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Local elections: Tories expect heavy losses amid low voter turnout Tories brace for losses in local elections amid low voter turnout
(about 2 hours later)
Theresa May cast her vote in her Maidenhead constituency on Thursday as the Tories faced the prospect of sweeping losses in council and mayoral elections. The Conservatives were braced for sweeping losses in local council elections on Friday as party sources predicted anger at the state of national politics and the Brexit impasse would cost them seats across England.
Activists from all the main parties have warned of low turnout, citing voter fatigue and anger at the current state of Westminster politics, but it is the Conservatives in particular who were braced for the heaviest punishment from voters, with gains expected by the Liberal Democrats and Labour. As polls closed on Thursday night, the Lib Dems were predicted to have the best night and hoped to take more seats than expected in Tory-facing areas, perhaps up to 500 in total according to some projections.
More than 8,000 seats are up for grabs on 248 English councils and all 11 Northern Irish councils, plus six mayoral posts. The Lib Dems were hopeful of taking councils in St Albans in Hertfordshire and the Vale of the White Horse in Oxfordshire, a council where it currently holds just nine seats.
The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, said it was natural for voters to feel disappointed with the current state of politics. “I agree, I can’t blame them,” he told Sky News. “A strong Liberal Democrat ground campaign and a Brexit backlash mean we are going to do serious damage to the Tories,” one party source said. However, the Lib Dems are starting from a historically low base after a catastrophic the last time these in 2015, the last time the seats were contested.
“It’s frustrating because the Brexit issue has clouded all the other issues. I’d rather people on a local election were voting on how their local council performed … often you will have a hard-working local councillor doing their best knocked out by what’s happening in the national politics.” Early councils to declare included Sunderland, Chorley and Halton, all Labour holds and Broxborne and Havant, held by the Conservatives.
Local elections 2019 results: Tories braced for losses as votes are counted – live newsLocal elections 2019 results: Tories braced for losses as votes are counted – live news
In Sunderland, Labour had lost nine seats by 1am though locally the party has suffered because of a councillor’s conviction for child abuse.
Labour suffered an early disappointment in Swindon, where it had hoped to tip the balance to no-overall control, in a council the Conservatives have held since 2003.
A crucial result came in a ward engulfed in a bitter row after a councillor quit the party to stand as an independent in protest at Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. The seat fell to the Conservatives, whose candidate beat Labour’s replacement Kate Linnegar, who is also the Labour parliamentary candidate.
“These are a tough set of elections in predominantly shire and rural areas that traditionally favour the Tories, and the mess the government has made of the Brexit negotiations will have hit turnout,” one Labour source said. “But our message of investment in our communities and public services has been well received on the doorstep.”
In total, more than 8,000 seats are up for grabs on 248 English councils and all 11 Northern Irish councils, plus six mayoral posts.
Jonathan Carr-West, the chief executive of the Local Government Information Unit, said turnout could be expected to be as low as a third of the electorate, in a year when polling day does not coincide with another major election.Jonathan Carr-West, the chief executive of the Local Government Information Unit, said turnout could be expected to be as low as a third of the electorate, in a year when polling day does not coincide with another major election.
“However, it is difficult to tell how much election fatigue from the last two years will impact the results,” he said. “Will the fallout of Brexit drive people to the polls? We are hearing that a lot of voters are staying home which could be bad news for the Conservatives. “However, it is difficult to tell how much election fatigue from the last two years will impact the results,” he said. “Will the fallout of Brexit drive people to the polls? We are hearing that a lot of voters are staying home which could be bad news for the Conservatives.”
“For the Conservatives anything short of disaster will feel like a reasonable result. They’re predicted to lose hundreds of seats but the consolation could be that the profile of these elections means they shouldn’t lose control of too many councils.” The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, said it was natural for voters to feel disappointed with the current state of politics. “I agree, I can’t blame them,” he told Sky News.
Carr-West said Labour should expect to take control of Calderdale in West Yorkshire and Trafford in Greater Manchester and predicted that the Lib Dems would gain a fair number of seats. He said Vince Cable’s party “start from too far back to take over many councils though they may have their eyes on Stockport”. “It’s frustrating because the Brexit issue has clouded all the other issues. I’d rather people on a local election were voting on how their local council performed … often you will have a hard-working local councillor doing their best knocked out by what’s happening in the national politics.”
Senior Tories were privately resigned to a rough night after voting ended at 10pm, with even their own grassroots activists disillusioned by the party’s failure to achieve Brexit, as the prime minister had repeatedly promised. Several Labour sources have suggested the Tories may have exaggerated the extent of their expected losses in order to manage expectations.
However, several Labour sources have suggested the Tories have exaggerated the extent of their expected losses in order to manage expectations.
They caution that their average lead in current national polls is around 3% – which would lead to more modest gains and that elections are taking place in areas which would not traditionally see Labour make huge inroads.They caution that their average lead in current national polls is around 3% – which would lead to more modest gains and that elections are taking place in areas which would not traditionally see Labour make huge inroads.
The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, who was in Milton Keynes, urged voters to punish what he called “this failing government” and “vote for change”. “We’d consider it a good night if we took Trafford and Calderdale,” one Labour source said. “It would build on solid results from last year and Jeremy Corbyn was in Calderdale campaigning a couple weeks ago. Winning Trafford would mean we were taking control of the council for the first time in 15 years and no one has held a majority in Calderdale for 20 years.”
The council elections are mostly being held in towns and rural shires and the Tories currently hold more than half the seats up for election. Most of the whole council elections are in the shire districts, meaning disproportionate number of seats to be elected are in Tory heartlands. Lib Dem leader Vince Cable has said the elections were a chance to “send a message to the parties who brought us Brexit” as well as a vote for stronger local services.
“We’d consider it a good night if we took Trafford and Calderdale,” one Labour source said. “It would build on solid results from last year and Jeremy Corbyn was in Calderdale campaigning a couple weeks ago.
“Winning Trafford would mean we were taking control of the council for the first time in 15 years and no one has held a majority in Calderdale for 20 years.”
Other councils where Labour are hoping for some highly symbolic gains include Gravesham, which would show the party could make inroads in parts of Kent where Ukip was previously strong.
Labour also hopes to be able to tip the balance in Swindon to no-overall control, a council the Conservatives have held since 2003 and a town referenced by Corbyn in a recent prime minister’s questions.
The Lib Dems will hope for the biggest net gains of the night, primarily from the Conservatives, though the party starts from a low base after a calamitous night in 2015 when the elections were held. That vote was held on the same day as the general election and the Lib Dems were punished for their record in coalition with the Conservatives.
Cable has said the elections are a chance to “send a message to the parties who brought us Brexit” as well as a vote for stronger local services.
The party gained 75 seats and control of four councils at last year’s local elections and have briefed that gains into three-figures would be a decent showing – though polling experts have predicted substantially more.
The main goal is to show the party can make more gains than Labour, made easier by the demographics of the seats up for grabs. Their biggest ambition would be to gain control of Chelmsford council and the party also has hopes pinned on Winchester, North Devon and North Norfolk.The main goal is to show the party can make more gains than Labour, made easier by the demographics of the seats up for grabs. Their biggest ambition would be to gain control of Chelmsford council and the party also has hopes pinned on Winchester, North Devon and North Norfolk.
The Tory peer Robert Hayward, a leading polling analyst, has said the Conservatives can expect to lose 800 or more seats as voters punish Theresa May’s administration for the Brexit impasse. Conservative campaigners were encouraged to pursue a “bins not Brexit” approach to doorstep campaigning. The Tory peer Robert Hayward, a leading polling analyst, has said the Conservatives can expect to lose 800 or more seats as voters punish Theresa May’s administration for the Brexit impasse.
What to look out for as local elections results come in
He suggested the Lib Dems were the most likely to benefit, picking up perhaps 500 of those seats. and Labour 300.
The latter traditionally makes fewer gains in the shires.
Any losses may be a mere foretaste of the drubbing the Conservatives are braced to receive in next month’s European elections. Recent polls have put Nigel Farage’s Brexit party ahead, with the Tory vote collapsing.
The Brexit party is not standing in the local elections, and neither is the other new political party, Change UK, formed of MPs who have broken away from Labour and the Conservatives.
More than 100 English councils will count their results overnight and are expected to declare before 6am on Friday, with the remaining 140 results scheduled to come in throughout Friday. Northern Ireland councils are expecting to take longer.More than 100 English councils will count their results overnight and are expected to declare before 6am on Friday, with the remaining 140 results scheduled to come in throughout Friday. Northern Ireland councils are expecting to take longer.
Local electionsLocal elections
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