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| Look at the queue to be Tory leader. No-deal Brexit is more likely than ever | Look at the queue to be Tory leader. No-deal Brexit is more likely than ever |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| When it comes to Brexit, all I can think about now are the lyrics to The Windmills of Your Mind: “Like a circle in a spiral / Like a wheel within a wheel / Never ending or beginning …” | When it comes to Brexit, all I can think about now are the lyrics to The Windmills of Your Mind: “Like a circle in a spiral / Like a wheel within a wheel / Never ending or beginning …” |
| The forthcoming Tory leadership contest is just the latest spiral. Every candidate – whether Kit Malthouse or Boris Johnson – will be outlining their cunning Baldrick-like plans to force the European Union to renegotiate the UK’s withdrawal on 31 October. In practical terms that will be nigh on impossible, in view of both the UK parliament’s timetable and the new European commission not being in place until November. What is also being ignored is that the article 50 agreement that Theresa May signed up to with the 31 October extension clearly states in clause 12: “This extension excludes any re-opening of the withdrawal agreement.” | The forthcoming Tory leadership contest is just the latest spiral. Every candidate – whether Kit Malthouse or Boris Johnson – will be outlining their cunning Baldrick-like plans to force the European Union to renegotiate the UK’s withdrawal on 31 October. In practical terms that will be nigh on impossible, in view of both the UK parliament’s timetable and the new European commission not being in place until November. What is also being ignored is that the article 50 agreement that Theresa May signed up to with the 31 October extension clearly states in clause 12: “This extension excludes any re-opening of the withdrawal agreement.” |
| Tory leadership contest odds tracker: who's up and who's down? | Tory leadership contest odds tracker: who's up and who's down? |
| The candidates will also have us believe they can magically fix the parliamentary arithmetic to garner the support required to get any of their plans through the Commons. They will somehow ensure no hard border in Northern Ireland – even though there is no technology available anywhere in the world that can facilitate this – while the World Trade Organization and the EU have no choice but to ensure the integrity of the single market. Then we come to the biggest lie of all, being spread by the Brexit party and Nigel Farage: that the UK can have a “clean Brexit”. This is patently untrue, and Farage – by no means a foolish man – must know this to be the case. The conclusion must therefore be that he has bigger ambitions than merely getting Britain out of the EU. | The candidates will also have us believe they can magically fix the parliamentary arithmetic to garner the support required to get any of their plans through the Commons. They will somehow ensure no hard border in Northern Ireland – even though there is no technology available anywhere in the world that can facilitate this – while the World Trade Organization and the EU have no choice but to ensure the integrity of the single market. Then we come to the biggest lie of all, being spread by the Brexit party and Nigel Farage: that the UK can have a “clean Brexit”. This is patently untrue, and Farage – by no means a foolish man – must know this to be the case. The conclusion must therefore be that he has bigger ambitions than merely getting Britain out of the EU. |
| Farage and his supporters see Brexit as the cloak to disguise their real ambitions to change our country, our culture and our future. He has aligned himself to people at the heart of the populist movements in the US and across Europe, which are set on putting a torch to the old order and its institutions, infrastructure and politics. Out of that chaos he wants to see nothing less than a survivalist economy, a world of rich asset-strippers, rights and equality opposers and climate deniers. | Farage and his supporters see Brexit as the cloak to disguise their real ambitions to change our country, our culture and our future. He has aligned himself to people at the heart of the populist movements in the US and across Europe, which are set on putting a torch to the old order and its institutions, infrastructure and politics. Out of that chaos he wants to see nothing less than a survivalist economy, a world of rich asset-strippers, rights and equality opposers and climate deniers. |
| Yet instead of calling out Farage, the Tory candidates tremble before him. I know from my own campaigning that taking a stand is never easy, and often dangerous, but out-Faraging Farage is a pitiful and craven course of action when the Tory leadership candidates should be focusing on the issues that affect real people’s lives. They should challenge Farage and expose his toxic views on the NHS, schools, rough sleepers, the knife crime epidemic, the pension poverty time bomb, inward investment, foreign policy and the climate crisis. | Yet instead of calling out Farage, the Tory candidates tremble before him. I know from my own campaigning that taking a stand is never easy, and often dangerous, but out-Faraging Farage is a pitiful and craven course of action when the Tory leadership candidates should be focusing on the issues that affect real people’s lives. They should challenge Farage and expose his toxic views on the NHS, schools, rough sleepers, the knife crime epidemic, the pension poverty time bomb, inward investment, foreign policy and the climate crisis. |
| The environment secretary’s campaign plan was knocked off course by revelations about drug-taking. | The environment secretary’s campaign plan was knocked off course by revelations about drug-taking. |
| He has sought to regain his place as the leading ‘Stop Boris’ with a series of policy pledges, from a new social insurance to pay for social care, to changing human rights law to prevent service personnel being pursued over historical crimes. He has better Brexiter credentials than Hunt, is liked by the moderate wing of the party, and is a better orator than almost any other candidate. | He has sought to regain his place as the leading ‘Stop Boris’ with a series of policy pledges, from a new social insurance to pay for social care, to changing human rights law to prevent service personnel being pursued over historical crimes. He has better Brexiter credentials than Hunt, is liked by the moderate wing of the party, and is a better orator than almost any other candidate. |
| He has played up his senior role in the Vote Leave campaign, saying he had ‘led from the front’ because he believed it was ‘the right thing to do, at a critical moment in our history’. | He has played up his senior role in the Vote Leave campaign, saying he had ‘led from the front’ because he believed it was ‘the right thing to do, at a critical moment in our history’. |
| On Brexit he has publicly discussed the idea of extending the Brexit deadline slightly beyond 31 October, if needed to finalise a deal. Has not completely ruled out a no-deal Brexit. | On Brexit he has publicly discussed the idea of extending the Brexit deadline slightly beyond 31 October, if needed to finalise a deal. Has not completely ruled out a no-deal Brexit. |
| He received 37 votes in the first round, 41 in the second, and 51 in the third round, placing him third each time. | |
| The foreign secretary has made the case that he is the most serious and experienced would-be leader, in an apparent rebuke to his main rival, Boris Johnson. | The foreign secretary has made the case that he is the most serious and experienced would-be leader, in an apparent rebuke to his main rival, Boris Johnson. |
| On Brexit he believes a new deal is possible by 31 October, and would send a new, cross-party negotiating team to Brussels. Would countenance leaving EU without a deal, but has warned that could lead to a confidence vote and potentially an election. | On Brexit he believes a new deal is possible by 31 October, and would send a new, cross-party negotiating team to Brussels. Would countenance leaving EU without a deal, but has warned that could lead to a confidence vote and potentially an election. |
| Hunt’s problem is he is seen as the continuity candidate, the safe pair of hands, when colleagues are starting to see the attraction of a new style. | Hunt’s problem is he is seen as the continuity candidate, the safe pair of hands, when colleagues are starting to see the attraction of a new style. |
| He received 43 votes in the first round and 46 votes in the second round. He continued to be in second place in the third round with 54 votes. | |
| Javid struggled to define himself in the first days of the campaign, not a fresh face, not a safe pair of hands, or a true Brexit believer. But his campaign picked up, with the endorsement of popular Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, a polished leadership video telling the moving story of his background, and a lively launch speech. It was still only enough to place him fifth, though. | Javid struggled to define himself in the first days of the campaign, not a fresh face, not a safe pair of hands, or a true Brexit believer. But his campaign picked up, with the endorsement of popular Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, a polished leadership video telling the moving story of his background, and a lively launch speech. It was still only enough to place him fifth, though. |
| On Brexit, Javid says he wants to leave with a deal, but has talked down the idea of another extension and would be prepared to opt for no deal. | On Brexit, Javid says he wants to leave with a deal, but has talked down the idea of another extension and would be prepared to opt for no deal. |
| He is expected to make a new push to define himself as the change candidate who can talk to Tory voters in new places – though he may also be tempted to drop out to tuck in behind one of the frontrunners. It is hard to see how he could make it into the final two from this position. | He is expected to make a new push to define himself as the change candidate who can talk to Tory voters in new places – though he may also be tempted to drop out to tuck in behind one of the frontrunners. It is hard to see how he could make it into the final two from this position. |
| He received 23 votes in the first round, 33 votes in the second, and 38 in the third. | |
| The former foreign secretary already has enough support to progress through to the members’ ballot. All Johnson needs to do is sit tight, keep his MPs sweet and try not to ruin it for himself. He has kept a low profile in the media and stayed in the tearooms and in his office, methodically talking round colleagues. His team know that one negative news cycle because of an off-guard comment could see his star plummet – and Johnson is more prone to those than most. | The former foreign secretary already has enough support to progress through to the members’ ballot. All Johnson needs to do is sit tight, keep his MPs sweet and try not to ruin it for himself. He has kept a low profile in the media and stayed in the tearooms and in his office, methodically talking round colleagues. His team know that one negative news cycle because of an off-guard comment could see his star plummet – and Johnson is more prone to those than most. |
| On Brexit he has promised the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, come what may, even without a deal if a new agreement cannot be reached in time. | On Brexit he has promised the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, come what may, even without a deal if a new agreement cannot be reached in time. |
| Johnson won the first round with 114 votes, and the second round with 126 votes. He won the third round with 143 votes. | |
| Farage’s victory mean the Tories will be led by a Brexiteer, not a compromiser | Martha Gill | Farage’s victory mean the Tories will be led by a Brexiteer, not a compromiser | Martha Gill |
| The very fact Boris Johnson is the favourite to succeed May says everything about how vacuous and morally bankrupt our politics has become. Imagine any other job, with a six-figure salary, where a candidate who was sacked twice for lying – first as a journalist from the Times and then as a politician by Michael Howard – would have made it to the final shortlist. In May’s speech last week she pointed out that compromise is not a dirty word and that the Tory party should be decent and moderate. Given his promises about Brexit – out on 31 October, deal or no deal – Johnson’s bid for the job is incompatible with all such notions. | The very fact Boris Johnson is the favourite to succeed May says everything about how vacuous and morally bankrupt our politics has become. Imagine any other job, with a six-figure salary, where a candidate who was sacked twice for lying – first as a journalist from the Times and then as a politician by Michael Howard – would have made it to the final shortlist. In May’s speech last week she pointed out that compromise is not a dirty word and that the Tory party should be decent and moderate. Given his promises about Brexit – out on 31 October, deal or no deal – Johnson’s bid for the job is incompatible with all such notions. |
| Vince Cable has talked about forming a grand alliance of remain-supporting parties to oppose Brexit, and if he manages to succeed in that objective before he steps down as leader of the Liberal Democrats, then he will have done us all a great service. But the grim reality is that with so many unscrupulous politicians so close to taking the leadership of the Conservative party, and the office of prime minister, a no-deal Brexit seems more likely than ever before. | Vince Cable has talked about forming a grand alliance of remain-supporting parties to oppose Brexit, and if he manages to succeed in that objective before he steps down as leader of the Liberal Democrats, then he will have done us all a great service. But the grim reality is that with so many unscrupulous politicians so close to taking the leadership of the Conservative party, and the office of prime minister, a no-deal Brexit seems more likely than ever before. |
| They say with addictions such as alcoholism that it’s necessary to hit rock bottom before recovery is possible, and maybe that will be true of Brexit too. A Johnson premiership – with Farage at home and Donald Trump abroad as his allies – will represent rock bottom for all of us. Let no one be in any doubt about how very long recovery would take, and how painful it would be. | They say with addictions such as alcoholism that it’s necessary to hit rock bottom before recovery is possible, and maybe that will be true of Brexit too. A Johnson premiership – with Farage at home and Donald Trump abroad as his allies – will represent rock bottom for all of us. Let no one be in any doubt about how very long recovery would take, and how painful it would be. |
| • Gina Miller is a transparency and civil rights campaigner and the founder of Remain United | • Gina Miller is a transparency and civil rights campaigner and the founder of Remain United |
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