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Macron: no-deal still possible despite May's compromise offer Macron: no-deal still possible despite May's compromise offer
(32 minutes later)
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has led other EU leaders in warning that Theresa May’s apparent move to take no deal off the table offers no guarantee that Britain will not crash out of the bloc on 12 April.The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has led other EU leaders in warning that Theresa May’s apparent move to take no deal off the table offers no guarantee that Britain will not crash out of the bloc on 12 April.
The 27 member states have repeatedly insisted that it expects the withdrawal agreement to be ratified or a new “credible plan” to emerge for it to agree to another Brexit delay when leaders meet at a crunch summit in eight days’ time. EU sources said Brussels instead would want to see a “positive majority” in the Commons for a solution before the summit on 10 April, putting the UK at a heightened risk of a no deal.
With the British parliament yet to coalesce around any solution to break the impasse, there is concern in EU capitals that the prime minister, despite her pledge to secure a solution with Jeremy Corbyn, could still arrive at the summit without a clear way forward. The EU27 states have repeatedly insisted that they expect the withdrawal agreement to be ratified or a new “credible plan” to emerge for them to agree to another Brexit delay when leaders meet at a crunch summit in eight days’ time.
But Donald Tusk, the European council president, tweeted a conciliatory message amid the deepened anxiety. “Even if, after today, we don’t know what the end result will be, let us be patient,” he said. With the British parliament yet to coalesce around any solution to break the impasse, there is concern in EU capitals that the prime minister, despite her pledge to secure a solution with the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, could still arrive at the summit without a clear way forward.
In a statement following a seven-hour cabinet meeting, the prime minister said she would be seeking a further short Brexit delay to allow new cross-party talks to come to fruition. Downing Street’s strategy appears to put the UK on a path to an extension past 12 April, the cliff-edge agreed by the EU’s leaders at the recent summit, up to at least 22 May. This leaves open the risk of a no-deal Brexit right on the eve of European elections.
The EU’s leaders, including Macron, reflected their concerns on Tuesday that they were being pushed into agreeing to extend article 50, potentially even beyond 22 May, without the bloc’s conditions having been met. Despite the concerns, Donald Tusk, the European council president, tweeted a conciliatory message amid the deepening anxiety. “Even if, after today, we don’t know what the end result will be, let us be patient,” he said.
The prime minister has previously sought to delay Brexit until 30 June, a demand had rejected at the last EU summit. The UK is being seen as playing a “blame game”, sources said. In a statement after a seven-hour cabinet meeting, May said she would be seeking a further short Brexit delay to allow new cross-party talks to come to fruition.
Macron, among others, is determined to avoid the UK remaining in the EU beyond that point unless British MEPs are elected and there is clear sight of a way out of the Brexit logjam. The EU’s leaders, including Macron, reflected their concerns on Tuesday that they were being pushed into agreeing to extend article 50, and potentially even beyond 22 May, without the bloc’s conditions having been met.
“A long extension, implying the UK takes part in European elections and European institutions, has nothing easy or automatic about it,” Macron said. “I say that again very strongly. Our priority must be the good functioning of the EU and the single market. The EU can’t be held hostage long-term by the resolution of a political crisis in the UK.” The prime minister has previously sought to delay Brexit until 30 June, a demand had rejected at the last EU summit. The UK is being seen as playing a blame game, sources said.
The French president went on: “The three-times rejection of the withdrawal agreement by the House of Commons and the rejection of all alternative plans now puts us on the path of a UK exit without a deal.” Macron, among others, is determined to avoid the UK remaining in the EU beyond that point unless British MEPs are elected and there is a clear view of a way out of the Brexit logjam.
Macron added: “As the European council decided in March, it’s now up to the UK to present a credible alternative plan backed by a majority before 10 April in order to avoid that. If the UK isn’t capable – almost three years after the referendum – of putting forward a solution that gets a majority, it will have decided itself, de facto, to leave without a deal. And we can’t avoid failure for the UK.” “A long extension, implying the UK takes part in European elections and European institutions, has nothing easy or automatic about it,” the president said. “I say that again very strongly. Our priority must be the good functioning of the EU and the single market. The EU can’t be held hostage long-term by the resolution of a political crisis in the UK.
The Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who was visiting Macron in Paris, told reporters that the EU would not accept an extension “as just a recipe for further indecision”. “The three-times rejection of the withdrawal agreement by the House of Commons and the rejection of all alternative plans now puts us on the path of a UK exit without a deal.”
He added: “As the European council decided in March, it’s now up to the UK to present a credible alternative plan backed by a majority before 10 April in order to avoid that. If the UK isn’t capable, almost three years after the referendum, of putting forward a solution that gets a majority, it will have decided itself, de facto, to leave without a deal. And we can’t avoid failure for the UK.”
The Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who was visiting Macron in Paris, told reporters the EU27 would not accept an extension “as just a recipe for further indecision”.
“There seems to be a sense in Westminster that because they voted against no deal, that no deal’s off the table,” he said. “It’s not off the table. A request for extension requires EU unanimity & that is far from guaranteed.”“There seems to be a sense in Westminster that because they voted against no deal, that no deal’s off the table,” he said. “It’s not off the table. A request for extension requires EU unanimity & that is far from guaranteed.”
Earlier in the day, the EU’s chief negotiator had also attempted to build the narrative that no-deal Brexit was “very likely” and becoming more likely by the day after the Commons rejected all the alternative solutions to Theresa May’s deal.
Those comments were echoed by the prime ministers of the Netherlands and Luxembourg. “We have to take into consideration a no-deal possibility - it’s a probability,” the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, told reporters.
“We are no longer looking for an exit, but rather an emergency exit,” added Luxembourg’s Xavier Bettel, who was hosting Rutte for no-deal talks in the duchy.
Speaking in Brussels earlier in the day, Barnier said that it was only a “positive majority” in the Commons in favour of a Brexit plan that could avoid a looming cliff-edge Brexit on 12 April.
“No deal was never our desired or intended scenario,” Barnier told an audience at a thinktank event. “But the EU27 is now prepared. It becomes, day after day, more likely.”
“This is a serious crisis and no one can be pleased with what is happening in the UK currently,” he added.
Three scenarios were set out by the EU official: agreement this week on the prime minister’s deal or a variant of it, no deal, or a long extension to article 50 requiring “a strong justification”.
After Theresa May's statement on Tuesday, she is expected on Wednesday to meet with Jeremy Corbyn to try and agree a way forward that they could both support in the House of Commons. She spelled out that her withdrawal agreement had to be part of the agreement. The agreed plan will then be put to parliament later in the week, and taken to next week’s European Council meeting.After Theresa May's statement on Tuesday, she is expected on Wednesday to meet with Jeremy Corbyn to try and agree a way forward that they could both support in the House of Commons. She spelled out that her withdrawal agreement had to be part of the agreement. The agreed plan will then be put to parliament later in the week, and taken to next week’s European Council meeting.
If they could not, she said, agree a way forward, parliament may be offered a chance to choose between a series of options for the future relationship. She said the government would be bound by what the house decides – but only if Labour was too.If they could not, she said, agree a way forward, parliament may be offered a chance to choose between a series of options for the future relationship. She said the government would be bound by what the house decides – but only if Labour was too.
If the UK parliament or government have significantly changed position, then a lengthy Article 50 extension may be required. EU leaders would decide how long at a summit on this date. Negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested there might be three reasons for the EU to grant a long extension: for a second referendum, a general election, or because parliament wants to again examine the political declaration. But there's no guarantee the EU27 would unanimously agree to this.If the UK parliament or government have significantly changed position, then a lengthy Article 50 extension may be required. EU leaders would decide how long at a summit on this date. Negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested there might be three reasons for the EU to grant a long extension: for a second referendum, a general election, or because parliament wants to again examine the political declaration. But there's no guarantee the EU27 would unanimously agree to this.
If Theresa May's deal is not passed by parliament, then, with no other significant developments, this would be the date by international law that the UK leaves the EU without a deal. However she appears to have ruled out allowing this to happen.If Theresa May's deal is not passed by parliament, then, with no other significant developments, this would be the date by international law that the UK leaves the EU without a deal. However she appears to have ruled out allowing this to happen.
If Theresa May's new proposal does pass parliament, this would be the scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU.If Theresa May's new proposal does pass parliament, this would be the scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU.
Unless there is a further longer extension of article 50, the EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. However, if Brexit has been further delayed, the UK would hold European elections on the Thursday.Unless there is a further longer extension of article 50, the EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. However, if Brexit has been further delayed, the UK would hold European elections on the Thursday.
If Theresa May's deal passes parliament, she is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on 22 May, triggering a contest for the leadership of the Conservative party. There has been some suggestion though that she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October.If Theresa May's deal passes parliament, she is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on 22 May, triggering a contest for the leadership of the Conservative party. There has been some suggestion though that she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October.
Barnier said an extension beyond the end of May, requiring the UK to take part in European parliamentary elections, “would carry significant risks for the EU and therefore strong justification would be needed”. Earlier in the day, the EU’s chief negotiator had also attempted to build the narrative that no-deal Brexit was very likely and becoming more likely by the day after the Commons rejected all the alternative solutions to May’s deal.
He said businesses in the EU had warned Brussels “against the cost of extending uncertainty”. The UK prolonging its status as a member state while still seeking to leave with a negotiated deal “could pose a risk on our decision-making autonomy”. Those comments were echoed by the prime ministers of the Netherlands and Luxembourg. “We have to take into consideration a no-deal possibility – it’s a probability,” the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, told reporters.
“The option of no deal looks very likely,” Barnier later added. “We are no longer looking for an exit, but rather an emergency exit,” added Luxembourg’s Xavier Bettel, who was hosting Rutte for no-deal talks in the duchy.
But for all Barnier’s rhetoric and the claims in EU capitals, sources said that there was immense concern that the 27, on the cusp of European elections, could be seen to have pushed a member state out of the bloc. Speaking in Brussels earlier in the day, Barnier said it was only a “positive majority” in the Commons in favour of a Brexit plan that could avoid a cliff-edge Brexit on 12 April.
“No deal was never our desired or intended scenario,. but the EU27 is now prepared. It becomes, day after day, more likely,” he told an audience at a thinktank event, adding: “This is a serious crisis and no one can be pleased with what is happening in the UK currently.”
Three scenarios were set out by the EU official: agreement this week on May’s deal or a variant of it, no deal, or a long extension to article 50 requiring “a strong justification”.
A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole.A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole.
For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements.For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements.
Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union.Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union.
Jennifer RankinJennifer Rankin
Barnier admitted that the EU’s leaders would have to judge whether it was in their interests to continue to allow Westminster to drag out the process. Barnier said an extension beyond the end of of next month, which would require the UK to take part in European parliamentary elections, “would carry significant risks for the EU and therefore strong justification would be needed”.
“Is it for organising a new referendum? Is it for organising snap elections? Is it because the House of Commons needs time to go in the details of this negotiation of the political declaration? I don’t know,” he said. “We are ready. But my role is to say there is a cost and you have to make a balance between the different costs – the cost of a no-deal by accident, the cost of a deal in longer time or the cost of a long prolongation.” He said businesses in the EU27 had warned Brussels “against the cost of extending uncertainty”. The UK prolonging its status as a member state while still seeking to leave with a negotiated deal “could pose a risk on our decision-making autonomy”.
“The option of no deal looks very likely,” Barnier later added.
BrexitBrexit
European UnionEuropean Union
Michel BarnierMichel Barnier
Article 50Article 50
Foreign policyForeign policy
EuropeEurope
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