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| Local elections: Tories expect heavy losses amid low voter turnout | Local elections: Tories expect heavy losses amid low voter turnout |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Theresa May cast her vote in her Maidenhead constituency on Thursday as the Tories faced the prospect of sweeping losses in council and mayoral elections. | Theresa May cast her vote in her Maidenhead constituency on Thursday as the Tories faced the prospect of sweeping losses in council and mayoral elections. |
| Activists from all the main parties have warned of low turnout, citing voter fatigue and anger at the current state of Westminster politics, but it is the Conservatives in particular who were braced for the heaviest punishment from voters, with gains expected by the Liberal Democrats and Labour. | Activists from all the main parties have warned of low turnout, citing voter fatigue and anger at the current state of Westminster politics, but it is the Conservatives in particular who were braced for the heaviest punishment from voters, with gains expected by the Liberal Democrats and Labour. |
| More than 8,000 seats are up for grabs on 248 English councils and all 11 Northern Irish councils, plus six mayoral posts. | More than 8,000 seats are up for grabs on 248 English councils and all 11 Northern Irish councils, plus six mayoral posts. |
| The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, said it was natural for voters to feel disappointed with the current state of politics. “I agree, I can’t blame them,” he told Sky News. | |
| “It’s frustrating because the Brexit issue has clouded all the other issues. I’d rather people on a local election were voting on how their local council performed … often you will have a hard-working local councillor doing their best knocked out by what’s happening in the national politics.” | |
| Local elections 2019 results: Tories braced for losses as votes are counted – live news | Local elections 2019 results: Tories braced for losses as votes are counted – live news |
| Jonathan Carr-West, the chief executive of the Local Government Information Unit, said turnout could be expected to be as low as a third of the electorate, in a year when polling day does not coincide with another major election. | Jonathan Carr-West, the chief executive of the Local Government Information Unit, said turnout could be expected to be as low as a third of the electorate, in a year when polling day does not coincide with another major election. |
| “However, it is difficult to tell how much election fatigue from the last two years will impact the results,” he said. “Will the fallout of Brexit drive people to the polls? We are hearing that a lot of voters are staying home which could be bad news for the Conservatives. | “However, it is difficult to tell how much election fatigue from the last two years will impact the results,” he said. “Will the fallout of Brexit drive people to the polls? We are hearing that a lot of voters are staying home which could be bad news for the Conservatives. |
| “For the Conservatives anything short of disaster will feel like a reasonable result. They’re predicted to lose hundreds of seats but the consolation could be that the profile of these elections means they shouldn’t lose control of too many councils.” | “For the Conservatives anything short of disaster will feel like a reasonable result. They’re predicted to lose hundreds of seats but the consolation could be that the profile of these elections means they shouldn’t lose control of too many councils.” |
| Carr-West said Labour should expect to take control of Calderdale in West Yorkshire and Trafford in Greater Manchester and predicted that the Lib Dems would gain a fair number of seats. He said Vince Cable’s party “start from too far back to take over many councils though they may have their eyes on Stockport”. | Carr-West said Labour should expect to take control of Calderdale in West Yorkshire and Trafford in Greater Manchester and predicted that the Lib Dems would gain a fair number of seats. He said Vince Cable’s party “start from too far back to take over many councils though they may have their eyes on Stockport”. |
| Senior Tories were privately resigned to a rough night after voting ended at 10pm, with even their own grassroots activists disillusioned by the party’s failure to achieve Brexit, as the prime minister had repeatedly promised. | Senior Tories were privately resigned to a rough night after voting ended at 10pm, with even their own grassroots activists disillusioned by the party’s failure to achieve Brexit, as the prime minister had repeatedly promised. |
| However, several Labour sources have suggested the Tories have exaggerated the extent of their expected losses in order to manage expectations. | However, several Labour sources have suggested the Tories have exaggerated the extent of their expected losses in order to manage expectations. |
| They caution that their average lead in current national polls is around 3% – which would lead to more modest gains and that elections are taking place in areas which would not traditionally see Labour make huge inroads. | They caution that their average lead in current national polls is around 3% – which would lead to more modest gains and that elections are taking place in areas which would not traditionally see Labour make huge inroads. |
| The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, who was in Milton Keynes, urged voters to punish what he called “this failing government” and “vote for change”. | The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, who was in Milton Keynes, urged voters to punish what he called “this failing government” and “vote for change”. |
| The council elections are mostly being held in towns and rural shires and the Tories currently hold more than half the seats up for election. Most of the whole council elections are in the shire districts, meaning disproportionate number of seats to be elected are in Tory heartlands. | The council elections are mostly being held in towns and rural shires and the Tories currently hold more than half the seats up for election. Most of the whole council elections are in the shire districts, meaning disproportionate number of seats to be elected are in Tory heartlands. |
| “We’d consider it a good night if we took Trafford and Calderdale,” one Labour source said. “It would build on solid results from last year and Jeremy Corbyn was in Calderdale campaigning a couple weeks ago. | “We’d consider it a good night if we took Trafford and Calderdale,” one Labour source said. “It would build on solid results from last year and Jeremy Corbyn was in Calderdale campaigning a couple weeks ago. |
| “Winning Trafford would mean we were taking control of the council for the first time in 15 years and no one has held a majority in Calderdale for 20 years.” | “Winning Trafford would mean we were taking control of the council for the first time in 15 years and no one has held a majority in Calderdale for 20 years.” |
| Other councils where Labour are hoping for some highly symbolic gains include Gravesham, which would show the party could make inroads in parts of Kent where Ukip was previously strong. | Other councils where Labour are hoping for some highly symbolic gains include Gravesham, which would show the party could make inroads in parts of Kent where Ukip was previously strong. |
| Labour also hopes to be able to tip the balance in Swindon to no-overall control, a council the Conservatives have held since 2003 and a town referenced by Corbyn in a recent prime minister’s questions. | Labour also hopes to be able to tip the balance in Swindon to no-overall control, a council the Conservatives have held since 2003 and a town referenced by Corbyn in a recent prime minister’s questions. |
| The Lib Dems will hope for the biggest net gains of the night, primarily from the Conservatives, though the party starts from a low base after a calamitous night in 2015 when the elections were held. That vote was held on the same day as the general election and the Lib Dems were punished for their record in coalition with the Conservatives. | The Lib Dems will hope for the biggest net gains of the night, primarily from the Conservatives, though the party starts from a low base after a calamitous night in 2015 when the elections were held. That vote was held on the same day as the general election and the Lib Dems were punished for their record in coalition with the Conservatives. |
| Cable has said the elections are a chance to “send a message to the parties who brought us Brexit” as well as a vote for stronger local services. | Cable has said the elections are a chance to “send a message to the parties who brought us Brexit” as well as a vote for stronger local services. |
| The party gained 75 seats and control of four councils at last year’s local elections and have briefed that gains into three-figures would be a decent showing – though polling experts have predicted substantially more. | The party gained 75 seats and control of four councils at last year’s local elections and have briefed that gains into three-figures would be a decent showing – though polling experts have predicted substantially more. |
| The main goal is to show the party can make more gains than Labour, made easier by the demographics of the seats up for grabs. Their biggest ambition would be to gain control of Chelmsford council and the party also has hopes pinned on Winchester, North Devon and North Norfolk. | The main goal is to show the party can make more gains than Labour, made easier by the demographics of the seats up for grabs. Their biggest ambition would be to gain control of Chelmsford council and the party also has hopes pinned on Winchester, North Devon and North Norfolk. |
| The Tory peer Robert Hayward, a leading polling analyst, has said the Conservatives can expect to lose 800 or more seats as voters punish Theresa May’s administration for the Brexit impasse. Conservative campaigners were encouraged to pursue a “bins not Brexit” approach to doorstep campaigning. | The Tory peer Robert Hayward, a leading polling analyst, has said the Conservatives can expect to lose 800 or more seats as voters punish Theresa May’s administration for the Brexit impasse. Conservative campaigners were encouraged to pursue a “bins not Brexit” approach to doorstep campaigning. |
| What to look out for as local elections results come in | What to look out for as local elections results come in |
| He suggested the Lib Dems were the most likely to benefit, picking up perhaps 500 of those seats. and Labour 300. | He suggested the Lib Dems were the most likely to benefit, picking up perhaps 500 of those seats. and Labour 300. |
| The latter traditionally makes fewer gains in the shires. | The latter traditionally makes fewer gains in the shires. |
| Any losses may be a mere foretaste of the drubbing the Conservatives are braced to receive in next month’s European elections. Recent polls have put Nigel Farage’s Brexit party ahead, with the Tory vote collapsing. | Any losses may be a mere foretaste of the drubbing the Conservatives are braced to receive in next month’s European elections. Recent polls have put Nigel Farage’s Brexit party ahead, with the Tory vote collapsing. |
| The Brexit party is not standing in the local elections, and neither is the other new political party, Change UK, formed of MPs who have broken away from Labour and the Conservatives. | The Brexit party is not standing in the local elections, and neither is the other new political party, Change UK, formed of MPs who have broken away from Labour and the Conservatives. |
| More than 100 English councils will count their results overnight and are expected to declare before 6am on Friday, with the remaining 140 results scheduled to come in throughout Friday. Northern Ireland councils are expecting to take longer. | More than 100 English councils will count their results overnight and are expected to declare before 6am on Friday, with the remaining 140 results scheduled to come in throughout Friday. Northern Ireland councils are expecting to take longer. |
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