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| May quitting will not get Brexit deal through, say Eurosceptics | May quitting will not get Brexit deal through, say Eurosceptics |
| (2 days later) | |
| Eurosceptics have told Theresa May that defeat on her Brexit deal looks certain without more concessions from Brussels, even if she offers to quit in exchange for them voting to get it over the line. | Eurosceptics have told Theresa May that defeat on her Brexit deal looks certain without more concessions from Brussels, even if she offers to quit in exchange for them voting to get it over the line. |
| The prime minister’s position is looking increasingly precarious, as cabinet ministers have floated the idea of forcing her to name a date for her departure if this could persuade hardline Eurosceptics to back her deal. | The prime minister’s position is looking increasingly precarious, as cabinet ministers have floated the idea of forcing her to name a date for her departure if this could persuade hardline Eurosceptics to back her deal. |
| Some leave supporters may be tempted to go for this option to allow a Brexiter such as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove or Dominic Raab to take over and have a go at negotiating the second phase – or the future relationship with the EU. | Some leave supporters may be tempted to go for this option to allow a Brexiter such as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove or Dominic Raab to take over and have a go at negotiating the second phase – or the future relationship with the EU. |
| However, the idea of voting for May’s deal in return for her exit was outright rejected by other Brexit supporters, with David Davis, a former Brexit secretary, saying it “will not get the vote through”. | However, the idea of voting for May’s deal in return for her exit was outright rejected by other Brexit supporters, with David Davis, a former Brexit secretary, saying it “will not get the vote through”. |
| “You can change the leader but you can’t change the numbers,” Davis told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show. “We have got to focus on the issue here … Nothing else will work.” | “You can change the leader but you can’t change the numbers,” Davis told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show. “We have got to focus on the issue here … Nothing else will work.” |
| Some of the most hardline leave backers are implacably opposed to the deal unless the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, secures a legally binding way out of the Irish backstop, which as it stands could keep the UK in a permanent customs union with the EU. | Some of the most hardline leave backers are implacably opposed to the deal unless the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, secures a legally binding way out of the Irish backstop, which as it stands could keep the UK in a permanent customs union with the EU. |
| Writing for the Sunday Telegraph, Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, and Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party, described defeat for the deal as “inevitable” and predicted a “three-figure majority” against the deal – a similar position to last time. | Writing for the Sunday Telegraph, Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, and Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party, described defeat for the deal as “inevitable” and predicted a “three-figure majority” against the deal – a similar position to last time. |
| “An unchanged withdrawal agreement will be defeated firmly by a sizeable proportion of Conservatives and the DUP if it is again presented to the Commons,” they wrote. “If with the DUP just half of previous Conservative opponents vote against the deal, a three-figure majority would be expected.” | “An unchanged withdrawal agreement will be defeated firmly by a sizeable proportion of Conservatives and the DUP if it is again presented to the Commons,” they wrote. “If with the DUP just half of previous Conservative opponents vote against the deal, a three-figure majority would be expected.” |
| Brexit supporters were this weekend gearing up to blame Brussels for failing to offer enough concessions to get the deal over the line. | Brexit supporters were this weekend gearing up to blame Brussels for failing to offer enough concessions to get the deal over the line. |
| Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and cabinet minister, wrote in the Mail on Sunday: “If reports are to be believed, the EU has acted in bad faith and rejected [Cox’s] proposals for a simple but legally binding guarantee that the backstop, the agreement which prevents a hard border in Ireland, would not lock Britain in for ever. | Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and cabinet minister, wrote in the Mail on Sunday: “If reports are to be believed, the EU has acted in bad faith and rejected [Cox’s] proposals for a simple but legally binding guarantee that the backstop, the agreement which prevents a hard border in Ireland, would not lock Britain in for ever. |
| “And it is clear that unless there is such a guarantee, the backstop – which puts us in ‘temporary’ alignment with EU trade rules – is indeed a trap from which the UK might never escape.” | “And it is clear that unless there is such a guarantee, the backstop – which puts us in ‘temporary’ alignment with EU trade rules – is indeed a trap from which the UK might never escape.” |
| Raab, a former Brexit secretary and leading contender for the leadership, told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “We’ve seen total intransigence from the EU.” | Raab, a former Brexit secretary and leading contender for the leadership, told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “We’ve seen total intransigence from the EU.” |
| The former deputy chair of the party and an under-secretary in DExEU, Cleverly has only been in parliament since 2015. The MP for Braintree announced his candidacy to his local paper saying the Conservatives needed to “look new and sound different”. | The former deputy chair of the party and an under-secretary in DExEU, Cleverly has only been in parliament since 2015. The MP for Braintree announced his candidacy to his local paper saying the Conservatives needed to “look new and sound different”. |
| The environment secretary is to pitch himself as a “unity candidate” capable of attracting leavers and remainers, as he formally declared his candidacy saying: “I believe that I’m ready to unite the Conservative and Unionist party, ready to deliver Brexit and ready to lead this great country.” But robust Brexiters in particular dislike the fact that he stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. | The environment secretary is to pitch himself as a “unity candidate” capable of attracting leavers and remainers, as he formally declared his candidacy saying: “I believe that I’m ready to unite the Conservative and Unionist party, ready to deliver Brexit and ready to lead this great country.” But robust Brexiters in particular dislike the fact that he stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. |
| The former universities minister is calling for a 'final say on the Brexit deal' as the only way to break the parliamentary deadlock. Gyimah is the only candidate offering a second referendum on Brexit, saying 'There is a wide range of candidates out there but there is a very narrow set of views on Brexit being discussed'. | |
| The health secretary remains a relative outsider, but the longer the race goes on, the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being, albeit a particularly energetic one. A concerted effort would probably require an image consultant. | The health secretary remains a relative outsider, but the longer the race goes on, the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being, albeit a particularly energetic one. A concerted effort would probably require an image consultant. |
| The former immigration minister and chief whip was behind the controversial 'go-home' vans when working under Theresa May at the Home Office. He resigned as immigration minister in 2014after it emerged he was employing a cleaner who did not have permission to work in the UK. He later served as David Cameron’s chief whip. But he has not served in Theresa May’s government and has, therefore, sought to cast himself as the candidate who offers 'fresh thinking. | The former immigration minister and chief whip was behind the controversial 'go-home' vans when working under Theresa May at the Home Office. He resigned as immigration minister in 2014after it emerged he was employing a cleaner who did not have permission to work in the UK. He later served as David Cameron’s chief whip. But he has not served in Theresa May’s government and has, therefore, sought to cast himself as the candidate who offers 'fresh thinking. |
| Fears that the foreign secretary would be another overly woolly compromise choice were hardly assuaged when after a set-piece speech he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. | Fears that the foreign secretary would be another overly woolly compromise choice were hardly assuaged when after a set-piece speech he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. |
| The home secretary still has the same weaknesses: he is an uninspiring speaker and some worry he is too fond of headline-grabbing, illiberal political gestures. But he is almost as ubiquitous as Liz Truss, and clearly believes this is his time. | The home secretary still has the same weaknesses: he is an uninspiring speaker and some worry he is too fond of headline-grabbing, illiberal political gestures. But he is almost as ubiquitous as Liz Truss, and clearly believes this is his time. |
| The out-and-out favourite, so popular with the Tory grassroots that it would be hard for MPs to not make Johnson one of the final two. He has been relatively quiet recently, beyond his regular Telegraph column, but this is very deliberate. | The out-and-out favourite, so popular with the Tory grassroots that it would be hard for MPs to not make Johnson one of the final two. He has been relatively quiet recently, beyond his regular Telegraph column, but this is very deliberate. |
| The former House of Commons leader, who left Theresa May as the last candidate standing when she pulled out of the previous leadership race in 2016, has decided to have another tilt at the top job, saying she has the “experience and confidence” to “lead this country into a brighter future”. But even with her staunch Brexiter tendencies, she would be seen as an outsider. | The former House of Commons leader, who left Theresa May as the last candidate standing when she pulled out of the previous leadership race in 2016, has decided to have another tilt at the top job, saying she has the “experience and confidence” to “lead this country into a brighter future”. But even with her staunch Brexiter tendencies, she would be seen as an outsider. |
| The housing minister is credited as the convener of both Conservative leavers and remainers to develop a compromise on May’s withdrawal agreement. He said there was a “yearning for change”. The 52-year-old is a former deputy mayor of London and entered the Commons in 2015 when David Cameron’s Conservatives won a majority. His name was given to the “Malthouse compromise” – a proposal drawn up by backbenchers from leave and remain wings of the Tory party, which would have implemented May’s Brexit deal with the backstop replaced by alternative arrangements. | The housing minister is credited as the convener of both Conservative leavers and remainers to develop a compromise on May’s withdrawal agreement. He said there was a “yearning for change”. The 52-year-old is a former deputy mayor of London and entered the Commons in 2015 when David Cameron’s Conservatives won a majority. His name was given to the “Malthouse compromise” – a proposal drawn up by backbenchers from leave and remain wings of the Tory party, which would have implemented May’s Brexit deal with the backstop replaced by alternative arrangements. |
| The former work and pensions secretary, who quit last year over May’s Brexit plans, has launched her own in-party campaign group/leadership vehicle called Blue Collar Conservatism, promising to make the party more amenable to voters in deprived communities – mainly through a promise to deliver a strong Brexit and policies such as diverting much of the foreign aid budget to schools and police. | The former work and pensions secretary, who quit last year over May’s Brexit plans, has launched her own in-party campaign group/leadership vehicle called Blue Collar Conservatism, promising to make the party more amenable to voters in deprived communities – mainly through a promise to deliver a strong Brexit and policies such as diverting much of the foreign aid budget to schools and police. |
| Few things say “would-be leader in waiting” like a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse, and the former Brexit secretary duly obliged with this imageawash with tasteful pastel hues. He formally launched his bid in the Mail on Sunday. Among the more core constituency of Conservative MPs, Raab has been pushing hard, as has his semi-official “Ready for Raab” Twitter feed. | Few things say “would-be leader in waiting” like a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse, and the former Brexit secretary duly obliged with this imageawash with tasteful pastel hues. He formally launched his bid in the Mail on Sunday. Among the more core constituency of Conservative MPs, Raab has been pushing hard, as has his semi-official “Ready for Raab” Twitter feed. |
| The cabinet’s most recent arrival – Mordaunt’s promotion to defence led to Stewart becoming international development secretary – certainly has the necessary ambition and self-belief, plus a privileged if unorthodox backstory covering Eton, Oxford, a senior role in postwar Iraq and a bestselling book about walking across Afghanistan. He remains an outsider, not least because of his remain tendencies and slightly 2010 view of compassionate Conservatism. | The cabinet’s most recent arrival – Mordaunt’s promotion to defence led to Stewart becoming international development secretary – certainly has the necessary ambition and self-belief, plus a privileged if unorthodox backstory covering Eton, Oxford, a senior role in postwar Iraq and a bestselling book about walking across Afghanistan. He remains an outsider, not least because of his remain tendencies and slightly 2010 view of compassionate Conservatism. |
| Sir Graham Brady, Penny Mordaunt and James Brokenshire are yet to declare their intentions. Liz Truss and Amber Rudd have ruled themselves out. | Sir Graham Brady, Penny Mordaunt and James Brokenshire are yet to declare their intentions. Liz Truss and Amber Rudd have ruled themselves out. |
| Among other senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, Chris Grayling and Philip Hammond. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. | Among other senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, Chris Grayling and Philip Hammond. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. |
| However, supporters of May have not entirely given up on getting the deal through parliament. Cabinet ministers planning to back the prime minister’s agreement hit the airwaves on Sunday to warn colleagues of the consequences of refusing to back her on Tuesday. | However, supporters of May have not entirely given up on getting the deal through parliament. Cabinet ministers planning to back the prime minister’s agreement hit the airwaves on Sunday to warn colleagues of the consequences of refusing to back her on Tuesday. |
| Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, said the consequences of Conservative MPs voting down the deal would be electorally “devastating” for the party, which would be blamed for failing to deliver Brexit. He called for “realism” among Eurosceptics, wsaying failure to back the deal would lead to an extension, and then possibly a second referendum. | Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, said the consequences of Conservative MPs voting down the deal would be electorally “devastating” for the party, which would be blamed for failing to deliver Brexit. He called for “realism” among Eurosceptics, wsaying failure to back the deal would lead to an extension, and then possibly a second referendum. |
| Adding to the pressure on MPs, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is expected in his spring statement on Wednesday to offer Conservative MPs a £20bn pot of money to “end austerity” if the prime minister’s deal passes. | Adding to the pressure on MPs, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is expected in his spring statement on Wednesday to offer Conservative MPs a £20bn pot of money to “end austerity” if the prime minister’s deal passes. |
| Brexit secretary met Labour MPs championing second referendum plan | Brexit secretary met Labour MPs championing second referendum plan |
| If May’s deal fails to pass, she has committed to holding votes in parliament on whether to rule out a no-deal Brexit and whether to extend article 50, both of which MPs are likely to support. | If May’s deal fails to pass, she has committed to holding votes in parliament on whether to rule out a no-deal Brexit and whether to extend article 50, both of which MPs are likely to support. |
| Campaigners for a second referendum then hope that they could gain momentum while the UK remains in limbo and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit becomes more real. | Campaigners for a second referendum then hope that they could gain momentum while the UK remains in limbo and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit becomes more real. |
| However, May’s team would push for more talks with Brussels and try to hold a third meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. She could be forced to try to strike an agreement with the opposition on a customs union with the EU, a move that would infuriate the Eurosceptics and worsen Conservative divisions. | However, May’s team would push for more talks with Brussels and try to hold a third meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. She could be forced to try to strike an agreement with the opposition on a customs union with the EU, a move that would infuriate the Eurosceptics and worsen Conservative divisions. |
| Downing Street insiders are privately concerned that May will not be able to hold on to power for long enough to get to the point of a third meaningful vote, as she could be forced by colleagues to resign and allow a replacement leader to conduct a “Brexit reset”. | Downing Street insiders are privately concerned that May will not be able to hold on to power for long enough to get to the point of a third meaningful vote, as she could be forced by colleagues to resign and allow a replacement leader to conduct a “Brexit reset”. |
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