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| Global stock markets gain as investors predict cautious Federal Reserve – business live | Global stock markets gain as investors predict cautious Federal Reserve – business live |
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| Footasylum shares are up by 74% to 81p today thanks to JD Sports’ offer, but that is still far below the flotation price of 164p in November 2017, when Footasylum was valued at £171m. | |
| The 70-store chain, which focuses on selling branded trainers and tops to 16- to 24-year-olds, has issued a number of profit warnings since it floated, writes the Guardian’s Julia Kollewe. | |
| JD Sports to buy Footasylum for £90m | |
| It’s something of a return to the fold for Footasylum, which was started in 2005 by the founder of JD Sports. | |
| Both retailers are headquartered in Greater Manchester and JD Sports said there could be cost savings by moving some of Footasylum’s headquarters operations to its own base. | |
| US ride-hailing app Lyft hopes to raise as much as $2.1bn (£1.6bn) in an initial public offering, beating its rival, Uber, to a stock market float. | US ride-hailing app Lyft hopes to raise as much as $2.1bn (£1.6bn) in an initial public offering, beating its rival, Uber, to a stock market float. |
| Updated documents published on Monday show that it will offer 30.8m shares on the Nasdaq exchange in New York. Lyft hopes they will sell for between $62 and $68 per share. | Updated documents published on Monday show that it will offer 30.8m shares on the Nasdaq exchange in New York. Lyft hopes they will sell for between $62 and $68 per share. |
| Lyft is seen as one of the major rivals to Uber, another US firm leading the charge in transport services. | Lyft is seen as one of the major rivals to Uber, another US firm leading the charge in transport services. |
| Lyft is not currently available in the UK, where Uber dominates among taxi hailing apps. However, both have been investing heavily in autonomous vehicle technology, which will remove the need to pay drivers’ fees, and electric scooter services for city centre travel. | Lyft is not currently available in the UK, where Uber dominates among taxi hailing apps. However, both have been investing heavily in autonomous vehicle technology, which will remove the need to pay drivers’ fees, and electric scooter services for city centre travel. |
| Just don’t expect any movement on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. | Just don’t expect any movement on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. |
| The handy Fedwatch tool from exchange firm CME Group shows what the likelihood of a rate move is, based on investors’ derivative purchases. On the left, it shows a 1.3% chance of a cut in rates, compared to a 98.7% chance of remaining stable. | The handy Fedwatch tool from exchange firm CME Group shows what the likelihood of a rate move is, based on investors’ derivative purchases. On the left, it shows a 1.3% chance of a cut in rates, compared to a 98.7% chance of remaining stable. |
| We should expect lower Fed forecasts for future rate hikes, GDP growth, and inflation, according to economists at UBS. | We should expect lower Fed forecasts for future rate hikes, GDP growth, and inflation, according to economists at UBS. |
| Members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are all but certain to leave interest rates on hold, at least if market expectations are anything to go by. Disappointing economic data have prompted a string of more cautious statements from Fed members. | Members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are all but certain to leave interest rates on hold, at least if market expectations are anything to go by. Disappointing economic data have prompted a string of more cautious statements from Fed members. |
| “The steady beat of weak data will have increased the pessimism on the part of the committee,” said UBS economists, led by Seth Carpenter. | “The steady beat of weak data will have increased the pessimism on the part of the committee,” said UBS economists, led by Seth Carpenter. |
| We anticipate that the theme from the March meeting will, once again, be ‘patience’. While the FOMC continues to see a relatively robust US economy, various members are seeing increasing downside risks to the outlook. | We anticipate that the theme from the March meeting will, once again, be ‘patience’. While the FOMC continues to see a relatively robust US economy, various members are seeing increasing downside risks to the outlook. |
| The end of the current bout of quantitative tightening could start in July, with the balance sheet stabilised in December, UBS said. | The end of the current bout of quantitative tightening could start in July, with the balance sheet stabilised in December, UBS said. |
| Let’s get some more on what is shaping up to be the major story driving global markets this week: the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday. | Let’s get some more on what is shaping up to be the major story driving global markets this week: the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday. |
| A rate change is unlikely after the central bank previously said it would be patient in its approach, said Kit Juckes, global chief fixed income strategist at Société Générale. Nevertheless, market moves on Monday “mostly reflect optimism that the Fed has the market and investors’ backs”, he said. | A rate change is unlikely after the central bank previously said it would be patient in its approach, said Kit Juckes, global chief fixed income strategist at Société Générale. Nevertheless, market moves on Monday “mostly reflect optimism that the Fed has the market and investors’ backs”, he said. |
| The key decision facing monetary policymakers in Washington is what to do with a balance sheet which peaked at $4.5 trillion in assets – mainly built up under the quantitative easing programme to stimulate the economy following the financial crisis. | The key decision facing monetary policymakers in Washington is what to do with a balance sheet which peaked at $4.5 trillion in assets – mainly built up under the quantitative easing programme to stimulate the economy following the financial crisis. |
| Some investors appear concerned that selling off those assets – dubbed quantitative tightening – could have the reverse effect, slowing the economy further. Fed chair Jerome Powell may have a tricky job in balancing the desire to continue raising rates with caution on the economy. | Some investors appear concerned that selling off those assets – dubbed quantitative tightening – could have the reverse effect, slowing the economy further. Fed chair Jerome Powell may have a tricky job in balancing the desire to continue raising rates with caution on the economy. |
| Juckes said: | Juckes said: |
| We think they’ll confirm that the Fed’s balance sheet run-off will end this year, though they may not give us a lot more detail than that. As for rate policy, ‘patience’ is the watchword. | We think they’ll confirm that the Fed’s balance sheet run-off will end this year, though they may not give us a lot more detail than that. As for rate policy, ‘patience’ is the watchword. |
| There is likely a lot of water to flow under the Brexit bridge today, which could drive movements on British markets. The early signs have not been encouraging for Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal. | There is likely a lot of water to flow under the Brexit bridge today, which could drive movements on British markets. The early signs have not been encouraging for Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal. |
| Senior Democratic Unionist party politician Jim Wells said he does not think May would win a third vote on her deal even if his party does swing behind it because of a hard core of Conservative party Eurosceptics. | Senior Democratic Unionist party politician Jim Wells said he does not think May would win a third vote on her deal even if his party does swing behind it because of a hard core of Conservative party Eurosceptics. |
| Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, on Monday positioned himself firmly on the Eurosceptic side, while another 23 backbench Tories also wrote in the Telegraph that they would not back the deal. Read the full story here: | Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, on Monday positioned himself firmly on the Eurosceptic side, while another 23 backbench Tories also wrote in the Telegraph that they would not back the deal. Read the full story here: |
| DUP backing will not secure May's Brexit deal, says Jim Wells | DUP backing will not secure May's Brexit deal, says Jim Wells |
| You can follow all the twists and turns throughout the day on the Guardian politics live blog, ahead of an expected vote tomorrow. | You can follow all the twists and turns throughout the day on the Guardian politics live blog, ahead of an expected vote tomorrow. |
| Resilience in the face of uncertainty is the upshot from the finances survey, according to Tim Moore, associate directorat IHS Markit. | Resilience in the face of uncertainty is the upshot from the finances survey, according to Tim Moore, associate directorat IHS Markit. |
| He said: “March data indicate a degree of resilience for UK household sentiment in response to turbulent domestic political events. Concerns about job security and the outlook for financial wellbeing moderated slightly since February, although remain more widespread than in 2018. | He said: “March data indicate a degree of resilience for UK household sentiment in response to turbulent domestic political events. Concerns about job security and the outlook for financial wellbeing moderated slightly since February, although remain more widespread than in 2018. |
| A sharp drop in UK households’ appetite for major purchases was the main signal that Brexit uncertainty had some impact on consumer spending. This index was close to a five-year low, which may reflect a wait-and-see approach to holiday bookings and other big-ticket spending commitments during the latest survey period. | A sharp drop in UK households’ appetite for major purchases was the main signal that Brexit uncertainty had some impact on consumer spending. This index was close to a five-year low, which may reflect a wait-and-see approach to holiday bookings and other big-ticket spending commitments during the latest survey period. |
| Britons appear to be battening down the hatches, reining back big purchases, according to data published this morning by data firm IHS Markit. | Britons appear to be battening down the hatches, reining back big purchases, according to data published this morning by data firm IHS Markit. |
| The survey found the fastest fall in UK households’ appetite for major purchases like cars and holidays for 18 months – a sign of financial caution. | The survey found the fastest fall in UK households’ appetite for major purchases like cars and holidays for 18 months – a sign of financial caution. |
| However, some of the pessimism around future prospects for household finances appears to have diminished as unemployment has remained low. IHS Markit said: | However, some of the pessimism around future prospects for household finances appears to have diminished as unemployment has remained low. IHS Markit said: |
| Resilient labour market conditions appear to have supportedhouseholds’ expectations for their finances over the next 12 months. | Resilient labour market conditions appear to have supportedhouseholds’ expectations for their finances over the next 12 months. |
| It’s looking very green across major European stock markets. | It’s looking very green across major European stock markets. |
| London stocks are jostling with Italy to lead the way this morning – how often has that been the case in recent months? | London stocks are jostling with Italy to lead the way this morning – how often has that been the case in recent months? |
| Slightly less exuberance from Germany’s Dax index, which has only edged up. Deutsche Bank is up by 3.5% in Frankfurt, while Commerzbank has gained more than 5%. | Slightly less exuberance from Germany’s Dax index, which has only edged up. Deutsche Bank is up by 3.5% in Frankfurt, while Commerzbank has gained more than 5%. |
| On currency markets sterling is starting to lose some ground as traders take stock of a turbulent week ahead. | On currency markets sterling is starting to lose some ground as traders take stock of a turbulent week ahead. |
| Against the euro the pound has fallen by 0.4% over the course of the day, while against the US dollar it has lost just under 0.3%. | Against the euro the pound has fallen by 0.4% over the course of the day, while against the US dollar it has lost just under 0.3%. |
| US financial technology firm FIS will buy Worldpay in a deal which values it at $43bn (£32bn), the companies said on Monday. | US financial technology firm FIS will buy Worldpay in a deal which values it at $43bn (£32bn), the companies said on Monday. |
| Payments company Worldpay was founded in the UK, before being bought by Royal Bank of Scotland. However, it was sold as part of the deal for its government bailout, and has been acquired multiple times – including a £9.3bn deal in 2017. | Payments company Worldpay was founded in the UK, before being bought by Royal Bank of Scotland. However, it was sold as part of the deal for its government bailout, and has been acquired multiple times – including a £9.3bn deal in 2017. |
| The latest deal will see $400m in cost synergies, the companies said. The combined entity, which will have about $4.9bn in annual profits, will be based in Florida in the US and will keep the FIS name. | The latest deal will see $400m in cost synergies, the companies said. The combined entity, which will have about $4.9bn in annual profits, will be based in Florida in the US and will keep the FIS name. |
| Worldpay handles billions of transactions every year for bricks-and-mortar retailers and online shops, while FIS provides a wide range of financial services software to companies. | Worldpay handles billions of transactions every year for bricks-and-mortar retailers and online shops, while FIS provides a wide range of financial services software to companies. |
| Worldpay in August 2017 said that its deal for only £9.2bn did not represent “cheap pickings” for American buyer Vantiv. | Worldpay in August 2017 said that its deal for only £9.2bn did not represent “cheap pickings” for American buyer Vantiv. |
| The FTSE’s mining cohort is making the running this morning, pushing the index up by half a percentage point. | The FTSE’s mining cohort is making the running this morning, pushing the index up by half a percentage point. |
| Rio Tinto is the biggest gainer, up by about 2.2%, but it’s barely ahead of a procession of miners. | Rio Tinto is the biggest gainer, up by about 2.2%, but it’s barely ahead of a procession of miners. |
| Evraz, Anglo American, Glencore, Antofagasta and BHP Group are all up by 1.8% or more at the top of the index. | Evraz, Anglo American, Glencore, Antofagasta and BHP Group are all up by 1.8% or more at the top of the index. |
| Shares in Footasylum have surged this morning after its larger rival JD Sports swooped with an offer for the struggling shoe retailer. | Shares in Footasylum have surged this morning after its larger rival JD Sports swooped with an offer for the struggling shoe retailer. |
| The deal values Footasylum at £90.1m, after the retailer struggled with British consumer uncertainty and sluggish spending. | The deal values Footasylum at £90.1m, after the retailer struggled with British consumer uncertainty and sluggish spending. |
| JD Sports had repeatedly denied that it would make an offer after raising its stake in the company to 18% last month. | JD Sports had repeatedly denied that it would make an offer after raising its stake in the company to 18% last month. |
| While recent investors will be pleased this morning, the offer will do little to make up for the fall in its share price over the past year, as the below chart shows. | While recent investors will be pleased this morning, the offer will do little to make up for the fall in its share price over the past year, as the below chart shows. |
| More detail on the deal coming soon. | More detail on the deal coming soon. |
| The FTSE 100 has risen at the start of the week, up by about 0.3% in the first minutes of trading. | The FTSE 100 has risen at the start of the week, up by about 0.3% in the first minutes of trading. |
| Early gainers on London’s blue-chip index include Rio Tinto, Rolls-Royce and BHP Group. | Early gainers on London’s blue-chip index include Rio Tinto, Rolls-Royce and BHP Group. |
| Germany’s two largest listed banks revealed they have started formal merger talks at the weekend, after a long period of struggles at Deutsche Bank. | Germany’s two largest listed banks revealed they have started formal merger talks at the weekend, after a long period of struggles at Deutsche Bank. |
| Commerzbank told investors that it has started “discussions with an open outcome on a potential merger”. Deutsche Bank’s chief executive, Christian Sewing, said it will “pursue options that make economic sense”. | Commerzbank told investors that it has started “discussions with an open outcome on a potential merger”. Deutsche Bank’s chief executive, Christian Sewing, said it will “pursue options that make economic sense”. |
| A combination of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank would create something of a national champion for Germany – a lender with the scale to match its strong industrial sector. | A combination of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank would create something of a national champion for Germany – a lender with the scale to match its strong industrial sector. |
| However, it would likely face stiff opposition domestically, with the likelihood that any merger would involve massive job losses to make it worth the cost. The Verdi union calculated that as many as 30,000 jobs could go – mainly in retail roles – if the merger goes through with government blessing. | However, it would likely face stiff opposition domestically, with the likelihood that any merger would involve massive job losses to make it worth the cost. The Verdi union calculated that as many as 30,000 jobs could go – mainly in retail roles – if the merger goes through with government blessing. |
| That would be a heavy political price to pay to help Deutsche Bank, whose struggles have been more focused on its investment bank. | That would be a heavy political price to pay to help Deutsche Bank, whose struggles have been more focused on its investment bank. |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Investors on global stock markets appear to have taken heart ahead of a big week for central banks. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee announces its latest decision on interest rates on Thursday, but it is the US Federal Reserve which is driving the conversation on markets. | Investors on global stock markets appear to have taken heart ahead of a big week for central banks. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee announces its latest decision on interest rates on Thursday, but it is the US Federal Reserve which is driving the conversation on markets. |
| After a string of rate rises in 2018, Fed chair Jerome Powell appears to have put the brakes on. Markets are now predicting a 99% chance that interest rates will not move at Wednesday’s announcement, but revised economic forecasts and the potential for tinkering with the central bank’s enormous balance sheet will be key for investors. | After a string of rate rises in 2018, Fed chair Jerome Powell appears to have put the brakes on. Markets are now predicting a 99% chance that interest rates will not move at Wednesday’s announcement, but revised economic forecasts and the potential for tinkering with the central bank’s enormous balance sheet will be key for investors. |
| In particular, Powell is expected to give details on whether to continue selling off bonds at the same pace as before. A moderation in the pace of the sell-off might be welcomed by jittery markets who fear that the US economy may have peaked. | In particular, Powell is expected to give details on whether to continue selling off bonds at the same pace as before. A moderation in the pace of the sell-off might be welcomed by jittery markets who fear that the US economy may have peaked. |
| In the UK, meanwhile, there are 11 days until Brexit. That will undoubtedly be the driving force for sentiment for British businesses who still have little idea what rules will govern trade with the EU after 29 March. | In the UK, meanwhile, there are 11 days until Brexit. That will undoubtedly be the driving force for sentiment for British businesses who still have little idea what rules will govern trade with the EU after 29 March. |
| Prime Minister Theresa May is courting the Democratic Unionist party to try to win support for the withdrawal deal she agreed with the EU. That deal has been defeated twice in emphatic fashion already, but we could see a third or even fourth attempt to get it through parliament this week as the clock ticks. | Prime Minister Theresa May is courting the Democratic Unionist party to try to win support for the withdrawal deal she agreed with the EU. That deal has been defeated twice in emphatic fashion already, but we could see a third or even fourth attempt to get it through parliament this week as the clock ticks. |
| The range of possibilities for where we will be in a week’s time is striking – amid doubts over whether a second referendum could be backed. | The range of possibilities for where we will be in a week’s time is striking – amid doubts over whether a second referendum could be backed. |
| Timing of 3rd meaningful vote (MV3) remains uncertain. British govt will only hold MV3 on PM May’s Brexit deal this week if it believes it can win. Corbyn appeared to signal that his party would back amendment aimed at securing 2nd Brexit ref, set to be tabled this wk. (via Citi) pic.twitter.com/1LTHU14nPK | Timing of 3rd meaningful vote (MV3) remains uncertain. British govt will only hold MV3 on PM May’s Brexit deal this week if it believes it can win. Corbyn appeared to signal that his party would back amendment aimed at securing 2nd Brexit ref, set to be tabled this wk. (via Citi) pic.twitter.com/1LTHU14nPK |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| 10am GMT: Eurozone balance of trade (January) | 10am GMT: Eurozone balance of trade (January) |
| 3:10pm GMT: Speech by European Central Bank chief economist Peter Praet | 3:10pm GMT: Speech by European Central Bank chief economist Peter Praet |