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| May quitting will not get Brexit deal through, say Eurosceptics | May quitting will not get Brexit deal through, say Eurosceptics |
| (1 day later) | |
| Eurosceptics have told Theresa May that defeat on her Brexit deal looks certain without more concessions from Brussels, even if she offers to quit in exchange for them voting to get it over the line. | Eurosceptics have told Theresa May that defeat on her Brexit deal looks certain without more concessions from Brussels, even if she offers to quit in exchange for them voting to get it over the line. |
| The prime minister’s position is looking increasingly precarious, as cabinet ministers have floated the idea of forcing her to name a date for her departure if this could persuade hardline Eurosceptics to back her deal. | The prime minister’s position is looking increasingly precarious, as cabinet ministers have floated the idea of forcing her to name a date for her departure if this could persuade hardline Eurosceptics to back her deal. |
| Some leave supporters may be tempted to go for this option to allow a Brexiter such as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove or Dominic Raab to take over and have a go at negotiating the second phase – or the future relationship with the EU. | Some leave supporters may be tempted to go for this option to allow a Brexiter such as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove or Dominic Raab to take over and have a go at negotiating the second phase – or the future relationship with the EU. |
| However, the idea of voting for May’s deal in return for her exit was outright rejected by other Brexit supporters, with David Davis, a former Brexit secretary, saying it “will not get the vote through”. | However, the idea of voting for May’s deal in return for her exit was outright rejected by other Brexit supporters, with David Davis, a former Brexit secretary, saying it “will not get the vote through”. |
| “You can change the leader but you can’t change the numbers,” Davis told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show. “We have got to focus on the issue here … Nothing else will work.” | “You can change the leader but you can’t change the numbers,” Davis told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show. “We have got to focus on the issue here … Nothing else will work.” |
| Some of the most hardline leave backers are implacably opposed to the deal unless the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, secures a legally binding way out of the Irish backstop, which as it stands could keep the UK in a permanent customs union with the EU. | Some of the most hardline leave backers are implacably opposed to the deal unless the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, secures a legally binding way out of the Irish backstop, which as it stands could keep the UK in a permanent customs union with the EU. |
| Writing for the Sunday Telegraph, Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, and Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party, described defeat for the deal as “inevitable” and predicted a “three-figure majority” against the deal – a similar position to last time. | Writing for the Sunday Telegraph, Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, and Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party, described defeat for the deal as “inevitable” and predicted a “three-figure majority” against the deal – a similar position to last time. |
| “An unchanged withdrawal agreement will be defeated firmly by a sizeable proportion of Conservatives and the DUP if it is again presented to the Commons,” they wrote. “If with the DUP just half of previous Conservative opponents vote against the deal, a three-figure majority would be expected.” | “An unchanged withdrawal agreement will be defeated firmly by a sizeable proportion of Conservatives and the DUP if it is again presented to the Commons,” they wrote. “If with the DUP just half of previous Conservative opponents vote against the deal, a three-figure majority would be expected.” |
| Brexit supporters were this weekend gearing up to blame Brussels for failing to offer enough concessions to get the deal over the line. | Brexit supporters were this weekend gearing up to blame Brussels for failing to offer enough concessions to get the deal over the line. |
| Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and cabinet minister, wrote in the Mail on Sunday: “If reports are to be believed, the EU has acted in bad faith and rejected [Cox’s] proposals for a simple but legally binding guarantee that the backstop, the agreement which prevents a hard border in Ireland, would not lock Britain in for ever. | Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and cabinet minister, wrote in the Mail on Sunday: “If reports are to be believed, the EU has acted in bad faith and rejected [Cox’s] proposals for a simple but legally binding guarantee that the backstop, the agreement which prevents a hard border in Ireland, would not lock Britain in for ever. |
| “And it is clear that unless there is such a guarantee, the backstop – which puts us in ‘temporary’ alignment with EU trade rules – is indeed a trap from which the UK might never escape.” | “And it is clear that unless there is such a guarantee, the backstop – which puts us in ‘temporary’ alignment with EU trade rules – is indeed a trap from which the UK might never escape.” |
| Raab, a former Brexit secretary and leading contender for the leadership, told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “We’ve seen total intransigence from the EU.” | Raab, a former Brexit secretary and leading contender for the leadership, told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “We’ve seen total intransigence from the EU.” |
| The fortunes of the environment secretary remain hard to predict and opinion is split in the party. His detractors believe he is deeply unpopular with the country and ruined his reputation for good when he stood against Boris Johnson at the last leadership race. Most MPs were delighted by his performance in the no-confidence vote where he tore into Jeremy Corbyn. But robust Brexiters dislike the fact he has stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. | |
| While the response of many voters is likely to be "Who?", to some the health secretary is starting to have the makings of a from-the-sidelines contender. The former culture secretary is only 40 but has six years of frontbench experience, and is on to his second cabinet post. The longer the race goes on the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being. | |
| The nickname "Theresa in trousers" has stuck. Most colleagues speak about his candidacy unenthusiastically and warn about his reputation with the country after the junior doctors’ strike. He could still succeed by bridging the leave-remain divide and attracting colleagues looking for a moderate grown-up, but recently he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. | |
| The home secretary is reported to have told Tory MPs he is the only one who can beat Corbyn in a general election, but has made less of an impact than first predicted. Several MPs believe the case of the Isis bride Shamima Begum was mishandled and find Javid’s speeches and vision less than inspiring. | |
| Still favourite for the top job, Johnson has kept himself out of the messiest Tory warfare in 2019 and has enthusiastic support from younger Brexiter MPs – and the patronage of Jacob Rees-Mogg. His supporters insist no other name on the list can connect with voters in the same way and win a general election. However, his reputation is still severely damaged by his time as foreign secretary and there is a concerted "anyone but Boris" campaign among party colleagues. | |
| Leadsom has revived her reputation somewhat during her tenure as Commons leader, especially her rounds in the ring with the Speaker, John Bercow. However, few believe she would ever be first choice again among Eurosceptics and a number of her former campaign team have said they will discourage her from running. It is yet to be seen how her resignation on the eve of the European elections will play with MPs. | |
| The former cabinet minister has already announced her intention to run. She has the Brexit credentials, having quit as work and pensions secretary in protest at Theresa May's withdrawal agreement, and claims to already have enough support from fellow MPs to make her bid viable. | |
| Previously seen as a definite outsider, her promotion from international development secretary to defence after the sacking of Gavin Williamson has significantly bolstered her position. As both a confirmed Brexiter and a social liberal she could unite different camps, but she remains relatively untested. | Previously seen as a definite outsider, her promotion from international development secretary to defence after the sacking of Gavin Williamson has significantly bolstered her position. As both a confirmed Brexiter and a social liberal she could unite different camps, but she remains relatively untested. |
| The former Brexit secretary has a loyal fanbase and a professional team, including support from Vote Leave’s ex-comms director Paul Stephenson. MPs are forming the view that the next party leader should be a younger face from a new generation of politicians – which gives Raab the edge over Johnson. | |
| While she has not officially ruled herself out, Rudd’s remainer tendencies and slender majority in her Hastings constituency mean the work and pensions secretary is largely being courted for who she might eventually endorse. | While she has not officially ruled herself out, Rudd’s remainer tendencies and slender majority in her Hastings constituency mean the work and pensions secretary is largely being courted for who she might eventually endorse. |
| As much for effort as inspiration. The chief secretary to the Treasury has been almost everywhere in the last few weeks – including modelling some slightly alarming trousers in the Mail on Sunday – to explain her free market, libertarian philosophy. Everyone knows what she thinks, but this will still perhaps not be enough. | |
| Among the senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, who acknowledges that he is not popular enough. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. | Among the senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, who acknowledges that he is not popular enough. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. |
| However, supporters of May have not entirely given up on getting the deal through parliament. Cabinet ministers planning to back the prime minister’s agreement hit the airwaves on Sunday to warn colleagues of the consequences of refusing to back her on Tuesday. | However, supporters of May have not entirely given up on getting the deal through parliament. Cabinet ministers planning to back the prime minister’s agreement hit the airwaves on Sunday to warn colleagues of the consequences of refusing to back her on Tuesday. |
| Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, said the consequences of Conservative MPs voting down the deal would be electorally “devastating” for the party, which would be blamed for failing to deliver Brexit. He called for “realism” among Eurosceptics, wsaying failure to back the deal would lead to an extension, and then possibly a second referendum. | Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, said the consequences of Conservative MPs voting down the deal would be electorally “devastating” for the party, which would be blamed for failing to deliver Brexit. He called for “realism” among Eurosceptics, wsaying failure to back the deal would lead to an extension, and then possibly a second referendum. |
| Adding to the pressure on MPs, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is expected in his spring statement on Wednesday to offer Conservative MPs a £20bn pot of money to “end austerity” if the prime minister’s deal passes. | Adding to the pressure on MPs, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is expected in his spring statement on Wednesday to offer Conservative MPs a £20bn pot of money to “end austerity” if the prime minister’s deal passes. |
| Brexit secretary met Labour MPs championing second referendum plan | Brexit secretary met Labour MPs championing second referendum plan |
| If May’s deal fails to pass, she has committed to holding votes in parliament on whether to rule out a no-deal Brexit and whether to extend article 50, both of which MPs are likely to support. | If May’s deal fails to pass, she has committed to holding votes in parliament on whether to rule out a no-deal Brexit and whether to extend article 50, both of which MPs are likely to support. |
| Campaigners for a second referendum then hope that they could gain momentum while the UK remains in limbo and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit becomes more real. | Campaigners for a second referendum then hope that they could gain momentum while the UK remains in limbo and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit becomes more real. |
| However, May’s team would push for more talks with Brussels and try to hold a third meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. She could be forced to try to strike an agreement with the opposition on a customs union with the EU, a move that would infuriate the Eurosceptics and worsen Conservative divisions. | However, May’s team would push for more talks with Brussels and try to hold a third meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. She could be forced to try to strike an agreement with the opposition on a customs union with the EU, a move that would infuriate the Eurosceptics and worsen Conservative divisions. |
| Downing Street insiders are privately concerned that May will not be able to hold on to power for long enough to get to the point of a third meaningful vote, as she could be forced by colleagues to resign and allow a replacement leader to conduct a “Brexit reset”. | Downing Street insiders are privately concerned that May will not be able to hold on to power for long enough to get to the point of a third meaningful vote, as she could be forced by colleagues to resign and allow a replacement leader to conduct a “Brexit reset”. |
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