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| Global stock markets gain as investors predict cautious Federal Reserve – business live | Global stock markets gain as investors predict cautious Federal Reserve – business live |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| The FTSE’s mining cohort is making the running this morning, pushing the index up by half a percentage point. | |
| Rio Tinto is the biggest gainer, up by about 2.2%, but it’s barely ahead of a procession of miners. | |
| Evraz, Anglo American, Glencore, Antofagasta and BHP Group are all up by 1.8% or more at the top of the index. | |
| Shares in Footasylum have surged this morning after its larger rival JD Sports swooped with an offer for the struggling shoe retailer. | |
| The deal values Footasylum at £90.1m, after the retailer struggled with British consumer uncertainty and sluggish spending. | |
| JD Sports had repeatedly denied that it would make an offer after raising its stake in the company to 18% last month. | |
| While recent investors will be pleased this morning, the offer will do little to make up for the fall in its share price over the past year, as the below chart shows. | |
| More detail on the deal coming soon. | |
| The FTSE 100 has risen at the start of the week, up by about 0.3% in the first minutes of trading. | The FTSE 100 has risen at the start of the week, up by about 0.3% in the first minutes of trading. |
| Early gainers on London’s blue-chip index include Rio Tinto, Rolls-Royce and BHP Group. | Early gainers on London’s blue-chip index include Rio Tinto, Rolls-Royce and BHP Group. |
| Germany’s two largest listed banks revealed they have started formal merger talks at the weekend, after a long period of struggles at Deutsche Bank. | Germany’s two largest listed banks revealed they have started formal merger talks at the weekend, after a long period of struggles at Deutsche Bank. |
| Commerzbank told investors that it has started “discussions with an open outcome on a potential merger”. Deutsche Bank’s chief executive, Christian Sewing, said it will “pursue options that make economic sense”. | Commerzbank told investors that it has started “discussions with an open outcome on a potential merger”. Deutsche Bank’s chief executive, Christian Sewing, said it will “pursue options that make economic sense”. |
| A combination of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank would create something of a national champion for Germany – a lender with the scale to match its strong industrial sector. | A combination of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank would create something of a national champion for Germany – a lender with the scale to match its strong industrial sector. |
| However, it would likely face stiff opposition domestically, with the likelihood that any merger would involve massive job losses to make it worth the cost. The Verdi union calculated that as many as 30,000 jobs could go – mainly in retail roles – if the merger goes through with government blessing. | However, it would likely face stiff opposition domestically, with the likelihood that any merger would involve massive job losses to make it worth the cost. The Verdi union calculated that as many as 30,000 jobs could go – mainly in retail roles – if the merger goes through with government blessing. |
| That would be a heavy political price to pay to help Deutsche Bank, whose struggles have been more focused on its investment bank. | That would be a heavy political price to pay to help Deutsche Bank, whose struggles have been more focused on its investment bank. |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Investors on global stock markets appear to have taken heart ahead of a big week for central banks. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee announces its latest decision on interest rates on Thursday, but it is the US Federal Reserve which is driving the conversation on markets. | Investors on global stock markets appear to have taken heart ahead of a big week for central banks. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee announces its latest decision on interest rates on Thursday, but it is the US Federal Reserve which is driving the conversation on markets. |
| After a string of rate rises in 2018, Fed chair Jerome Powell appears to have put the brakes on. Markets are now predicting a 99% chance that interest rates will not move at Wednesday’s announcement, but revised economic forecasts and the potential for tinkering with the central bank’s enormous balance sheet will be key for investors. | After a string of rate rises in 2018, Fed chair Jerome Powell appears to have put the brakes on. Markets are now predicting a 99% chance that interest rates will not move at Wednesday’s announcement, but revised economic forecasts and the potential for tinkering with the central bank’s enormous balance sheet will be key for investors. |
| In particular, Powell is expected to give details on whether to continue selling off bonds at the same pace as before. A moderation in the pace of the sell-off might be welcomed by jittery markets who fear that the US economy may have peaked. | In particular, Powell is expected to give details on whether to continue selling off bonds at the same pace as before. A moderation in the pace of the sell-off might be welcomed by jittery markets who fear that the US economy may have peaked. |
| In the UK, meanwhile, there are 11 days until Brexit. That will undoubtedly be the driving force for sentiment for British businesses who still have little idea what rules will govern trade with the EU after 29 March. | In the UK, meanwhile, there are 11 days until Brexit. That will undoubtedly be the driving force for sentiment for British businesses who still have little idea what rules will govern trade with the EU after 29 March. |
| Prime Minister Theresa May is courting the Democratic Unionist party to try to win support for the withdrawal deal she agreed with the EU. That deal has been defeated twice in emphatic fashion already, but we could see a third or even fourth attempt to get it through parliament this week as the clock ticks. | Prime Minister Theresa May is courting the Democratic Unionist party to try to win support for the withdrawal deal she agreed with the EU. That deal has been defeated twice in emphatic fashion already, but we could see a third or even fourth attempt to get it through parliament this week as the clock ticks. |
| The range of possibilities for where we will be in a week’s time is striking – amid doubts over whether a second referendum could be backed. | The range of possibilities for where we will be in a week’s time is striking – amid doubts over whether a second referendum could be backed. |
| Timing of 3rd meaningful vote (MV3) remains uncertain. British govt will only hold MV3 on PM May’s Brexit deal this week if it believes it can win. Corbyn appeared to signal that his party would back amendment aimed at securing 2nd Brexit ref, set to be tabled this wk. (via Citi) pic.twitter.com/1LTHU14nPK | Timing of 3rd meaningful vote (MV3) remains uncertain. British govt will only hold MV3 on PM May’s Brexit deal this week if it believes it can win. Corbyn appeared to signal that his party would back amendment aimed at securing 2nd Brexit ref, set to be tabled this wk. (via Citi) pic.twitter.com/1LTHU14nPK |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| 10am GMT: Eurozone balance of trade (January) | 10am GMT: Eurozone balance of trade (January) |
| 3:10pm GMT: Speech by European Central Bank chief economist Peter Praet | 3:10pm GMT: Speech by European Central Bank chief economist Peter Praet |