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| No-deal Brexit more likely by the day, says Michel Barnier | No-deal Brexit more likely by the day, says Michel Barnier |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Michel Barnier has said a no-deal Brexit is “very likely” and becoming more likely by the day after the Commons rejected all the alternative solutions to Theresa May’s deal. | Michel Barnier has said a no-deal Brexit is “very likely” and becoming more likely by the day after the Commons rejected all the alternative solutions to Theresa May’s deal. |
| Speaking in Brussels, the EU’s chief negotiator said Britain would need to take responsibility should a “positive majority” to avoid a looming cliff-edge Brexit on 12 April fail to emerge in the next few days. | Speaking in Brussels, the EU’s chief negotiator said Britain would need to take responsibility should a “positive majority” to avoid a looming cliff-edge Brexit on 12 April fail to emerge in the next few days. |
| “No deal was never our desired or intended scenario,” Barnier told an audience at a thinktank event. “But the EU27 is now prepared. It becomes, day after day, more likely.” | “No deal was never our desired or intended scenario,” Barnier told an audience at a thinktank event. “But the EU27 is now prepared. It becomes, day after day, more likely.” |
| “This is a serious crisis and no-one can be pleased with what is happening in the UK currently”, he added. | “This is a serious crisis and no-one can be pleased with what is happening in the UK currently”, he added. |
| Three scenarios were set out by the EU official: agreement this week on the prime minister’s deal or a variant of it, no deal, or a long extension to article 50 requiring “a strong justification”. | Three scenarios were set out by the EU official: agreement this week on the prime minister’s deal or a variant of it, no deal, or a long extension to article 50 requiring “a strong justification”. |
| Theresa May's cabinet will meet to discuss what to do next after the outcome of the indicative votes. With no alternative options gaining a majority among MPs, she could still decide to go for a fourth 'meaningful vote' on her deal. | Theresa May's cabinet will meet to discuss what to do next after the outcome of the indicative votes. With no alternative options gaining a majority among MPs, she could still decide to go for a fourth 'meaningful vote' on her deal. |
| Parliament may decide to have another set of indicative votes - possibly on the paper will be a compromise option that combines a customs union with a confirmatory public vote. That may finally command a majority in the Commons. | |
| Thursday may see another attempt for No. 10 to get the withdrawal agreement through parliament. | |
| If the UK parliament or government have significantly changed position, then a lengthy Article 50 extension may be required. EU leaders would decide how long at a summit on this date. Negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested there might be three reasons for the EU to grant a long extension: for a second referendum, a general election, or because parliament wants to again examine the political declaration. But there's no guarantee the EU27 would unanimously agree to this. | |
| If Theresa May's deal is not passed by parliament, then, with no other significant developments, this would be the date by international law that the UK leaves the EU without a deal. | |
| If Theresa May's deal does pass parliament, this would be the scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU. | If Theresa May's deal does pass parliament, this would be the scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU. |
| Unless there is a further longer extension of article 50, the EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. However, if Brexit has been further delayed, the UK would hold European elections on the Thursday. | |
| If Theresa May's deal passes parliament, she is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on 22 May, triggering a contest for the leadership of the Conservative party. There has been some suggestion though that she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October. | |
| Such is the frustration in EU capitals at the failure of Westminster to coalesce around a vision of its post-Brexit future that it increasingly appears that a lengthy delay beyond 22 May can only be guaranteed in the event of a general election or a second referendum. | Such is the frustration in EU capitals at the failure of Westminster to coalesce around a vision of its post-Brexit future that it increasingly appears that a lengthy delay beyond 22 May can only be guaranteed in the event of a general election or a second referendum. |
| Barnier said an extension beyond the end of May, requiring the UK to take part in European parliamentary elections, “would carry significant risks for the EU and therefore strong justification would be needed”. | Barnier said an extension beyond the end of May, requiring the UK to take part in European parliamentary elections, “would carry significant risks for the EU and therefore strong justification would be needed”. |
| He said businesses in the EU had warned Brussels “against the cost of extending uncertainty”. The UK prolonging its status as a member state while still seeking to leave with a negotiated deal “could pose a risk on our decision-making autonomy”. | He said businesses in the EU had warned Brussels “against the cost of extending uncertainty”. The UK prolonging its status as a member state while still seeking to leave with a negotiated deal “could pose a risk on our decision-making autonomy”. |
| “The option of no deal looks very likely’, Barnier later added. | “The option of no deal looks very likely’, Barnier later added. |
| On Monday night, all four options put to the Commons to break the Brexit impasse were rejected by MPs, although by small margins, raising some hope that a solution might be found later in the week. | On Monday night, all four options put to the Commons to break the Brexit impasse were rejected by MPs, although by small margins, raising some hope that a solution might be found later in the week. |
| Barnier pointed out that the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said on Monday that the EU’s patience had reached its limit. “Personally, as the negotiator, I have some patience left…We are a little bit from the end, we still have a little bit of patience.” | Barnier pointed out that the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said on Monday that the EU’s patience had reached its limit. “Personally, as the negotiator, I have some patience left…We are a little bit from the end, we still have a little bit of patience.” |
| The customs union motion tabled by the Conservative former chancellor Ken Clarke was rejected by a margin of only three votes, 273 to 276, while a second Brexit referendum fell short of a majority by 12 votes. | The customs union motion tabled by the Conservative former chancellor Ken Clarke was rejected by a margin of only three votes, 273 to 276, while a second Brexit referendum fell short of a majority by 12 votes. |
| A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole. | A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole. |
| For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements. | For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements. |
| Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union. | Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union. |
| Jennifer Rankin | Jennifer Rankin |
| The Norway-style “common market 2.0” deal championed by Nick Boles, who later dramatically resigned the Conservative party whip, was also rejected, by 261 votes to 282, despite Labour frontbench and Scottish National party support. Just 33 Conservative MPs backed it. | The Norway-style “common market 2.0” deal championed by Nick Boles, who later dramatically resigned the Conservative party whip, was also rejected, by 261 votes to 282, despite Labour frontbench and Scottish National party support. Just 33 Conservative MPs backed it. |
| Barnier said he expected MPs are to attempt to hold indicative votes again by the end of the week, with the options likely to have been narrowed further. Should parliament back a customs union, swift changes to the political declaration on the future relationship with the EU could be made. | Barnier said he expected MPs are to attempt to hold indicative votes again by the end of the week, with the options likely to have been narrowed further. Should parliament back a customs union, swift changes to the political declaration on the future relationship with the EU could be made. |
| “You will have noticed last night that the proposal to reach an agreement on a customs with the EU was lost just by three votes”, Barnier said. | “You will have noticed last night that the proposal to reach an agreement on a customs with the EU was lost just by three votes”, Barnier said. |
| This soft Brexit compromise has been championed as a plan B for leaving the European Union. | This soft Brexit compromise has been championed as a plan B for leaving the European Union. |
| It is based on Norway’s relationship with the EU, which is outside the bloc and the customs union but inside the single market. Under the plan the UK would have to join Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland in the European Free Trade Association (Efta), which would then allow it to participate in the European Economic Area (EEA). | It is based on Norway’s relationship with the EU, which is outside the bloc and the customs union but inside the single market. Under the plan the UK would have to join Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland in the European Free Trade Association (Efta), which would then allow it to participate in the European Economic Area (EEA). |
| The ‘plus’ in this option refers to a temporary customs union with the EU, which would need to be negotiated to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This arrangement would remain in place until the EU and UK agreed a specific trade deal. | The ‘plus’ in this option refers to a temporary customs union with the EU, which would need to be negotiated to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This arrangement would remain in place until the EU and UK agreed a specific trade deal. |
| The option has the advantage of being as close to the EU as possible without full membership, and it would do away with the need for the problematic backstop for Northern Ireland. Like Norway, the UK would be outside the common fisheries and agriculture policies, and would not be subject to the European court of justice. | The option has the advantage of being as close to the EU as possible without full membership, and it would do away with the need for the problematic backstop for Northern Ireland. Like Norway, the UK would be outside the common fisheries and agriculture policies, and would not be subject to the European court of justice. |
| But it crosses a key red line for Brexiters by continuing freedom of movement, one of the preconditions of single market membership. It would also limit the UK's ability to negotiate its own trade deals while a new customs arrangement is under discussion. And it would require continued financial contributions to the EU without an influence, as the UK would no longer have MEPs or a seat on the European Council. It also isn't entirely clear that the UK would be welcomed into Efta. | But it crosses a key red line for Brexiters by continuing freedom of movement, one of the preconditions of single market membership. It would also limit the UK's ability to negotiate its own trade deals while a new customs arrangement is under discussion. And it would require continued financial contributions to the EU without an influence, as the UK would no longer have MEPs or a seat on the European Council. It also isn't entirely clear that the UK would be welcomed into Efta. |
| However, during a cabinet session on Tuesday, the prime minister is also likely to suggest her deal is put in a runoff against an agreement backing a customs union, in an attempt to finally secure ratification for her deal. | However, during a cabinet session on Tuesday, the prime minister is also likely to suggest her deal is put in a runoff against an agreement backing a customs union, in an attempt to finally secure ratification for her deal. |
| Barnier suggested that in either case, the UK could still leave the EU by 22 May to avoid having to hold European elections. | Barnier suggested that in either case, the UK could still leave the EU by 22 May to avoid having to hold European elections. |
| “We’ve always said we can accept a customs union or a relationship along the style of the Norway model,” he said. “The political declaration can accommodate this today.” | “We’ve always said we can accept a customs union or a relationship along the style of the Norway model,” he said. “The political declaration can accommodate this today.” |
| He made clear that in the event of a long extension of article 50, the EU would not open negotiations on the future trade deal, which it has maintained can only happen after the withdrawal agreement is settled. | He made clear that in the event of a long extension of article 50, the EU would not open negotiations on the future trade deal, which it has maintained can only happen after the withdrawal agreement is settled. |
| In the case of a no-deal Brexit, he said he would expect the UK to try to return to the negotiating table a few months later, but “in that case the withdrawal agreement we put on the table at the beginning of this negotiation will be still here: citizens’ rights, Ireland, financial obligations”. | In the case of a no-deal Brexit, he said he would expect the UK to try to return to the negotiating table a few months later, but “in that case the withdrawal agreement we put on the table at the beginning of this negotiation will be still here: citizens’ rights, Ireland, financial obligations”. |
| “During any long extension there will be no renegotiation of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, no, never,” Barnier told an audience at the European Policy Centre event. “There will be no negotiation about the future relations – we cannot, legally speaking, negotiate with a member state about the future relations. It’s as simple as that.” | “During any long extension there will be no renegotiation of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, no, never,” Barnier told an audience at the European Policy Centre event. “There will be no negotiation about the future relations – we cannot, legally speaking, negotiate with a member state about the future relations. It’s as simple as that.” |
| “A lack of deal means a lack of faith, a lack of deal means a rupture in confidence between us”, he said. “And I think we have to have confidence in order to build the future relationship.” | “A lack of deal means a lack of faith, a lack of deal means a rupture in confidence between us”, he said. “And I think we have to have confidence in order to build the future relationship.” |
| Barnier lamented the lack of debate in the UK about its post-Brexit relationship with the EU either during the referendum or in the months after it. “There’s no obligation in leaving the EU to leave the customs union, no obligation to leave the single market. I didn’t see the debate about what are the national interests of the UK.” | Barnier lamented the lack of debate in the UK about its post-Brexit relationship with the EU either during the referendum or in the months after it. “There’s no obligation in leaving the EU to leave the customs union, no obligation to leave the single market. I didn’t see the debate about what are the national interests of the UK.” |
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