump has moved to relax regulations on fossil-fuel producers. The United States produced nearly 11 million barrels per day of crude in 2018, a record. “The U.S. economy is growing almost twice as fast today as when I took office, and we are considered far and away the hottest economy anywhere in the world.”
The number of Americans in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program decreased by more than 3.5 million between February 2017 — Mr. Trump’s first full month in office — to September 2018, according to the latest available data. By comparison, the number of people receiving the aid decreased by 5 million from June 2015 to January 2017. The American economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018. Growth in Latvia and Poland was almost twice as fast. Same for China and India. Even the troubled Greek economy posted stronger growth. And a wide range of economic analysts estimate that the growth of the American economy slowed in the fourth quarter, and slowed even further in the first month of 2019.
In an interview last month, Governor Northam said that he supported a late-term abortion bill that would loosen restrictions on the procedure, and allow women to consult with a doctor on an abortion up to, but not including, the time of birth. “We recently imposed tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods — and now our Treasury is receiving billions and billions of dollars.”
The governor, a pediatric neurologist, also talked about some of the dangerous medical emergencies that pregnant women could face, such as carrying a nonviable fetus. He said that in such a case, the mother would deliver the infant and then, “the infant would be resuscitated if that’s what the mother and the family desired, and then a discussion would ensue between the physicians and the mother.” While Mr. Northam was talking about an end-of-life care discussion in the case of a child that would not live, Republicans seized on his remarks as evidence that Mr. Northam supported killing babies after their birth.
One of Mr. Trump’s foreign policy goals is to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan, where the United States has been at war for nearly 18 years. He has appointed Zalmay Khalilzad as special representative for Afghanistan to help negotiate a cease-fire agreement and get the Taliban to talk directly with the Afghan government. But President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan, worried that Mr. Trump is handing the country back to the Taliban, is already frustrated with Mr. Khalilzad’s negotiations and is trying to slow the planned troop withdrawal
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In October 2000, two Al Qaeda suicide bombers attacked the U.S.S. Cole, an American destroyer, off the coast of Yemen — killing 17 sailors and wounding 39 others. American officials believe that one of the suspected architects of that attack, Jamal al-Badawi, was killed in Yemen by an American airstrike on Jan. 1. Mr. Badawi was indicted by a federal grand jury in 2003 over his role in the attack, and he was convicted by a Yemeni court and sentenced to death in 2004. He escaped from a Yemeni jail in 2006.
American troops deployed to Afghanistan on Oct. 7, 2001, to begin Operation Enduring Freedom — the American military and NATO mission to rid Afghanistan of Al Qaeda. But Afghanistan is not technically considered part of the Middle East — it is in southwest Asia. The United States invaded Iraq, which is in the Middle East, in March 2003 — nearly 16 years ago.
The Defense Department reports that the Islamic State now controls only around 20 square miles of territory in Syria, down from 34,000 in 2014. But many of the gains against the militant Sunni extremist caliphate began under President Barack Obama, with the Trump administration continuing Obama administration policy. And the top American military commander in the Middle East told a Senate hearing on Tuesday that the Islamic State could return if the United States and its allies abandon the fight. In December, Mr. Trump said announced he was withdrawing American troops from Syria.
This is an updated version of Mr. Trump’s assertions during the campaign in 2016 that the wars in the Middle East have cost $6 trillion. But then as now, he is citing the high-end estimate of credible analyses of spending associated with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is confusing money that has been spent with money that researchers say will be spent. A 2016 Brown University study put the cost of the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Pakistan between 2001 and 2016 at $3.6 trillion. Adding in money for war spending through 2017, the total reached $4.79 trillion. But the figure also included future obligations for veterans medical and disability costs through 2053.
Mr. Trump frequently says that thanks to his efforts, the United States has “a very good relationship” with North Korea. He also frequently mentions the flowery letters he has received from Mr. Kim. The two do seem to have forged a personal relationship that no other American president has sought. But the United States remains technically at war with North Korea, and intelligence leaders have concluded that Mr. Kim has no desire to give up the country’s nuclear weapons.
El Paso was never one of the most dangerous cities in the United States, and crime has been declining in cities across the country - not just El Paso - for reasons that have nothing to do with border fencing. In 2008, before border barriers had been completed in El Paso, the city had the second-lowest violent crime rate among more than 20 similarly sized cities. In 2010, after the fencing went up, it held that place.
This has become a popular talking point among American conservatives. It is true that the rule of Mr. Maduro has brought Venezuela to economic ruin. Inflation is at astronomical rates, and ordinary people are struggling to get basic food and health supplies. Three million citizens have fled. Some of the collapse can be traced back to Mr. Maduro’s economic policies, which do fall under the broad label of “socialism.” But analysts say that corruption, the lack of rule of law and the absence of democracy — all the hallmarks of a dictatorship — have played just as big or larger roles. There are many nations in South America, Europe and other parts of the world that have adopted their versions of socialist economic policies and had positive outcomes.
In 2016, at the end of the Obama administration, there was no sign that the United States and North Korea were about to go to war, though Pyongyang had been conducting nuclear tests and President Barack Obama had continued economic sanctions. In Mr. Trump’s first year in office, he increased tensions with North Korea by attacking its leader, Kim Jong-un, in a series of Twitter posts, which prompted hostile statements from Pyongyang. Mr. Trump wrote that North Korea’s actions would be met with “fire and fury” and called Mr. Kim “Little Rocket Man.” Analysts said at the time that the chances of war between the two nations had grown because of these exchanges.
In May, North Korea released three imprisoned Korean-American men in what was seen as a gesture of good will ahead of a historic presidential summit meeting. After Mr. Trump met with Mr. Kim, in Singapore, North Korean security officers detained an American man who was caught trying to sneak into the country, but officials quickly released him.
On Jan. 22, the 46th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s landmark Roe v. Wade decision, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat of New York, signed the Reproductive Health Act, which ensures a woman’s right to an abortion in New York if Roe v. Wade were to be overturned. It does not broadly allow abortions until shortly before birth, as Mr. Trump suggested. Instead, it will allow for an abortion after 24 weeks to protect the mother’s health or if the fetus is not viable. Under the prior law, abortions were allowed after 24 weeks only if the woman’s life was in jeopardy.
Intelligence officials have long said Russia was violating the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty by developing nuclear-capable missiles within the range banned by the pact. NATO allies have backed Washington’s assessment and repeatedly said Russia is in violation. Mr. Trump says the treaty is flawed because it does not include China. Many experts agree with him on that point — even those who lament the expected end of the arms control pact.
Mr. Trump said he had secured a $100 billion increase in NATO defense spending, after years of unfair treatment by NATO.
Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said last month that by 2020, allies will have increased their defense spending by $100 billion. European defense spending was on its way up before Mr. Trump took office, motivated in part by Russian aggression in Ukraine. But Mr. Trump’s pressure on allies has helped further drive up spending. Whether America was previously treated unfairly by NATO before is debatable. The Obama administration also complained about defense spending by European powers.
Many scientists agree that this goal is achievable, with medicines that greatly reduce the chances that people will transmit the virus or become infected. The Trump administration says it will seek additional funds in the president’s budget, but it is not clear whether they will be enough.
Prices for brand-name prescription drugs are often much lower in foreign countries than in the United States. But Mr. Trump did not say why: Health officials in other countries often negotiate prices with drug manufacturers. Mr. Trump embraced that idea as a candidate, but has dropped it as president.
The revised trade deal with Canada and Mexico does include provisions that are intended to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States — including minimum wage provisions for some auto manufacturing. But some economists have said those provisions could ultimately push more manufacturing — and jobs — outside of North America. The deal does allow American farmers to sell more dairy products to Canada. But trade pact has yet to be approved by Congress, and both Democrats and Republicans say that is unlikely to happen without significant changes.
Many of the recent changes to immigration policy introduced by the White House have targeted people who are trying to enter the country legally, such as people who are seeking asylum. The changes in asylum policy have limited the number of people who can apply for asylum each day and restricted the places where they can apply.
This figure does not reflect current statistics, and while experts agree is it a serious problem, there is no definitive data available to establish how often sexual assaults against migrant women occurs. The statistic appears to come from a 2010 report that used data from a book that had been written more than a decade earlier, according to The Washington Post.
Since Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on certain imports from China — and imported steel and aluminum from around the world — federal tariff revenues have increased. Revenues from customs duties, which include tariffs, rose by $13 billion in the third quarter of 2018 compared with a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported. Technically, that money is paid by Americans who bring the goods across the border, and it is often passed on to American consumers in the form of higher prices.Since Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on certain imports from China — and imported steel and aluminum from around the world — federal tariff revenues have increased. Revenues from customs duties, which include tariffs, rose by $13 billion in the third quarter of 2018 compared with a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported. Technically, that money is paid by Americans who bring the goods across the border, and it is often passed on to American consumers in the form of higher prices.
Mr. Trump has placed punishing tariffs on Chinese goods and imposed other restrictions in an effort to force Beijing to change its trade practices. The trade war has pushed China to the negotiating table and the two countries are trying to reach a trade deal by March 2. “My administration has cut more regulations in a short period of time than any other administration during its entire tenure.”
Border apprehensions decreased by 91 percent in the San Diego sector from the 1994 fiscal year, right after the original border fencing was completed, to the 2018 fiscal year. But, according to the Congressional Research Service, that fence alone “did not have a discernible impact” on the number of immigrants crossing the border into the United States illegally. Instead, a combination of additional staffing and new technology is what proved effective — in addition to the fencing. Over all, border crossings have been declining for nearly two decades even in areas without barriers. The Trump administration has slowed the pace of adopting new rules, and it has moved to roll back some existing or proposed federal regulations, particularly in the area of environmental protection. The White House claimed that as of October, a total of $33 billion worth of future regulator costs had been eliminated. But experts say the scale of the rollbacks in the Trump era still does not exceed massive cuts in federal rules during the Carter and Reagan administrations, when rules governing airline, truck and rail transportation were wiped off the books, among other changes.
Under the American justice system, defendants are innocent until proven guilty. Wilbur Martinez-Guzman, a citizen of Guatemala who American officials believe has been living in the country illegally, has been charged with the murders of Gerald David, 81 and his wife, Sharon David, 80. But he has neither confessed to them nor been convicted of the crimes. “We have created 5.3 million new jobs and importantly added 600,000 new manufacturing jobs — something which almost everyone said was impossible to do, but the fact is, we are just getting started.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that since January 2017, when Mr. Trump took office, the economy has added 4.9 million jobs, including 454,000 jobs manufacturing jobs. Far from being “impossible,” that is closely comparable to the pace of job creation during some two-year periods during the Obama administration, and significantly slower than the pace of job creation in manufacturing in the 1990s.
Wages were “growing for blue collar workers, who I promised to fight for. They are growing faster than anyone thought possible.”
Wages are rising faster for construction and manufacturing workers than workers in service occupations, according to the Labor Department.
“More people are working now than at any time in our history.”
While the total number of people working in the United States is higher than ever, it is not because of the president’s policies. It is because more people than ever live in the United States.
“The border city of El Paso, Texas, used to have extremely high rates of violent crime — one of the highest in the entire country, and considered one of our nation’s most dangerous cities. Now, immediately upon its building, with a powerful barrier in place, El Paso is one of the safest cities in our country.”
El Paso was never one of the most dangerous cities in the United States, and crime has been declining in cities across the country — not just El Paso — for reasons that have nothing to do with border fencing. In 2008, before border barriers had been completed in El Paso, the city had the second-lowest violent crime rate among more than 20 similarly sized cities. In 2010, after the fencing went up, it held that place.
“San Diego used to have the most illegal border crossings in our country. In response, a strong security wall was put in place. This powerful barrier almost completely ended illegal crossings.”
Border apprehensions decreased by 91 percent in the San Diego sector between the 1994 fiscal year, right after the original border fencing was completed, to the 2018 fiscal year. But, according to the Congressional Research Service, that fence alone “did not have a discernible impact” on the number of immigrants crossing the border into the United States illegally.
“As we speak, large, organized caravans are on the march to the United States.”
At the end of January, a new caravan of thousands of migrants from Central America was headed north, and some of the travelers said they intended to try to cross into the United States. But many in the caravan have said they plan to remain in Mexico, thanks in part to policies put in place by the new Mexican government. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made it easier for Central Americans to get visas and work in Mexico. President Trump’s warnings of an imminent invasion from new caravans is overstated.At the end of January, a new caravan of thousands of migrants from Central America was headed north, and some of the travelers said they intended to try to cross into the United States. But many in the caravan have said they plan to remain in Mexico, thanks in part to policies put in place by the new Mexican government. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made it easier for Central Americans to get visas and work in Mexico. President Trump’s warnings of an imminent invasion from new caravans is overstated.
The number of illegal border crossings have been declining for two decades. Customs and Border Protection arrested more than 50,000 people trying to illegally cross the southwestern border each month in October, November and December. While that is an uptick from the monthly average in the fiscal year that ended in September 2017, the numbers pale in comparison to early 2000s, when border arrests averaged about 100,000 per month. “I hope you can pass the U.S.M.C.A. into law, so we can bring back our manufacturing jobs in even greater numbers, expanding American agriculture, protecting intellectual property, and ensuring that more cars are proudly stamped with the four beautiful words: Made in the USA.”
A record number of families have tried to cross the border in recent months, overwhelming officials at the border and creating a new kind of humanitarian crisis. The revised trade deal with Canada and Mexico does include provisions that are intended to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States — including minimum wage provisions for some auto manufacturing. But some economists have said those provisions could ultimately push more manufacturing — and jobs — outside of North America. The deal does allow American farmers to sell more dairy products to Canada. But trade pact has yet to be approved by Congress, and both Democrats and Republicans say that is unlikely to happen without significant changes.
Matthew Charles is one of the most recognized faces of the federal criminal justice overhaul; however, there is no way to know that he is the first person released as a result of the First Step Act, which Mr. Trump signed into law in December. Mr. Charles was sentenced in 1996 to 35 years in prison for selling crack cocaine. He was released early in 2016 and then was sent back to prison last year after a court realized he fell short of the requirements for early release. Politicians in both parties seized on his story as a leading example for the need to reform federal sentencing policies. "When I took office, ISIS controlled more than 20,000 square miles in Iraq and Syria. Just two years ago. Today, we have liberated virtually all of the territory from the grip of these bloodthirsty monsters.”
The economy has added 454,000 jobs manufacturing jobs since January 2017. That is closely comparable to the pace of job creation during some two-year periods during the Obama administration, and significantly slower than the pace of job creation in manufacturing in the 1990s. The Defense Department reports that the Islamic State now controls only around 20 square miles of territory in Syria, down from 34,000 in 2014. But many of the gains against the Sunni extremist caliphate began under President Barack Obama, with the Trump administration continuing Obama administration policy. And the top American military commander in the Middle East told a Senate hearing on Tuesday that the Islamic State could return if the United States and its allies abandon the fight. In December, Mr. Trump said announced he was withdrawing American troops from Syria.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that since January 2017, when Mr. Trump took office, the economy has added 4.9 million jobs. “We condemn the brutality of the Maduro regime, whose socialist policies have turned that nation from being the wealthiest in South America into a state of abject poverty and despair.”
Under pressure from the White House, many drug companies delayed or rolled back price increases last year. But dozens of drug manufacturers raised prices on hundreds of medicines this year, in defiance of the president’s wishes. New cancer drugs, for instance cost on average more than $100,000 a year. This has become a popular talking point among American conservatives. It is true that the rule of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela has brought that country to economic ruin. Inflation is at astronomical rates, and ordinary people are struggling to get basic food and health supplies. Three million citizens have fled. Some of the collapse can be traced back to Mr. Maduro’s economic policies, which do fall under the broad label of “socialism.” But analysts say that corruption, the lack of rule of law and the absence of democracy — all the hallmarks of a dictatorship — have played just as big or larger roles.
The Trump administration has slowed the pace of adopting new rules, and it has moved to roll back some existing or proposed federal regulations, particularly in the area of environmental protection. The White House claimed that as of October 2018, a total of $33 billion worth of future regulator costs had been eliminated. But experts say that the scale of the rollbacks in the Trump era still does not exceed massive cuts in federal rules during the Carter and Reagan administrations, when rules governing airline, truck and rail transportation were wiped off the books, among other changes. “If I had not been elected president of the United States, we would right now, in my opinion, be in a major war with North Korea."
While the total number of people working in the United States is higher than ever, it is not because of the president’s policies. It is because more people than ever live in the United States. The more relevant way to look at this is the labor force participation rate, which measures the percentage of people working as a portion of the population. That is nowhere near a record. In 2016, at the end of the Obama administration, there was no sign that the United States and North Korea were about to go to war, though Pyongyang had been conducting nuclear tests and Mr. Obama had continued economic sanctions. In Mr. Trump’s first year in office, he increased tensions with North Korea by attacking its leader, Kim Jong-un, in a series of Twitter posts, which prompted hostile statements from Pyongyang. Mr. Trump wrote that North Korea’s actions would be met with “fire and fury” and called Mr. Kim “Little Rocket Man.” Analysts said at the time that the chances of war between the two nations had grown because of these exchanges.
The American economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, the most recent available data. Growth in Latvia and Poland was almost twice as fast. Same for China and India. Even the troubled Greek economy posted stronger growth. And a wide range of economic analysts estimate that the growth of the American economy slowed in the fourth quarter, and slowed even further in the first month of 2019. “Lawmakers in New York cheered with delight upon the passage of legislation that would allow a baby to be ripped from the mother’s womb moments from birth.”
America has long been considered the world’s superstar, a status that predates Mr. Trump’s time in office, going back to the end of World War II. And while the American economy has been growing during Mr. Trump’s presidency, it is a continuation of the trend since June 2009. On Jan. 22, the 46th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s landmark Roe v. Wade decision, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat of New York, signed the Reproductive Health Act. The new law ensures a woman’s right to an abortion in New York if Roe v. Wade were to be overturned. It does not broadly allow abortions until shortly before birth, as Mr. Trump suggested. Instead, it will allow for an abortion after 24 weeks to protect the mother’s health or if the fetus is not viable. Under the prior law, abortions were allowed after 24 weeks only if the woman’s life was in jeopardy.
The number of women in the work force reached a new high in December, although it then declined slightly in January. But that’s a result of population growth. The percentage of American women with jobs peaked in 2000 at 58 percent. As of January, it was just 55.2 percent. “We had the case of the governor of Virginia where he stated he would execute a baby after birth.”
In an interview last month, Gov. Ralph Northam said that he supported a late-term abortion bill that would loosen restrictions on the procedure, and allow women to consult with a doctor on an abortion up to, but not including, the time of birth.
The governor, a pediatric neurologist, also talked about some of the dangerous medical emergencies that pregnant women could face, such as carrying a nonviable fetus. He said that in such a case, the mother would deliver the infant and then, “the infant would be resuscitated if that’s what the mother and the family desired, and then a discussion would ensue between the physicians and the mother.” While Mr. Northam was talking about an end-of-life care discussion in the case of a child that would not live, Republicans seized on his remarks as evidence that Mr. Northam supported killing babies after their birth.
Reporting was contributed by Eileen Sullivan, Michael Tackett, Linda Qiu, Edward Wong, Eric Lipton, Eric Schmitt, Adam Liptak, Binyamin Appelbaum, Caitlin Dickerson, Charlie Savage, Coral Davenport, Glenn Thrush, Helene Cooper, Jim Tankersley, Julian E. Barnes, Katie Benner, Matt Phillips, Robert Pear and Thomas Gibbons-Neff.
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